SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI · HPC 2017 vs. 2016 2016 2017 $34.8 B $35.4 B Servers, up >7% orage, up

SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI

Addison SnellChristopher Willard, Ph.D.

Laura Segervall

HPC Market for 2017• Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage,

software, etc.) reached $35.4 billion in 2017, up 1.6% from 2016

• Demand-side indicators were up; supply-side indicators were down. What happened?– Large increase in spending on power and cooling in commercial

sites (over half of market); masked by moving out-of-budget– Cloud had a breakout year– Storage was weak relative to server spending (GPUs)– Some vendors did well in HPC, poorly in other enterprise servers– The software and services categories both declined

Data cited from multiple forecast and survey reports. Inquire with Intersect360 Research, [email protected].

HPC 2017 vs. 2016

2016 2017

$35.4 B$34.8 B

Servers, up >7%

Storage, up <3%

Networks,Software, and

Servicesall declined

Cloud, up 44%!Other Other$1.1B

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services

HPC Cloud 2017 vs. 2016

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2016 2017

Other

Infrastructurehosting(IaaS,PaaS)

Applicationhosting(SaaS)

Storage

Rawcycles

($000) All cloud categories grew

Raw cycles grew only along with overall market for compute

SaaS

up 125%!

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories

HPC Forecast: Products and Services

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

OtherCloudNetworksSoftwareServicesStorageServers

($000)

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services

Budget outlooks have improved, especially in government sectorHPC User Budget Map: Budget Outlooks

Fundamental Drivers• Drivers for HPC:

– There is always more science to do– There are always harder problems to solve– Most HPC usage is commercial– Plus: AI!

• Drivers for HPC in Cloud:– Suitable to variable workloads– Availability of high-performance components– Maturation of licensing models– Plus: AI!

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and ServicesReport: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories

HPC Server Classes

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

2016 2017

Supercomputers (> $1.5M)

High-End ($250K to $1.5M)Midrange ($50K to $250K)

Entry Level (< $50K)

Highest growth

Lowest growth

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: HPC Server Class

Academic/Not-for-profit:

Nationalsecurity

Nationalresearch lab

Nationalagency

Stateorlocalgovernment

FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing

Bio-sciences

Energy

Consumerproductmanufacturing

Retail

Chemical

Electronics

Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial

HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical

Academic,17.7%

Government,25.7%

Commercial, 56.6%

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets

Academic/Not-for-profit:

Nationalsecurity

Nationalresearch lab

Nationalagency

Stateorlocalgovernment

FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing

Bio-sciences

Energy

Consumerproductmanufacturing

Retail

Chemical

Electronics

Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial

HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical

Academic,17.7%

Government,25.7%

Commercial, 56.6%

HPC Server Shares, 2017

HPE

DellLenovo

IBMAtos/Bull

CrayInspur

Fujitsu HuaweiPenguin

OthersGrew faster than market

Grew along with market

Grew slower than market

Declined

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Server Revenue Shares

Site Census Survey: Top Named System Suppliers

AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 1.5%

Dell EMC

NetApp

HPEIBM

HDSDDN

Atos/BullPanasas

Fujitsu

Others

HPC Storage Shares, 2017

Grew faster than market

Grew along with market

Grew slower than market

Declined

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Storage Revenue Shares

Site Census Survey:Top Named Storage Suppliers

AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 4.4%

System Interconnectsby Year Last Modified

• By year last modified, InfiniBand continues to be the most frequently installed system interconnect. Ethernet 10G or faster and Omni-Path installations are growing faster than InfiniBand installations.

• For the highest performance system interconnects, Omni-Path captured some of the Ethernet 100G business.

• Up to two unique system interconnects were allowed per system. The same interconnect type is only counted once per system.

The Highest Performance System Interconnect Types

System Interconnect Types, Total Sites

Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers

• In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox being the only top supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were not included in total.

• Compared to 2017 Total Sites share of mentions:• Mellanox gained 1% share for storage networks. In other locales, Mellanox’s

share remained the same as last year.• Cisco Systems gained 2% share for storage network and 1% share for LANs.• Intel gained 3% share in system interconnects for Omni-Path.

Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Network Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers

• Three-fourths of applications reported were Open Source or ISV software (generally-available applications).

• Top applications are primarily used for traditional HPC application –chemistry, fluid dynamics, structural analysis, and weather forecasting.

Top Generally-Available Applications

Hyperscale Market in 2017

• Grew 25% Y/Y to $44B ($35B in 2016)• Consolidating further into Tier 1

– Orgs spending over $1B/year on IT– Nine Tier 1 companies in 2017

• Eight in 2016• One more just missed in 2017

• Market is through its original major expansion, now entering consolidation phase

AI / Deep Learning / Machine Learning• Roughly $4.5 Billion dedicated to machine learning in

2017; >90% comes from Hyperscale

• Within HPC, most advanced use cases are in finance

• We are monitoring spending patterns– Are budgets increasing?– What is the effect on configurations?– On premise versus cloud

• 56% of HPC organizations are running machine learning– Usually with same hardware as HPC

– Often with changes to configuration, particularly with GPUs– Little effect on overall budgets compared to what was planned

– To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC environment, it is already counted in our numbers

Report: Machine Learning’s Impact on HPC

Use of Machine Learning at HPC Sites

A Look Ahead to 2019• Early indicators suggest strong growth

• Processor wars will be fought in software– Critical tests for ARM

– Welcome back, AMD!

• Storage tiers proliferate

• Battle to possess data intensifies

• Acquisition targets:– Cloud managed services for AWS

– Middleware expertise

SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI

Addison SnellChristopher Willard, Ph.D.

Laura Segervall