Hans-Peter Huber, PhD Chief Investment Officer Riyad Capital 6775 Takhassusi St. – Olaya Riyadh 12331-3712 [email protected] Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Hans-Peter Huber, PhD Chief Investment Officer Riyad Capital 6775 Takhassusi St. – Olaya Riyadh 12331-3712 [email protected]
Saudi Economic Chartbook
February 2017
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 1
Table of Contents:
GDP Data ………………….…………. 2
Monetary and Financial
Indicators ………………………….… 4
Private Spending and
Foreign Trade …............................... 7
Non-Oil Business Climate
Indicators …………………...……….. 8
Inflation Indicators ……………... 9
Real Estate Market …………..... 10
Oil Market …….………………………12
Foreign Exchange and
Interest Rates …….………...……… 13
Saudi Balance of Payments ..….15
Saudi Equity Market ………...... 16
Facts and Figures
at a Glance …….……………............ 18
USD/SAR-Forward Premium and SAR-USD Interest Rate Spread
The USD/SAR FX-forward
premium and the SIBOR-
LIBOR interest rate spread
have largely “normalized”
in the last months.
source: Bloomberg
Normalizing Conditions on Domestic and FX Financial Markets
USD/SAR 12M forward premium in bp, l.h.sc.
3M SIBOR-LIBOR interest rate spread in %-points, r.h.sc.
Based on preliminary estimates for the full year 2016 the GDP growth rate of
1.4% can almost entirely be explained by the positive Oil sector contribution
while the Non-oil economy was barely growing throughout the year.
Monetary and financial indicators have clearly improved in the course of the
last quarter 2016 on the back of a more expansionary fiscal stance of the gov-
ernment which settled its late bill payments.
Indicators of non-oil economic activity show a mixed picture. While growth
of ATM-withdrawals and Point-of-sales transactions is stagnating, business
climate indicators point towards a recovery by beginning of 2017.
Saudi production and exports of crude oil grew each by about 3% in 2016.
Meanwhile, petroleum refinery activity and exports of refined products
surged by 16% respectively 25% in the same period.
Interest rate spreads to USD rates and the USD/SAR forward exchange rate
premium have further considerably narrowed in the recent months, pointing
towards normalizing conditions on domestic and FX financial markets (see
figure below).
After two years in deficit the current account balance turned positive again in
the 3rd quarter 2016. Meanwhile, foreign reserve assets still declined but at a
diminishing rate.
The Saudi equity market has entered a consolidation phase after its strong
recovery in the 4th quarter 2016. The decline of corporate earnings and the
rebound in prices has translated into a considerable PE-multiple expansion
of the overall market.
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 2
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
Real GDP growth Overall economy, quarterly % yoy Real GDP growth Non-oil private sector, quarterly % yoy
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Overall Economy and Institutional Sectors
The lack of growth of the Non-oil sector witnessed
in the first three quarters of 2016 is also weighing
on the preliminary full year GDP estimates. The
growth rate of 1.4% for 2016 can almost entirely be
explained by the Oil sector contribution. With nom-
inal growth of the Non-oil private sector gradually
picking up the gap between GDP deflator and CPI
headline inflation is diminishing.
source: GASTAT, RC source: GASTAT
Real GDP growth Oil-sector, quarterly % yoy Nominal GDP growth Non-oil private sector, quarterly % yoy
GDP deflator Non-oil private sector % yoy
CPI inflation % yoy
Figure 2:
Nominal and Real GDP Non-Oil Private Sector
Figure 1:
Real GDP Overall Economy and Oil Sector
Figure 3:
GDP Growth Contribution by Institutional Sector Figure 4: GDP Deflator and CPI Inflation
Oil sector
Non oil private sector
Government sector
Overall economy
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 3
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
Crude oil & Natural gas production Construction
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Kind of Economic Activity
The GDP growth analysis by kind of economic activ-
ity after three quarters 2016 shows a mixed picture.
While the construction sector and government ser-
vices (the core of the government sector) exhibited
the most negative growth rates (-3.8% respectively
-3.9%), petroleum refining activity stood out with a
stunning growth rate of +11.9%, thereby further
fuelling growth of the entire Oil sector.
Wholesale & retail trade, hospitality
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and business services
Petroleum refining (manufacturing) Other manufacturing (e.g. Petchem)
Producers of government services
Transport, storage and communication
Figure 2:
Real Growth of Selected Economic Sectors
Figure 1:
Real Growth of Selected Economic Sectors
Figure 4: Real Growth of Selected Economic Sectors
Figure 3:
Real Growth of Selected Economic Sectors
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 4
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Monetary base, % yoy
Aggregate M1, % yoy
Aggregate M2, % yoy
The government expenditure increase due to late bill payments in the 4th quarter 2016 and SAMA’s accommodative stance represented an inflection point for the liquidity of domestic money markets.
This is mirrored in monetary aggregates’ growth rates turning positive again. Meanwhile, the late bill payments allowed corporates to reduce their credit exposure leading to lower credit growth.
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Banks’ claims on private sector, % yoy, l.h.sc. Banks’ overall customer deposits, % yoy, l.h. sc.
Aggregate M3, % yoy
Monetary Aggregates, Credit and Commercial Banks’ Deposits
Banks’ claims on private sector, % mom, r.h.sc. Banks’ overall customers deposits, % mom, r.h.sc.
Figure 1:
Growth Rate Monetary Base and Aggregate M1
Figure 2:
Growth Rate Monetary Aggregates M2 and M3
Figure 3:
Growth of Credit to the Private Sector
Figure 4:
Growth of Commercial Banks’ Deposits
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 5
source: SAMA
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Claims on the private sector as % of total bank deposits Claims on the government as % of total bank deposits
The declining credit growth and expanding bank
deposits as a result of the improved domestic li-
quidity situation caused a drop of the loan-deposit-
ratio to 86.9 (after a peak at 91.1 in mid-2016).
Meanwhile, the government mainly shifted its bor-
rowing activity from the domestic to the interna-
tional capital market in the 4th quarter, hence con-
solidating its overall debt at commercial banks.
Claims on the private sector as % of total bank deposits Claims on private sector and government as % of total
bank deposits
source: SAMA
Commercial Banks’ Loan-Deposit-Ratios
Claims on the government as % of total bank deposits
Figure 1:
Private Sector Loan-Deposit-Ratio
Figure 2:
Government Sector Loan-Deposit-Ratio
Figure 3:
Loan-Deposit-Ratios in the Long Term
Figure 4:
Overall Loan-Deposit-Ratio in the Long Term
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 6
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Total foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in bln SAR, l.h.sc.
Monthly change in foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in
bln SAR, r.h.sc.
Total government deposits at SAMA, in bln SAR, l.h.sc.
SAMA’s foreign reserves declined in the last quarter
2016 by 69bln SAR. For the overall year the re-
serves were reduced by 300bln SAR after 425bln
SAR in 2015. Government deposits at SAMA
dropped by 195bln SAR in 4th quarter. This can be
explained by a transfer of 100bln SAR to PIF in Oc-
tober and the late payments of previous years’ bills
of 105bln SAR in the last three months.
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Total foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in bln SAR Total government deposits at SAMA, in bln SAR
Monthly change in total government deposits at SAMA,
in bln SAR, r.h.sc.
SAMA Balance Sheet: Key Elements of Assets and Liabilities
Figure 1:
Foreign Currency Reserves at SAMA
Figure 2:
Government SAR Deposits at SAMA
Figure 3:
Foreign Currency Reserves at SAMA in the Long Term
Figure 4:
Government SAR Deposits at SAMA in the Long Term
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 7
Point-of-Sales transactions and ATM-withdrawals
as indicators for private spending remained weak
throughout the 4th quarter of last year. Meanwhile,
exports could stabilize somewhat towards the end
of the year. Next to weak domestic demand the
sharp drop of imports can also be explained by a
stronger SAR traded-weighted exchange rate and
partly lower prices of imported goods (e.g. food).
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
Non-Oil exports, % yoy Imports, % yoy
3-Months Moving Average, % yoy 3-Months Moving Average, % yoy
Private Spending Indicators and Non-Oil Foreign Trade
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Point-of-sales transactions, % yoy
3-Months Moving Average, % yoy
ATM withdrawals, % yoy
3-Months Moving Average, % yoy
Figure 1:
Point-of-Sales Transactions
Figure 2:
ATM Transactions
Figure 3:
Growth of Non - Oil Exports
Figure 4:
Growth of Imports
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 8
source: Markit source: Markit
Emirates NBD PMI Composite
6-Months Moving Average
Emirates NBD PMI Output
Purchasing Manager Indices as typical business cli-
mate indicators have started to gradually recover
towards yearend after having reached new lows in
October of last year. Overall they indicate an im-
provement of the Non-oil economy into the first
quarter of 2017. Besides, the pick-up in output pric-
es points towards some more domestic pricing
power for companies in the Non-oil economy.
source: Markit source: Markit
Emirates NBD PMI New Orders
Non-Oil Private Sector Business Climate Indicators
Emirates NBD PMI Output Prices
6-Months Moving Average
6-Months Moving Average 6-Months Moving Average
Figure 1:
Purchasing Manager Index Composite
Figure 2:
Purchasing Manager Index Output
Figure 3:
Purchasing Manager Index New Orders
Figure 4:
Purchasing Manager Index Output Prices
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 9
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
CPI inflation, % yoy CPI inflation, % yoy
In January 2017 CPI inflation fell for the first time
since 15 years into negative territory with -
0.4%. This is primarily due to the impact of last
year’s energy price increases now dropping out of
the year-on-year inflation figure. Besides, the defla-
tionary trend of the food&beverages sub-index, giv-
en its important weight of 21% in the index, also
negatively affected overall inflation.
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
CPI inflation, sub-index Transport, % yoy
WPI inflation, % yoy
Consumer and Wholesale Price Inflation
CPI inflation, sub-index Furnishings, household equipment & CPI inflation, sub-index Food and non alcoholic
CPI inflation, sub-index Housing, water, electricity, gas
and other fuels, % yoy
Figure 1:
Consumer Price Inflation All Items
Figure 2:
Consumer Price and Wholesale Price Inflation
Figure 3:
CPI Inflation Food & Housing
Figure 4:
CPI Inflation Furnishings & Transportation
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 10
source: MOJ, RC
In 2016 the total real estate transaction value
dropped by -26% compared to the previous year.
The decline in residential real estate activity was
more pronounced at -33% while commercial real
estate transactions receded by -11% over the same
period. The Kingdom’s main three regions (Riyadh,
Makkah, Eastern Region) covered 88% of all real
estate activity in the last quarter of 2016.
source: MOJ, RC source: MOJ, RC
Total value of transactions in bln SAR, 4Q MA, l.h.sc.
Number of transactions in tsd, 4Q MA, r.h.sc.
Real Estate Market: Transaction Activity
Riyadh Region
Makkah Region
Eastern Region
All Other Regions
Total value of transactions in bln SAR, 4Q MA, l.h.sc.
Number of transactions, in tsd, 4Q MA, r.h.sc.
source: MOJ, RC
Total value of transactions in bln SAR, 4Q MA, l.h.sc.
Number of transactions in tsd, 4Q MA, r.h.sc.
Figure 1:
Quarterly Real Estate Transactions Overall Country
Figure 3:
Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Transactions
Figure 4:
Breakdown of Transaction Value by Regions (Q4 2016)
Figure 2:
Quarterly Residential Real Estate Transactions
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 11
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
The new real estate price indices by GASTAT reveal
that property prices generally declined since their
peak by end of 2014. In 2016 residential prices
dropped by -7.3% whereas commercial prices re-
ceded by -12.2%. This was primarily due to a gen-
eral reduction of land prices over this period. The
planned white land tax apparently started to take a
toll on land prices prior to its introduction.
source: GASTAT source: GASTAT
Residential villas price index
Residential price index Residential land price index
Commercial land price index Commercial price index
Real Estate Market: Price Indices
Residential apartments price index
Commercial centers price index
Commercial shops & galleries price index
2014 = 100 2014 = 100
Figure 1:
Residential and Commercial Price Indices
Figure 2:
Residential and Commercial Land Price Indices
Figure 3:
Residential Villas and Apartments Price Indices
Figure 4:
Commercial Shops and Centers Price Indices
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 12
source: JODI, Bloomberg source: JODI
Saudi Arabian crude oil production, in tsd bd
Saudi Arabian total oil refinery output in tsd bd
Whereas Saudi crude oil production and exports
grew each in 2016 by about 3% compared to 2015,
its refinery output and refined product exports
climbed by 16% respectively 25% over the same
period. Prior to the implementation of the agreed
output cuts OPEC crude production reached a multi-
year peak in November 2016. On the back of these
output cuts oil prices surged to the 50-60USD range.
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg
Brent oil price
OPEC crude oil production pro forma, in tsd bd
(incl. Indonesia and Gabon during OPEC membership)
OPEC crude oil production, in tsd bd
WTI oil price
Oil Market Statistics: Production, Exports, Refinery and Prices
Saudi Arabian crude oil export, in tsd bd Saudi Arabian total oil refinery export, in tsd bd
Figure 1:
Saudi Crude Oil Production and Exports
Figure 2:
Saudi Crude Refinery Output and Exports
Figure 3:
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Figure 4:
Oil Prices
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 13
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan
12-months forward exchange rate USD/SAR
Most recently the forward premium in USD/SAR
exchange rate has further declined from 440bp in
mid-December to 185bp in mid-February. A year
ago, at oil prices below 30USD, this forward premi-
um peaked at almost 1000bp. The (nominal and
real) effective SAR-exchange rate gradually correct-
ed since end of last year after having surged on the
back of a strong US dollar in the last months of 2016.
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
SAR Real (CPI-adjusted) trade-weighted exchange rate index
SAR Nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index
Foreign Exchange: Forward Rates and Effective Exchange Rate Index
12-months forward exchange rate USD/SAR
SAR Nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index
SAR Real (CPI-adjusted) trade-weighted exchange rate index
Figure 1:
12-Months Forward Exchange Rate SAR/USD
Figure 2:
SAR Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate
Figure 3:
12-Months Forward Exchange Rate SAR/USD in
the Long Term
Figure 4:
SAR Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate in the
Long Term
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 14
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg
3-months SIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)
5-year Swap rate SAR
The easing liquidity conditions of domestic money
markets translated into a further decline of SIBOR
interest rates. The 3-months rate dropped from
2.4% in October to 1.9% by mid-February. Corre-
spondingly, the SAR-USD rate spreads narrowed
across the yield curve with 3M SIBOR-LIBOR spread
dropping to 80bp from a peak of 160bp in 2016 and
5Y Swap rate spread receding to 140bp from 275pb.
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg
as of 10 February 2017 Reverse repo rate SAMA
as of 30 June 2016 3-months SIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)
5-year Swap rate USD 3-months US LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)
Interest Rates: Money Market, Capital Market and Central Bank Rates
3-months SIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)
3-months US LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)
Figure 1:
3-Months SIBOR vs. USD LIBOR
Figure 2:
5-Year Swap Interest Rate
Figure 3:
SIBOR Yield Curve
Figure 4:
Central Bank Rate and 3-Months SIBOR
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 15
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Balance of trade for goods, quarterly in bln SAR
Balance of trade for services, quarterly in bln SAR
Current account balance quarterly in bln SAR
After two years in deficit the current account has
turned positive again in the 3rd quarter 2016.
Meanwhile, the financial account shows clear signs
of improvement as well. Due to the errors and
omissions account in the Balance of Payments in-
dicating a not explicable outflow in the recent
quarters the foreign reserve assets still witness a
depletion which, however, has clearly diminished.
source: SAMA source: SAMA
Financial account balance (excluding changes in
foreign reserve assets), quarterly in bln SAR
(+ capital inflows, - capital outflows)
Net change in foreign reserve assets, quarterly in bln SAR
Saudi Balance of Payments
Figure 1:
Trade Balance for Goods and Services
Figure 2:
Current Account Balance
Figure 3:
Financial Account Balance
Figure 4:
Net Change in Foreign Reserve Assets
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 16
source: Bloomberg source: Tadawul
Tadawul All-share index Average daily trading value for Tadawul, in mln SAR
After its strong recovery in the 4th quarter 2016
Tadawul is consolidating around the 7000 level.
Average daily trading value gradually receded from
about 5.4bln SAR in November and December to
4.5bln in January. Trading activity by ownership
data reveal that mutual funds, which had been the
main drivers of the rally by end of last year, clearly
reduced their net purchases in 2017.
source: Tadawul source: Tadawul
Tadawul: Saudi Equity Market Statistics
10-Weeks Moving Average
Retail Mutual funds
High Net Worth Individuals total (HNWI and IPI) Corporates
Government related entities (GRE) Foreign investors total (incl. GCC)
Figure 1:
Tadawul All-Share Index
Figure 2:
Tadawul Total Trading Value
Figure 3:
Weekly Net Purchase by Ownersip
Figure 4:
Weekly Net Purchase by Ownersip
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 17
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg
TASI quarterly EPS in SAR, l.h.sc
Earnings per share (EPS) for TASI dropped in the
4th quarter to 66SAR, a decline of -42% to the previ-
ous quarter and of -18% to the 4th quarter 2015. On
a 4Q trailing basis TASI EPS were at 405SAR for the
full year 2016, a drop of -22% compared to their
peak level in 2014. Falling earnings and a re-
bounding market translated into a considerable
PE-multiple expansion by end of last year.
source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg
PE ratio TASI, 12-months trailing earnings
Long-term average
TASI 4Q trailing EPS in SAR, r.h.sc.
PE ratio TASI, 12-months forward earnings
Long-term average
Tadawul: Saudi Equity Market Statistics
Figure 1:
Performance TASI Sectors January 2017YTD
Figure 2:
Quarterly Earnings TASI
Figure 3:
Valuation TASI: PE-Ratio Trailing
Figure 4:
Valuation TASI: PE-Ratio Forward
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 18
Economic Facts and Figures at a Glance
We expect Saudi economic growth to slow down to 0.5% in 2017 from 1.4% in 2016. This will be the result of diverging trends of the Oil- and the Non-oil economy. While the Oil sector is expected to shrink due to the OPEC output cut agreement (-1.1%), the Non-oil private part of the economy is forecasted to recover on the back of an expansionary fiscal policy (+2.5%).
Based on the most recent outlook of the IMF the global economy is forecasted to grow by 3.4% in 2017 after 3.1% in 2016. This growth acceleration is expected to be broad based, driven by advanced as well as emerging market economies.
Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates GDP and Fiscal Indicators
Tadawul Equity Market External Balance
Global Economy GDP Growth Rates
source: GASTAT, MOF, RC source: Bloomberg, SAMA, RC
source: SAMA, RC
source: Bloomberg
source: IMF
P/E-ratio = Price/ Earnings-ratio , P/B-ratio = Price / Book-ratio
all ratios on trailing basis except 2017 forecast (consensus forward-ratios)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f
Real GDP Growth
Overall economy 5.4 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.5
Non-oil Private sector 5.6 7.0 5.4 3.4 0.1 2.5
Government sector 5.3 5.1 3.7 2.7 0.5 0.2
Oil sector 5.1 -1.6 2.1 5.3 3.4 -1.1
Fiscal Balance and Government Debt
Fiscal Balance in bln SAR 374 180 -71 -366 -297 -185
Fiscal Balance in % GDP 13.6 6.4 -2.5 -15.0 -12.4 -7.2
Government debt in bln SAR 99 60 44 142 317 437
Government debt as % GDP 3.6 2.1 1.6 5.8 13.2 17.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f
Oil Prices and Production (yearly average)
Brent price (USD pb) 111.7 108.7 99.5 53.7 44.1 55.0
WTI price (USD pb) 94.1 98.0 92.9 48.8 43.3 53.0
OPEC Basket price (USD pb) 109.5 105.9 96.2 49.5 40.7 52.0
KSA oil production (mln bd) 9.8 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.2
Inflation and Interest Rates (year end)
CPI Inflation (yearly average) 2.87 3.52 2.68 2.18 3.50 1.90
3M SIBOR SAR 0.99 0.96 0.86 1.55 2.04 2.50
Reverse Repo Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.25
Official Repo Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f
Trade and Current Account
Trade Balance in bln SAR 925 835 690 166 205 285
Trade Balance in % GDP 33.6 29.9 24.4 6.8 8.5 11.1
Current Account in bln SAR 618 508 277 -213 -97 -41
Current Account in % GDP 22.4 18.2 9.8 -8.7 -4.0 -1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 01/17
Key Figures (period end)
Total Return in % 9.3 30.2 0.7 -14.6 8.2 n.a.
P/E-ratio 14.4 16.4 18.2 15.9 17.2 14.5
P/B-ratio 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5
RoE 12.3 12.2 11.5 10.2 9.7 10.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
World 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4
Advanced Economies 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.9
USA 2.8 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3
Euro Area -0.6 -0.4 0.8 2.0 1.7 1.6
Japan 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.8
United Kingdom 0.2 1.7 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.5
Emerging Market Economies 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.5
China 7.7 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5
India 3.2 6.9 7.2 7.6 6.6 7.2
Russia 3.4 1.3 0.7 -3.7 -0.6 1.1
Brazil 0.9 2.7 0.1 -3.8 -3.3 0.2
Saudi Economic Chartbook February 2017
Page 19
Disclaimer
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