Sea Level Rise-Impacts and Adaptation Costs for Japan, ROK and PRC

Sea-level rise: Impacts and Adaptation Costs for Japan,

South Korea and China

Robert J. Nicholls1, Jochen Hinkel2 and Susan Hanson1Susan Hanson1

1. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment

University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ

United Kingdom

2. European Climate Forum, Potsdam, Germany

ADB Project Meeting, Tokyo

18 October 2011

Plan

• Introduction

• DIVA Model

• Economics of Adaptation to Climate • Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) Study

• The ADB study

• Concluding Remarks

Introduction

Coastal TrendsRising local and global risks

• Population

– Large and growing coastal population (double global trends)

– Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban)

– Tourism, recreation and retirement

• Subsiding cities in susceptible locations, especially in deltas

• Climate change and sea-level rise

• A reactive approach to adaptation

Coasts and PeoplePopulation and economic density in the coastal zone is greater than

other areas of the earth’s surface.

Source: Nicholls and Small, 1993, Journal of Coastal Research

Port City Locations>1 million population in 2005

136 cities globally and 24 cities in the study area (18%)

Source: Nicholls et al., 2008, OECD Report

DIVA (Dynamic Interactive

Vulnerability Assessment)Vulnerability Assessment)Model

DIVADeveloped by EU-funded DINAS-COAST Project:

– Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PIK),

– University of Southampton (was Middlesex University),

– ESRI (was Hamburg University),

– Delft Hydraulics (now Deltares),

– Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.– Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.

• An integrated tool to explore sea-level rise

• Comprises data and algorithms

• Considers impacts at national, regional and global scales

• Adaptation is an integral component

Impacts/Responses to Sea-level Rise in DIVA

NATURAL SYSTEM EFFECTS

SELECTED ADAPTATIONS

1. Inundation,

flood and

storm damage

a. Surge (sea) • Dikes

b. Backwater effect

(river)

2. Wetland loss (and change) • Forbid hard defences2. Wetland loss (and change) • Forbid hard defences

• Sediment nourishment

3. Erosion (direct and indirect

morphological change)

• Beach nourishment

4. Saltwater

Intrusion

a. Surface Waters

b. Groundwater

5. Rising water tables/ impeded

drainage

DIVA structure

DINAS

DB

Delft-Tools

GUI

Data

Repository

DIVA

Data

DIVA

DataDIVA

Data

Model

M1

M2

M3

Module

Repository

Module

Data

DIVA

Data

Load

ModulesScientific

Knowledge

DIVA CD-ROM

DIVA database

• Derived from existing and new global data stored in a geodatabase;

• Mapped to 12,148 linear segments of • Mapped to 12,148 linear segments of ‘similar’ vulnerability;

• Comprises about 100 natural, ecological and socio-economic factors;

• Deltas have subsequently been added as a geographic feature.

DIVA segments

DIVA Structure

CLIMATE CHANGE/

SEA-LEVEL RISE

SCENARIOS

ADAPTATION

OPTIONS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

SCENARIOS

USER SELECTION

IMPACT ASSESSMENT(5 year time steps to 2100)

INITIALISATION(for 1995)

STORM

SURGE

BACKWATER

EFFECT

EROSION SALINISATION

FLOOD RISK

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

IMPACTS

ADAPTATION

ASSESSMENT

WETLAND

VALUATION

WETLAND

LOSS/CHANGET = T + 1

IMPACT METRICS(for 2000 to 2100)

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC)

World Bank StudyWorld Bank Study

Sea-level rise scenarios(plus storm intensification scenario and EACC socio-

economic scenarios)

EACC Adaptation Options

• Beach Nourishment Costs – for beach erosion (using DIVA)

• Dike Upgrade (Capital Costs) – for flooding (using DIVA)flooding (using DIVA)

• Dike Maintenance Costs – for flooding (offline calculation – now in DIVA)

• Port Upgrade Costs (offline calculation)

EACC AdaptationAnticipation of SLR

• Beach Nourishment Costs No

• Dike Upgrade (Capital Costs) Yes

• Dike Maintenance Costs Yes• Dike Maintenance Costs Yes

• Port Upgrade Costs No

EACC Impact Metrics

• Land loss due to erosion (km2/yr)

• Land loss due to submergence (km2/yr)

• Forced migration (thousands/year) • Forced migration (thousands/year)

• People actually flooded (thousands/year)

• Land loss costs (millions US$/year)

• Forced migration costs (millions US$/year)

• Sea flood costs (millions US$/year)

• River flood costs (millions US$/year)

SEA-LEVEL

RISE EFFECTIMPACTS CONSIDERED

ADAPTATION

RESPONSE

(Long-term)

Beach erosion

Land loss/costs

Forced migration/costs

Beach/shore nourishment

Land use planning

EACC Summary

Beach erosion Forced migration/costs Land use planning

Increased

flooding

Expected flood damage

costs

Expected people flooded

Sea and river dikes

Port upgrade

Land use planning

Submergence

Land loss/costs;

Forced migration/costs

Sea and river dikes

Land use planning

Incremental global average annual adaptation costs/residual damages (2010s-2040s)

(US$ billion per year at 2005 prices, no discounting). High income countries are excluded.

Costs and Damages

Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

Low SLR Medium

SLR

High SLR High SLR

(with

Cyclones)

High SLR

(No Pop.

Growth)Cyclones) Growth)

ADAPTATION COSTS:

Beach Nourishment 1.7 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.5

Port Upgrades 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

River Dikes Capital 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6

Maintenance 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Sea Dikes Capital 8.7 20.0 29.9 31.8 29.9

Maintenance 2.2 4.9 7.2 7.7 7.2

TOTAL 13.0 29.0 42.8 45.2 42.8

TOTAL RESIDUAL DAMAGE COSTS:

0.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.5

ADB Study

ADB Study

• Follow EACC approach

• Same SLR scenarios/storm sensitivity analysis

• New ADB socio-economic scenarios (China only)

• Improved input data, such as• Improved input data, such as

– delta subsidence rates

– new port areas in Japan

– new costs of upgrade from recent Dutch experience

• Improved validation data, such as

– actual defence standards in major cities

ADB Data Needs

• Improved port and harbour areal extent

• Better longshore extent of sand beaches

• Observed coastal defence standards

• Coastal rivers – River name and location

– River average discharge

– River depth at mouth

– River bottom slope

– Number of branches at the mouth

• Observed defence standards along coastal rivers

Example Output: Medium SLR ScenarioChina: 11 Regions; South Korea: 7 Regions; Japan: 7 Regions

Excludes port upgrade

Port Upgrade (by 2050)

Example EACC China national results

• Low Scenario: US $3.5 billion

• Mid Scenario: US $5.7 billion• Mid Scenario: US $5.7 billion

• High Scenario: US $7.6 billion

Will split into Chinese provinces

Concluding Questions

• Are the sea-level rise scenarios OK?

• The proactive adaptation rule – stay with EACC study?with EACC study?

• Implications of the tsunami?

• The importance of the adaptation deficit?

• Other issues?

Sea-level rise: Impacts and Adaptation Costs for Japan,

South Korea and China

Robert J. Nicholls1, Jochen Hinkel2 and Susan Hanson1Susan Hanson1

1. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment

University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ

United Kingdom

2. European Climate Forum, Potsdam, Germany

ADB Project Meeting, Tokyo

18 October 2011