1 Saudamini Das, Assoc Prof. Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, and SANDEE Fellow Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Workshop, USAID, UNDP, ADAPT Asia- Pacific, 24-26 Oct 2012, Bangkok Conserving Mangroves for Storm Protection Services The views expressed are those of the presenter and should not be attributed to either UNDP or USAID. Furthermore, it is strongly recommended that both the PowerPoint slides and the videos of the presentation of content included herein are viewed in conjunction in order that statements appearing in the PowerPoint slides are not interpreted out of context.
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Saudamini Das, Assoc Prof. Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, and SANDEE Fellow
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Saudamini Das, Assoc Prof. Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, and SANDEE Fellow
Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Workshop, USAID, UNDP, ADAPT Asia-Pacific, 24-26 Oct 2012, Bangkok
Conserving Mangroves for Storm Protection Services
The views expressed are those of the presenter and should not be attributed to either UNDP or USAID. Furthermore, it is strongly recommended that both the PowerPoint slides and the videos of the presentation of content included herein are viewed in conjunction in order that statements appearing in the PowerPoint slides are not interpreted out of context.
Approach to Storm Hazard
•There are limitations & uncertainty
• Accurate prediction of intensity, landfall with sufficient time gap
• Limited compliance of community to State warning: (wait & watch, faith on GOD, less faith on Govt)
• All investments limited to protection of movable properties
• Uncertainty from Climate change
• Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and North Pacific Ocean are core area of Cyclogenesis (IPCC 1997)
• Emphasis on scientific & engineering approach to storm risk management by policy
Predicted deaths if current mangroves were at 1950 level
31
Averted deaths under assumption 1
(603 – 392) = 211
211 (54%)
Averted deaths under assumption 2
(392 – 31) = 361
361 (92%)
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Other damages averted by Mangroves (%)
Damage type
1999 mangrove
1950 mangrove
Human death
54 92
FC 17 100
PC -17 -100
Cattle 15 67
Buffalo 27 52
yyDA ˆˆ
17
Area / Mangrove unit
Value of 1km width
Value of 1 hectare
Village Rs3,928/ Rs217/
Entire study area
Rs33,39,166/ (USD 68, 586)
Rs1,82,080/ (USD 4335)
Storm Protection Value of Mangroves during super cyclone
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Type of damage Value/km of 1999 mangrove/village
Value/km of 1950 Mangrove/village
Human death 2743.95 1478.28
Fully collapsed houses 1368.55 3235.85
Partially collapsed houses
-245.59 -580.85
Fully collapsed + Partially collapsed
1123.36 2655
Buffaloes 8.77 4.83
Cattle 49.94 45.07
Weighted Average Storm Protection Value of km width of Mangroves per Village (in INR)
Will we optimize benefit by going back to 1950 level? NO
-.1
-.05
0.0
5.1
.15
avdeath
km
hm
ang
0 1 2 3 4 5hmangrvillage
X axis: km width of mangrove \ village
Y axis: averted death \ km width of mangrove \ village
Turning point: at approximately 1.5 km \ village
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Mangroves vs. others
Damage
Actual
Death without mangroves
Death without storm shelters
Death without early warning
Death without dikes
Human death
197 331 404 1602 257
• 74% of all the Swept Away houses and 80% of all the cattle loss in Kendrapada occurred from villages next to dikes.
Source: Das & Vincent ongoing (not to be quoted)
Source: Das (sandee@10)
Meteorology: • Orissa is the most cyclone prone state in east coast of India.• Frequency of high intensity cyclones increasing over years.
Period Frequency of VSCS & SC
Annual Probability
1900-1920 0 0.00
1920-1940 2 0.10
1940-1960 1 0.05
1960-1980 3 0.15
1980-2000 3 0.15
Should we preserve mangroves to adapt to climate change?
Yes, on both meteorological and economic grounds.
Economic cost & benefit (1999 prices)
Opportunity cost of conserving mangroves
• Market value of land in coastal Kendrapada: Rs172, 970 \ ha
• Annual return from land (8%): Rs13, 837\ha\yr
• Annual return from land(12%): Rs20, 756\ha\yr
Benefit from conserving mangroves
• Storm protection value (only for 3 damages):Rs182, 080\ha
• Annual Probability of VSCS and SC: 0.15\yr
• Annual Storm Protection Value (for 3 damages): Rs27, 312\ha\yr
Does reduction in only death risk justify mangrove preservation?
Benefit from death risk reduction
• No of lives saved: 0.01 \ ha• VSL for Orissa from Indian wage-risk study: Rs10,918,132\ • Annual probability of VSCS &SC: 0.15\yr• Annual benefit from reduction of death risk : Rs17, 469\ha\yr
• VSL for India: Rs13.7-14.2 to Rs55.5-60.6million at 2000 - 01prices ≈ Rs17.8-18.4 to Rs72 -78.12m at 2002-08 Per capita income.
Conclusions
•Mangroves reduced human death, livestock loss and house damages during the T-7 Super cyclone of October 1999.
• Human death toll would have been nearly doubled in absence of mangroves.
•Annualized storm protection benefit of mangrove for reducing three damages was found higher than annual return from land justifying mangrove conservation as a viable adaptation strategy to climate change.
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Policy Implications
• Use of engineering approach to manage storm disaster may not be the only option.
•Along with engineering and scientific approaches, mangrove protection and regeneration should be undertaken to manage storm risk more efficiently
• Along with movable properties like lives, mangroves also protect immovable assets like houses.