futura mb framtid · insikt · strategi Scenarioplanering Hur kan detta användas som verktyg för lärosätena? Nätverksträff omvärldsanalys 27-28 maj Lunds universitet Martin Börjesson [email protected]www.futuramb.se +46 704 262891 1 torsdag den 27 maj 2010
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futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
ScenarioplaneringHur kan detta användas som verktyg för lärosätena?
Nätverksträff omvärldsanalys27-28 maj Lunds universitet Martin Börjesson
Utförandeförmåga Att vetaOrsak/verkanÄmneskunskapVerifierbarhet
Ange riktningTolka och syntetisera
OverifierbarhetSe mönster
Intuition
VI
VII
21torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Idag vs i morgon
I
II
III
IV
V
0 - 3 mån
3 mån - 1 år
1 - 2 år
2 - 5 år
5 - 10 årOrganisationen i omvärlden, desssyfte och dess avgränsningar
Utveckla alternativ för attmöta förändring
Bygga strukturer och system i balans mellan nutid och framtid
Operativa planer och programbaserat på samlat kunnande
Konkret utförande. Kvalitetoch känsla i praktiken
Det som intefinns idag
Det somfinns idag
VI
VII
22torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Universitetens utmaning 1: bli en hel organisation
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
Värderingar och målsättningar
Anpassningoch utveckling
Funktion
Tidspersktiv
Morgondagens universitet
Gårdagens universitet
23torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Universitetens utmaning 2: Förmågeglappet
Abs
trak
tion/
ämne
skun
skap
Organisation
glapp
Kunskapsdomän
24torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Universitetens utmaning 3: Undvika ytterligeterna
Grupp Individer
Grupptänkande Fragmentering
Närsynthet Handlingsförlamning
Behövs balans för att undvika
25torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Utmaningen med scenarioplanering på
universiteten
26torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Kritik mot scenarioplanering - speciellt i akademisk kontext
• Scenarier är inte objektiva - inte vetenskapliga- ”De som tror de är objektiva har bara okritiskt anammat de auktoritära
doktrinerna i sin egen begränsade kultur” - Rollo May- Scenarioprocessen hanterar subjektiviteten genom att notera den och göra den
tydlig snarare än att dölja den• Scenarier går inte att direkt översätta till strategi
- Detta dilemma innebär att man måste vara tydlig med att det handlar om en lärandeprocess där ledningspersoner själva måste lära och därefter utveckla sin strategi
• Metoden kommer från företagsvärlden...- ...men är i sig en protest mot det rådande lednings- och planeringsparadigmet
• Scenarioplanering är tidskrävande- Ja, men metoden är en lärandeprocess för både individer och organisationer
• Scenarioplanering ger ett godtyckligt resultat- Komplexiteten som döljs i ett enkelt och ”godtyckligt” scenariokors kommer
tillbaka när historierna utvecklas (fyrfältsmetoden är mer kraftfull än den ser ut)• Scenarioplanering skapar inget nytt - hanterar inte diskontinuiteterna
- Har man då lyckats speciellt bra?
27torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Case studies - lyckade projekt 17
62 Universiti Sains Malaysia (2007) Foreword
Case Study OneUniversiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia)
Theme: Towards a ‘new’ vision
About the Universiti Sains MalaysiaThe Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) is a public university with its main campus situated in Penang, Malaysia. There are two other branch campuses, one in mainland Penang, and the other in Kelantan. With approximately 30,000 students, USM is one of the biggest universities (in student numbers) in Malaysia. The number of lecturers is about 1600, with a student-lecturer ratio of about 23:1.
Overview of Scenario Planning ProcessLength of process Approx. 18 months (May 2005 – December 2006)No. of large workshops 2No. of workshop participants 20Conversations with community 6 months (series of presentations + discussions)No. wider community involved 440
ContextMalaysia, like many other countries, was (and still is) acutely aware of the broad shift from a production-consumption economy to a knowledge-based economy, and the important role of the university in this. Additionally, changes internally in Malaysia meant that universities had more autonomy vis-à-vis the government. Within the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) the Vice-Chancellor, Professor Dzulkifli Razak, was spearheading several innovations and much re-visioning.
Reasons for Scenario PlanningIn light of the radically changing environment, USM decided to take the proactive step ‘to map out alternative futures, unpack the divergent views of stakeholders, and then move towards a desired future’.62 The process was distinctive in that it was driven by ideals; it was not just about adapting to the external environment but also about questioning that environment as well as internal perceptions and assumptions and seeking an inspiring, but realistic, vision for the future which the university could rally behind.
MethodStage one: Determining the scenariosThe project began with an intensive two-day workshop entitled ‘Creating the Future of Higher Education: Implications for Universiti Sains Malaysia’, during which initial scenarios (for the next 25 years) were agreed upon. About 20 top-level leaders, senior administrators, o!cers, and academics representing the various schools from USM were present. This workshop integrated a variety of techniques in the process of creating the scenarios, such as emerging issues analysis, causal layered analysis, the futures triangle, and a macro-history analysis.
Stage two: Conversations with the communityIn the months following the workshop several presentations of the alternative scenarios were made, first to the heads of departments, then to the deputy deans and senior administrators, then to several other small workshops to which every lecturer and administrative o!cer was invited, and finally to student leaders at three of USM’s campuses. During each of these workshops feedback was elicited from the participants in the form of a questionnaire which: (1) sought the participants’ views on the likelihood of various events or phenomenon happening, (2) gave the participants the opportunity to state their attitudes (likes and dislikes) towards the various scenarios presented to them, and (3) elicited broad agreement as to the most likely ‘preferred’ scenario to be expanded.
Stage three: Agreeing on a vision for USMA second workshop was held entitled Creating the Futures of Universiti Sains Malaysia: Backcasting and Visioning of the Scenarios. The workshop began with a review of the dissemination exercises – which informed and was integrated into the ensuing discussion. The final output of this workshop was an emerging vision for USM. The relationship of the vision to the scenarios is described below:
The five alternative scenarios represent an analytic range which describes the nature of the vision in full range, whereas, the emerging ... vision signifies an open space, allowing participants to create an authentic picture
Universiti Sains Malaysia (2007) p122
19
65 Kees Van Der Heijden (1996)
Case Study TwoThe Open University (UK)
Theme: Promoting the art of strategic conversation
About the Open UniversityThe Open University (OU) is the United Kingdom’s only university dedicated to distance learning. It is open to all – there are no previous qualifications required to study. Students must be over 16 when their course starts but there is no upper age limit. They have around 150,000 undergraduate and more than 30,000 postgraduate students. 10,000 of the students have disabilities. More than 25,000 students live outside the UK. Nearly all students are studying part-time.
Overview of Scenario Planning ProcessLength of process Approx. 6 months (first process), Approx.3 months (second process), one day (third process)No. of large workshops SeveralNo. of workshop participants Approx.25Conversations with community Ongoing
ContextThe OU o!ers high-quality online and distance learning on a large scale. It is a very big organisation which has the dual challenges of running a huge operational machine, while maintaining consistent and high quality. During its early years, the OU had had very little competition. However, in 2002, when the new Vice-Chancellor Professor Brenda Gourley arrived, competition was suddenly and notably increasing. The government was emphasising widening participation, other providers (including those in the private sector) were growing their part-time student market, and e-learning was gathering pace.
Reasons for Scenario PlanningHaving been the main provider of online and distance learning in the UK for some time the OU had not had to worry about competition or market: they had grown used to queues at the door and had needed to spend their energies and time on ensuring quality output on an increasingly large scale. This had resulted in an institution which was arguably fairly inward-looking. As the external environment was changing, Vice-Chancellor Brenda Gourley saw that a culture change was needed within the OU – the University needed to become more outwardly focused, alert to changes in the environment, and more strategic in its thinking. Kees Van Der Heijden writes about how scenarios can be used to help an organisation learn the ‘art of strategic conversation’65, which is an apt description of what the OU hoped to learn in the process.
MethodOverviewSince the intention was to help bring about a culture change (something which does not happen quickly) scenario planning was used over time as an ongoing practice. The initial scenario planning process was the most in-depth, and could be described as a major culture change and strategic thinking event. However, new scenarios were done roughly every two years subsequently, and there were strategic forums in between which continued and elaborated on the discussion/conversation. It could be argued that the initial culture change process was in its nature a one-o! event, and was unlikely to be repeated in standard form. The remaining practice of strategic conversations remained at the OU, and di!erent scenario planning exercises were used subsequently to refresh and continue the change in culture and thinking.
Process One (2002)An outside consultant, very experienced in scenario planning, was engaged to run the process. Initially he did a series of interviews across the organisation to gauge readiness to engage. After this, 25 people were selected to partake in the working groups. They were selected to represent breadth within the organisation, and included a mix of faculty and administrative sta!, across a range of disciplines, departments, and levels of seniority. During the first few workshops the scenario outlines were agreed. The group was then divided into four subgroups and each one was given a particular scenario to spend time developing and refining. Eventually the scenarios were distributed via a booklet and online. The scenarios were used to develop some strategic priorities (rather than a clear strategic plan).
21
Case Study ThreeBemidji State University (USA)
Theme: Creating a strategic plan
About Bemidji State UniversityBemidji State Universirty (BSU) is a small public university situated on a lakeside campus in northern Minnesota’s lakes and forest region. It has approximately 3,700 undergraduate and 400 graduate students. The student-faculty ratio is about 19:1.
Overview of Scenario Planning ProcessLength of process 16 monthsNo. of large workshops 27No. of workshop participants 30Conversations with community OngoingNo. wider community involved 300-400 (+ campus-wide distribution)
ContextDuring the autumn of 2002, BSU completed a strategic planning process, the outcome of which was The University Plan (2002-2007). In 2005, prior to preparing for the next strategic planning process, they hired an external consultant who suggested that the current strategic plan was too cumbersome and did not facilitate decision-making and that the planning committees were bogged down in topics of operation and implementation rather than strategy.
Reasons for Scenario PlanningScenario planning was identified as a process that would lay the foundations for the university’s next strategic plan. In particular, it was thought that scenario planning would heighten campus awareness of external forces that have an impact on outcomes, and would strengthen agreement about possible futures to guide strategy development.
MethodPlanningThe planning team was composed of 30 members, including representatives of di!erent units within the university, additional volunteers (recruited from an open invitation to the entire campus community), and community representatives from the region who represented di!erent aspects of the communities served by the university. The process itself was coordinated, and the workshops facilitated, by an internal sta! member who specialised in organisational development.
Phase oneOver the course of three months, the planning team met 11 times during which period the scenarios were composed. One interesting aspect of these workshops was that during the first workshops they had a series of presentations from external people which provided information regarding external drivers that might a!ect the university’s future. These were also made available to the entire campus. The planning team was also given a series of readings to stimulate their thinking.
Phase twoSixteen work sessions were held to explore the scenarios and in particular their implications for strategy development. These sessions identified robust strategies which prepared the university for critical and unpredictable factors. In particular, they focused on strategies to address characteristics which were common across all the scenarios.
CommunicationVarious communication methods were employed throughout the process, such as a planning report newsletter covering the highlights of the process, and a scenario planning web page. Midway through the process, team members expressed a wish to ‘hear from the campus’ so three half-day campus-wide sessions were scheduled, in which small group discussions were facilitated for 300+ people.
Bemidji State University (USA)
The Open University (UK)
Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia)
• Leddes av innovativ ”vice-chancellor”• Samverkan med andra förändringsprojekt• Tydlig målbild - utveckla en övergripande vision• Facilitering av högprofil futurist
• Leddes av innovativ ”vice-chancellor”• Tidsinvesteringen korrelerades med det upplevda
lärandet - positivt• Uppdelade grupper som ägde sina egna resultat• Tillgång till namnkunniga externa experter
• Tydligt mål - input till strategisk plan• Extremt öppen och tydlig process• Externa deltagare - både samhällsrepresentanter
och experter långväga ifrån
28torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Case study - ett misslyckat projekt
29torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Case study - ett misslyckat projekt (2)
30torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Dimensioner att reflektera runt
Fokusera på att utveckla tänkandet
Fokusera på konkret och användbart resultat
Köra utan ledningeni processen
Involvera ledningeni arbetet
Huvudfokus på att uppnå effekter
Huvudfokus på metoden
Styrnings-/beslutsfokus
Kunskapsprocess
Följa organisationensplaneringscykler
Leva i en egen tidsrymd
Göra själv Köpa utifrån
31torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Mina funderingar
• Måste scenarioprojekten pågå inom varje universitet - eller kan man samarbeta över Sverige?
• Kan man fokusera på ett universitet där förutsättningarna är mer lovande än på andra ställen och utveckla ett bra svenskt case?
• Man bör börja med kunskapsprojekt för att skapa förtrogenhet med tänkandet
• Bygg gärna ihop scenarioprojekten med andra ledarutvecklingsprogram
• Bygg upp er egen kunskap - expertis - integritet först
32torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Allmänna scenarioreferenser
http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Referenser till artiklar och scenarier på Internet
The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz
Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden
33torsdag den 27 maj 2010
futurambframtid · insikt · strategi
Scenarioplaneringsprojekt med akademisk ankytning
• Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) - University Futures: http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,3343,en_2649_35845581_31245522_1_1_1_1,00.html
- Fyra scenarier: http://www.oecd.org/document/8/0,3343,en_2649_35845581_37031944_1_1_1_1,00.html
• University of Tasmania Future Scenarios: http://www.utas.edu.au/academicplan/scenarios.html
• College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences http://www.cvmbs.colostate.edu/insight/2006/March2006/aavmc.htm
• University of St Andrews, Scotland http://www.horizon.unc.edu/conferences/scot_proceedings.asp
• Lincoln University, New Zealand http://www.horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/transforming.asp
• Australian National Training Authority http://www.anta.gov.au/vetFuture.asp
Artiklar om scenarioplanering med akademisk anknytning
• A Guide to Scenario Planning in Higher Education (Nicola Sayers) https://www.lfhe.ac.uk/publications/research.html (behöver registrering)
• Scenarios and University Planninghttp://aair.org.au/jir/Oct03/Conway.pdf
• Scenario Planning: Springboard for Transforming University http://wwwnew.franciscan.edu/home2/Content/dean/PAPERS/Strategic%2520Planning/1073.pdf- Handouts: http://www.ncahlc.org/download/annualmeeting/08Handouts/