SADC Food Security Update: September 2011 Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region 5/4/20151.

SADC Food Security Update: September 2011

Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region

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Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region Outline Overview

2010/11 rainfall season Cereal production Livestock production Fish production Staple food prices

Vulnerability assessment methodology Findings of 2011 vulnerability assessments Conclusions Recommendations

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1 Oct-31 Dec 2010

Below normal rainfall in the northern areas, particularly northern Tanzania

Above normal rainfall in the south-eastern parts of the region

1 Jan-31 Mar 2011

Above-normal rains in southern Angola and northern Namibia, Zambia and Lesotho

Below normal rain in southern Malawi southern and central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, northern Zambia

Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season

Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season cont.

4

Overall: normal to above normal rainfall in most parts in the region

Specifically:

Late start of the season in many parts of the Southern Area

Prolonged dry spell in February 2011 in Eastern and Central parts of the region resulting in yield losses (e.g. Southern Malawi, parts of South and Central Mozambique, Southern Zimbabwe, Swaziland and central South Africa

Excessive rains in the second half of the seasons in Southern Angola Lesotho, South Africa and Northern Namibia resulting in significant flooding, yield reduction due to leaching, water logging and infrastructure damage

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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal production

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Member

States*2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Angola 886 671 734 738 1053 1178 676 -43%

Botswana 24 36 29 37 42 55 73 33%

Lesotho 120 136 78 88 86 137 73 -47%

Malawi 1336 2755 3616 2976 3834 3572 4121 15%

Mauritius 2 2 2 2 2 2

Mozambique 1899 2098 2168 2284 2526 2785 2912 5%

Namibia 154 179 116 116 116 135 117 -13%

South Africa 13615 9222 9292 15550 14855 15122 13122 -13%

Swaziland 67 67 47 64 71 75 85 13%

Tanzania 5015 5189 5448 5622 5265 7095 6787 -4%

Zambia 1065 1597 1537 1452 2182 3078 3346 9%

Zimbabwe 754 1663 1200 660 1561 1534 1701 11%

SADC 24937 23615 24267 29589 31593 34768 33013 -5%

Source: Member States and SADC Secretariat

Production (‘000 Tonnes) by Harvesting Year 2010 vs 2011

% increase/ decrease

*Exclude DRC, Madagascar and Seychelles which have not yet established National Early Warning Units

Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal production Cereal production drops experienced in 5

countries - Angola, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania in 2011 compared to 2010.

Cereal production increases experienced in 6 countries - Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

At SADC regional level, cereal production drops by 5% between 2010 and 2011.

Despite the drop, the Region continues to depict a rising trend in cereal production as shown in the graph below.

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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production

Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia have also produced significant quantities of non cereal crops including roots and tuber crops, bananas, plantains and pulses.

Increases in cereal production in most Member States not adequate to meet domestic requirements.

Only two countries (Zambia and Malawi) recorded cereal surpluses.

Including roots and tuber crops Tanzania also has a food production surplus.

About 5 million MT cereal deficit recorded at regional level.

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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production cont...

Consolidated Cereal Balance sheet

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Angola 2 282 676 -1 606 Botswana 429 73 -356 Lesotho 378 73 -305 Malawi 2 704 4 121 1 417Mozambique 3 768 2 912 -856 Namibia 333 141 -191 South Africa 16 644 13 122 -3 522 Swaziland 159 89 -70 Tanzania 7 200 6 787 -413 Zambia 2 549 4 286 1 737Zimbabwe 2 535 1 701 -834 SADC* 38 981 33 981 -4 999 * Excluding Madagascar, Mauritius, SeyechellsSource: Member States and SADC Secretariat

* Forecast from FANR REWS based on rainfall, input supply and past production.** Including opening stocks for some of the Member Sates*** SADC (excluding DRC, Madagascar & Seychelles)

Country 2011/12 Cereal Requirement*

('000 tons)

2011/12 Cereal Availability**

('000tons)

2011/12 Surplus/Deficit

('000 tons)

Maize prices at Global and Regional level Globally – Rising maize and wheat prices SADC – Relatively stable maize prices due to

cereal surpluses experienced in the previous season.

Prices likely to rise later in the season due to the deficit

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USDA planting and stocks figures

• Political Tensions• Oil price surge• Depreciation of the US dollar• Winter wheat – uncertain growing conditions in US & China (dry-weather)

USDA Production Cut

Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011

International prices of wheat and maize rising

Main harvest

Main harvest

Main harvest

Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011

SADC – Relatively stable maize prices

Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock products

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Livestock Product

2006 Million tonnes

2007 Million tonnes

2008 Million tonnes

2009 Million tonnes

2010 Million tonnes

% increase (2009 vs 2010)

Beef 1.25 1.28 1.33 1.39 1.45 4.3Mutton 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 6.3Goat meat 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 6.3Pork 1.32 1.35 1.4 1.41 1.42 0.7Poultry 1.83 1.88 1.95 2.04 2.13 4.4Milk 4.44 4.55 4.65 4.75 4.86 2.3Eggs 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.63 3.2Wool* 2,400 2,460 2,525 2,600 2,700 3.8Mohair* 400 410 420 430 440 2.3Game meat**

700 720 750 750 750 0

Meat consumption includes beef, mutton, goat meat, pork and poultry.

* Production from the Kingdom of Lesotho (tonnes)

** Deer meat production from Mauritius (tonnes)

Source: Comprehensive Agriculture Development Programme (NEPAD) and FANR, 2009

Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock products cont.. Production of meat increased by about 3%

from 5.16 million tonnes in 2009 to 5.34 million tonnes in 2010.

Milk and eggs production increased by 2.3% and 3.2% from 4.75 million tonnes and 0.61 million tonnes to 4.86 million and 0.63 million tonnes respectively over the same period.

However, the Region still remains a net importer of these products.

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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Fisheries

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Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Angola 89 883 86 351 81 374 70 420 87 553 80 573 91 308Botswana 4 688 4 699 3 789 3 026 4 281 4 889 4 568 150 150 150DRC 61 603 70 368 66 854 64 250 66 385 67 527 71 686Lesotho 0 0 0 0 0 0 117Madagascar 28 642 30 711 33 550 32 481 32 269 36 945 36 584Malawi 1 730 553 451 620 1 075 766 2 735 71 268 75,000 80 000Mauritius 95 942 120 721 179 628 164 112 188 316 230 648 244 564  225140  243179  241391Mozambique 30 381 34 703 32 052 34 663 40 515 50 798 98 590 97 688 128 465 154 593Namibia 735 675 551 412 542 865 469 334 468 917 484 188 463 842 367 897 355 833 385 282Seychelles 135 947 162 846 195 262 269 914 257 558 284 955 302 739 230 000 279 000 242 000South Africa 477 385 482 315 471 667 496 928 447 750 479 197 368 239 337 365 425 324 393 949Swaziland 8 054 5 706 5 173 8 965 9 998 7 174 4 986 70 70 70Tanzania 142 959 157 840 151 750 164 220 161 884 158 596 341 108 327 845 325 466 335 674Zambia 22 779 24 035 24 469 25 785 28 853 30 033 60,236 73,542 79,403 84,716Zimbabwe 16 179 11 381 8 847 7 757 10 808 8 707 7 554

The Region experiences a slight increase in fish production

How food security and vulnerability analysis are done Food security analysis: Takes into account all the pillars of food security

including, availability, accessibility, sustainability and utilization.

Vulnerability Analysis In determining the number vulnerable households, the

analysis uses the livelihoods based approach which takes into account all the means by which households obtain and maintain access to essential resources to ensure their immediate and long-term survival including crops, livestock, labour, remittances etc.

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Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont.. 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Botswana* 10 400 Lesotho 270 000 948 300 541 000 245 700 553 000 353 000 450 000 200 000 514 000 Malawi 400 000 1 340 000 5 055 000 833 000 63 200 673 498 147 492 1 061 000 201 854 Mozambique 659 000 659 000 801 655 240 000 520 000 302 664 281 300 350 000 350 000 Namibia - - - - - - 224 795 106 297 243 474 Swaziland 217 000 600 400 634 400 465 900 345 000 238 600 262 000 160 989 88 511 Tanzania 844 333 686 356 848 019 995 433 581 974 780 416 240 544 1 217 767 Zambia 60 000 39 300 1 232 700 380 537 440 866 444 624 110 000 53 629 74 804 Zimbabwe 5 422 600 2 300 000 2 884 800 1 392 500 4 100 000 5 100 000 1 400 000 1 287 937 1 390 000

SADC** 7 872 933 6 573 356 11 997 574 4 553 070 6 604 040 7 892 802 3 116 131 4 437 619 2 862 643

South Africa*** 13 604 500 13 131 200 10 997 600 9 553 000 6 967 800 6 610 200 7 840 700 12 075 800 DRC**** 4 300 000 Source: *Figure from one livelihood zone onlySource: **SADC FANR Directorate - Member States Vulnerabilty Assessment CommitteesSource: ***Stats SA, GHSSource: ****DRC IPC Group

CountryTrends in food insecure population in the Region

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Data Source: National VACs

Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont...

General trend of food insecure population in the Region continued to decline (findings from Tanzania not available)

Compared to last year, number of food insecure households has increased in Lesotho (157%), Namibia (129%), Zambia (39%) and Zimbabwe (8%, not including urban areas). Decreases were recorded in Malawi (81%) and Swaziland (45%).

Chronic vulnerability and high levels of poverty persists across the Region

Despite declining trend in levels of vulnerability malnutrition levels still remain high

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Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont...

Malnutrition: prevalence still high in the Region

Summary of food security situation cntd…

Summary of food security situation cntd… Stunting represents chronic malnutrition i.e.

prenatal nutrition deprivation. Effects of malnutrition include:

Poor physical development and mental capacity Poor performance in school and high drop out rate High risk of dietary related non communicable

diseases affecting ability to earn decent living. Note: Figures in the chart relate to under-

nutrition among age group 0 - 59 months Data obtained from Member States

Demographic Health Surveys 2005 – 2009 and other national surveys.

Conclusions SADC as a region has recorded a deficit of about 5

million MT in 2011/12 marketing year. Number of people requiring humanitarian

assistance has decreased from last year. (not including TZ).

High rates of malnutrition (stunting) still persist in a number of countries.

Lack of access to food and non-food for the very-poor and poor remain persistent – indications of chronic vulnerability linked to poverty (e.g. Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana)

Agricultural subsidy programmes in the region continue to make significant positive impacts

Some surplus cereal producing countries are experiencing depressed producer prices

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Main Recommendations

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1. Continued emphasis is required on increased social protection and safety nets programmes

2. Enhance infrastructure development for improved market access e.g. transport, storage and communication

3. Continued support to agriculture input and output subsidy programmes

4. SADC Member States should facilitate inter-country trade of food crops, livestock and fishery products from surplus areas to deficit areas

5. Member States are encouraged to implement medium to long term interventions to address chronic vulnerability issues and high levels of poverty

6. Cooperating partners and traders should be encourage to procure locally and Regionally.

7. Urge Member States to scale up and prioritize food and nutrition security programmes.

8. Member States are encouraged to draw a link between food security and climate change so as to devise and implement adaptation and mitigation measures as appropriate.

9. Member States are asked to promote smallholder irrigation technologies such as water harvesting technologies and drip irrigation as opposed to dependence on only rain fed agriculture

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THANK YOU

OBLIGADO

MERCI