Saudi arabia's food security policy and nutrition

Saudi Arabia’s food security policy and nutrition

Expert Consultation on trade and nutrition15-16 November 2016

FAO, Rome

Panos KonandreasTrade Policy Plus

[email protected]

Saudi Arabia’s food security policy and nutrition

Particularities in KSA demographics

The food secure situation in the KSA

Factors contributing to KSA food security

The extent of malnutrition in the KSA

KSA food security policy

policy options to secure access to food supplies

gross inadequacies in public policy on food utilization and healthy diets/lifestyles

Overall conclusions

3

KSA population: high growth, urban & concentrated

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

Overall: 71% in four admin areasnon-Saudis: 85% in four admin areas

Saudi Total non-Saudi Total

Population growth rate 2.55% per annum

4

Ethnic & gender characteristics

• 1 non-Saudi (n-S) for 2 Saudis (S)

• 80 female for 100 male• 94 S-female for 100 S-male • 58 n-S-female for 100 n-S-male

• 2m more during Hajj pilgrimage

5

Impressive gains in food availability since the 1970s

1961-63 1971-73 1981-83 1991-93 2001-03 2009-11

Cereals 1227 1015 1300 1392 1484 1462

Veg Oils 61 111 347 366 392 401

Sugar 77 160 362 273 302 321

Meat 54 62 204 180 202 231

Fruits 176 189 248 204 225 202

Milk 53 73 153 116 151 121

Vegetables 27 61 74 88 69 66

Pulses 22 26 32 26 35 47

Animal fats 16 21 50 31 37 47

Miscellaneous 0 3 14 6 13 29

Starchy Roots 3 5 17 24 31 24

Spices 4 9 17 16 19 23

Stimulants 2 4 11 10 11 21

Eggs 2 6 25 19 18 18

Fish 7 8 17 10 13 15

Oilcrops 18 22 27 19 13 13

Offals 4 4 8 11 12 12

Treenuts 1 1 6 6 7 10

Grand Total 1754 1780 2912 2798 3034 3063

1961-63 1971-73 1981-83 1991-93 2001-03 2009-11

Cereals 33.2 27.3 34.1 38.8 40.0 38.8

Meat 3.4 4.4 15.9 15.1 17.9 21.1

Milk 2.8 4.5 10.6 6.4 8.6 7.0

Pulses 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.1

Vegetables 1.0 1.9 3.2 3.8 2.9 2.7

Miscellaneous 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.6

Fish 1.2 1.3 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.2

Fruits 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.1

Offals 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7

Eggs 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.4

Stimulants 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.8

Spices 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7

Grand Total 46.6 45.8 77.2 74.9 82.0 84.2

6

Large gains for meat, dairy, sugar and oils

1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16

World 113 123 113 111

Dev'd 131 136 98 101

Dev'g 108 120 119 114

NE in Asia 123 124 104 110

KSA 128 137 100 100

Region

KSA over regional

averages (%)

Supply adequacy

(%)

KSA aggregate food availability (DES) well above requirements for an active and healthy life

KSA variability due to influx of migrants

8

Under-nourishment comparable to Dev’d

1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16

World 26 17 26 30

Dev'd 5 5 132 100

Dev'g 32 20 21 26

NE in Asia 16 18 40 28

KSA 7 5 100 100

Inadequacy (%)KSA over regional

averages (%)Region

Oil revenues key to KSA food security

Co-movement of monthly food and oil prices

Generous food subsidies

http://www.focus-economics.com/regions/middle-east-and-north-africa

My back of envelope calculationsWheat 1 billionBarley 1.2 bMaize 0.3 bTOTAL above 2.5 b

Other products:DairyPoultry

Plus other indirect subsidies that benefit meat and dairy sectors:• 2.5% GDP KSA Electricity subsidy• 6.5% GDP KSA Diesel and gasoline

12

Ave price

(SR/Unit) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Wheat flour, local, brown (Grain Silos) 1kg 2.1 3.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1

Rice, Maza Indian (Abu Kas) 10kg 65.5 13.1 76.7 59.6 57.9 56.9 66.5 76.6 76.2

Bread, white 4loaves 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Cattle Meat, fresh 1kg 36.3 9.1 28.1 30.7 34.7 36.5 38.5 39.1 39.2

Sheep Meat, cooled imported 1kg 37.0 7.4 27.6 33.0 35.0 37.5 39.2 39.1 39.1

Chicken, frozen imported (Doux) 900gm 11.2 8.7 10.5 9.9 11.5 11.4 12.5 11.1 10.9

Fish, fresh, (Kanaad) 1kg 43.9 13.5 32.0 36.3 40.4 42.0 44.7 48.8 53.6

Milk, fresh, local (Al Maraai) 1L 4.0 0.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Yoghurt, (Al Saffi) 170gm 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Vegetable oil, (frying) Al arabi 1.8L 15.2 6.6 15.7 13.5 15.3 16.5 15.6 15.2 15.0

Sugar, soft, Al Ossra 10kg 33.7 13.7 23.4 33.1 40.8 36.3 34.0 31.0 26.9

Soft Drinks Pack 1.5 4.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pumpkin 1kg 5.2 12.4 4.5 4.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.0

Cabbage, white 1kg 3.2 13.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.3

Beans, green 1kg 10.4 13.4 9.1 9.4 9.3 10.4 10.2 11.3 12.1

Tomatoes, imported 1kg 5.3 23.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 5.2 6.0 5.8 5.8

Zucchini, local 1kg 5.9 18.3 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.6 6.3

Cucumbers, local 1kg 4.8 15.7 6.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.2

Peppers, green, local 1kg 7.6 16.0 7.1 6.5 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.7 8.8

Lettuce, local 1kg 5.6 15.3 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2

Watermelon, local 1kg 2.3 19.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6

Melon, local 1kg 4.0 17.5 4.3 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.5

Mango, Pakistani 1kg 12.2 11.3 12.1 10.9 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.6 13.4

Dates, (Maknoz, Khilas) 1kg 15.5 6.3 16.8 16.1 16.1 16.1 15.6 14.6 13.9

STDEV

(% of

Ave)

UnitProductAnnual average price (SR/Unit)

Subsidies & price controls kept most food prices stable

Food affordability improving

… but for poorest H-holds up to 40% on food

15

Relatively least secure non-S f-headed H-holds

Also, food imports relatively more affordable

17

Self-sufficiency ratios (SSRs)KSA imports about 80% of food consumed

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2013

Cereals Total 54 36 8 78 34 11 5

Meat Total 97 87 33 57 63 40 40

(Poultry) 100 47 24 54 62 43 41

Dairy Total 80 49 23 33 54 84 84

(Fresh milk) 104 112

Eggs 50 50 78 109 101 120 123

Fish 84 92 28 35 33 40 39

Pulses 33 22 21 20 9 8 8

Vegetables 91 98 60 81 81 92 83

Fruits 87 73 35 51 58 58 54

(Dates) 99 104 106 104 104 108 110

Oilcrops 40 15 2 3 7 1 1

Veg Oils 0 0 0 3 4 24 24

Sugar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

KSA is overall food secure but suffers from malnutrition

19

Overindulgence and growing obesity

Anaemia

Vitamin

A Iodine

Stunting

among

children

(%)

Under-

nourishment

(%)

Food

inadequacy

(%)

Over-

indulgence

(%)

Obesity

among

adults

(%)

2014-16 2014-16 2014-16 2014-16 2008

World 2902 47.9 30.7 30.3 25.7 10.9 16.8 30.7 11.7

Dev'd 3408 11.8 3.9 37.7 7.2 <5.0 <5.0 45.7 22.2

Dev'g 2795 52.4 34 29.6 28.0 12.9 19.6 27.6 8.7

NE in Asia 2874 45.5 15.8 19.5 24.4 12.6 18.1 32.9 29.4

KSA 3290 33.1 3.6 23.0 9.3 <5.0 <5.0 43.9 35.2

Most recent observation

Food

availability

(kcal/cap/

day)

Prevalence of deficiencies

among children (%)Prevalence of malnutrition

20

Heavy toll - Causes of mortality in KSA (all deaths)

21

Who are the obese? women affected more

22

Who are the obese and why?

Limited studies on factors contributing to obesity Obesity ^ with age, ^ in less educated ^ with sedentary lifestyles Higher for women of all ages Increasingly a problem for younger ages, both boys and girls

Most analyses based on either boys or girls groups. General conclusions:

Infrequent consumption of fruits and vegetables

Frequent consumption of fried foods

high prevalence of fast food (80% at least once weekly) consisting of Burgers and carbonated soft drinks. Large portions of fast food

Too much TV: > 1/3 of male and > 50% of female students >3 hours daily

Too little PA: 1/3 of boys and 100% of girls did not participate in any exercise during previous week

Significant risk factor: cultural norms

prohibition of physical education in schools for girls

females are prohibited by social norms to practice physical activities in public.

23

KSA policy options to secure access to food supplies

Domestic productionInvestment abroad Diversification in sourcing importsFood stocks

24

KSA food security policy obsessed with access to food supplies

25

… obsessed with access to food supplies

26

… obsessed with access to food supplies

Center pivot irrigation

28

1987

1991

2000

2012

Agricultural Fields, Wadi As-Sirhan Basin, Saudi Arabia

29

KSA expansion in irrigation, largely wheat before being phased out in 2016 (1000 Ha)

Investment abroad

Decision 2007 to abandon a food security policy based on autarky. Phase out local wheat production within 8 years

King Abdullah Initiative (KAI) for Agricultural Investment Abroad announced in January 2009.

KAI encourages Saudi companies to invest in farm projects abroad to improve KSA’s long-term food security while providing benefits to host country.

A government owned company: Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. (SALIC) promoted/subsidized such investments

Commodities targeted include: wheat, barley, corn, sorghum, soybeans, rice, sugar, oil seeds, green fodder, livestock and fish

Limited success so far. Now KSA has been broadening its investment abroad strategy including: establishing long-term food trade agreements, and contract farming arrangements in target countries.

Diversification in sourcing imports

Food stocks and storage capacity

33

Gross inadequacies in public policies on food utilization

Huge food waste: food is cheap and not valued MoA recent estimate Saudis waste $35 million worth of food

every day, amounting to $13 billion per year Partly linked to non-targeted and inflexible consumption policies Also linked to cultural factors, social traditions and extravagant

celebration events Food waste accounts for an estimated 28% of all waste: a serious

environmental problem for its disposal.

Deep-rooted social constraints Inadequate nutrition education at schools PE is absent from curricula of girls schools, and PA not practiced Prohibition of women for participating in physical activity in public Limiting the role that women could play in promoting good

nutrition and healthy lifestyles

34

Conclusions

KSA is a food secure country adequacy of supplies well above requirements; small share of undernourished

Transition to food security very rapid fuelled by petroleum revenues Span of few years KSA availability increased more than what other countries achieved in decades

But KSA is malnourished Excessive consumption of an unbalanced diet rich in meats, fatty foods and fast foods

leading to obesity

A policy of cheap subsidized food contributes to excessive intake and unbalanced diets

Sedentary lifestyles and limited physical activity

Public policy is obsessed with securing access to supplies Domestic production; investment abroad; diversification; stocks

Public policy pays much less attention to food utilization, healthy diets and lifestyles Paradox of huge food waste in a heavily import dependent country; continuing

excessive subsidization;

Lack of recognition of the importance of PE at schools and the need for nutrition education for nurturing healthy lifestyles

Continuing cultural constraints and prohibitions especially affecting women.