Science questions How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions? How should future emission scenarios be constructed?

Science questions

• How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions?

• How should future emission scenarios be constructed?

Global emissions of NOx

[million tons]

0.0

40.0

80.0

120.0

160.0

200.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Europe North AmericaAsia + Oceania Latin AmericaAfrica + Middle East Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)SRES A2 - World Total SRES B2 - World Total

Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

Emission standards for gasoline vehiclesCurrent legislation

20102000

Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Projections of global SO2, NOx, BC and OC emissionsfrom anthropogenic sources, relative to 2000

Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

Businessas usual,

with recentair quality

legislations

SO2 NOx BC OC

Maximum technically feasible reductions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1990 2000 2010 2020 20300%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Currently ongoing activities

• China (Hao Jiming)

• EDGAR (John van Ardenne)

• GEIA (Claire Granier)

• EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)

Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor

Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year

Coal combustion: SO2, NOx, CO, Hg, PM

Biomass burning: black carbon

Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM

Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and cement production

Other sources of VOCs

a guideline for developing emission inventory

Emissions InventoriesEmissions Inventories

[email protected]

Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)

Emission sources:- Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion- Industrial processes- Agriculture- Waste- Biomass burning

Emission sources:- Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion- Industrial processes- Agriculture- Waste- Biomass burning

Compounds:- CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases- NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3

- BC/OC

Compounds:- CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases- NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3

- BC/OC

1890 1990 1995 2000 20??

EDGAR/HYDE

EDGAR v2EDGAR v3

EDGAR FTEDGAR v4

EDGAR + IIASAEDGAR + POLES

vd WerfHoelzemann

Bond

QAUNTIFYEyring

GEIA

9

Issues in emission inventories

[email protected]

Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD

Emission factors: emission abatement

Grid maps (cm2 technical possible; data is often missing)

Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour)

Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?)

Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol)

Verification studies

10

Emission inventories and this task force

[email protected]

1. Make use of existing work.Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve insight.

2. Verification of existing inventories- Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data)- Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling)- Emission factors/speciation (local measurements)

3. Science vs accountancy- Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development (exchange/training)- Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained.

-1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission inventories do we aim at independent estimates?

Emission inventories: a few issues

Claire GRANIER

Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France

Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germanyand CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA

Development of international databases

Within: the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network

Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENThttp://www.accent-network.org

First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will be released ~ June, 15 POET (1990-2000) RETRO (1960-2000)

Tools will be soon available: visualization comparisons regridding formats

A few issues

• Consistency between inventories: gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation spatial: local, regional and global

More links between communities: national/international and international projects (organize an international workshop?)

• Natural emissions from static inventories to interactive

parameterizations/models to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and land-use change. Database of ancillary data under development withinGEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome).

• Verification of emissions intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.) Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO, NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for

local/regional emissions. Methods still under development, an

intercomparison could be organized.