Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011 More insight, better decisions…. Seabury Maritime Cargo Advisory
May 28, 2015
Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011
More insight, better decisions….
Seabury Maritime Cargo Advisory
1Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011
Agenda
Seabury Cargo Advisory
Global ocean database
Sample graphs related to the maritime industry
2Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011
Introduction Seabury Group
Founded in 1995, Seabury provides management
consulting, investment banking and corporate reorganization
advisory services
Seabury has a vast range of expertise in:
- Strategy consulting and business planning
- Operational improvement (e.g., cost reduction, revenue
boosting, contract negotiations & outsourcing)
- Network and alliance optimization; fleet selection,
acquisition and financing in the aviation industry
- Investment and recapitalization
With significant market share, Seabury is the main
aviation restructuring advisor and an important factor in
strategic (M&A) and financing activities
Seabury is a leading consulting firm in the air cargo
industry with a dedicated team and dozens of industry leaders
among its client base
Seabury Maritime Advisors is a global merchant banking
and advisory firm providing expert investment banking, M&A,
recapitalization / restructuring and strategic advisory services
Together with senior executives from the maritime
industry, a best-in-class ocean database has been developed
and tested
With over 175 professionals, Seabury Group is one of the largest global advisory practice in
the aviation industry
Cargo &
Logistics
Fleet &
Network
(Air)ports &
Ancillary
Businesses
Maintenance,
Repair &
Overhaul
Investors &
Financiers
Seabury
Group
Commercial &
Revenue
Management
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What makes Seabury different?A single industry focus with a unique combination of expertise
Focused strategy
consultants
Comprised
predominantly of staff
from leading strategy
consulting firms
Innovative thinking
and rigorous analytics
to develop pragmatic
solutions
Extensive strategic
and operational
experience with
excellent project
management skills
Leading cargo
specialists
Former airline cargo
staff and experts from
specialist consulting
companies
Fully focused and
industry-experienced
teams that hit the
ground running
Knowledge of local
markets globally and
experience with a
wide range of
business models
Former industry
executives
Industry leaders from
major airlines and
suppliers
Deep understanding of
challenges presented
by significant
operational change
Sensitivity to the
complexity of an
organization
Experienced
investment bankers
Advisors from top-tier
financial institutions
Extensive knowledge
of domestic and
foreign strategic
situations
Experience with debt
and equity capital
markets
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Key reasons to work with SeaburySeabury combines leading cargo databases, strong strategy consulting, and extensive
experience in long-term forecasting and strategy development
With over 200 professionals, Seabury is one of the largest global advisory practice
dedicated to the transportation industry
We have dedicated cargo & logistics division, led by professionals with decades of
hands-on industry management and consulting experience
Our consulting is underpinned by the world’s leading industry databases, including
comprehensive air and sea cargo demand and supply databases and forecasts
We have extensive experience performing long-term forecasts, scenario analysis and
strategy development for carriers, ports and forwarders around the world
Seabury is a strategic advisory firm, not just a market research provider
Why work with Seabury?
A
B
C
D
E
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Agenda
Seabury Cargo Advisory
Global ocean database
Sample graphs related to the maritime industry
6Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011
Global Ocean DatabaseSeabury’s Ocean Database provides all relevant indicators for the maritime industry
*Seabury forecast
Source: Seabury Global Ocean Database
Covering worldwide ocean flows…
…with an exceptional high level of data granularity
Global perishable shipments
Seasonality of Aircos and Christmas articles from
Guangzhou to Europe
TEU (K)
Extensive coverage High granularity
Imports and exports of 200
countries, covering ~95% of
international ocean trade
World ocean trade separated
in containerized and non-
containerized (bulk/liquid)
trade, measured in weight,
value and number of ocean
TEU per trade lane
Drill-down available to 2,000
individual commodities
Proprietary classification of
2,000 commodities in 70
industries and 12 sectors
Extensive and historical yearly
data available from 2000
(availability depends on
reporting country)
Ocean weights (tonnage) have
been converted into TEU
based on:
Specific stuffing factors for all
2000 commodities
Stuffing factors per container
type 20’ and 40’
Equipment (20’/40’ split) per
commodity per trade lane
Containerization ratio (split
between container, dry bulk,
liquid) based on:
Exact containerization
percentages for all 2000
commodity types
Specification of
containerization split per trade
lane
Tons (M)
5%
15%
0%
80
40
120
0
10*0908070605040302
-5%
10%
YoY growth
Containerized
Bulk
Containerized growth
200920082007
4
3
2
1
0
2010
AircosChristmas articles
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What makes Seabury’s Databases unique?The combination of the below features result in the most comprehensive and reliable trade
database currently available in the market
Online access to data
analysis tool (via Cognos
software)
Data can be distributed in
every regular database
format
User-friendly
The data filtering
options allowing
multiple types of
analysis
Extensive
Global coverage of air and
ocean data
Details per country,
commodity or industry per
month
Comparing and
investing in regional
data sources is not
necessary anymore
Reliable
Usage of multiple raw
data sources (allowing
cross- checking of data)
Comprehensive
methodology for data
cleaning and processing
Up-to-date
Monthly data releases
with a minimal delay
For China, Europe and
US the delay is only 4 to
6 weeks
Examine the latest
trade developments
on a monthly basis
High quality data in
weight, value and
TEU
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Our data can support your businessSeabury's databases will give clients in the logistic arena more insight to make better
commercial and strategic decisions, such as…
Current share of worldwide market and individual trade lanes
Identify and target potential segments or regions
Support of contract / tender negotiations
Sales &
Marketing
Determine future market size in tons, total value carried and TEU
Focus on niche commodities or countries
Invest in terminals, logistic or port facilities
Strategy
Development
Manage volatile market situations
Anticipate on air - sea shift developments within commodity groups
Forecast equipment and trade imbalances
Business
Planning
Reefer product development and marketing
Assess Break-bulk conversion opportunities
Development of specific market combinations (e.g. Oil & Gas)
Product
Development
Theme Examples of decision criteria
Optimize equipment (re)usage
Support of hub developments, feeder services, and inland networks
Optimal vessel size, type and service rotation
Operations
Development
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Added value of Seabury’s ocean trade intelligence Seabury’s maritime databases do not only assist with determining market share but more
importantly with the next steps (the implementation stage) in strategic planning
• Determine which African
countries to focus on
• Select which
commodities/industries to
focus on
• Determine the desired
network coverage
Where are we now?
Seabury Market
Intelligence
Organizational
task
Where do we want to be?
How do we get there?
How do we measure progress?
• Does our volumes grow
faster than the
country/market growth?
• Revenue / volume
performance
• Are we responding to the
latest developments in the
market?
• Determine market size per
country (not per port)
• Calculate industry sector
performance (eg. chemicals
or automotive)
• Compare multiple years
(historically)
• Study an individual market
for discussion with sales
teams/country management
• Find concrete examples to
build business cases for
planning and investment
• Create first-mover
advantages
• Combine market figures with
performance
• Continuous analysis of the
latest trade data to signal
trends
Strategic planning process
• In which areas regions are
we strong?*
• In which industries do we
perform above market
average?
• How is our performance
compared to competition?
Company wishes to increase
its presence in the African
market
Continuously measuring
performance and targets
Organization is currently
focusing on the large trades
• Calculate fastest growing
countries in last 5 years
• Assess drivers behind
growth. Consumer goods?
Raw Materials, Construction
materials
• Determine whether growth is
sustainable or temporary
1 2 3 4
* Organizational task where Seabury’s Market Intelligence can provide more insights
• Steer sales force
(campaign management)
• Make the right Investment
decisions
• Grow faster than market
• Improve country coverage
Increasing presence in East
Africa would improve its
position in Africa
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How to Log-inOnline analysis tool from Cognos is the leading Business Intelligence software provider
Cognos online login
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Agenda
Seabury Cargo Advisory
Global ocean database
Sample graphs related to the maritime industry
12Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011
The growing importance/dependence of Europe on China
03
41%
06
46%
38%
04 0502
32%
01
43%
35%
28%
15
14
0
09 10 12 13
43%
1108
20
44%
TEU
(million)
45%
07 10*
43%
44%
10
5
43%
Imports from China
Imports from rest of the world
TEU
(million)
10*
14%
08
12%
8%
10
11
19%13%
21%
02
19%
05 1001
11%
1204 13 14
5
10%
07 09
15
18%
03
0
20%14%
20
06
16%
Exports to China
Exports to Rest of the world
80%
200%
Seabury Forecast
Yearly European imports Yearly European exports
The share of European imports from China will approach the 50% in upcoming 5 years. The European
export share to China grows faster than imports but the impact is smaller
Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database, Seabury’s global ocean forecast
21%
7%
47%
26%
Seabury ActualsSeabury ForecastSeabury Actuals
* Actual 2010 (YTD September)
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North East Asia exports to EU South East Asia exports to US
Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database
0,0
Japan
-32%
-7%
-13%
TaiwanKorea S
-9%
China
+ HKG
TEU
(million)
0,4
0,2
5,0
5,2
4,8
4,6
4,4
4,2
4,0
2010 YTD Sep
2009 YTD Sep
2008 YTD Sep
Asian exports: several countries approach the 2008 levels,
Vietnam is fastest growing export country in the region
TEU
(x 1,000)
5
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Vietnam
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Cambodia
janjanjanjan oct
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Seasonality of Vietnam exports to EUThe peak for Vietnam exports lies in Q1 which make these volumes good alternative to
replace the lower volumes from China due to Chinese Lunar festival
Source: Seabury Global Ocean Database
a
Construction
materials
Fish, Frozen
j
Footwear &
Clothing
Coffee & tea
TEU
(x 1,000)
20
0
35
10
15
25
30
5Other
m jfjdnosajjmamfjdnosajjmamfjdn
Tableware
sajjmam oj am
Furniture
Packaging goods
(plastic bags)
sf
+7%
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Chinese exports to India: Industries
Chinese monthly containerized exports to India
Source: Seabury’s China Ocean Database
The Chinese export share of consumer goods increased rapidly in last 7 quarters
High Technology
Consumer personal &
Household goods
Machinery parts
Sep2009
30%30%
26%
26%
15%
2010
Land Vehicles & Parts
Consumer Fashion Goods
Capital Equipment & Machinery
Chemicals & Products
Raw Materials
21%
2008
50
20
40
10
0
30
TEU
(x 1,000)
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Steady containerized perishable trade growth expected
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
YoY growth
201020092008
other cargo
perishable cargo
European containerized import growth for
perishables and other cargo
Conventional versus containerized reefer trade
60
06 14
30%
05 13
Ocean weight
(million tons)
04 1207
80
20
40
120
140
1103
0
100
54%
0800 0901 1002
Seabury forecastSeabury actuals
Containerized reefer trade
Conventional reefer trade
Perishable trade is less susceptible for economic downturn. Conversion from conventional
reefer trade will continue
Source: Seabury’s China Ocean Database
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Middle East growth analyzed by commoditiesLooking at the commodity mix per region helps us in finding the drivers behind growth and
forecasting future trade
Source: Seabury Global Ocean Database
USA
30%
59%
41%
87%
Gulf
17%
Other
goods
Consumer
goods
South
East
Asia
90%
10%
North
East
Asia\
13%
91%
Europe
9%
83%
Middle
East &
South
Asia
70%
19%
81%
Global
Share of consumer goods per destination
region in 2009
30
2010
Consumer
goods
Automotive
Raw
materials
20
10
0
Other
2009
10
0
20
20102009
Other
Raw
materials
Automotive
Consumer
goods30
Saudi Arabia export growth in 2010 mainly
driven on raw materials (contrary to UAE exports)
United Arab Emirates export commodities
Saudi Arabia export commoditiesTEU
(x 1,000)
TEU
(x 1,000)
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Contact detailsFor more information, please contact…
Mathijs Slangen
Senior Analyst
Seabury Cargo Advisory
E-mail: [email protected]
Cell: +31 6 1585 6951
Phone: +31 20 880 4224
Fax: +31 20 890 8620
Website: www.seaburygroup.com
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Seabury Maritime in the news
Lloyd’s List (Nov 2009): “ New Global database for box trades”
Lloyd’s List (Nov 2009): “Refrigerated box volumes drop 2.5%”
Containerization International (Nov 2009): “On a knife edge”
IFW (Jan 2010): “Seabury launches sea freight intelligence tool”
Lloyd’s List (March 2010): “China gets appetite for containerized imports”
IFW (March 2010): “China's box trade gap narrows”
Global Liner Conference (March 2010): “What cargo growth lies ahead up to the end of 2011”
Cargo new Asia (April 2010): “Modest recovery for box trades”
Lloyds List (April 2010): “The long and slow road to recovery”
Containerization International (April 2010): “Seabury optimistic about trade growth”
JOC (April 2010) : “Analyst Forecasts 11 Percent Ocean Trade Growth”
Cargo news Asia (May 2010): “Region did better than traditional markets”
TOC Conference (June 2010): ”What’s in the box for the Med region?”
TOC Conference (June 2010): ”Delivering China”
Lloyds List (August 2010): “Going for Growth”
Cool Logistics Conference (September 2010): “Air freight and ocean freight capacity analysis”
Lloyds List (October 2010): “Mapping the scale of vast expansion”
Some recent examples of Seabury Cargo Advisory mentioned in the media