Scenarios For The Deployment Of New Nuclear Power … · Scenarios For The Deployment Of New Nuclear Power Stations ... • New thermal plant requires ... • No sound basis to challenge/change
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Scenarios For The Deployment Of New Nuclear Power StationsMike Middleton – Energy Technologies InstituteLecture For The Energy Institute – 2nd November 2015
Introduction to the ETI• The Energy Technologies Institute - what do we do?• Nuclear in a UK low carbon 2050 energy system• “Large” Nuclear – deployment constraints• Finding a UK niche for small nuclear
Recent ETI projects and analysis• Power Plant Siting Study• Alternative Nuclear Technologies Study• ESME Sensitivity Analysis For Nuclear
Conclusions• Confidence in results?• ETI’s Nuclear Insights
International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors
Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints
• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS
• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies
• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear
• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following
competitive open procurement process
System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies• Develop a high level functional requirement
specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing
• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors
• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following
competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to
determine attractiveness of such a “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system
Assumptions for large reactors:• No sound basis to challenge/change existing site selection criteria• Some potential brownfield nuclear site capacity to be diverted to gas with CCS
Assumptions for small modular reactors:• No sound basis to change existing nuclear site selection criteria, but in application:
– Operational footprint will be smaller for small units than large– Infrastructure between site and cooling water source of less significance– Cooling water demands will be lower for small units than large– In CHP applications, it is logical and realistic to extend distance from cooling
water body from 2km; 20km has been assumed in ANT and PPSS projects
Reduction in SMR summer overnight power generation in this model run
• Flexibility is likely to be important to be able to modulate power to help balance the grid• The “flexibility” here is diurnal, within a seasonal pattern• Remember also the impact from intermittent renewables and associated peak generation
Abatement Cost• Energy system costs would be incurred even if no carbon targets• Abatement cost is additional cost for low-carbon solution to given set of demands
ESMEv3.4 Baseline (with District Heating available but without SMRs deployed)• Annual abatement cost by 2050 - £58.24 Bn/yr• Equivalent to 1.55% of GDP• Scenario – UK SMR first plant starting operations in 2030 with CAPEX of £4500/kWe
Annual Cost Of Abatement in 2050 (£bn/year) and as % of GDP
Approach to decarbonising heat WITHOUT District Heating WITH District Heating
Abatement Cost/year £64.7 Bn £54.6 BnAbatement as % of GDP 1.72% 1.45%