SCENARIO PROCESS for

SCENARIO PROCESSfor

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Designed byMichael BraitoMarianne Penker

KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION

participatoryprocess

Outline

1. Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration

2. Thinking of tomorrow – Why and how?

3. Thinking of tomorrow – Scenario PlanningTheoretical introduction

4. The Scenario Process (Step 1 – 5)Step 1: Defining the project boundariesStep 2: Identifying the driving forcesStep 3: Analysing the driving forcesStep 4: Scenario generationStep 5: Scenario transfer

19.04.23 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 2


Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable development!

The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to

enhance sustainable development.

1. Each discipline is important!2. Concentrating on one subject is

failing in seeing other aspects.3. Learning from each other …4. … to recognize the big picture.

Why is this so crucial for sustainable development?

Sustainable development can only be reached ifhuman beings work

together.

Sustainable development can only be reached ifhuman beings work

together.

• Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge.

• A systematic integration of a range of research-informed judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experience-based knowledge is often the best way forward.

KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION


Methods of Knowledge Integration

• “In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research question and the process aims to enable the formation of a combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment being informed by the best research evidence” (McDonald et al. 2009).

• Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see McDonald et al. 2009), for instance:– Citizens’ jury,– Conference,– Delphi technique,– Open space technology,

– Scenario Planning (THINKING OF TOMORROW).


Thinking of Tomorrow

WHY and HOW!?

The complexity of today and tomorrow


Our world, our socio-economic system is changing rapidly and unpredictable.

A number of issues follow their own future path, but

at the same time, they interact not only with each other but with any number of …

macro-economicmacro-economic

politicalpolitical

ruralrural

etc.etc.ecologicalecological

techno-logical

techno-logical

socialsocial regulatoryregulatory

regionalregional

The problem of limited points of views• To analyse complex systems we reduce the

complexity.

• In doing this, we tend to stop gathering detail and select one path forward that seems the most likely one.


macro-economicmacro-economic

politicalpolitical

ruralruralecologicalecological

techno-logical

techno-logical

socialsocial regulatoryregulatory

regionalregional

etc.etc.

These limited points of views may become a straitjacket, not allowing us to see the big picture.

Thinking of tomorrow – Why and How?

“A major focus is on how the future might evolve from today’s point-in-time to the horizon year of the scenario – say 15-20 years hence.

Scenario thinking analyses the relationships between:

• the critical uncertainties (as they resolve themselves);

• important predetermined trends (such as demographics), and

• the behaviour of actors who have a stake in the particular future (who tend to act to preserve and enhance their own interests)”

(Wright and Cairns 2011, 9).


Knowledge Integration – dealing with unknowns/uncertainties• Scenario planning combines possibilities to

form a manageable set of scenarios.

• It helps “to sketch a broad spectrum of possible developments options” (Penker and

Wytrzens 2005).


• Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local knowledge)

• Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics’ (Jungermann and Thuring 1987)See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and plausibility.

• Exploring the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of cause/effect and chronologyRealise that the possibilities are not unlimited.

AIMS of ‘scenario thinking’


AIM of System Intervention

• Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and unknown).

• Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial uncertainty).

• Enhance openness for new ways instead of moving always on the worn-out paths.


Thinking of TomorrowHOW?

Scenario Planning

How to use scenarios

Scenarios can fulfill several and different functions:

•explorative and knowledge function,

•communication function,

•aim building function, and

•decision making and strategy function.

The PROCESS is as important as the OUTCOME!


The scenario funnel

Scenario thinking gives you the opportunity to set intervention today,because it shows you what will have a major impact in the future.


Scenario techniques

Trend scenario based on driving forces

Effect Analysis

Consistency Analysis

Cross-Impact-Analysis

Intuitive Logics

Normativ-narrative Scenarios

Systemic - formalised

Creative-narrative

Extrapolation of business as usual

Trend-Impact-Analyses

Extrapolation of business as usual

Trend-Impact-Analyses


The Scenario Process

The process of scenario planning



STEP 1Defining the project boundaries

Project boundaries of the exemplary scenario project

• Set the objectives. • Define boundaries and establish focus.• The objectives for the scenario planning should include

the following:

1. Thematic framework,2. Time horizon for the scenarios,3. Geographical scope of the scenarios,4. Stakeholder to be addressed by the project,5. Unavoidable constraints on future plans, and6. Definition and deadline for deliverables.




STEP 2Identifying the driving forces

What are ‘driving forces’?

• Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant at the present and cause changes in the system state over time (e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological).

• Main key factors facing the research topic

• Changes in society, politics, technology etc. are often the symptoms of more fundamental transformations.

• Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate direction or dimension.


Methods to identify driving forces I

Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-15 driving forces

Different methods exist:• Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”)• Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards• etc.


Methods to identify driving forces II

Systemic picture(all together or as a “World Café”)


Methods to identify driving forces III

Brainstorming/Brainwritingby using cards


Feedback

Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’ knowledge

• Literature research• Empirical research

– Field work– Interviews– Delphi Method– etc.




STEP 3Analysing the driving forces

Analysis of the driving forces and filtering


Identify the most relevant driving forces

RANKINGWhat is the magnitude of the impact of these driving forces on the development of the future of the system?


The ‘relevance/uncertainty’ matrix

4 dimension matrix to narrow the list of driving forces to the most relevant for differentiating scenarios.

We may be highly certain that something will happen (e.g. climate change) but highly uncertain as to what impact it may have (increasing storm activity, drought, flood?




STEP 4Scenario generation

Scenario Generation I

Select the two factors (A and B) that combine the greatest perceived relevance on the core issue with the greatest uncertainty as to what their impact will be.

4 dimensions matrix4 scenarios

Factor AFact

or B


Scenario Generation II

Factor AFact

or B

Scenario 2

Factor AFactor B

Scenarios should be:1.Plausible2.Distinctive3.Consistent4.Relevant5.Creative6.Challenging(Maack 2001, 73)


Story telling

• Add narratives to provide ‘rich descriptions’ of four possible and plausible futures (e.g. “one day of Mister X in the year 20xx”).

• Think carefully and deeply about sense making, logic, plausibility and possibility of what you are writing.


Story telling

• geographical maps• timelines• story hands• story seeds• storyboards• journeys (A to B;

A to B to A)• cumulative block

graphs• emotions graphs• story mountains

1. Creative title (highlighting the central message

2. Brief summation that explains the title and sums up the elements of the story

3. Smooth narratives that are easy to read and understand

• What is Mr. X on the 1st May 2030 doing?• How does the world look like?




STEP 5Scenario transfer

Scenario Transfer I

The final stage of the Scenario Process is the dissemination of the message and its implementation on the ground.

Backcasting• Focuses on finding options that satisfy long-term targets

(Börjes et. al. 2005)

• What activities/measures have to be taken to reach the preferred scenario?


Scenario Transfer II

Scenario 1 Scenario 4Scenario 2

Scenario 3

What are the implications of

this world?

What is the best strategy

for dealing with this

situation? What are the major opportunities and

threats in this scenario?

Which scenario do we prefer?


Enjoy your scenario process

References

Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In Perez, P. and Batten, D. (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. 95-107.

Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm: US AB Royal Institute of Technology.

Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M., 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley.

Maack, J., 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers.

McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research Integration using dialogue methods. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia.

Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189.

Wright, G. and Cairns, G., 2011. Scenario Thinking: Practical approaches to the future. London, Palgrave.


Michael Braito Expertise•Environmental economics and environmental policy•Sustainable development•Rural development•Optimisation and valuation of managerial processes•Analysis and economic valuation of societal processes

Institute for Sustainable Economic DevelopmentDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaFeistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria

http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1

Marianne Penker

Expertise•Rural development•Implementation Research •Property Rights•Rural Governance •Landscape Governance•Conservation and Environmental Policy

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