Donald JR MacRae Lloyds TSB Scotland 12th April 2005 Scotland’s Business Growth Enterprise and Culture Committee The Scottish Parliament
Mar 18, 2016
Donald JR MacRae
Lloyds TSB Scotland12th April 2005
Scotland’s Business Growth
Enterprise and Culture CommitteeThe Scottish Parliament
Scotland - The Gap?
Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.
4 3 2 1
Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002No. of
Comparators
30
181121
26
9
2930
30
29
2815
Overall Progress GDP per head
Growing Businesses New business starts per 10k head pop.
% of businesses trading on-line
Business R&D as % of GDP
Relative productivity levels
Global Connections Cost & coverage of broadband
% employers exporting
Graduates as % of workforce
Net migration as % population
Skills & Learning Employment rate
% of 16-19 year old NEET*
% in employment undertaking training
* Not in education, employment or training.
0
40
80
120
160
200
240Lu
xem
bour
g
USA
Norw
ay
Eire
Switz
erla
nd
Cana
daDe
nmar
k
Net
herl
ands
Aus
tria
Icel
and
Aust
ralia UK
Belg
ium
Swed
enFr
ance
Japa
n
Finl
and
SCO
TLA
ND
Ger
man
y
Italy
OEC
DSp
ain
New
Zea
land
Kore
a
Gre
ece
Port
ugal
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Hung
ary
Slov
ak R
epub
licPo
land
Turk
ey
Index: OECD = 100GDP per Capita - 2002 PPPs
Source: OECD (2004), DTI: Regional Competitiveness & State of the Regions (May 2004).
Note: Scotland estimated at 94.6% of UK.
high income high middle income group low middle income group group 101-120 51-100 over 120
International Comparisons of GDP Growth 1973 - 2001
5.2
3.33.0 2.8 2.8 2.6
2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6
Irela
nd
Nor
way
Can
ada
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Japa
n
Finl
and
Italy
Fran
ce UK
Ger
man
y
Swed
en
Scot
land
Country
Growth, per cent
Source: Goudie (2003).
Key Drivers of Productivity Improvement
• Human capital
• Physical capital
• Innovation
• Enterprise
• Competitiveness
Population Trends: Scotland and UK, 1951-2011
Source: Scottish Executive (2000).
UK
Scotland
Index:1995 = 100
Scotland’s Birthrate in a European Context
1.241.251.291.29
1.421.50
1.571.651.691.691.731.74
1.901.90
ItalySpain
GermanyGreece
Portugal
ScotlandSweden
BelgiumEngland
NetherlandsFinland
Denmark
FranceIreland
Total Fertility Rate* 2001
Source: Turner, A., Reflections on the Allander Series. (2004).
* Children per woman
Assumed Annual Long Term Migration by AgeScotland 2006-2007 onwards
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Persons
0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 & overYears of Age
Source: Experian Business Strategies, March 2005.
GDP per Hour Worked 2001
132.9119.9 118.1
100.0 95.787.2
France USA Germany UK Scotland Japan
Index: UK = 100
Source: Scottish Economic Report November 2004.
% working age population in employment OECD
% 16-19 year oldsNEET* OECD
% 20-24 year oldswith at least NVQ 3 UK
% young people with adequate skills (PISA) OECD
% working age populationin education, training UKor employment
Scotland - Skills and Learning
Indicator Quartile Position Comparators
4 3 2 1
Source: Measuring Smart Successful Scotland (2004). Training and Employment Unit, University of Glasgow.
* Not in education, employment or training.
Business R & D Expenditure
as % Output 1990-98
0.62
1.351.45
1.77
1.98
USA Germany France UK Scotland*
%
Source: Crafts and O’Mahony (2001) and DTI (2001).
*1995 - 99
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Scotland 2003.
New Business Activity
Scotland
United Kingdom
Ireland
Aggregate Government Expenditure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scotland UK
Source: Goudie (2002). Scottish Executive, GERS 2002-2003.
78-
79 79-
80 80-
81 81-
82 82-
83 83-
84 84-
85 85-
86 86-
87 87-
88 88-
89 89-
90 90-
91 91-
92 92-
93 93-
94 94-
95 95-
96 96-
97 97-
98 98-
99 99-
00 00-
01 01-
02 02-
03
% share in GDP, 1978-79 to 2002-03
Aggregate Government Expenditure % Share GDP 2003
58
56
55
52
51
51
51
50
49
49
49
48
47
47
43
40
35
Sweden
Denmark
France
SCOTLAND 2004**
Belgium
Austria
Finland
SCOTLAND 2002-03*
Italy
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
Greece
Luxembourg
UK
Spain
Ireland
Source: Verhulst et al. (2005). *GERS 2002-2003; **Author’s calculation
Scotland - The Gap?
Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.
4 3 2 1
Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002No. of
Comparators
30
181121
26
9
2930
30
29
2815
Overall Progress GDP per head
Growing Businesses New business starts per 10k head pop.
% of businesses trading on-line
Business R&D as % of GDP
Relative productivity levels
Global Connections Cost & coverage of broadband
% employers exporting
Graduates as % of workforce
Net migration as % population
Skills & Learning Employment rate
% of 16-19 year old NEET*
% in employment undertaking training
* Not in education, employment or training.