SEA LEVEL RISE: A California Perspective

SEA LEVEL RISE:A California Perspective

Julie ThomasCoastal Data Information Program

Southern California Ocean Observing System Scripps Institution of Oceanography

May 3, 2011

Do our federal, state and local communities take sea level rise seriously?

“I’ve been plagued with worry over rising water levels, so….”

The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast by the Pacific Institute

March 2009

110,000 peopleat risk in OrangeCounty

Population vulnerable to a 100 yearCoastal flood with a 1.4 m sea-level rise

• Flooding and erosion already pose a threat to communities along the California coast and there is compelling evidence that these risks will increase in the future.

• In areas where the coast erodes easily, sea –level rise will likely accelerate shoreline recession due to erosion.

• Recommend that Climate change must be integrated into the design of all coastal structures. Future development should be limited in areas that are at risk from rising seas. http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise

California Coastal Commission: Current Approaches to Addressing Sea Level Rise

Through Planning, Permitting and PartnershipsWestern Coastal Program Managers Meeting

January 5, 2011

Michelle Jesperson, Federal Programs Manager

California Coastal Commission

Local communities are beginning to address sea level rise in their General Plans.

California Today

California in 2100

Sea Level Today

3m

5m

+ Extreme High Tide

+ Extreme Storm Wave Runup

Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation 8m

+ PDO+ ENSO

0m

Elevation

Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Ocean Warming Events, Tides and Waves

Ice Loss

Long-Term Risk Factors

Episodic Risk Factors+Extreme Wave Runup

+Extreme High Tide

Federal & State Sponsored Monitoring• Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP)

• Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS)

Coastal Data Information Program

35 years of monitoring Waves on the West Coast.

Ocean Beach Feb 1983

Storm and El Niño enhanced sea levels during an extreme tide

Collecting Shoreline Change data for Southern California

• Predicting sea level rise impacts includes consideration of tides, wave height, terrestrial elevation and runup.

LIDAR (Light Detection & Ranging)an optical remote sensing technology

Alamitos Bay

SealBeach

Elevation map

Magenta = Sea LevelDark red = 5 m elevation

Maps are available : cdip.ucsd.edu/scbps

Data are available for download : http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/

Feb 2010

LIDAR (Light Detecting Radar)

Alamitos Bay

SealBeach

Elevation difference map Between Sep 2004 &Feb 2010.

Dark red = 2m erosionDark blue = 2m accretion

CDIP – Assessment of Shoreline Change California Energy Commission – 2050 Report

Selected low-lying areas were chosen for the Reportdepicting the effects of Sea Level Rise:

OceansideDel MarMission BayPoint LomaCoronadoImperial Beach

San Diego FoundationImperial Beach – 2100(waves not included)

* Effects of erosion or accretion are not included.

Ca Energy CommisionImperial Beach – 2050(waves are included)

During a January 2001 storm, Chris Hanzely employedalternate means of transport on Mission Boulevard in thelow-lying beach area, while John Van Doren sought highground to record the scene.

Photo: John Gastaldo / Union-Tribune

COASTAL FLOODING & EROSION

Automated Warnings of Highway Flooding

Open Coast Flooding & Erosion Risk Assessment : Pacific Region

Erosion problems now It WILL get worse How much worse?!

El Niño + Large Waves + High Tides +Runup + Sea Level Rise

Torrey Pines State Beach – Nov. 2001

Planning for Impact & a Resilient Future Environment

– Mapping/monitoring– Comprehensive floodplain management– Identifying land at risk– Develop decision-making methodology to

determine whether to: • Fortify or rebuild damaged infrastructure;• Reduce the footprint of vulnerable or damaged

infrastructure; or• Abandon and relocate critical infrastructure.

Encinitas - 2002 Encinitas - 2011

Sept 2010

California Coastal Conservancy/Ocean Protection Council

As baseline for planning, surveyed the CaliforniaCoast with both bathymetric and topographic LIDAR, up to the 20 meterContour

Partnering Organizations are in the process of surveying coastal communities to help build

technical capacity to address climate change. • Sea Grant • Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University• Susanne Moser Research & consulting• California Ocean Protection/Ocean Science Trust• NOAA • San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve• San Francisco Bay Conservation & Development • California Coastal Commission• RISA & SCCOOS

March 6, 2011

1. FEDERAL, STATE and Municipalities are starting to plan forClimate Change. Is it being taken seriously?

2. Sea Level Rise is onecomponent that needsto be addressed.

How to build resilient communities ?

SUMMARY