Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)

Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions –

NAMAs

Case Study on Opportunities in Brazilian Cities – Belo Horizonte

EMBARQ, The WRI Center on Sustainable Transport

Supported by: Inter-American Development Bank

Proposed Framework for the NAMA

Public policy objective

NAMA Components

GHG Mitigation

Co-Benefits

Financing

Institutional Settings

Monitoring, Reporting and Verification MRV

Risk Analysis

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/South_america_%281%29.jpg

http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u252/rmcastanheira/BelaFoto.jpg

Belo Horizonte, Brazil

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Bicycle Baseline

Bicycel IMP

46.0%

48.0%

50.0%

52.0%

54.0%

56.0%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Public Transport Baseline

Public Transport IMP

42.0%

44.0%

46.0%

48.0%

50.0%

52.0%

54.0%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Private Transport Baseline

Private Transport IMP

Go

als

Roadways Improvements

Bus Rapid Transit Implementation

Metro Expansion

Integration

Bicycle Infrastructure

Pedestrian Facilities

Land Use

Parking Policies

NAMA Components

TransportModel

CalibrationBase Year 2008

Roadwayand TransitNetworks

(Supply 2008)

Socio-EconomicCharacteristics

Origin-DestinationMatrix

(Demand 2008)

Travel Time Vehicle Kilometers

Emissions Factors2008

GHG Emissions2008

TransportModel

ApplicationBase Year 2008

Roadwayand TransitNetworks

(Supply 2020)

Socio-EconomicCharacteristics(Demand 2020)

Travel Time Vehicle Kilometers

GHG Emissions2020

Emissions Factors2020

Structure and Parameters

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Tota

l GH

G E

mis

sion

s Sav

ings

(100

0 to

ns)

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (1

000

tons

CO

2)

Year

Integral Mobility Plan

Baseline

Total GHG Savings

For 2030 expected reductions of 1million CO2eq

tons compared with baseline, for a cumulative value of 9 million CO2eq tons

($200)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Trav

el T

ime

Savi

ngs

Eco

no

mic

Eq

uiv

alen

t ($

mill

ion

s)

Trav

el T

ime

Savi

ngs

(mill

ion

ho

urs

)

Year

Public Transport

Private Transport

Economic Equivalent

In 2030 182 million hours saved in public transport and 170 million hours saved in private transport. Economic equivalent: USD 1,300 million

Air Pollutants

BaselineIntegral Mobility

Plan Difference

Bikeways (km) 14 300 286

Buslanes (km) 14 72 58

BRT (km) 0 80 80

Metro (km) 29 65 36

Road Investment USD Million 38.4 982.8 944.4

Capital Cost USD Million 1,551.7 4,215.2 2,663.5

Total GHG Emissions (CO2eq Ton) 44,775,918 35,624,604 -9,151,315

Climate Change Funding Potential

Where : Climate change funding [USD] : Baseline GHG emissions in year y (without the NAMA) : Scenario s GHG emissions in year y (with the NAMA)

: Emission reduction certificate market value (13.02 Euro equivalent to 17.58 USD per ton CO2eq according to http://www.ecx.eu/ April 15, 2010)

: Multiplier factor, we assume a value of 2. : Annual discount rate (e.g. 12%)

: Period of performance (e.g. lifecycle of the infrastructure 2030)

http://www.bogotacomovamos.org/datos/AE_14_Bogota_Como_Vamos_2009.pdf1600 surveys, error 2.6% with a 95% confidence level

ConclusionsFor 2030 the plan is expected to save 36% in GHG, 25% in travel time, 19% in transport costs and 39% in particulate matter as compared with a projected linebase (BAU)

The potential funding from climate change sources is small as compared with the funding needs, but a supported NAMA will help in removing implementation barriers.

Base GHG and co-benefits estimation in good transport planning:

Detailed modeling with good information on demand and supply

Integration of multiple elements under the plan: active and public transport, land use and transport demand management

Base climate change funding on the reduction potential, not the size of the investments

Base MRV on activity surveys (mobility objectives)