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Scaling-up Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and the Use of Climate Information in Georgia

Georgia | United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

23 November 2016

Project/Programme Title: Scaling-up Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and the Use ofClimate Information in Georgia

Country/Region: Georgia

Accredited Entity: UNDP

National Designated Authority: Mr. Teimuraz Murgulia, First Deputy Minister of Environment andNatural Resources Protection of Georgia

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 1 OF 18

Please submit the completed form to [email protected]

I. Project / Programme Information 1.1. Project / Programme

Name Scaling-up Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and the Use of Climate Information in Georgia

1.2. Project or Programme Project 1.3. Country (ies) / Region Georgia 1.4. National Designated Authority(ies)

Mr. Teimuraz Murgulia, First Deputy Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia, E‐mail: [email protected]

1.5. Accredited Entity UNDP

1.6. Executing entity / Beneficiary

Executing Entity: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia (MOE) through the National Environmental Agency of Georgia (NEA)

Beneficiaries: up to 1.7 Million people at risk of climate-induced extreme events and hazards

1.7. Access modality Direct ☐ International ☒ 1.8. Project size category (total investment, million USD)

Micro (≤10) ☐ Small (10<x≤50) ☒ Medium (50<x≤250) ☐ Large (>250) ☐

1.9. Mitigation / Adaptation focus Mitigation ☐ Adaptation ☒ Cross-cutting ☐

1.10. Results areas (mark all that apply)

Which of the following targeted results areas does the proposed project/programme address?

Reduced emissions from: ☐ Energy access and power generation

(E.g. on-grid, micro-grid or off-grid solar, wind, geothermal, etc.)

☐ Low emission transport (E.g. high-speed rail, rapid bus system, etc.)

☐ Buildings, cities, industries and appliances (E.g. new and retrofitted energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient equipment for companies and

supply chain management, etc.)

☐ Forestry and land use (E.g. forest conservation and management, agroforestry, agricultural irrigation, water treatment and management, etc.)

Increased resilience of: ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities

(E.g. mitigation of operational risk associated with climate change – diversification of supply sources and supply chain management, relocation of manufacturing facilities and warehouses, etc.)

☐ Health and well-being, and food and water security (E.g. climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation systems, etc.)

☒ Infrastructure and built environment (E.g. sea walls, resilient road networks, etc.)

☐ Ecosystems and ecosystem services (E.g. ecosystem conservation and management, ecotourism, etc.)

1.11. Project / programme life span 6 years

1.12. Estimated implementation start and end Date

Start: January 2017 End: December 2022

1 Please use the following naming convention for the file name: “[CN]-[Agency short name]-[Date]-[Serial number]” (e.g. CN-ABC-20150101-1).

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II. Project/Programme Details The Fund requires the following preliminary information in order to promptly assess the eligibility of project/programme investment. These requirements may vary depending on the nature of the project/programme.

2.1. Project/programme description (including objectives)

Context and Problem Setting Georgia is a transcontinental country situated between the Black Sea to the west and the Caucasus mountains to the north, with an area of 69,700 km2 and a population of 3.7 million. 80% of the territory of Georgia is mountainous, with highest and lowest elevations of 5,201 metres (Mount Shkhara) and below the mean sea level (Black Sea, Kolkheti lowlands). A complex mountainous topography makes the country more prone to climatic extremes and hazards. There are four main climate-induced hazards experienced in Georgia, all of which have been observed to be intensifying and increasing in frequency over time. They are floods (due to heavy rainfall and snowmelt), hydrologically-induced geological hazards (including landslides, mudflow, debris flows), droughts and severe winds and hailstorms. Coupled with significant levels of exposure and vulnerability, these events have a substantial negative impact on the national economy and people. According to the government, over the last 40 years economic losses from natural hazards of hydro-meteorological and geological origin exceeded USD 14 billion2. More than 80% of the victims, economic damage caused by disasters, and eco-migrants come from highland areas resulting in abandonment of villages. The most recent devastating flooding and landslide disaster occurred in June of 2015 affecting Georgia’s capital Tbilisi (population over 1 million) and had significant socio-economic consequences for the Georgia’s capital: 19 people killed, 3 people missing, 67 families displaced, and around 700 people directly affected overall. The economic impact was equally high: USD 24.3 million in physical damage and USD 4.37 million in financial losses mainly within the housing, transportation, water management sectors. Georgia’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC (TNC) provides an evidence of the increasing impact of climate change on the frequency and severity of hydrological and meteorological disasters. In the recent past, the drought cycle of Georgia has changed from 15-20 years to 6 years; in 2007-2009 the frequency of strong winds increased to 6-12 times per year compared to 1 to 4 times per year in the previous decade; there was double the total number of recorded floods during the period 1992-2013 compared to 1960-1991; there was 4 times the total number of recorded landslides during the period 1992-2013 compared to 1960-1991. The TNC also forecasts future warming and changes in seasonality and intensity of rainfall across the country that will result in further increased flood and rainfall-induced landslide risks, frequency and severity of winds and hail storms, and droughts. The TNC long term climate change scenarios indicate more extremes as prolonged rainfall events, concentrated in a short period of time with the potential to generate more runoff during these short periods, thereby increasing the potential for flash flooding (due to high peak river flows), mudflows and landslides. The detailed climate change profile of Georgia will be presented in the full project proposal and the feasibility study. Georgia’s INDC (2015) clearly identifies the problem of intensifying climate-induced extreme events as a priority for the adaptation action. The INDC specifically states that the “establishment of Early Warning Systems for climate related extreme events is considered as priority measure by the Government of Georgia” in the area of adaptation to climate change. In the baseline scenario Georgian population and economy will be facing increasing pressures from more frequent and severe hydrometeorological disasters due to climate change. Losses of lives and economic losses due to climate-induced disasters and associated impact on GDP and sovereignty rating3 will be growing. Scaling-up of tested EWS and risk transfer solutions (see below) will not be possible due to inadequate hazard and risk knowledge for most basins in Georgia, as well as a lack of monitoring stations on which such risk knowledge relies. Engagement of private sector into the delivery of climate information products and services and risk reduction activities will remain at nascent stage due to insufficient enabling environment and lack of reliable climate and hazard information. This GCF project is aimed at supporting the commitment of the Georgian government to avoid losses of lives and to reduce economic and infrastructure losses caused by climate-induced hydrometeorological disasters. The project will achieve this by nation-wide scaling-up of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) and setting up capacities for climate

2 Official Statement of the Government of Georgia at the Fourth Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, 19-23 May 2013, Geneva, available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/globalplatform/2013/programme/statements 3 S&P Analysis showed that climate change will exacerbate the negative sovereign rating impact arising from 1-in-250-year natural catastrophes by 20% on average. http://www.iccwbo.org/News/Articles/2015/The-impact-of-climate-change-on-sovereign-ratings/

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information services, accompanied with the reduction of exposure of the most vulnerable local communities to climate-induced hazards through community-based risk reduction measures. The GCF project will provide critical climate risk information that would enable the Government of Georgia implementing a number of nation-wide transformative policies for reducing exposure and vulnerability of population to climate-induced hazards, introducing cost-effective risk-transfer instruments and private sector engagement. The project will thus catalyze a paradigm shift in the climate-informed national disaster risk reduction and early warning approaches. The project innovation and transformative change will also include (a) participatory “Last Mile” communication solutions tailored to the needs of local communities; (b) a combination of structural and non-structural protection measures aimed at reducing exposure and increasing effectiveness of the early warning; (c) combining best available science and local knowledge for vulnerability assessment, hazard and risk mapping, disaster modelling and forecasting; (d) paving the way for private sector to deliver new climate information products and services. The project objective is to reduce exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through a well-functioning nation-wide multi-hazard early warning system and risk-informed local action. The project contributes to the achievement of GCF strategic-level impacts through increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities and regions; and increased resilience of infrastructure and the built environment to climate change threats. The project will contribute to the achievement of GCF indicator of the reduction in the number of people affected by climate-related disasters for Georgia’s population overall and with the focus on different vulnerable groups (through the application of social vulnerability approach). The project will deliver sustainable development benefits through:

1) Improving resilience of up to 1.71 Million people (which is based on socio-economics vulnerability assessment and equals to 40% of the population) including in the most vulnerable communities in mountainous rural areas as well as densely populated urban areas4;

2) Reducing economic losses; 3) Reduce the risks of flooding from extreme flood events to at least 102,000 people

annually5 4) Safeguarding development investments in the poorest mountainous regions of

Georgia. The project directly contributes to three Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and provide indirect contribution to another four SDGs (see section 4.3). The earlier UNDP-led assessments6 and pilot projects examined the existing barriers to an effective early warning and climate information services in Georgia: 1. Risk knowledge: Lack of

financial, technical and human capacities within the government to establish nation-wide hydro-meteorological monitoring, modelling, forecasting and warning

2. Climate information products: Lack of tailored climate information and warning products relevant and accessible by the public and private sector.

3. Dissemination and communication: limited access to and awareness of the use of warnings and climate information by the local communities for decision making and resilience building.

4 It is estimated that between $30 Million and $250 Million USD in annual average flood damages will occur in urban areas alone, by 2030 under Scenario A: IPCC 5th Ammendment report with RCP 4.5 (moderate climate change) and SSP2 (continued current socio-economic development trends) with 100 year Standard of Protection (SoP) ($30 Million) to no SoP ($250 Million) defences in place respectively. 5 Average annual population at risk of flooding from an extreme flood event. Source: World Resource Institute Aqueduct Global flood analyser – Flood Risk for Georgia – Scenario A: IPCC 5th Ammendment report with RCP 4.5 (moderate climate change) and SSP2 (continued current socio-economic development trends). 6 Towards a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Georgia

Number of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations (1900-2015) (source: NEA)

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4. Response capability: lack of knowledge and capacities among the most vulnerable

communities for reducing their exposure to residual risks and hazards.

The full description of the barriers will be provided in the full proposal. The GCF project will address these barriers building on and scaling-up the earlier successful pilots and prototypes. The project objective will be achieved through the following three interrelated Outputs: Output 1: Expanded hydro-meteorological observation network and modelling capacities secure reliable information on climate-induced hazards, vulnerability and risks The project will apply a unified methodology and tools for multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessment, mapping and monitoring based on the prototype developed through the UNDP/AF project in the Rioni basin. The project will support establishment of a centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, consisting of national e-Library, databases, information systems and knowledge portal. Local-level detailed hazard mapping and risk and vulnerability assessment will be developed. This output will be achieved through the following activities:

1) Activity 1.1: Rehabilitation of the hydrometric network (automatic level measuring system; mobile discharge meters; automatic meteo-stations; meteo-posts (rain gauges); radar; sets of mini radars; upper air sounding equipment ; agrometeorological stations, lightening detectors, super computer for strengthening early warning system; telecommunication system equipment). [$10,420,000 USD, partly co-financed by the Government of Georgia and donor funds]

2) Activity 1.2: Floodplain zoning based on hazard and risk maps for all major basins in Georgia and for key climate-induced hazards, using the most appropriate modern technologies and methods and aligned with international and regional standards. In particular, flood hazard and risk maps will be developed in line with EU Floods Directive requirements. Landslide and mudflow hazard and risk maps will build on the approach used for Rioni basin. Accurate digital elevation models such as LIDAR7 for all floodplains of Georgia for hazard modelling and mapping will be utilized. A comprehensive topographic survey of rivers through high risk areas will be undertaken. Historical hydrometeorological data for all Georgia required for all hazard and risk assessments will be digitised and systematised. Based on the national flood maps the project will implement the floodplain zoning policy developed by Rioni project. [$2,000,000 USD]

3) Activity 1.3: Introduction and implementation of methods and tools for the systematic gender-sensitive socio-economic vulnerability assessment, which will form the basis of strategic hazard management (cost-benefit analysis) for decision making and for prioritisation of resilience investments [$400,000 USD]

4) Activity 1.4: A centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, based on the output of DRR project MHRA methodology currently being developed. It will consist of national e-Library, databases, information systems and knowledge portal (web knowledge portal to increase awareness, provide interactive hazard maps, with integration with social media and possible mobile app to increase community engagement and allow two-way flow of information) [$400,000]. Component 1 Total = $13.22 Million (including $11.03 mln from GCF and $2.19 mln co-financing)

Output 2: Multi-hazard early warning system and new climate information products supported with effective national regulations, coordination mechanism and institutional capacities. The project will address gaps in national coordination and institutional set up for effective EWS resulting in a functioning coordination mechanism and communication protocols for early warning. Capacities of decision-makers and national institutions involved in generating, processing, communicating and using the warnings will be enhanced. National and local integrated Early Warning Systems by hazard and sectors will be developed and operationalized.

7 Accurate Digital Elevation data is needed for modelling hazards such as flooding and landslides. LiDAR is the most accurate dataset available for modelling of this kind and such data has only been acquired for Tbilisi (for modelling undertaken following the 2014 floods). DEM of a lower accuracy was acquired for Rioni floodplains. The data availability section of the feasibility report discusses all data needs and associated costs and shows that DEM data will cost between 0.5 and 1 Million USD for all floodplains of Georgia.

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1) Activity 2.1: Institutional and legal frameworks, public-private partnerships and associated institutional capacity building for the MHEWS and for the enhanced use of climate information by the public and private sector. Improved coordination and communication protocols for early warning. ($200,000USD)

2) Activity 2.2: Development and implementation of the MHEWS covering all basins in Georgia, building on the Rioni basin prototype and on the rehabilitated hydrometric network to be achieved through activity 1.2. This activity includes development of the telecommunications system to support the new EWS, and integration of telemetry system for near real time dissemination and use of EWS. The activity also includes training and capacity building for NEA’s hydrometeorological service on the data analysis, forecasting and packaging of the EW products. ($2,000,000USD)

3) Activity 2.3 Development of sector-tailored weather/climate based advisories for the main hydrometeorological hazards and dissemination through ICT/mobile, print, and radio channels. Private sector partnerships will be leveraged. ($250,000 USD)

4) Activity 2.4: Climate-informed planning platforms: Development of Multi-hazard risk Management plans ($500,000 USD); Municipal-level flood response and preparedness plans ($300,000 USD); and sector resilience and contingency plans for critical infrastructure within all sectors in Georgia ($500,000 USD)

Component 2 Total = $3.75 Million

Output 3: Improved community resilience through the implementation of the MHEWS and priority risk reduction measures. Through this output the project will secure delivery and use of the early warnings and climate advisories with end-users. Communities’ capacity to effectively utilize the EWS information and products and respond to climate-related disasters will be enhanced. In addition, the project will implement structural and non-structural intervention measures in high risk areas addressing most vulnerable communities (based on sound cost-benefit analysis using the socio-economic risk model) to reduce the risks that the EWS will be designed to address.

1) Activity 3.1: Implementation of community-based early warning schemes and community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM). Community based EWS will be implemented where appropriate to complement the fully integrated national EWS. Local communities (particularly women and vulnerable groups) will be trained to implement and maintain flood resilient non-structural intervention measures. Participatory community-based adaptation technologies and practices will be implemented in priority risk areas (e.g. establishing locally controlled and managed flood zones; erection of visual flood zone demarcation posts at strategic locations; watershed rehabilitation works such as construction of natural small scale defences with community involvement (through employment guarantee scheme) ($1,250,000 USD)

2) Activity 3.2: State public awareness and capacity building programme effectively deliver climate risk information and training to communities and local first-responders ($400,000 USD)

3) Activity 3.3: Based on Multi-hazard risk management plans developed in 2.4, design and implementation of non-structural (e.g. community agro-forestry and afforestation schemes on the flood plains), and where possible, structural intervention measures that would significantly reduce the risks against which the MHEWS will operate (i.e. identify any interventions that will potentially address several different hazards in a single solution, which will minimise the risks to population, e.g. provide protection against more frequently occurring and wide-spread risks or so-called extensive risks) ($8,500,000 USD, including $6 million for structural measures and $2.5 million for non-structural measures including agroforestry)

Component 3 Total = $10.15 Million National commitment of the Government of Georgia: Given the history and dynamics of natural hazards outlined above, and the observed increased frequency and intensification of such events, the Government of Georgia has long been committed to addressing natural hazard management and disaster risk reduction throughout its territory. This is reflected in the Georgia’s INDC and in a number of initiatives and projects dealing with the strengthening of capacity to address climate-induced hazards, strengthening of the legislative and policy framework for natural hazards and DRR, rehabilitation of observation networks and awareness raising programmes. While earlier projects have provided some improvements, due to their limited budgets and scope (e.g. geographic coverage), progress has not been comprehensive, which leaves Georgia, as a whole, sill exposed to these natural hazards and their devastating effects. The Government of Georgia is applying to GCF for support in consolidating and scaling-up earlier studies and projects to secure a comprehensive nation-wide system addressing climate-induced disaster risks faced by the population and economy.

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Baseline projects: The proposed GCF project will build upon and contribute to the implementation of the National Plan of Action for Capacity Development in DRR (2015-2019) and will scale-up pilot activities and achievements of the UNDP project “Developing Climate Resilient Flood and Flash Flood Management Practices to Protect Vulnerable Communities of Georgia” (Rioni project) financed by the Adaptation Fund (2012-2016) as well as another UNDP project “Strengthening National Disaster Risk Reduction System in Georgia”. In addition the GCF project will implement recommendations arising from the 2015 Tbilisi Disaster Needs Assessment Report prepared by the World Bank, UNDP and USAID experts and 2015 Tbilisi Disaster Recovery Vulnerability Reduction Plan supported by UNDP. These projects constitute the baseline for the GCF project. They are briefly outlined below and will be more fully described in the feasibility study to the full GCF proposal. In 2015 the Government of Georgia developed and approved the National Plan of Action for Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Reduction on the basis of the Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Assessment supported by UNDP in 2014. The Plan clearly reflects climate vulnerability and climate change as underlying risk factors and the needs for climate change adaptation actions. The proposed GCF project directly supports prioritized national actions under two of the five result areas of the national plan targeting improved information and knowledge on climate related disaster risks, enhanced early warning and innovation. As envisaged in the National Plan, capacity development activities under the monitoring and early warning pillar target development of:

(i) Unified methodology and tools for multi-hazard risk assessment, mapping and monitoring; (ii) Centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, consisting of national e-Library, databases, information systems and knowledge portal; (iii) Local-level detailed hazard mapping and risk assessment; and (iv) Early Warning Systems, national and local, by hazard and sectors; and end-to-end multi-hazard nation-wide integrated early warning system.

2015 Tbilisi Disasters Needs Assessment delivered findings on damage, losses and needs along with a series of recommendations for immediate, medium and long-term recovery. Recommendations included above all development of a multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) for Tbilisi, enhancing capacities for hazard monitoring and forecasting, raising risk awareness and performing community preparedness trainings and drills on a regular basis, developing a multi-hazard risk assessment for Tbilisi and other related measures. The medium and long-term recommendations above all highlighted the need for a detailed understanding of the hazard and risks posed by the combination of hydrometeorological and geological hazards and for adopting a comprehensive multi-hazard early warning system as one action in protecting the public and minimising the loss of life and minimisation of losses. The project “Developing Climate Resilient Flood and Flash Flood Management Practices to Protect Vulnerable Communities of Georgia” – Rioni Project (2012-2016; US$ 5mln) funded through the Adaptation Fund and UNDP supports the government and the communities of the target Rioni basin region to pilot an integrated approach to flood risk management. The approach involved enhancement of the flood risk management legislative and policy framework, technology transfer through the rehabilitation and upgrading of 25 hydrometric stations and introduction of modern hazard and risk modelling and mapping, and the introduction of an Early Warning System focusing on flood risks in the pilot Rioni basin. The study “Towards a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Georgia” (UNDP, November 2015) outlines recommendations for national-scale EWS. In addition the project has designed and built flood defences in 12 high risk areas and piloted agro-forestry and other direct adaptation and resilience measures. Based on the damage and loss assessment undertaken under this project approximately 290,000 (30%) of the population of the Rioni basin (one of 10 major river basins in Georgia) is at risk from flooding from the extreme flood event (equivalent of the 1 in 100 year flood with climate change considerations) which would result in £21 Million USD in agricultural damages and $100 Million in property damages. The analysis showed that property damages due to flooding from the 1 in 100 year flood will double under climate change, while agricultural damages due to flooding from the 1 in 100 year flood will increase by 25% under climate change in the Rioni basin. The project has made great strides in addressing these risks through its activities and has identified long-term strategic options for flood risk management, but there will need to be longer-term intervention in the Rioni to reduce these risks further8. It is clear that the results achieved to date, provide a good

8 A key project deliverable which is being prepared in 2016 is a long-term strategy for flood risk management for Rioni based on strategic intervention measures already identified through cost-benefit analysis using the socio-economic risk model developed by the project.

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foundation on which to achieve risk reduction here and for all other high risk areas of Georgia through scaling up. It should be noted that the Rioni project was specifically designed with upscaling in mind, hence many project activities and outputs have been undertaken at the local/regional level with the expectation that they will be implemented nationally. The GCF project will scale up the prototypes piloted by the Rioni project (including the hazard mapping, floodplain modelling and EWS) to include the other river basins and regions of Georgia and to encompass a broader range of key climate-induced hazards.

2.2. Background information on project/programme sponsor

The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia (MENRP) has a broad mandate in the field of environment and natural resources monitoring, management and protection that includes above all the monitoring and forecasting of natural and anthropogenic disasters, coordination of planning and implementation of preventive activities. The National Environmental Agency (NEA), under the MENRP, is mandated to monitor ongoing hydro-meteorological, geodynamic and geological events, as well as to provide monitoring of environmental pollution, to issue license permits for the exploitation of natural resources, and to ensure the sound functioning of monitoring systems. NEA is the keystone among the agencies of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection. Comprising 343 staff members nationwide, NEA is responsible for the preparation of normative and informational documents, forecasts and warning regarding existing and expected hydro-meteorological and geodynamic processes, geoecological conditions of the geological environment and the conditions of environmental pollution; permanent mapping of the territory, risk zoning and forecasting of coastline developments; the management of coast forming processes using engineering activities; the creation of environmental databases, metadata and ensuring its organisational management. NEA is divided into the departments of Hydrometeorology, Geology, Environment Pollution Monitoring and Licensing: The Climate Change Division of MENRP provides assessments of climate change impacts on the sectors of economy and ecosystems and prepares relevant predictions, develops the national plan for adaptation to climate change, coordinates the national communications to the UNFCCC and provides an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). MENRP established the Natural and Technological Hazards Management Service. This Service is in charge of the coordination and implementation oversight of environmental strategies and policies, planning of disaster risk reduction activities, setup of a database of DRR activities, and capacity development related to the Early Warning System. The Service hosts an informal forum for DRR stakeholders called the DRR Think-Tank of Georgia that unites representatives from 60 governmental, non-governmental and international organizations, as well as academia.

2.3. Market Overview

Not applicable. The public goods nature of the proposed project entails no revenue-generation or cost-recovery.

2.4. Regulation, taxation and insurance

For activities related to procurement of services, including training, through UNDP, according to the SBAA signed with the GOG, taxes are not applicable. Section 7 of the Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations provides, inter alia, that the United Nations, including its subsidiary organs, is exempt from all direct taxes, except charges for utilities services, and is exempt from customs duties and charges of a similar nature in respect of articles imported or exported for its official use. Capital assets to be delivered in the framework of the project will be insured as applicable. Equipment maintenance plans will be developed as part of the full project proposal. Further details on the regulations and insurance will be provided in the full proposal.

2.5. Implementation Arrangements

The project will be nationally implemented in line with the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement (SBAA, 1993), the UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) agreed between the UN and the Government of Georgia, and with the UNDP’s Country Programme Document (CPD) approved by UNDP’s Executive Board and Government of Georgia. UNDP is the Multilateral Implementing Entity for the Project. The Ministry of Environment and Natural resources Protection (MENRP) is the government institution that will act as the Implementing Partner/Executing Agency. The project will be implemented through MENRP’s National Environment Agency (NEA). NEA will be responsible for overall project implementation and will be the project executing entity. The project will engage with the other government agencies with relevant mandates including the Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure (MRDI), the Ministry of economy, Emergency management agency and others. NEA’s role in the framework of the project is fully in line with its leading institutional role in climate resilient natural disaster management. The MENRP/NEA will assume responsibility for the project implementation, and the timely and verifiable attainment of project objectives and outcomes. The NEA was the main implementing partner for the baseline projects discussed and have been the main recipient of extensive capacity building. They are therefore well placed to implement this proposed GCF project. The MENRP will nominate a high level official who will

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serve as the National Project Director for the project implementation. For the purpose of directing the project, the Project Executive Board (PEB) will be established and serve as ultimate decision-maker and ensure that the project remains on course to deliver the desired outcomes of the required quality. The Project Manager that will be recruited to ensure day-to-day management of the project, will submit quarterly progress reports for the previous period and a work plan for the next one. Further details will be provided in the full proposal.

III. Financing / Cost Information

3.1. Description of financial elements of the project / programme

Funds are being requested by the Government of Georgia in the form of grants, given the “public good” nature of the proposed climate-induced disaster risks reduction investments. It is unlikely that revenue streams will occur from these investments and hence loans or non-grant instruments will not be feasible. The GCF grant resources will be directed towards three key interconnected outcomes each of which have been requested by the Government of Georgia to enable a transformative nation-wide climate risk management policy and action. Direct risk reduction investments will be targeted at the most vulnerable communities to reduce their exposure to climate-induced hazards in combination with the early-warnings. Tentative breakdown of costs per component: Component/Outcome 1: Reliable information on climate-induced hazards, vulnerability and risks is available and effectively utilized for the early warning. Total GCF grant: US$ 11,030,000 Component/Outcome 2: Multi-hazard early warning system supported with an effective national regulations, coordination mechanism and communication protocols. Total GCF grant: US$ 3,750,000 Component/Outcome 3: Improved community resilience through the implementation of the MHEWS and priority vulnerability reduction measures at local level Total GCF grant: US$ 10,150,000 M&E: US& 400,000 PMC: US$ 1,240,000 Total GCF grant request: US$ 26,570,000 Co-financing: The Government of Georgia identified several sources of co-financing and partner initiatives to align with GCF financing. The project is fully aligned with the national government plans for strengthening the hydro-meteorological monitoring network and will leverage co-financing from bilateral and international donors. Further details on other co-financing will be provided in the full proposal. Co-financing for Output 1: US$ 2.19 mln for the rehabilitation and expansion of hydro-meteorological observation network Co-Financing for Output 3: US$ 15.1 Million for infrastructure projects which are related to river bank protection (based on an annual budget of US $2.5 Million over 6 years) Co-financing for Outputs 2: to be confirmed in the full proposal

3.2. Project Financing Information

Financial Instrument Amount Currency Tenor Indicative

Pricing Total Project

Financing (a) = (b) + (c)

43.860 million USD ($)

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(b) Requested

GCF Amount

(i) Senior Loans

(ii) Subordinated Loans

(iii) Equity

(iv) Guarantees

(v) Reimbursable grants *

(vi) Grants *

………………… ………………… ………………… …………………

…………………

26.570

million USD ($)

( ) years

( ) years

( ) %

( ) %

( ) % IRR

* Please provide detailed economic and financial justification in the case of grants.

Total Requested (i+ii+iii+iv+v+vi) 26.570 million

USD ($)

(c) Co-financing

Financial Instrument Amount Currency Name of Institution Seniority

Grant

Grant

Grant

0.190

0.100

1.900

15.100

million USD ($)

million USD ($)

million USD ($)

Options

Government of Japan

FAO

MRDI…………………

…………………

Lead financing institution: Ministry of

(d) Covenants n/a

(e) Conditions

precedent to disbursement

n/a

IV. Expected Performance against Investment Criteria

Please explain the potential of the Project/Programme to achieve the Fund’s six investment criteria as listed below.

4.1 Climate Impact Potential [Potential to achieve the GCF's objectives and results]

The project will contribute to the Fund level impact of increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities and regions; and increased resilience of infrastructure and the built environment to climate change threats. The project will generate critical nation-wide information on climate-induced disaster risks and hazards, develop risk models and zoning to enable implementation of exposure and vulnerability reduction policies and measures. Comparable efforts (EWs, climate information, and community-based DRM) have shown effective impact related to saving of lives, assets, and livelihoods. In Nepal, the community based EWS directly benefit over 80,000 people in communities around river basin systems9. Advanced EWS systems are estimated to be 100% effective in reducing loss of life by cyclones, 60% effective for floods, and 20% effective in case of drought. (Teisberg and Weiher (2009)). In Bhutan, EWS project has enhanced capacities of district and local level authorities and communities in disaster risk and climate risk management.10

9 http://practicalaction.org/page/docs/region_nepal/early-warning-saving-lives.pdf 10http://cfapp2.undp.org/gef/documents/1/g3722/g2_16676/Final%20Technical%20Review%20and%20Social%20IMpact%20Assessment%2EGLOF%20FSP%2Epdf

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Through the MHEWS and associated community-based risk reduction measures the project will:

• Directly benefit 1.71 million people in the most vulnerable mountainous regions of Georgia (list regions/districts), including 782, 537 women and girls.

• Minimize the risks to, on average, 750 people per year who are directly affected by natural hazards11

• Build resilience of 100,00012 people/year and improve resilience of social and physical infrastructure and livelihoods in through delivering reliable and tailored early warning information.

• Facilitate design and installation of new more resilient infrastructure projects. • Reduce annual average GDP losses which are predicted to be 1.3 Billion by 2030. • Through a national-wide preparedness and resilience building work the project will

help safeguarding national and international investments into development and poverty alleviation

• Indirect beneficiaries of the project would include the entire population of Georgia (3.7 Million) as a result of improvements to hazard resilience of infrastructure, reduced disruptions to business, reduced loss of lives and the safeguarding of livelihoods. In addition the safeguarding of GDP will protect Georgia’s sovereignty rating which will safeguard development.

4.2 Paradigm Shift Potential [Potential to catalyze impact beyond a one-off project or programme investment]

The paradigm shift from this project is expected from the transformative potential of the enhanced risk knowledge and capacities to use the climate information for planning, decision making and local risk reduction action. In response to the mounting climate change-induced hazards which is resulting in increased risk, vulnerability and exposure of the whole of the Georgian population, the project will enable Georgia to implement key adaptation technologies based on a well-developed knowledge base of all hazards. The approach will include the introduction of a unified monitoring, forecasting, early warning and emergency response system, the introduction of climate information products and the introduction of national adaptation policies and strategies that enhance climate resilient spatial planning. The project’s comprehensive approach to climate risk management integrates enhanced risk knowledge, improved coordination, partnerships and enabling environment, and the reduction of exposure to climate induced disaster risks. The GCF project will establish (consolidate and expand) a national hydro-meteorological observation network capable of providing sufficient climate and hazard data, build capacities for nation-wide risk mapping and modeling, produce definitive hazard and risk maps for all hazards, for the whole territory of Georgia, using unified and internationally recognized best practices, and implement a multi-hazard early warning system. The floodplain risk zoning approach piloted with the Rioni project will inform and catalyze development of several national policies and sectors (e.g. financial risk transfer schemes, agrometeorological advisories, etc.). Potential for scaling up and replication: The project will implement nation-wide scaling-up of the EWS and flood plain modeling and zoning approaches piloted at the Rioni river basin and thus will deliver a transformative change to climate risk information management and disaster risk reduction in Georgia. Specifically the project will: (i) expand the Rioni pilot EWS focused on floods to cover the other key climate-induced hydrological and meteorological hazards (mudflows, landslides, winds, hailstorms, droughts); (ii) scale-up the Rioni basin EWS to the national level; (iii) implement cost-effective community-based risk reduction measures in key locations prioritized based on gender-sensitive community vulnerability assessment. Despite availability of local pilots, without the GCF project Georgia will not be able to institute this nation-wide change due to the barriers outlined above. As the first step the GCF project will help consolidate and expand Georgia’s hydro-meteorological and agro-meteorological monitoring network to provide solid hazard and risk information to decision-makers and planners. The innovative approaches to DRR and climate risk management driven by the GCF project include but not limited to the following: (a) a participatory “Last Mile” communication solutions tailored to the needs of local communities; (b) a combination of structural and non-structural protection measures aimed at reducing risks and increasing effectiveness of the early warning; (c) combining best available science and local knowledge for vulnerability assessment, hazard and risk mapping, disaster modelling and

11 It should be noted that there is no definitive Disasters database for recording numbers affected, lives lost or damages and losses incurred for Georgia. This information is not currently systematically collected although the State Security and Crisis Management Council plan to start collecting. The figure provided here is based on out-of-date information that is being informally collected. However, it should be also noted that, even this data shows that at Disaster of all types always result in at least 1 life lost. 12 Annual average population at risk from the extreme flood based on Scenario A: IPCC 5th Ammendment report with RCP 4.5 (moderate climate change) and SSP2 (continued current socio-economic development trends). Source: World Resource Institute Aqueduct Global flood analyzer.

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forecasting; (d) agro-meteorological monitoring, forecasting and advisories for local farmers based on best international practices that do not currently exist in Georgia. Potential for knowledge and learning: The proposed GCF project has a great learning and knowledge transfer potential within Georgia but even more so in the Europe and Central Asia region. The products sought from the GCF project in Georgia are highly relevant to the other countries in the Caucasus, Balkans and Central Asia. UNDP is well equipped to ensure cross country learning and knowledge transfer. Contribution to the creation of an enabling environment, regulatory framework and policies: The project will address gaps in national coordination and institutional set up for effective EWS resulting in a functioning coordination mechanism, partnerships and information communication protocols for early warning. Capacities of decision-makers and national institutions involved in generating, processing and communicating the warnings and advisories will be enhanced. The risk knowledge and capacities established by the project will make it possible to transform the current government approach to compensations and recovery, to secure more efficient and fair use of public funds, to avoid maladaptation investments, and to improve adaptive capacities of the local communities. The project will create an enabling environment for the development of risk transfer systems and engaging private sector into disaster risk reduction sector. The project will also enable local communities to plan and implement low-cost community-based structural and non-structural adaptation measures including sustainable ecosystem-based adaptation approaches.

4.3 Sustainable Development Potential [Potential to provide wider development co-benefits]

Given the nature of the project it will result in a broad range of sustainable development co-benefits that will include: Economic co-benefits At the macro level the project will help safeguard development and infrastructure investments against natural climate-induced hazards and reduce losses of irrigation and energy infrastructure, major transport routes and social facilities. The project will help the Government of Georgia to reduce/optimize budget spending related to compensations of the losses and damages, improving the use of public funds for disaster preparedness and recovery, and developing risk transfer schemes engaging the private sector. The risk knowledge will inform land use and investment decisions to avoid maladaptation. A more complete estimation of savings, avoided losses and economic co-benefits will be made in the feasibility study for the full proposal. At the community and individual levels the project will help reducing losses of assets and livelihoods from climate-induced disasters, thus reducing vulnerability of communities and increasing their ability to invest into local development and sustainable livelihoods. More than 80% of the victims, economic damage caused by disasters, and eco-migrants come from highland areas resulting in abandonment of villages. Thus, by reducing the exposure of rural communities to climate-induced hazards, the GCF project will unleash sustainable development potential and improve demography in the rural areas prone to poverty. The project will engage gender-sensitive employment-guarantee schemes successfully piloted by the earlier Rioni project creating additional incentives and local ownership with the local communities. Social co-benefits The project will help avoid losses of lives and social infrastructure, enhance family savings and increase local budgets for social expenditures and local infrastructure. The project will improve the knowledge and understanding of climate risks and hazards among local communities and planners and thus will empower communities to make informed decisions on climate disaster preparedness, choice of land use and livelihoods. A particular attention will be paid to secure access to climate risk information and early warnings for women and to women empowerment throughout the project. Through community-based planning, capacity building, employment-guarantee schemes and social mobilization the project will help enhancing social cohesion. Environmental co-benefits The project will result in improved ecosystem resilience and reduced damage to biodiversity habitats and ecosystem services. Where feasible the project will extensively utilize low-cost win-win ecosystem-based adaptation approaches piloted in the Rioni project (e.g. agroforestry).

Gender-sensitive development impact Women appear to suffer disproportionally from disasters due to uneven income distribution and lesser access to information, planning and decision making. When disaster strikes, men and women have different abilities, means and ways of responding, and, in the end, the impacts are different. It has been widely observed, researched and documented that women are more vulnerable than men of the same social classes, races, ethnic and age groups during all phases of a disaster. According to the 2015 Report of the Ombudsman of Georgia to the Parliament, women rights and gender equality is still a challenge in Georgia. The study

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conducted by the Ombudsman’s office revealed that women have fewer decision-making possibilities within the family and in the public sphere, and they earn less. The similar distortion exists regarding women’s involvement into community-based activities and village development programmes. As a result, all the activities required for rural development of the villages are decided by men ignoring specific needs of women. According to the recent UN Women study for Georgia women are very rarely involved in decision-making processes in villages and municipalities. The UN Women survey showed that the percentage of women in local councils varies from 0% to 26% across six targeted regions with the average representation of women in the local councils of 9%13. Women have less access to disaster early warning, to policy and decision making on risk reduction and disaster management, to knowledge and information, to relief assistance. In addition, even though women are actively involved in employment market, according to the 2015 Gender Inequality Index Georgia’s ranks 60th from 145 countries per decision making possibilities and 110 with pay inequality between men and women. Average annual income of a man exceeds twice of a woman on same position. All these factors contribute to women’s greater vulnerability in the face of disasters. The GCF project is designed to provide a significant transformative impact on gender equality, inclusion and empowerment of women as a critical element of sustainable development in the context of disaster risk reduction and climate change. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (Sendai Framework) of which Georgia is signatory and shares the commitments underpinning the framework, recognizes that gender equality and women’s empowerment is a catalyst for effective disaster risk reduction in attaining the overall sustainable development goals. The Sendai Framework calls for stronger participation of women and their leadership in disaster risk reduction decision-making processes and the collection and use of sex and age-disaggregated data to inform policy formulation and decisions making processes. Unfortunately, currently Georgia does not produce any sex and age-disaggregated data. The GCF project will address these gaps through the comprehensive gender disaggregated socio-economic vulnerability studies (activity 1.3). The project will ensure gender mainstreaming in all relevant activities, particularly special emphasis will be paid to development of gender-age disaggregated vulnerability and risk data to ensure development of early warning systems that comply with needs of all vulnerable groups to disasters. Gender aspects and specific needs will be integrated during development of the multi-hazard early warning regulations, mechanisms and protocols (Output 2) as well as throughout the implementation of community-based risk reduction measures (Output 3).

The project directly contributes to three Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) namely: SDG 1 on poverty reduction; SDG 11 on safe and resilient settlements; SDG 13 on Climate Action. In addition the GCF project will provide indirect contribution to another four SDGs: SDG 2 through contribution to the food security; SDG 5 through the contribution to gender equality and empowerment of women; SDG 6 through contribution to monitoring and sustainable management of water resources; SDG 15 through contribution to reduced land degradation and ecosystem loss.

4.4 Needs of Recipient [Vulnerability to climate change and financing needs of the recipients]

Georgia’s complex mountainous topography makes it highly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards and extremes. All the key hydro-meteorological hazards observed in Georgia have been intensifying and increasing in frequency over time with the clear evidence of climate change impacts on these phenomena. The climate studies and papers (TNC, INDC, etc.) forecast further increase in the exposure of Georgia’s communities and infrastructure to climate-induced hazards. These vulnerabilities to climate change have been aggravated with the other vulnerability factors outlined below. Socio-economic vulnerability and poverty: Georgia is ranked as a lower middle-income country, ranking 75th on the Human Development Index. Despite the recent economic growth, a substantial part of the population is still living in poverty. Rural households headed by women with children are particularly vulnerable to poverty. Estimates for extreme poverty vary between 10% and 45% depending on the poverty threshold used. There are also regional disparities in poverty rates. Rural poverty rates (24.3%) are relatively higher than urban poverty rates (17.6 %), with the trend towards narrowing the gap interrupted by the 2008 conflict. Some groups of the population are particularly disadvantaged regarding access to basic services and social inclusion. For example, as a result of the wars in the 1990s in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the 2008 Georgian-Russian conflict, Georgia currently counts 258,595 IDPs out of a total population of 3.72 million. The most pressing issues are inadequate housing conditions and high levels of unemployment14. Additionally, in Georgia children are at a higher risk of poverty than any other age group. Households with children are poorer than those

13 Gender assessment of agriculture and local development systems, UN Women, SCO and ADC, 2016 14 Economic and Social Vulnerability in Georgia, UNDP 2012

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without children, and the higher the number of children in the household, the greater the poverty risk15. All these factors contribute directly to reduced adaptation and coping capacities of the vulnerable groups. As mentioned above more than 80% of the victims, economic damage caused by disasters, and eco-migrants come from highland areas representing the most vulnerable social groups/areas. The GCF project will apply social vulnerability measurement and mapping methodology to account for the needs of these most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups including the design of tailored information delivery, engagement and capacity building tools. Lack of experience in the financial and market instruments: Georgia doesn’t have a well-developed insurance market and risk transfer mechanisms. In the absence of sustainable insurance schemes the burden of financial compensations in case of disasters lie fully on the government. The compensation schemes are often implemented in an ad-hoc basis driven by political and social considerations creating inefficiencies in spending limited public funds. Lack on clear information and knowledge of climate and disaster risks and hazards, losses and damages prevents the government from setting up sustainable risk transfer mechanisms and engaging private sector into the DRR sector. This makes the state particularly vulnerable in the context of increased frequency and severity of climate hazards. The project will address the gaps in climate hazard information, modeling and forecasting. Natural factors – seismic hazards: Georgia is situated in one of the most seismically active regions in the Alpine-Himalayan collision belt. Strong earthquakes, with magnitudes up to 7 and macro-seismic intensity of 9 (MSK scale), have occurred in the region. The reoccurrence period of such events is on the order of 103-104 years. Seismic hazards, although not driven by climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of mountainous communities. The GCF project will not invest into activities related to the reduction of seismic risks but will be coordinated with those activities undertaken at the national level through the National Plan of Action for Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Reduction.

4.5 Country Ownership [Beneficiary country ownership of project or programme and capacity to implement the proposed activities]

The proposed project originates from consultation with the Government of Georgia and is based on the national request to support the establishment of a multi-hazard early warning system. The project is fully country-driven. All national strategies related to the climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and natural resource management clearly prioritize the establishment of the efficient national climate risk monitoring and early warning system. The INDC of Georgia (2015) makes a strong focus on the adaptation to climate change; underlines an increasing frequency and severity of climate-induced disasters among the key climate change impacts and areas for the adaptation action; note the MHEWS among priority adaptation measures. The most recent National Plan of Action for Capacity Development in DRR (2015-2019) defines Identification, assessment and monitoring of disaster risk and enhancing early warning as one of 5 key priority actions. The need for an effective early warning system is outlined in Georgia’s key development programme “United Georgia without Poverty” (2010) as well as in the government’s medium term reform programme “Basic Data and Directions (BDD)”. The latest revision of BDD (2013-2016) sets priority directions for disaster risk management that includes the establishment of a disaster forecast and early warning system. The National Environmental Action Programme of Georgia (2012–2016) also includes a dedicated section on disasters that outlines the following actions: the improvement/modernization of the early warning system; the prevention/reduction of negative impacts of floods and flash floods in river basins; and risk reduction for industrial accidents. Adaptation to Climate Change was acknowledged as a priority in the National Climate Change Policy (2009), based on the results of the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC. A National Climate Change Adaptation Plan is under development and will be consolidated with the Adaptation Strategy under the Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. The National Implementing partner – the Ministry of environment and natural resources protection of Georgia with its subordinate National Environmental Agency – have the mandate, institutional structures and capacities to implement the project with UNDP.

4.6 Effectiveness and Efficiency [Economic and financial soundness and effectiveness of the proposed activities]

Further details will be provided in the full proposal.

15 UNICEF, Reducing child poverty 2012

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V. Brief Rationale for GCF Involvement and Exit Strategy The GCF involvement is critical to consolidate and scale-up earlier efforts of the government and donors addressing climate-related disasters. GCF investment into nation-wide climate risk and hazards monitoring and modelling is prerequisite for further Government policy development, risk reduction and risk transfer measures, and private sector engagement. The existing hydrometeorological observation network in Georgia doesn’t provide sufficient and reliable data for risk mapping, modelling and forecasting. Resources are not available to expand the floodplain modelling and zoning integrating climate hazard and risk maps for all basins in Georgia and for all hazards aligned with international and regional standards. This knowledge of climate risks and hazards and supportive enabling environment to be established by GCF project are the key missing building blocks for improved public and private financing of DRR, for effective risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms, and for community-level climate risk management. In addition, community-based and ecosystem-based approaches to DRR are still not widely known and utilized in Georgia and require external support. These include ecosystem-based non-structural flood protection measures, participatory gender-sensitive resilience planning, “Last Mile” communication solutions.

There is a strong evidence of climate change being the underlying factor behind the increasing frequency and severity of extreme climate-related hydrometeorological events, and these events are projected to intensify in the coming decades. Due to its mandate for enhancing resilience of vulnerable communities to climate change, the GCF is best positioned to close the existing financing and knowledge gaps and barriers to improved resilience of Georgia’s people to climate induced hazards. The GCF financing is required to reduce associated economic losses and to prevent human losses. The project investment framework consolidates resources from the state budget, bilateral donors and specialized agencies around the core GCF investment. In line with the GCF sustainability principles, this GCF grant would pave the way for private sector engagement into the DRR sector, that has been otherwise stalled, and thus for a greater efficiency of the use of public funds. Exit strategy: By the end of the project the national institutional counterparts will be fully equipped and trained to maintain the modelling, forecasting and early warning systems. The development of the MHEWS is part of the National Action Plan for Capacity Development for DRR (2015-2019) and thus the MHEWS will be fully integrated into the national emergency management framework and budgets. The project will include a strong focus on the community engagement, training and “Last Mile” communication solutions in order to secure understanding of climate risks and achieve a sustainable change in behaviour among local communities. The project will also pave the way to a greater involvement of private sector in the delivery of climate information products and services, risk transfer schemes and risk reduction. The National Environmental Agency is committed to take over the operation and maintenance costs of the meteorological and hydrological monitoring equipment as part of the national co-financing (a corresponding letter of commitment will be provided with the full proposal with the Operations and Maintenance Plan). There is a positive track record of working with NEA under the UNDP flood management project in Rioni where the maintenance cost of the new observation stations have already been absorbed by the Agency.

VI. Risk Analysis Financial and operational risks and mitigating measures: The financial and operational risks to the project are low given the strong commitment of the Government of Georgia to implement the MHEWS. The INDC and the National DRR plan clearly outlines activities and co-financing toward the MHEWS; NEA is committed to take over the operational and maintenance costs of the monitoring network while the costs of the EWS will be integrated in the national emergency management system. The costing of the suggested measures are based on the completed UNDP pilots. Environmental and social risks and the proposed risk mitigation measures: Risk reduction activities and measures proposed in this project have been earlier piloted through the UNDP Rioni project. There have been no grievances recorded through the Rioni project implementation. Close cooperation with and controls by the national environmental authorities have been ensured. A clear Standard of Procedures (SOP) will be developed based on the Rioni pilots prior to the implementation of the GCF project field activities. Social risks will be analysed through the detailed socio-economic vulnerability study planned in the project. A detailed risk analysis and related mitigation plans will be submitted with the full proposal.

VII. Multi-Stakeholder Engagement The proposal is driven by the request of the Government of Georgia and is building on extensive expert and stakeholder consultations conducted in the course of the implementation of a prototype UNDP Rioni project, 2015 post-disaster needs assessments and DRR capacity assessment study. The initial consultations on the project Concept were conducted with the GCF NDA office and NEA in February and April 2016. The following key stakeholders will be engaged in the project implementation: • The National Environmental Agency (NEA) is the main responsible agency for hydro-meteorological and geological hazards

assessment (except earthquakes) as well as to provide monitoring of environmental pollution, the Seismic Monitoring Center and Institute of Geophysics for seismic hazard and secondary natural hazards assessment caused by earthquakes (although not mandated by law), the National Forestry Agency for forest fire hazard (see section 2). The Environmental Information and Education Centre under the Ministry of Environmental and Natural Resources Protection is responsible to collect and share environmental related information. Thus, the agencies outlined above - NEA, the Seismic Monitoring Center, the National Forestry Agency and the Environmental Information and Education Centre - are the key stakeholders that provide the early warning.

• The Emergency Management Agency (EMA) is the agency responsible for emergency prevention, preparedness, response and early recovery/reconstruction, according to the Civil Safety Law (2014)

• The State Security and Crisis Management Council (SSCM) under the Prime Minister’s office has been established to adopt political decisions of the highest level to ensure state security and crisis management. The National Centre for Crisis

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Management16 was created within the Office of the Council. Upon occurrence of a crisis, the National Crisis Management Centre is subordinated directly to the Prime Minister.

• The Natural Disaster Prevention and Rapid Response Unit established in 2014 under Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure (MRDI) is mandated to integrate disaster prevention, early warning, response and post-disaster recovery in infrastructure planning and development. The unit is also in charge of the effective use of early warning systems for infrastructure.

o Local Governments are responsible for (Civil Safety Law, 2014): design and implementation of disaster prevention measures; development and approval of disaster risk management plans together with EMA; evacuation and shelter of affected people; distribution of humanitarian aid; emergency response and recovery activities; awareness raising and trainings.

• The Georgia Red Cross Society (GRCS) is a member of the International Red Cross Movement and it acts as a voluntary, humanitarian, non-governmental and independent organization with an auxiliary role to public authorities in humanitarian work, and with a mandate to coordinate the NGO response in emergency situations.

• Local communities are the key stakeholders for the project Component 3 for community-based EWS and DRM activities.

VIII. Status of Project/Programme

1) A pre-feasibility study is expected to be completed at this stage. Please provide the report in Annex II.

2) Please indicate whether a feasibility study and/or environmental and social impact assessment has been conducted for the proposed project/programme: Yes ☐ No ☒ (If ‘Yes’, please provide them in Annex II.)

3) Will the proposed project/programme be developed as an extension of a previous project (e.g. subsequent phase), or based on

a previous project/programme (e.g. scale up or replication)? Yes ☒ No ☐ (If yes, please provide an evaluation report of the previous project in Annex II, if available.)

IX. Remarks FOR THE GCF: The proposed project is building upon and scaling up the following project-based activities implemented in Georgia in 2013-2015:

1. Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment, UNDP, September 2014 (Annex II.d.) 2. UNDP project financed by the Adaptation Fund “Developing Climate Resilient Flood and Flash Flood Management Practices

to Protect Vulnerable Communities of Georgia” produced (a) a multi hazard risk assessment for the Rioni river basin, (b) Floodplain Zoning Policy Framework and Policy Guidance (Annex II.b.) ; and (c) has been developing an Early Warning System for the Rioni river basin. The mid-term review of the project is provided in Annex II.c..

3. “Towards a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Georgia”, UNDP, November 2015 (Annex II.a.) FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY:

16 Law of Georgia on Planning and Coordination of the National Security Policy, Article 26 - National Centre for Crisis Management

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Annex I.

Hydro-Meteorological Stations in Georgia

Source: NEA

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Annex II. Please provide the pre-feasibility study report for the project/programme. Please also provide the feasibility study report, environmental and social impact assessment, and/or evaluation report, if available. II.a. Towards a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Georgia, UNDP, November 2015

II.b. Floodplain Zoning Policy Framework and Policy Guidance, UNDP, 2015 II.c. Mid-term review report for the UNDP/AF project “Developing Climate Resilient Flood and Flash Flood Management Practices to Protect Vulnerable Communities of Georgia” II.d. Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment, UNDP, 2014