1 1 MBACATÓLICA Marketing Research week 6 MBACATÓLICA JAN/APRIL 2006 Fernando S. Machado Marketing Research Marketing Research Week 6 • Sampling: Design and Procedures • Sampling: Sample Size Determination • Data Preparation 2 MBACATÓLICA Marketing Research week 6 Sampling: Design and Procedures ü The Sampling Process ü Sampling Techniques ü Application: Shopping Center Sampling
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1MBACATÓLICA Marketing Research week 6
MBACATÓLICAJAN/APRIL 2006
Fernando S. Machado
Marketing ResearchMarketing Research
Week 6
• Sampling: Design and Procedures
• Sampling: Sample Size Determination
• Data Preparation
2MBACATÓLICA Marketing Research week 6
Sampling: Design and Procedures
ü The Sampling Process
ü Sampling Techniques
ü Application: Shopping Center Sampling
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3MBACATÓLICA Marketing Research week 6
Identifying the Target Population
Determining the Sampling Frame
Selecting a Sampling Technique
Probability Sampling
Non-Probability Sampling
Determining the Relevant Sample Size
Execute Sampling
Data Collection From Respondents
Information for Decision-Making
Reconciling the Population, Sampling Frame Differences
Handling the Non-Response Problem
The Sampling Process
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Sampling ProcessSampling Process
Determining Target Populationü Look to the research objectives ü Consider all alternativesü Know your marketü Consider the appropriate sampling unitü Consider convenience
Target Population: The collection of elements or objects that possess the information sought by the researcher and about which inferences are to be made.
Sampling Frame: representation of the elements ofthe target population. It consists of a list or set ofdirections for identifying the target population.
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Selecting a Sampling Procedure• Decide whether to use probability or non probability sampling
Probability Samplingü All population members have a known probability of being in the sample
Non Probability Samplingü Costs and trouble of developing sampling frame are eliminatedü Results can contain hidden biases and uncertainties
Sampling Process (Contd.)
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Sampling Techniques
Classification of Sampling Techniques
ConvenienceSampling
ProbabilitySampling Techniques
JudgmentalSampling
QuotaSampling
SnowballSampling
SystematicSampling
StratifiedSampling
ClusterSampling
Other samplingTechniques
Simple randomSampling
NonprobabilitySampling Techniques
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1. Select a suitable sampling frame
2. Each element is assigned a number from 1 to N (pop. size)
3. Generate n (sample size) different random numbers between 1 and N
4. The numbers generated denote the elements that should be included in the sample
Procedures for Drawing Probability SamplesProcedures for Drawing Probability Samples
Simple Random Samplingü Each population member, and each possible sample, has equal probability of being selected
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1. Select a suitable sampling frame
2. Each element is assigned a number from 1 to N (pop. size)
3. Determine the sample interval i:i=N/n. If i is a fraction, round to the nearest integer
4. Select a random number, r, between 1 and i, as explained in simple random sampling
5. The elements with the following numbers will comprise the systematic random sample: r, r+i, r+2i, r+3i, r+4i,..., r+(n-1)i
Systematic Samplingü Involves systematically spreading the sample through the list of population membersü Commonly used in telephone surveys
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nh = nh=1
H
1. Select a suitable frame
2. Select the stratification variable(s) and the number of strata, H
3. Divide the entire population into H strata. Based on the classification variable, each element of the population is assigned to one of the H strata
4. In each stratum, number the elements from 1 to Nh (the pop. size of stratum h)
5. Determine the sample size of each stratum, nh, based on proportionate or disproportionate stratified sampling, where
6. In each stratum select a simple random sample of size nh
Stratified Sampling• The chosen sample is forced to contain units from each of the segments or strata of the population
Quota sampling Sample can be controlledfor certain characteristics
Selection bias, no assurance ofrepresentativeness
Snowball sampling Can estimate rarecharacteristics
Time-consuming
Probability sampling Simple random sampling(SRS)
Easily understood,results projectable
Difficult to construct samplingframe, expensive, lower precision,no assurance of representativeness.
Systematic sampling Can increaserepresentativeness,Easier to implement thanSRS, sampling frame notnecessary
Can decrease representativeness
Stratified sampling Include all importantsubpopulations,precision
Difficult to select relevantstratification variables, not feasible tostratify on many variables, expensive
Cluster sampling Easy to implement, costeffective
Imprecise, difficult to compute andinterpret results
Strengths and Weaknesses of Basic Sampling TechniquesStrengths and Weaknesses of Basic Sampling Techniques
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Application: Shopping Center SamplingApplication: Shopping Center Sampling
ü 20% of all questionnaires completed or interviews granted are store-intercept interviews
ü Bias is introduced by methods used to select the sample
Sources of Bias:• Selection of shopping center
• Point of shopping center from which respondents are drawn
• Time of day
• More frequent shoppers will be more likely to be selected
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Shopping Center SamplingShopping Center Sampling (Contd.)(Contd.)
Solutions to Bias:
ü Shopping Center Bias
• Use several shopping centers in different neighborhoods
• Use several diverse cities
ü Sample Locations Within a Center
• Stratify by entrance location
• Take separate sample from each entrance
• To obtain overall average, strata averages should be combined by weighing them to reflect traffic that is associated with each entrance
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Shopping Center SamplingShopping Center Sampling (Contd.)(Contd.)
ü Time Sampling- Stratify by time segments- Interview during each segment- Final counts should be weighed according to traffic counts
ü Sampling people versus shopping visits- If the goal is to develop a sample that represents the total population, then we should attach a lower weight to more frequent shoppers.
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Sampling: Sample Size Determination
ü Statistical vs. Ad-hoc Methods of Sample Size Determinationü Sample Reliability, Sampling Distributions and Sample Sizeü Some Practical Rules for Determining Sample Sizeü Non-response Problems
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Sample Size and Statistical TheorySample Size and Statistical TheoryDetermining the Sample Sizeü Use of statistical techniques or ad hoc methods ü Ad hoc methods used when researcher knows from
experience what sample size to adopt or when budgetary constraints dictate the size of the sample
A Sampling ProblemThe management of a local restaurant wants to determine the average monthly amount spent by households at fancy restaurants. Some households do not spend anything at all, whereas other households spend as much as 300€ per month. Management wants to be 95% confident of the findings and does not want the error to exceed plus or minus 5€. What sample size should be used to determine the average monthly household expenditure?
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Population Characteristics/parametersPopulation Mean (µ)ü Normally unknown; Determine its value as closely as possible
by taking a sample from population
Population Variance (σ2)ü Measure of population dispersion
ü Based on degree to which a response differs from population average response
Sample Characteristics/statisticsSample Mean (X)ü Is used to estimate the unknown population mean
Sample Variance (S2)ü Is used to estimate unknown population variance
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Distribution of Sample Means (n=10)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 >235
Distribution of Sample Means (n=100)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 >235
Effect of Sample Size on Distribution of Sample Mean
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Effect of Population Variance on Distribution of Sample Mean
Distribution of Sample Means (n=10 , sigma=50)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 >235
Distribution of sample means (n=10 , sigma=20)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 >235
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ü X will vary from sample to sample
ü As sample size (n) increases, variation in X will decrease ⇒ Standard error depends on sample size
ü As the population variation increases, variation in X will increase ⇒ Standard error depends on population variance
ü Assume that variation of X follows normal distribution - reasonable if population is normal or if sample size is large
ü Sampling distribution
• Indicates probability of getting a particular sample mean
Sample Reliability
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Sampling Distributions
( )XNX σµ,≈ ( )pNp σπ,≈
XX Sn
s
n=→=
σσ ( ) ( )
pp Sn
ppn
=−
→−
=11 ππ
σ
Standard error of sample mean:
Standard error of sampleproportion:
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Variable Population Sample
Mean µ
Proportion π p
Variance σ2 S2
Standard Deviation σ S
Size N n
Standard error of the mean
Standard error of proportion σp Sp
Standardized variate (X-µ)/σ
XσX
S
SXX /)( −
X
Symbols for Population and Sample Variables
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Finding Probabilities Corresponding to Known Values
Z Scaleµ-3σ µ-2σ µ-1σ µ µ+1σ µ+2σ µ+3σ
35
-3
40
-2
45
-1
50
0
55
+1
60
+2
65
+3
(µ=50, σ =5)
Z Scale
Area is 0.3413Area between µ and µ + 1σ = 0.3431Area between µ and µ + 2σ = 0.4772Area between µ and µ + 3σ = 0.4986
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Area is 0.475Area is 0.475
X 50X Scale
-Z 0Z Scale
Area is 0.025
Finding Values Corresponding to Known Probabilities: Confidence Interval
Area is 0.025
-Z
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95% Confidence Interval for the 95% Confidence Interval for the Population MeanPopulation Mean
XL
_XU
_X_
0.475 0.475
nX
σσ 22 =nX
σσ 22 =
For a given n we can be 95% confident that µ lies in the interval
[ ]UL XX ,
nerrorsampling
σ2=
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Size of Interval EstimateSize of Interval Estimate and and Confidence Confidence LevelLevel
ü Precision level: when estimating a population parameter by using a sample statistic, the precision level is the desired size of the interval(maximum permissible difference between the sample statistic and the population parameter)
ü Confidence level: probability that a confidence interval will include the population parameter
Sample size
To determine sample size we need to specify:
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Sample Size Question
ü Size of the sampling error that is desired (D)
ü Confidence level ⇒ Z
ü Use an estimate (s) of unknown population st. dev. (σ)
ü Sample size n = Z2 s2 /D2
Determining the Population Standard Deviation• Use a sample standard deviation obtained from a previous comparable survey or from a pilot survey
• Estimate the population standard deviation subjectively
Z Dn
σ=
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Sample Size When Proportions Are UsedSample Size When Proportions Are Used
n = z2 p(1 - p)/(sampling error)2
( )n
ZDerrorsamplingππ −
==1
üFor a 95% confidence level (Z=1,96), sampling error is maximised when π=0.5 ⇒ π(1- π)=0.25. Using 1s t expression we can obtain:
n erro100 9,8%250 6,2%500 4,4%750 3,6%
1000 3,1%
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Steps M e a n s Proportions 1. Specify the level of precision
D = ±$5.00
D = p - ∏ = ± .05
2. Specify the confidence level (CL)
CL = 95%
CL = 95%
3. Determine the z value associated with CL
z value is 1.96
z value is 1.96
4. Determine the standard deviation of the population
Estimate σ : σ = 5 5
Estimate ∏ : ∏ =
0.64 5. Determine the sample size using the formula for the standard error
n = σ 2 z2/D2 = 465
n = ∏ (1 -∏ ) z 2/D 2 =
355 7. If necessary, reestimate the confidence interval by employing s to estimate σ
= X ± z SX
= p ± z sp
8. If precision is specified in relative rather than absolute terms, determine the sample size by substituting for D.
D = R µ
n = C2z
2/R
2
D = R ∏
n = z2(1-∏ )/(R 2∏ )
Sample Size Determination for Means and Proportions
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The management of a local restaurant wants to determine the average monthly amount spent by households at fancy restaurants. Some households do not spend anything at all, whereas other households spend as much as 300€ per month. Management wants to be 95% confident of the findings and does not want the error to exceed plus or minus 5€.
i) What sample size should be used to determine the average monthly household expenditure?
ii) After the survey was conducted, the average expenditure was found to be 90.30€ and the standard deviation was 45€. Construct a 95% confidence interval. What can be said about the level of precision?
Rules of ThumbRules of Thumbü Sample should be large enough, so that when it is
divided into groups, each group will have a minimum sample size of 100 or more
ü If analysis involves comparison between subgroups, sample size in each subgroup should be 20 to 50
ü Use disproportionate sampling if one of groups of population is relatively small
ü Researcher must decide whether sample size dictated by budget constraints allows a worthwhile study to be conducted
ü Find similar studies and use their sample sizes as a guide
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Type of Study
Minimum Size Typical Range
Problem identification research (e.g. market potential)
500
1,000-2,500
Problem-solving research (e.g. pricing)
200 300-500
Product tests
200 300-500
Test marketing studies
200 300-500
TV, radio, or print advertising (per commercial or ad tested)
150 200-300
Focus groups
2 groups 4-12 groups
Sample Sizes Used in Marketing Sample Sizes Used in Marketing Research StudiesResearch Studies
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Non Response ProblemsNon Response Problems
ü Sample size has to be large enough to allow for non response
ü Those who respond may differ from non respondents in a meaningful way, creating biases
ü Seriousness of nonresponse bias depends on extent of non response
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Methods of ImprovingResponse Rates
Solutions to Nonresponse Problem -Improving Response RatesImproving Response Rates
ReducingRefusals
ReducingNot-at-Homes
PriorNotification
MotivatingRespondents
Incentives Questionnaire Designand Administration
Follow-Up OtherFacilitators
Callbacks
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üAttempt to estimate the nonresponse bias (assess whether there are significant differences between respondents and non-respondents)
üAdjust to non-response bias- Sub-sampling of nonrespondents (contact a sub-sample of non-respondents in a mail survey by telephone)
- Replacement (contact nonrespondents from an earlier, similar survey)
- Substitution (divide the sample into sub-groups that are internally homogeneous in terms of respondent characteristics but heterogeneous in terms of response rates)
- Weighting (Potitz approach: attach higher weight to respondents who are less often at home)
Solutions to Nonresponse Problem (Contd)
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Data Preparation
ü Editing the Data
ü Coding the Data
ü Transcribing the Data
ü Cleaning the Data
ü Statistically Adjusting the Data
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Prepare Preliminary Plan of Data Analysis
Data Preparation ProcessData Preparation Process
Edit
Code
Transcribe
Statistically Adjust the Data
Clean Data
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Preparing the Data for AnalysisPreparing the Data for Analysis (Contd.)(Contd.)
Data Editingü A review of the questionnaires with the objective of
increasing accuracy and precision.
Problems Identified With Data Editingü Interviewer Error (incorrect instructions from interviewers)ü Omissions (respondents may fail to answer a question or a whole section of the questionnaire)ü Ambiguity (responses may not be legible or may be unclear)ü Inconsistencies (preliminary check of obvious inconsistencies)ü Lack of Cooperation (ex: respondent who checks always the same response category in every item of a Likert scale)ü Ineligible Respondent
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Preparing the Data for AnalysisPreparing the Data for Analysis (Contd.)(Contd.)
Treatment of unsatisfactory responses
ü Return questionnaire to the field in order to be completed
ü Assign missing values
ü Discard unsatisfactory respondents
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Preparing the Data for AnalysisPreparing the Data for Analysis (Contd.)(Contd.)
Codingü Coding closed-ended questions involves specifying how
the responses are to be entered
ü Open-ended questions are difficult to code• Lengthy list of possible responses is generated
Coding and Transcribing Different Types of Variables
ü Categorical data on sex, age, income, etc
ü Categorical data with possibility to choose multiple categories