SÃO PAULO | RIO DE JANEIRO | BRASÍLIA | CURITIBA | PORTO ALEGRE | RECIFE | BELO HORIZONTE | LONDON | LISBON | SHANGHAI | MIAMI | BUENOS AIRES AN OVERVIEW OF BRAZIL POST CRISIS NORONHA ADVOGADOS GLOBAL LAWYERS DURVAL DE NORONHA GOYOS JR. SENIOR PARTNER - NORONHA ADVOGADOS PRESENTATION MADE FOR CONNECTICUT TRADE MISSION – AUGUST 10, 2009.
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NORONHA ADVOGADOS GLOBAL LAWYERS. São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife |. Belo Horizont e | London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires. An Overview of Brazil Post Crisis. Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Senior Partner - Noronha Advogados - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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SÃO PAULO | RIO DE JANEIRO | BRASÍLIA | CURITIBA | PORTO ALEGRE | RECIFE |
BELO HORIZONTE | LONDON | LISBON | SHANGHAI | MIAMI | BUENOS AIRES
AN OVERVIEW OF BRAZIL POST CRISIS
NORONHA ADVOGADOSGLOBAL LAWYERS
DURVAL DE NORONHA GOYOS JR.SENIOR PARTNER - NORONHA ADVOGADOS
PRESENTATION MADE FOR CONNECTICUT TRADE MISSION – AUGUST 10, 2009.
MAP OF BRAZIL
JUNE 30, 2009 - BRAZIL POST CRISIS
BETTER 2008 2009
BALANCE OF TRADE
(6 MONTHS)
US$ 11 billion US$ 14 billion
Domestic Car Sales 270.000 per month 300.000 per month
Indebtness Sâo Paulo 53% 46%
Average interest to consumer/month 7,46% 7,26%
Average interest to companies 4,36% 4,12%
Index Volume of Sales 142 points 154 points
IBOVESPA 53.392 points 54.775 points
Minimum Wage R$ 415,00 R$ 465,00
Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
JUNE 30, 2009 - BRAZIL POST CRISIS - II
WORSE 2008 2009
Index Industrial Stokes 98,5 points 94,5 points
Use of Industrial Capacity 85,4 % 79,8%
Monthly Production of Cars 300,00 284,000
Consumer Confidence 111.7 points 111,4 points
Index Industrial Production 136.1 points 114
Unemployment Rate 7,7% 8,1%
Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
5,4
7,87,5
3,5
-0,1
3,2
1,0
-0,5
4,75,3
4,4
3,4
0,0 0,3
4,3
1,3
2,7
1,1
5,7 5,75,1
4,5*
2,1
3,2
4,0
-4,3-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
7,0
9,0
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
*
20
10
*
1,0
BRAZIL’S GPD 1884 - 2010
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE *Projection
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP(Billion)
552 663.4 882 1,006 1,300 1,378
Population(Million)
178.9 181.5 185.5 186.7 188.9 196.0
GDP per capita (Thousand)
3,10 3,66 4,77 5,41 6,91 7,030
BRAZIL’S GDP IN US$
7,0
6,0
3,5
0,5 0,4
-0,3 -0,5 -0,5-0,9 -1,0
-1,9 -2,0 -2,0 -2,0-2,6 -2,8 -3,0 -3,0
-3,3 -3,4 -3,5 -3,5 -3,6 -3,6 -3,6-4,0 -4,0
-5,0 -5,0
-6,0-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Ch
ina
Índ
ia
Ind
on
ésia
Áfr
ica
do
Su
l
Co
lôm
bia
Ch
ile
Bra
sil
Po
lôn
ia
Ará
bia
Sau
dit
a
Au
strá
lia
Arg
enti
na
Tail
ând
ia
Turq
uia
Can
adá
EU
A
Fra
nça
Po
rtu
gal
Ho
lan
da
Hu
ng
ria
Co
réia
do
Su
l
Méx
ico
Rep
. Tc
hec
a
Esp
anh
a
Itál
ia
Rei
no
Un
ido
Cin
gap
ura
Taiw
an
Rú
ssia
Ale
man
ha
Jap
ão
Source: IMF
GPD: IMF’S PROJECTIONS FOR 2009
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: OUTBOUND
Source: Central Bank
0
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4,7
0,5
14,3
10,1
34,9
12,1
20,5
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: INBOUND
Source: Central Bank * JAN - MAY/2009
US$ Billion
SOURCES OF ENERGY
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy
86%
14%
55%
45%
0
20
40
60
80
World Brazil
Renewable Non-Renewable
1 Saudi Arabia 266
2 Iran 138
3 Iraq 115
4 Kuwait 104
5 UAE 97
6 Brazil 94
7 Venezuela 87
8 Russia 79
9 Libya 41
10 Kazakhstan 39
11 Nigeria 36
12 USA 29
Source: Oil & Gas Journal – January, 2008
In Billion of Barrels
WORLD'S OIL RESERVES
POVERTY IN % OF THE BRAZILIAN POPULATION – 1992/2009
Source: CPS/FGV
MIDDLE CLASS IN % OF THE BRAZILIAN POPULATION – 1992/2009
63,0
97,4
76,079,0
84,3
108,9
103,8
123,3
136,4
158,8
50,0
70,0
90,0
110,0
130,0
150,0
170,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fonte: MTE e IBGE
NUMBER OF MINIMUM WAGES REQUIRED TO ACQUIRE A BASIC CAR