Science and Technology for Food Security in Africa · 2020. 4. 6. · Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Technical Meeting in Support of S&T

Science and Technology for Food Security in Africa

Mark W. Rosegrant

Director

Environment and Production Technology Division

Technical Meeting in Support of S&T Partnerships in AfricaIFPRI, Washington, DCSeptember 8, 2014

Outline

Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and Food Security

Irrigation Potential in Africa

Science and Technology for African Food Security

Moving Forward

Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and Food Security

Annual Average Growth in GDP in Africa: Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050

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Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

Annual Average Growth in Per Capita GDP in Africa: Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050


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0.5

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4.5

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Annual Average Growth in Population in Africa: Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050


0

0.5

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1.5

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2.5

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Cereal Yields – Africa Regions: Annual Average Growth Rate, 2010 - 2050


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0.2

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Source of Cereal Production Growth: 2010 - 2050


-20

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Area Expansion Yield Improvement

Total Irrigated Area by Africa Regions: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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14

CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica

Mill

ion

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ctar

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2010 2050

Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2050


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Rice Wheat Maize Other Grains Soybeans Sorghum

Per

cen

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ange

Percent Change in World Prices of Meat between 2010 and 2050


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Beef Pork Lamb Poultry

Per

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Africa Per Capita Cereal Demand: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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100

150

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EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica

Kg

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apit

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2010 2050

Africa Per Capita Meat Demand: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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60


Kg

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2010 2050

Africa Net Trade Cereals: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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Mill

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2010 2050

Africa Net Trade Meat: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


-5

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-1

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Mill

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2010 2050

Population at the Risk of Hunger : Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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Developing SubSaharanAfrica

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2010 2050

Population at the Risk of Hunger – Africa: Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050


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2010 2050

How can Science and Technology Improve the Outlook for Food

Security in Africa?

Assessment Framework for Smallholder Irrigation Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa

Potential large-scale and small-scale based irrigated areas, alternative IRR levels

Source: IFPRI 2010

Potential increase in gross revenue per hectare from small-scale irrigation

Source: IFPRI 2010

Large-scale irrigation potential: location specific

Source: IFPRI 2010

Dam typeInvestment expenditure

Internal rate of return

Increase in irrigated area

(US$ million) (%) (hectares)

Operational 16,299 7.16 8,351,423

Rehabilitated 1,954 11.32 1,000,944

Planned 13,465 5.27 6,899,376

Total 31,718 6.61 16,251,744

Small-scale irrigation potential: widespread, more profitable, but sensitive to cost

Source: IFPRI 2010

Cost typeInvestment expenditure

Internal rate of return

Increase in irrigated area

(US$ million) (%) (hectares)

Low 24,315 104.00 15,785,617

Medium 21,835 27.00 7,340,964

High 1,969 9.00 321,727

User-Friendly Models for Scenario Analysis

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Science and Technology Potential in African Agriculture

Potential Impact of Agricultural Technology Adoption on Global Food Security

Impacts of agricultural technologies on farm productivity, prices, hunger, and trade flows were site-specifically estimated using DSSAT biophysical model linked with IMPACT global partial equilibrium agriculture sector model.

Rosegrant, M.W., J. Koo, N. Cenacchi, C. Ringler, R. Robertson, M. Fisher, C. Cox, K. Garrett, N.D. Perez, and P. Sabbagh. 2014. Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies.IFPRI, Washington, D.C.

http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-world-natural-resource-scarcity

Global & Regional

Eleven technologies

Three Crops• Wheat

• Rice

• Maize

No-Tillage

Integrated Soil Fertility Management

Organic Agriculture

Precision Agriculture

Crop Protection

Drip Irrigation

Sprinkler Irrigation

Water Harvesting

Drought Tolerance

Heat Tolerance

Nitrogen Use Efficiency

Technology Assessment Scope

Modeling Tools

DSSAT• Biophysical model - assesses impact of single

technology or technology mix

˗ Productivity (yields)

˗ Resource use (water, N losses)

IMPACT• Global economic agricultural model - assesses

changes in productivity due to technology adoption

˗ Food production, consumption, trade

˗ International food prices

˗ Calorie availability, food security

Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT)

DSSAT

Technology strategy (combination of

different practices)

Corresponding geographically

differentiated yield effects

IMPACT

Food demand and supply

Effects on world food prices and trade

Food security and malnutrition

Global DSSAT ResultsYield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014


Regional DSSAT Results, Maize:NUE, ISFM, and No-till, 2050 vs. Baseline



Regional DSSAT results, Maize: Drought Tolerance, Heat Tolerance and Crop Protection (disease), 2050, compared to baseline


Price Effects of Technologies, 2050, compared to Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies


-60.0

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Maize Rice Wheat

No-Till Drought toleranceHeat Tolerance Nitrogen Use EfficiencyIntegrated Soil Fertility Mgt Precision AgricultureWater Harvesting Irrigation - sprinklerIrrigation - Drip Crop Protection

Percent Change in Harvested Area, 2050, Compared to Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies


-60.0

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Maize Rice Wheat

Perc

enta

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No-Till Drought tolerance Heat Tolerance

Nitrogen Use Efficiency Integrated Soil Fertility Mgt Precision Agriculture

Water Harvesting Irrigation - sprinkler Irrigation - Drip

Crop Protection

Food Security Effects of Technology relative to 2050 Baseline


-40.0

-35.0

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Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

www.ifpri.org

Online Tool with Downloadable Data

http://apps.harvestchoice.org/agritech-toolbox/

The African Agriculture Technology PlatformMulti-Level, Face-to-Face, and Virtual

Locally appropriate technology

products and services

Supporting evidence-based investment decision and priority setting

NEW ALLIANCE TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM

Providing technical support to the New Alliance partners:1) Setting priorities for

national commodity value chains and their targets

2) Geospatial targeting and ex-ante impact analysis to optimize investments

3) Design of the Technology Platform components and development of prototype platform S

up

po

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ata

/ A

na

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Figure 1: New Alliance Technology Platform - National Target & Technology Analysis

Other Investment Plans

CAADPNational Agricultural

Investment Plans

Development PartnersGovernment and National Partners Private Sector

New Alliance Technology Platform Country Steering Group

Status & Trends

•Nationalproduction,consumption, tradeand price statistics

- FAO, Ministry, Statistics Offices

Productivity Enhancement Potential

• Assess achievable yieldscompared to currentfarmer yields (yield gaps)

- farmer and experimentdata

- crop models

Demand & Welfare

•Trends in demand - sectoral studies, IFPRI

IMPACT model• Contribution to nutrition• Poverty & gender factors

- HH survey data

Yield Gap and Adoption Studies & Literature

• Field trials (on station, on farm)•Modeling studies• Dissemination pathway

assessments • Diffusion and Adoption

Studies (e.g. DIVA)

Nationalstatistics, household survey data, experimental data, farmer plots (e.g., own management and demonstrations), performance trials, adoption studies, crop models, technology evaluations, national data and thematic expertize, national technology and development scenarios

Sub-NationalAnalyses

•Multi-location trials• Location specific crop

modeling (e.g. IFPRI)• Investment

Document & Evaluate Focus Technologies

• Seeds• Fertilizers (e.g., ISFM)• Small scale irrigation• Agronomy (e.g. tillage)•Institutional Capacities (e.g. FARA)

National Priority

Commodities (All)

National Technical Group(including Technical Partners: CGIAR, AGRA, FARA)

Co

ord

ina

tio

n &

Re

sp

on

se

C

ore

Activ

itie

s

Technology Packages to Meet Sub-National

Yield & Adoption Targets (2022)

Sub-National Adoption Targets

Sub-National Yield Targets

National Yield Targets (2022)Achievable

Yields

Adoption Targets (2022)New Alliance

Focus Commodities

New Alliance National Technology Coordination and

Investment Plan

Identify focus commodity sub-set for

New Alliance

Moving Forward

Under the CAADP-CGIAR MoU – develop/support new ways of doing business in Africa

Partnerships – explore synergies and capacity development for additional technology sharing

Scaling of agricultural technologies to help achieve food security goals (Malabo Declaration)

Develop and transfer models for foresight and scenario analysis for policies and technologies

Develop and transfer decision-support tools for sustainable technology development, applied across scales from household/micro level to national/macro

Directions for Science and Technology Partnerships and Analysis

Science and Technology for Food Security in Africa · 2020. 4. 6. · Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Technical Meeting in Support of S&T

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