Science in a Populist Era Challenges and Opportunities SLAC October 9, 2014

Science in a Populist EraChallenges and Opportunities

SLACOctober 9, 2014

Michael LubellDirector of Public Affairs, APS

Mark W. Zemansky Professor of Physics, CCNY

1

WashingtonSpinning WheelsHow bad can it get?

Until the Budget AccordLast Year’s Pinnacle of Success

Helium

The Political Context

5

113th Congress October 20144

113th CongressOctober 2014

Tea Party Members

Voteview.com

Voteview.com

The Budget Context

The Budget Future

No Grand Deal Constrained Spending

The Political Future

Populism

Populism

A political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against the

privileged elite.

The Public Context

What the Public Thinks

• Science is important (93%)• Federal research support research is an appropriate use of

tax dollars (68%)• Few people see how research affects their lives• Science is 2nd on a list of programs to cut • Trust in government is low (15-20%)• More than 50% of voters say they want to replace their

own representative – first time in more than 20 years

What the Public Thinks Matters More than Ever

• When spending is risingAn inside Washington game works

• When spending is fallingElected officials evaluate which cuts voters will most

easily accept

A Snapshot of Science Appropriations

Revealing Some Policy & Priority Differences

Science AppropriationsBy the Numbers

Bedtime Reading

Account FY 11CR FY 12 FY 13 FY 14P

FY 14 FY 15P FY15H FY15S

DOE SC 4.84 4.88 4.59 5.15 5.07 5.11 5.07 5.09

ASCR 0.42 0.44 0.42 0.466 0.478 0.541 0.541 0.557

BER 0.61 0.61 0.58 0.625 0.610 0.628 0.540 0.628

BES 1.68 1.69 1.59 1.86 1.71 1.81 1.70 1.81

FES 0.38 0.40 0.38 0.466 0.505 0.416 0.540 0.341

HEP 0.80 0.79 0.74 0.777 0.797 0.744 0.775 0.774

NP 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.570 0.570 0.593 0.600 0.602

DOE EERE 1.84 1.82 1.70 2.78 1.91 2.32 1.79 2.07

DOE ARPA-E 0.180 0.280 0.250 0.379 0.280 0.325 0.280 0.280

DOE NNSA 10.52 11.00 10.79 11.65 11.21 11.66 11.36 11.9

NSF 6.86 7.03 6.82 7.625 7.20 7.26 7.41 7.26

R&RA 5.56 5.72 5.63 6.212 5.81 5.81 5.98 5.84

MREFC 0.117 0.170 0.180 0.210 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.201

EHR 0.861 0.830 0.840 0.881 0.847 0.890 0.876 0.890

NIST Core 0.578 0.620 0.640 0.754 0.707 0.739 0.726 0.744

STRS 0.507 0.570 0.580 0.694 0.651 0.680 0.671 0.685

CRF 0.070 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.056 0.059 0.055 0.059

NIH 30.69 31.64 28.83 31.09 29.90 30.2 30.5

DOD 6.1 1.95 2.12 1.90 EST 2.16 2.17 2.02 2.03 2.27

DOD 6.2 4.45 4.70 4.23 EST 4.63 4.64 4.46 4.53 4.59

NASA Sci 4.94 5.09 4.78 5.02 5.15 4.97 5.19 5.20

Selected

Scien

ce Acco

un

ts in $B

Science Wars

Playing Out in the House SST Committee

Messaging Matters• Providing you with jobs rather than growing the economy• Saving your life rather than improving health care• Saving you money and time at the supermarket rather

than improving quality of life• Saving you money at the pump: giving you more miles per

gallon rather than providing better fuel efficiency• Connecting you with family and friends rather than

creating social media • Images rather than words

2014 Election Forecast• House: All seats up– Changes only at the margin

• Senate: 33 seats up (20 D and 13 R)– Republicans need a pickup of 6 seats to gain control– Certain Republican pickups: Montana, South Dakota and

West Virginia (all vacated Democratic seats)– Likely Republican pickups: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana– Possible Republican pickup: Iowa– Possible but unlikely Republican pickup: Colorado– Possible but unlikely Democratic pickup: Kentucky– Possible Democratic pickup: Georgia– The wildcard: Kansas