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Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Jan 25, 2017

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Technology

Payton Burger
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Page 1: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants
Page 2: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

LEARNHow to develop a sales

forecasting toolbox.

How to measure the success of

your forecast.

The cost of missing your forecast.

Page 3: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

What’s in your toolbox?

Always need to be

prepared for unforeseen

circumstances.

• Big snow fall

• Road construction,

delays

• Public Relations

Event

Page 4: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Toolbox: Calendars+ Community

> School schedules

> Community events

+ Marketing> Follow LTO schedules

> Build a forecast based on the items that you’re going to

sell.

> Know what weeks will be most popular for LTO

+ Federal and religious holidays> Understand how these holidays impact your business

> MLK Day, Veteran’s Day, Fourth of July, Easter, Labor Day,

Christmas, Thanksgiving, Memorial Day

How are your day parts impacted by these events?

Page 5: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Toolbox: Forecasts

+ Weather> Know the impacts of big storms, sunny days

> Relationship of weather and holidays

+ Menu Mix> Put your business in a position where you can order and and prep in sync with the menu mix

> Enter LTO product mix into BOH system

Page 6: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Toolbox: Competitor Activity

Page 7: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Toolbox: Sales

+ Last year’s sales> Matching supply and demand of last year

+ Comparable sales v. previous year> Looking at last year’s trend compared to what you’re

currently doing

> Adjust to accommodate differences

+ 4-6 week average> Pair this average with your calendars.

What factors influenced your sales last year?

Page 8: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Setting goals and measuring success

Page 9: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Are your numbers right?

To understand how effective your

sales forecasting is, you need to

look back at various metrics and

compare to a goal.

Page 10: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Example: Ineffective Forecasting

Page 11: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Sales Forecasting Calculation

+ Are you accurate?

+ Look at variance percent every day

+ Percentage should always be + or – 5%

Page 12: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Sales forecasting goals

+ How big is your window?> +/- 3% of sales on a $5,000 day = $300 window

> +/- 5% of sales on a $5,000 day = $500 window

+ Understand what your window is and forecast in the middle of it.

Page 13: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Measuring Success

+ Review metrics daily to get better control of your business> Data analytics tools make this easy

+ Pay attention to your order cycle > 3,4,5 days for more accurate ordering, inventory control

> How long will a delivery cover you for?

> Make sure I have enough product but not too much.

+ Weekly effectiveness is best only if you’re in the 3-5% variance range

Page 14: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

The cost of missing

your forecast+ Cash

+ Compromised customer experience

+ Poor brand image

+ Too much or too little product

Page 15: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Ordering and Prepping

+ Over or under ordering = loss

> Using resources to get more product

> Wasting unused product

+ Over or under ordering = food safety issues

> Exceed hold times due to excess product

> Excess product causes temperature issues

Page 16: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Scheduling & ForecastingThe employee schedule and sales forecast should work together

Page 17: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

A great schedule includes:

+ training of new hires

+ cross training of existing staff

+ development of the management team

+ time for detailed cleaning

….all within the framework of running the business and caring for the customers

Page 18: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Schedule and Forecast

Page 19: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

Conclusion

+ Arm yourself with the tools you need for an accurate forecast> Calendars

> Sales trends

> Competitor activity

> Forecasts

+ Measure your success> Data analytics

> Variance

+ Stay flexible> Adjust employee schedules to accommodate forecasting

> Bend with unforeseen circumstances

Page 20: Sales Forecasting Best Practices for Restaurants

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