SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.

SCENARIO PLANNINGSCENARIO PLANNING

THE PURPOSE OF THIS THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TOWORKSHOP IS TO

• UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNINGBEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING

• PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON

INTERESTINTEREST

• IN A DEFINED TIME FRAMEIN A DEFINED TIME FRAME

IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE COMPETITIVENESSCOMPETITIVENESS

ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY

EARLYEARLY

THIS HAS BEEN CALLEDTHIS HAS BEEN CALLED

COMPETITION FOR INDUSTRY COMPETITION FOR INDUSTRY FORESIGHTFORESIGHT

ENTERPRISES SHOULD NOT ENTERPRISES SHOULD NOT LOOK FOR ONE VISIONARY LOOK FOR ONE VISIONARY

VIEWVIEW

AS IT WILL CORRESPOND TO AS IT WILL CORRESPOND TO THE GENERALLY EXPECTED THE GENERALLY EXPECTED

VIEWVIEW

INSTEAD THEY SHOULD INSTEAD THEY SHOULD TRY TO ACQUIRE VARIOUS TRY TO ACQUIRE VARIOUS

VIEWSVIEWS

WHICH DESCRIBE THE WHOLE WHICH DESCRIBE THE WHOLE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIESWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIES

THE FUTURE IS NOT A SINGLE THE FUTURE IS NOT A SINGLE UNIFORM STATEUNIFORM STATE

BUT AN ONGOING BUT AN ONGOING PROCESSPROCESS

THAT REFLECTS THE THAT REFLECTS THE PLENITUDE OF HUMAN LIFEPLENITUDE OF HUMAN LIFE

THE FUTURE INCLUDESTHE FUTURE INCLUDES

• ALL THE THINGS WE LEARN ABOUT ALL THE THINGS WE LEARN ABOUT OURSELVES AND THE WORLDOURSELVES AND THE WORLD

• ALL THE INCREMENTAL ALL THE INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS WE DISCOVERIMPROVEMENTS WE DISCOVER

• ALL NEW IDEASALL NEW IDEAS

• ALL TE NEW WAYS WE EXPRESS ALL TE NEW WAYS WE EXPRESS THEM AND RECOMBINE THEMTHEM AND RECOMBINE THEM

THE FUTURE IS A SYSTEMTHE FUTURE IS A SYSTEM

• NATURALNATURAL

• OUT OF ANYONE’S CONTROLOUT OF ANYONE’S CONTROL

• DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY AND DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY AND TRENDSTRENDS

• AND INDIVIDUAL ATTEMPTS TO AND INDIVIDUAL ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL ITCONTROL IT

SCCENARIOSSCCENARIOS

ARE ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF ARE ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE FUTURETHE FUTURE

SCENARIO PLANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ORIGINATES FROMORIGINATES FROM

HERMAN KAHN andHERMAN KAHN and

ANTHONY WIENERANTHONY WIENER

THE SCHEMES OF OUR THE SCHEMES OF OUR MENTAL MAPSMENTAL MAPS

LEAD US TO IMAGINE LEAD US TO IMAGINE FUTURES THAT ARE SPECIFIC FUTURES THAT ARE SPECIFIC

TO EACH ONE OF USTO EACH ONE OF US

AND THAT DEPEND ON OUR AND THAT DEPEND ON OUR PERCEPTIONS OF THE PASTPERCEPTIONS OF THE PAST

BASED ON WHICHBASED ON WHICH

WE MAKE ASSUMPTIONSWE MAKE ASSUMPTIONS

THE FUTURE TELLS US WHO THE FUTURE TELLS US WHO WE AREWE ARE

• AS INDIVIDUALSAS INDIVIDUALS

• AS A CIVILIZATIONAS A CIVILIZATION

DEPENDING ON PERSONAL DEPENDING ON PERSONAL INCLINATIONSINCLINATIONS

THE FUTURE WILL BE THE FUTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY ROSY OR EXTREMELY ROSY OR

EXTREMELY GRIMEXTREMELY GRIM

WE CAN SEE IT ASWE CAN SEE IT AS

• STATICSTATIC

• REGULATEDREGULATED

• ENGINEEREDENGINEERED

OR WE CAN SEE IT ASOR WE CAN SEE IT AS

• DYNAMICDYNAMIC

• IN CONSTANT CREATIONIN CONSTANT CREATION

• TO BE DISCOVERED AS A PLACE OF TO BE DISCOVERED AS A PLACE OF LEARNINGLEARNING

• A PLACE OF INTENSE COMPETITIONA PLACE OF INTENSE COMPETITION

TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN ASAS

• AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN CREATIVITYCREATIVITY

• LEADING TO AN INVITING FUTURELEADING TO AN INVITING FUTURE

OR AS A SCARY KILLING OR AS A SCARY KILLING THINGTHING

A TRAP WE MUST AVOIDA TRAP WE MUST AVOID

IS FALLING INTO SCIENCE IS FALLING INTO SCIENCE FICTIONFICTION

IF ONE DROPS IF ONE DROPS FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC

CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS

ANYTHING BECOMES ANYTHING BECOMES POSSIBLEPOSSIBLE

THE FUTURE IS NOT THE FUTURE IS NOT PREDICTABLEPREDICTABLE

SCENARIO PLANNING SCENARIO PLANNING GIVES USGIVES US

DIFFERENT SIGHTS OF THE DIFFERENT SIGHTS OF THE FUTUREFUTURE

SCENARIO PLANNING IS SCENARIO PLANNING IS MORE A THINKING INTO THE MORE A THINKING INTO THE

FUTUREFUTURE

THAN A PREDICTIONTHAN A PREDICTION

SCENARIOS CAN BE SCENARIOS CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO THREE MAJOR CLASSIFIED INTO THREE MAJOR

CATEGORIESCATEGORIES• INTUITIVE LOGIC BASED ON INTUITIVE LOGIC BASED ON

ORGANIZED COHERENT AND PLAUSIBLE ORGANIZED COHERENT AND PLAUSIBLE THEMESTHEMES

• TREND-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON TREND-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF

DIFFERENT KEY FACTORSDIFFERENT KEY FACTORS• CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS COMBINING ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS COMBINING DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS IN NEW WAYS DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS IN NEW WAYS

INTUITIVE LOGIC AND INTUITIVE LOGIC AND TREND IMPACT TREND IMPACT

SCENARIOSSCENARIOS

ARE STRATEGIC THINKING ARE STRATEGIC THINKING TOOLSTOOLS

CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS SCENARIOSSCENARIOS

FOCUS ON QUANTITATIVE FOCUS ON QUANTITATIVE PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS

THE FUTURE MAY BE THE FUTURE MAY BE CONSIDERED AS EMERGING CONSIDERED AS EMERGING FROM THE INTERACTIION OFFROM THE INTERACTIION OF

• EVENTSEVENTS

• TRENDSTRENDS

• IMAGESIMAGES

• ACTIONSACTIONS

EVENTS ARE THOSE EVENTS ARE THOSE THINGS WHICH MAKE THINGS WHICH MAKE

MANY PEOPLEMANY PEOPLE

DOUBT THE EFFICACY OF DOUBT THE EFFICACY OF THINKING ABOUT THE THINKING ABOUT THE

FUTURE AT ALLFUTURE AT ALL

THINGS JUST SEEM TO THINGS JUST SEEM TO HAPPENHAPPEN

WHAT IS GOING TO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXTHAPPEN NEXT

SEEMS UTTERLY SEEMS UTTERLY UNKNOWABLEUNKNOWABLE

SEPTEMBER 11, 2002SEPTEMBER 11, 2002

IS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EVENTIS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EVENT

THE 1929 STOCK MARKET THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASHCRASH

IS ANOTHER EXAMPLEIS ANOTHER EXAMPLE

SOMETIMES THE SOMETIMES THE SIGNIFCANCE OF AN SIGNIFCANCE OF AN

EVENTEVENT

IS NOT IMMEDIATEIS NOT IMMEDIATE

AN EXAMPLE WOULD BEAN EXAMPLE WOULD BE

THE DISCOVERY OF FIRETHE DISCOVERY OF FIRE

OR THE INVENTION OF THE OR THE INVENTION OF THE COMPUTERCOMPUTER

THERE ARE THREE TYPES OF THERE ARE THREE TYPES OF TRENDSTRENDS

• A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT AND OF THE PASTAND OF THE PAST

• CYCLICAL TRENDSCYCLICAL TRENDS

• EMERGING ISSUES OR EMERGING ISSUES OR DISCONTINUITIESDISCONTINUITIES

TRENDS CONTINUING THE TRENDS CONTINUING THE PRESENT AND THE PAST CAN PRESENT AND THE PAST CAN

BE IDENTIFIED THROUGHBE IDENTIFIED THROUGH• CONTEMPLATING OUR OWN LIFE CONTEMPLATING OUR OWN LIFE

EXPERIENCESEXPERIENCES

• SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSISSOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

• HISTORICAL ANALYSISHISTORICAL ANALYSIS

AN EXAMPLE ISAN EXAMPLE IS

THE CONTINUED THE CONTINUED PRIVATIZATION OF SOCIETYPRIVATIZATION OF SOCIETY

STARTED IN ENGLANDSTARTED IN ENGLAND

IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURYIN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY

WITH THE LAW ON WITH THE LAW ON ENCLOSURESENCLOSURES

THESE LAWS PRIVATIZEDTHESE LAWS PRIVATIZED

THE COMMON FEUDAL LANDSTHE COMMON FEUDAL LANDS

AND ALLOWEDAND ALLOWED

THE PURCHASING AND THE PURCHASING AND SELLING OF THESE LANDSSELLING OF THESE LANDS

THIS RESULTED IN A THIS RESULTED IN A DRAMATIC CHANGEDRAMATIC CHANGE

IN THE RELATIONSHIP IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEN AND LANDBETWEEN MEN AND LAND

MEN NO LONGER BELONGED MEN NO LONGER BELONGED TO THE LANDTO THE LAND

THEY OWNED ITTHEY OWNED IT

THE RELATIONSHIP THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PEOPLEBETWEEN PEOPLE

BECAME MONETARYBECAME MONETARY

MEDIEVAL SOCIETY WASMEDIEVAL SOCIETY WAS

COMMUNALCOMMUNAL

PEASANTS POOLED THEIR PEASANTS POOLED THEIR LANDLAND

CATTLE GRAZED ON CATTLE GRAZED ON COMMUNAL LANDCOMMUNAL LAND

BY ENCLOSING LAND WIH BY ENCLOSING LAND WIH THE USE OF OBSTACLESTHE USE OF OBSTACLES

FREE MOVEMENT OF MEN FREE MOVEMENT OF MEN AND ANIMALS WAS HINDEREDAND ANIMALS WAS HINDERED

THESE LAWS WERE PASSED THESE LAWS WERE PASSED IN MOST EUROPEAN IN MOST EUROPEAN

COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

FROM THE SIXTEENTH TO THE FROM THE SIXTEENTH TO THE NINETEENTH CENTURYNINETEENTH CENTURY

AND LED TO URBANIZATIONAND LED TO URBANIZATION

TODAY, ALL THE LAND IN TODAY, ALL THE LAND IN THE WORLDTHE WORLD

IS OWNED BY SOMEONEIS OWNED BY SOMEONE

EXCEPT IN THE ANTARTICEXCEPT IN THE ANTARTIC

OTHER SPACES HAVE BEEN OTHER SPACES HAVE BEEN ENCLOSEDENCLOSED

• OCEANSOCEANS

• AIR SPACEAIR SPACE

• HERTZIAN SPACEHERTZIAN SPACE

SINCE 1971 ENCLOSURES SINCE 1971 ENCLOSURES ARE BEING SET UPARE BEING SET UP

AROUND OUR GENETIC MAKE-AROUND OUR GENETIC MAKE-UPUP

IN 1971 ANANDA IN 1971 ANANDA CHAKRABARTYCHAKRABARTY

ATTEMPTED TO PATENT AN ATTEMPTED TO PATENT AN OIL-ABSORBING BACTERIAOIL-ABSORBING BACTERIA

INITIALLY THE INITIALLY THE APPLICATION WAS APPLICATION WAS

REJECTEDREJECTED

SINCE US LEGISLATION DOES SINCE US LEGISLATION DOES NOT ALLOW THE NOT ALLOW THE

PATENTABILITY OF LIVING PATENTABILITY OF LIVING ORGANISMSORGANISMS

AFTER SEVERAL COURT AFTER SEVERAL COURT CASESCASES

IN 1980 THE SUPREME COURT IN 1980 THE SUPREME COURT GRANTED THE PATENTGRANTED THE PATENT

IN 1995 THE US PATENT IN 1995 THE US PATENT OFFICEOFFICE

ISSUED THE FIRT PATENT ON ISSUED THE FIRT PATENT ON A CELL LINE TAKEN ON AN A CELL LINE TAKEN ON AN INDIGENOUS POPULATIONINDIGENOUS POPULATION

THE US GOVERNMENT THE US GOVERNMENT WITHDREW THIS PATENTWITHDREW THIS PATENT

UNDER PRESSURE FROM UNDER PRESSURE FROM SOUTH PACIFIC STATESSOUTH PACIFIC STATES

CYCLICAL TRENDSCYCLICAL TRENDS

HAVE THEIR ROOTS IN THE HAVE THEIR ROOTS IN THE DISTANT PASTDISTANT PAST

THEY ARE IDENTIFIED THEY ARE IDENTIFIED THROUGHTHROUGH

HISTORICAL ANALYSISHISTORICAL ANALYSIS

EUGENISMEUGENISM

IS AN EXAMPLEIS AN EXAMPLE

THE AMERICAN THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENTSIA FAVORS INTELLIGENTSIA FAVORS

EUGENISMEUGENISM

SINCE THE BEGINNING OF SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURYTHE TWENTIETH CENTURY

IT APPEARS EVERY TIME IT APPEARS EVERY TIME SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO

CONTAINCONTAIN• POVERTYPOVERTY

• CRIMINALITYCRIMINALITY

• SOCIAL TURBULENCESOCIAL TURBULENCE

THE 1929 CRISIS SHOWED THE 1929 CRISIS SHOWED ALL PEOPLEALL PEOPLE

SUFFERED ALIKESUFFERED ALIKE

SOCIAL SOLIDARITYSOCIAL SOLIDARITY

DISPLACED EUGENISMDISPLACED EUGENISM

HITLER’S EUGENIST LAWSHITLER’S EUGENIST LAWS

ALSO LED THE US TO REACT ALSO LED THE US TO REACT NEGATIVELYNEGATIVELY

EUGENISTIC EUGENISTIC CONSIDERATIONSCONSIDERATIONS

ARE CENTRAL TO ARE CENTRAL TO BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY

EMERGING ISSUES ARE EMERGING ISSUES ARE EVENTS IN THE FUTUREEVENTS IN THE FUTURE

THAT ARE BARELY VISIBLE IN THAT ARE BARELY VISIBLE IN THE PRESENT AND NON-THE PRESENT AND NON-EXISTENT IN THE PASTEXISTENT IN THE PAST

EXAMPLES OF EMERGING EXAMPLES OF EMERGING ISSUES AREISSUES ARE

• NEW TECHNOLOGIESNEW TECHNOLOGIES

• CHANGES IN OUR LIVING CHANGES IN OUR LIVING ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

WE ALL HAVE A PERSONALWE ALL HAVE A PERSONAL

IMAGE OF THE FUTUREIMAGE OF THE FUTURE

AND WE TAKE ACTIONSAND WE TAKE ACTIONS

WITH THE INTENTION OF WITH THE INTENTION OF INFLUENCING THAT FUTUREINFLUENCING THAT FUTURE

BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY

AN EVENT THAT COULD AN EVENT THAT COULD IMPACT BIOTECHNOLOGYIMPACT BIOTECHNOLOGY

WOULD BE THE DISCOVERY WOULD BE THE DISCOVERY OF UNCONVENTIONAL FORMS OF UNCONVENTIONAL FORMS

OF LIFEOF LIFE

A CYCLICAL TREND A CYCLICAL TREND IMPACTING IMPACTING

BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY

IS THE MOVE AWAY FROM IS THE MOVE AWAY FROM NATURAL TO SYNTHETIC NATURAL TO SYNTHETIC

PRODUCTSPRODUCTS

AND BACK AGAIN TO NATURAL AND BACK AGAIN TO NATURAL PRODUCTSPRODUCTS

ACCORDING TO A 2001 ACCORDING TO A 2001 McKINSEY REPORTMcKINSEY REPORT

BY 2010 BIOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE A BY 2010 BIOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE A COMPETITIVE WAY OF PRODUCING COMPETITIVE WAY OF PRODUCING ABOUT A FIFTH OF THE WORLD’S ABOUT A FIFTH OF THE WORLD’S

CHEMICAL OUTPUT BY VALUECHEMICAL OUTPUT BY VALUE

AN EMERGING TREND OR AN EMERGING TREND OR DISCONTINUITYDISCONTINUITY

IS THE USE OF IS THE USE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR ENERGY GENERATIONENERGY GENERATION

AND IN PARTICULARAND IN PARTICULAR

HYDROGENHYDROGEN

THROUGH THE CREATION THROUGH THE CREATION OF A BACTERIAOF A BACTERIA

WITH A COMPLETELY WITH A COMPLETELY SYNTHETIC GENOMESYNTHETIC GENOME

OTHER ENTIRELYOTHER ENTIRELY

NEW PRODUCTSNEW PRODUCTS

SUCH ASSUCH AS

LIVING FUEL CELLSLIVING FUEL CELLS

A HAUNTING IMAGEA HAUNTING IMAGE

FRANKENSTEINFRANKENSTEIN

MAN SUBSTITUTING MAN SUBSTITUTING HIMSELFHIMSELF

TO DIVINE CREATIONTO DIVINE CREATION

A MAD SCIENTISTA MAD SCIENTIST

HEEDLESS OF HUMANITY’S HEEDLESS OF HUMANITY’S GOODGOOD

A MODERN PROMETHEUSA MODERN PROMETHEUS

MAN IS NOT ABOUT TO MAN IS NOT ABOUT TO CREATE HUMANSCREATE HUMANS

WITH OFF-THE-SHELF WITH OFF-THE-SHELF CHEMICALSCHEMICALS

BUT MAY SOON BE ABLEBUT MAY SOON BE ABLE

TO MANIPULATE HUMAN LIFETO MANIPULATE HUMAN LIFE

OR BREAK INTER-SPECIES OR BREAK INTER-SPECIES BARRIERSBARRIERS

AND CREATE NEW LIFE AND CREATE NEW LIFE FORMSFORMS

ONE OF THE FIRST ONE OF THE FIRST EXPERIMENTS WAS EXPERIMENTS WAS

UNDERTAKEN IN 1984UNDERTAKEN IN 1984

IN GREAT BRITAIN WITH THE IN GREAT BRITAIN WITH THE CREATION OF A SHEEP-GOATCREATION OF A SHEEP-GOAT

RECENTLY A HUMAN EAR HAS RECENTLY A HUMAN EAR HAS BEEN GROWNBEEN GROWN

ON THE BACK OF MICEON THE BACK OF MICE

WHETHER MORE SUCH WHETHER MORE SUCH COMBINATIONS WILL BE COMBINATIONS WILL BE

POSSIBLEPOSSIBLE

DEPENDS ON NATUREDEPENDS ON NATURE

AND GOVERNMENTAL AND GOVERNMENTAL ACTIONSACTIONS

OTHER GOVERNMENTAL OTHER GOVERNMENTAL ACTIONS INCLUDEACTIONS INCLUDE

• POSSIBLE BANNINGPOSSIBLE BANNING

• AVAILABILITY OF FEDERAL FUNDSAVAILABILITY OF FEDERAL FUNDS

AND THE PATENTABILITY OF AND THE PATENTABILITY OF LIVING ORGANISMSLIVING ORGANISMS

WITH THE EXCEPTION, AT WITH THE EXCEPTION, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING, LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING,

OF HUMAN BEINGSOF HUMAN BEINGS

AS THIS WOULD BE CONTRARY AS THIS WOULD BE CONTRARY TO THE ANTI-SLAVERY LAWSTO THE ANTI-SLAVERY LAWS

IT IS, HOWEVER, POSSIBLE TO IT IS, HOWEVER, POSSIBLE TO PATENTPATENT

• EMBRYOSEMBRYOS

• FETUSESFETUSES

• ORGANSORGANS

• TISSUESTISSUES

• CELLULAR LINESCELLULAR LINES

• GENESGENES

WE WILL NOW LISTWE WILL NOW LIST

• TRENDSTRENDS

• IMAGESIMAGES

• ACTIONSACTIONS

THAT WE SEETHAT WE SEE

IMPACTING THE REALM OF IMPACTING THE REALM OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE

COMING TEN YEARSCOMING TEN YEARS

SOME SUGGESTIONSSOME SUGGESTIONS

• WE WILL DEVELOP A HUMAN SUB-SPECIESWE WILL DEVELOP A HUMAN SUB-SPECIES

• SPECIES HYBRIDIZATION WILL LEAD TO SPECIES HYBRIDIZATION WILL LEAD TO NEW FOOD SOURCESNEW FOOD SOURCES

• AMORTALITYAMORTALITY

• CHOICE OF CHILD’S SEXCHOICE OF CHILD’S SEX

• WE WILL BE ABLE TO HYBERNATE AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO HYBERNATE AND THUS TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES IN SPACETHUS TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES IN SPACE