LATEST TRENDS A difficult 2012 ahead but volumes should hold up well The increasing economic turmoil is having consequences for fish consumption, impacting demand in the short term and supply in the medium term. But it is maybe worth remembering the impact of the previous crisis in 2008, when trade values contracted during later part of the year, throughout 2009 and into early 2010. However, volumes held up quite well with a reduction in 2009 of global traded volumes for fish of less than 1%. The reason, of course, is that fish produced will come to market, but at the right price. The supply effect is more complex with fish farmers reducing planned production if prices get too low. Capture fisheries are normally more energy intensive, with the price of oil often being the determining cost factor, in addition to product price considerations. We are likely to see a similar scenario during 2012 with a strong consumer focus on value driving retailers, traders and processors all to demand lower prices. As usual, the producers will bear the brunt but there will be new pressure to increase efficiencies throughout the value-chain. One likely effect is more mergers among processors and fish farmers. 2012, therefore, is expected to be challenging as operators adjust to harsh realities with trade finance and insurance also becoming more difficult to obtain. It still remains to be seen how the emerging markets will be impacted; not all markets will be affected in the same way and during the previous difficulties most emerging markets continued to show strong growth in both consumption and imports. Issue 12/2011 December 2011 INDEX FOR PRICES Groundfish 9 Flatfish 9 Tuna 10 Small Pelagics 10 Cephalopods 11 Crustaceans 12 Bivalves 13 Salmon 13 Trout 14 Freshwater fish 14 Non Traditional Species 15 Seabass-Seabream- Meagre 15 The European Fish Price Report, based on information supplied by industry correspondents, aims to provide guidance on broad price trends. Price information is indicative and should be used only for forecasting medium- and long-term trends. FAO is not responsible for any errors or omissions. Season’s greetings from GLOBEFISH Staff
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LATEST TRENDS
A difficult 2012 ahead but volumes should hold up well
The increasing economic turmoil is having consequences for fish
consumption, impacting demand in the short term and supply in the medium term. But it is maybe worth remembering the impact of the
previous crisis in 2008, when trade values contracted during later part of the year, throughout 2009 and into early 2010. However, volumes held up quite well with a reduction in 2009 of global traded
volumes for fish of less than 1%. The reason, of course, is that fish produced will come to market, but at the right price. The supply
effect is more complex with fish farmers reducing planned production if prices get too low. Capture fisheries are normally more energy intensive, with the price of oil often being the determining cost factor,
in addition to product price considerations.
We are likely to see a similar scenario during 2012 with a strong consumer focus on value driving retailers, traders and processors all to demand lower prices. As usual, the producers will bear the brunt
but there will be new pressure to increase efficiencies throughout the value-chain. One likely effect is more mergers among processors and
fish farmers.
2012, therefore, is expected to be challenging as operators adjust to
harsh realities with trade finance and insurance also becoming more difficult to obtain. It still remains to be seen how the emerging
markets will be impacted; not all markets will be affected in the same way and during the previous difficulties most emerging markets
continued to show strong growth in both consumption and imports.
Issue 12/2011 December 2011
INDEX FOR PRICES
Groundfish 9
Flatfish 9
Tuna 10
Small Pelagics 10
Cephalopods 11
Crustaceans 12
Bivalves 13
Salmon 13
Trout 14
Freshwater fish 14
Non Traditional
Species 15
Seabass-Seabream-
Meagre 15
The European Fish Price Report, based on information supplied by
industry correspondents, aims to provide guidance on broad price trends.
Price information is indicative and should be used only for forecasting
medium- and long-term trends. FAO is not responsible for any errors or omissions.
Season’s greetings from
GLOBEFISH Staff
2
2011: China 10 years in the WTO
China, the world’s largest fish producer and fish exporter, is celebrating its 10 year anniversary as a member of the WTO. It is important to recall that the WTO sets the
overall framework for all international trade with specific rules on import tariffs, subsidies and the way quality and safety standards are set. The latter are particularly important for fish as import requirements on quality and safety have become the
determining factor in whether a country or a company is allowed to export to any single market.
For China, WTO membership has given it a more stable trade environment for its exports, at the same time forcing it to reduce import tariffs on a number of products,
including fish. As a result, China is importing increasing amounts of fish targeted at domestic consumption, in addition to the large quantities imported for its processing
industry and destined mostly for re-exports. EU-Morocco agreements to end
On 14 December, the European Parliament rejected a proposed extension of the EU-
Morocco fisheries agreement, saying that it was not clear that the people of Western Sahara would benefit from the deal. The current protocol will cease immediately. The EU has been paying EUR 36.1 million annually to Rabat in exchange for 119 licenses
to fish in Moroccan waters, 100 of which belong to Spanish ships. Morocco has now ordered EU vessels to leave Moroccan waters.
And Mauritania...
The negotiations to renew the fishing agreement between the EU and Mauritania have stalled because of disagreement over compensation to be paid by the EU to
Mauritania. The present agreement will expire in July 2012.
GROUNDFISH
Following the preliminary
announcement of TACs in September, the Council of Fisheries Ministers in the EU will
meet on 15-16 December to finalise the TACs for all species.
Spain is particularly concerned about the proposed 11% reduction in the Gran Sol hake quota.
At the beginning of December a
new agreement was reached between the European Union and Norway for the management of shared fish stocks in the North Sea, Skagerrak and
Kattegat for 2012. TACs for the various whitefish stocks were also set. While there is still cause for concern about the threat of reductions in the number of days fleets can
go to sea, quotas for 2012 for haddock, plaice and whiting will go up by 15%, and the
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North Sea cod quota will decrease by only 1% to 26 475 tonnes. However, the ‘catch quota’ scheme will continue in 2012, giving a further 12% extra cod above the quota
to those fishermen participating in the scheme. The North Sea saithe quota will go down by 15% to 79 320 tonnes.
The EU and Norway will discuss a discard ban for these areas in 2012.
Figures provided by the Russian Federal Fisheries Agency show that fishermen caught 368 300 tonnes of cod in 2011, up by 10% compared with the same period last year.
Most of the catches came from the Northern Fisheries Basin, where almost all of the quota was caught.
In the USA, the Alaska pollock quota has been reduced slightly from previous recommendations and will be set at 1.2 million tonnes. The reduction makes way for
an increase in the cod quota in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. According to the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, the Alaska pollock fishery, the world’s largest sustainable fishery, has been certified by Global Trust as conforming to the FAO
guidelines for certification of marine capture fisheries.
The Norwegian North East Arctic cod and haddock fisheries have gained MSC certification. In 2012 the expected 340 000 tonnes of cod and 153 000 tonnes of haddock will be entitled to use the MSC eco-Label. The certification includes the
fisheries in the Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zone, from mid-Norway and northwards along the coast and into the Barents Sea.
FLATFISH
According to an FIS.com Market Report, incoming volumes of turbot in Spain rose
123% during the second week of December, after a rise of 31% the previous week. This is an increase of 35% compared with the same period last year. As supply increased, prices for all sizes declined. The price of small size turbot was below the
average prices reported so far, but prices of medium and large sizes were higher.
TUNA
The flooding in Bangkok did not significantly reduce canned tuna production levels during the
month of November. This coupled with much reduced deliveries of
raw material to the Thai market resulted in an increase in the price of raw material from USD 1 850 to
USD 1 950 per tonne for main size skipjack. Actual deliveries of raw
material during November to Thailand were less than 30 000 tonnes, far less than the average
60 000 tonnes normally delivered. Lower deliveries coupled with higher than expected production caused raw material inventories to decline to less than 30 000
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tonnes, equivalent to about 30 days production requirements or about half of normal levels.
The market is expected to remain firm as major fishing fleets operating in the
Western and Central Pacific are unable to fish in some of the more productive fishing grounds as few fishing days remain available from the PNA countries. The Solomon Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu have already closed their fishing grounds from 20
November until 1 January 2012.
Fishing in the Eastern Tropical Pacific was fair with prices remaining stable at USD 1 900 to USD 1 950 per tonne for main size skipjack delivered to Manta, roughly equivalent to the price of tuna in Bangkok. Unless the price increases in Ecuador,
there will be little, if any, raw material flowing to that market from the Western and Central Pacific. This is due to higher freight costs from the Western Pacific to Ecuador
than to Bangkok. Fishing conditions were mediocre in the Indian Ocean with little movement in prices
for raw material. Main size skipjack sold for about EUR 1 200 per tonne in the Seychelles. Yellowfin 10 kg up sold for EUR 1 800 in that market.
West Africa continued to be the lowest value raw material market with skipjack at EUR 1 100/tonne ex vessel Abidjan.
In Spain, despite low raw material inventories, skipjack pricing remained steady at EUR 1 200 per tonne and yellowfin 10 kg/up at EUR 1 950 per tonne whereas the
price of yellowfin 10 kg/up in Italy was EUR 2 150. Pricing for cooked loins continued firm following the raw material market.
SMALL PELAGICS
At the same time as the agreement on groundfish TACs, the EU and Norway set TACs
for pelagic species. The TAC for North Sea herring was doubled for 2012 and has been set at 405 000 tonnes following scientific advice. For herring and sprat in the
Skagerrak and Kattegat, the TACs have been set at 45 000 tonnes and 52 000 tonnes respectively.
The TAC for mackerel will be set after the negotiations with Iceland and the Faroe Islands.
In Denmark, sprat landings reported last week were 5 118 tonnes, down from 7 742 tonnes the week before. This reduction in landings is partly because of bad weather
conditions. In Iceland, fishing for local herring is almost over with a total catch of 44 368 tonnes
against a 46 833 tonnes quota. Capelin fishing is now the main focus but weather conditions are complicating fishing activities.
Fishing for spring herring in Norway is coming to an end as vessels are reaching the quota limits. The Ministry for Fisheries announced that the Norwegian fishing for
capelin in the Barents Sea will open on 23 January.
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Norway’s exports of small pelagic species rose by 30% in November compared with the same month last year. Herring exports were up 4% whereas the value of
Norway’s mackerel shipments rose 75%. Overall for the year, Norway’s small pelagic exports were up 15%.
Prices for herring are extremely high at the moment with strong demand for herring fillets in Germany and Poland.
CEPHALOPODS
The winter season for octopus in Morocco opened on 14 November
and will last for four and a half months. The TAC for octopus was
set at 21 000 tonnes. The actual length of the season may be revised depending on assessments
of biological indicators made during the course of the fishery.
After a two month ban of cephalopod fishing activities in
Mauritania for the European fleet, the season was opened again on 1 December. The next biological stop will be between
May and June next year. In South Africa, the local squid fishery opened on 23 November. Usually the season
starts with good catches but this year landings have been poor, possibly because winter weather conditions have persisted longer than usual. Water temperatures have
also not dropped sufficiently yet to encourage spawning, giving rise to concern for recruitment for the next season. Prices have hardly increased and trading is almost at a standstill.
CRUSTACEANS
In Canada, the Fisheries Management Branch of DAFF
announced the new recreational season for West Coast rock
lobster. The season started on 11 November and will close on 15 January 2012.
Crab and lobster prices are
increasing as a consequence of poor weather in Ireland and difficult fishing conditions. This
situation may lead to high prices
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at the end of the year as demand increases. Demand for the brown
crab, Cancer pagurus, is growing as buyers seek to increase their
stocks for the end of the year.
SHRIMP
According to Infofish Trade News, the seasonal demand for shrimp is showing signs of
improving as retailers are procuring products for the December/January sales. The market is still price sensitive, which will favour sales of vannamei and other shrimp
species that are in the lower priced categories. The flooding in Thailand is expected to have a negative impact on shrimp production,
particularly from the beginning of 2012. An estimated 10 billion cubic metres of fresh water poured into the Gulf of Thailand, diluting the salt water, which may affect the
next shrimp farming season starting in April/May next year. The EU has withdrawn its mandatory 20% testing of aquaculture products exported
from Bangladesh from mid November. Frozen farmed shrimp products were the most affected by this ban.
In the recent Coldwater Prawn Forum, held late November in London, the debate focused on how to add value in a market increasingly dominated by farmed tropical
shrimp. With catches forecast to decline over the next few years, interventions focused on how to reposition coldwater prawns as a premium product, the use of
certification and branding, and improving communication to consumers as well as to the trade.
BIVALVES
French Bouchot, Mediterranean
rope, Irish and Dutch mussels are now well represented in the French market. From early
December, Bouchot and Dutch mussels have featured in
promotional catalogues. Oyster prices are expected to rise by an estimated 15-30% as production
has dropped.
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SALMON
Demand has been strong thanks to the low prices pushing quotations somewhat higher in November and early December but ample supplies from Norway have now
stabilised prices with a softening for some sizes. Recent bad weather in Scotland has also limited supplies. For this reason prices should firm over the next few weeks.
Norwegian export statistics for farmed Atlantic salmon for the
first 11 months of 2011 show a 6% increase in volume over 2010 to 746 600 tonnes. However, a
reduction in average export prices from NOK 39.54/kg to NOK
35.47/kg (- 11.5%) caused a fall in the value of total salmon exports to NOK 26.5 billion, or
5%.
Most of Norway’s traditional markets showed increases in their salmon purchases during 2011 including the EU market, which grew by 4.8%. France, the largest single market, was also positive whereas Poland, home of the processing industry, held back
because of the high prices earlier this year. Shipments to Poland during the month of November, however, were strong.
The US market, in contrast, was strongly negative for Norway because of the return of Chile as the main supplier to this market. China’s purchases from Norway were almost
halved during 2011 as new rigid inspection procedures slow down fresh shipments.
Of the emerging markets, Viet Nam has shown tremendous growth, buying 17 200 tonnes from Norway alone, or 150% above 2010 levels for the same 11 month period. The Japanese market has also increased its imports from Norway.
Norway’s exports of value-added salmon products dropped during 2011 with negative
figures for both fresh and frozen fillets, and for smoked salmon. To some extent this is a reflection of the high prices of salmon during the early part of the year but it also
shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult to produce labour-intensive products in a high-cost country such as Norway.
TROUT
Norway’s exports of trout continue to fall with volumes shipped during
2011 down 4% on 2010 to 34 300 tonnes. Average export prices were
also down almost 8%. 50% of Norway’s trout exports go to the Russian market and only 12% to the
EU.
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FRESHWATER FISH
Freshwater fish prices have dropped because of the start of Christmas sales.
SEABASS/SEABREAM
The market for bass and bream is feeling the effects of the economic
crisis. Although a large part of sales are consumed at home, the restaurant trade is feeling the
pressure as clients turn to cheaper species, or to non-fish
dishes. Prices have been weakening,
especially for smaller sizes as many producers are facing tight
liquidity and are forced to harvest early. During December large volumes are imported and consumed by the traditional consumer countries, led by
Italy, but with no price increases so far. The question is more what will happen in 2012. With finance from Southern European banks now being tight, most producers
are likely to be cautious in their production goals during 2012. The Turkish situation is one to monitor; the domestic market is strong and most producers are in a position to increase output in 2012, but this will have negative consequences for producers in
other countries. In general though, prices are expected to firm until mid-year when the 2012 generation of fish reaches market size.
All rights reserved. No part of FAO/GLOBEFISH European Fish Price Report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means
(electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise), without prior permission. Requests for use of this material (including purpose and extent) should be addressed to:
GLOBEFISH - Fisheries and Aquaculture Department - Food and Agriculture Organization, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy.
The European Fish Price Report is a monthly GLOBEFISH publication,
prepared by Karine Boisset, Hilary Cochrane, José Estors Carballo and Audun Lem.
The December issue was produced with the help of Turan Rahimzadeh
It can be ordered from the FISH INFONetwork: FAO GLOBEFISH (Network coordinator) Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
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