SADC Agricultural Information Management System: Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Activities for Early Warning for Food Security Blessing Siwela, Agricultural.

SADC Agricultural Information Management System:

Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Activities for Early Warning for Food

Security

Blessing Siwela,Agricultural Information Officer, SADC FANR

Outline• Background to SADC Region

• About SADC FANR, Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS)

• Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach

• Data / information gathering mechanisms

• Use of Earth Observation data for season crop and rangeland monitoring

• Main indicators of crop condition used

• Information Dissemination approaches

• Challenges

• Upcoming developments

15 Member States 220+ million people. Varied climate regions. Mostly uni-modal rainfall systems (bi-modal in

the north). Varied cropping systems. Cereal cropping dominant (Maize, sorghum,

millet, wheat) Cassava and tubers important in the north. Rain fed agriculture – irrigation only significant in

South Africa and Zimbabwe. Main Livestock types include cattle, goats, sheep Prone to floods and droughts. Other main challenges include bush fires,

deforestation.

SADC Region - BackgroundSouthern African Development Community

Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS)

• The Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS) programme is meant to provide planners and policy makers easy access to information necessary for revitalizing agricultural and natural resources growth, enhancing food security and promoting rural development.

• Activities include: – development of networks for timely collection of

information for early warning, – vulnerability assessments, – food security assessments,– establishment of a Food, Agriculture and Natural

Resources’ integrated database on food security and natural resources

AIMS: Operational Activities

• Supporting agro-meteorologists in the use of satellite imagery products and GIS for crop and rangeland for food security.

• Monitoring crops, vegetation and weather developments during the crop growing period using satellite images and GIS techniques.

• Collection of information on agriculture (crop and livestock performance) from national contacts

• Preparing and disseminating reports on the status of the main crop growing season, and the food security situation in SADC countries

AIMS: Operational Activities

Countries

Website

Bulletins

Country Windows

Image Review / analysis

E-mail

USGS/ FEWSNET

VITO

AMESD

SADC Archive

E-mail / internet

• Acquisition and distribution of remote sensing datasets used for crop and rangeland monitoring

Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach

Identify the key cropland and rangeland areas for monitoring

Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems

Climate / weather outlooks, Rainfall performance Crop stages, crop and pasture condition Hydrological information

Complement the information with remote sensing data Use convergence of evidence to analyse and arrive at

conclusions on the state of crops and rangeland Identify “hot spots” for close monitoring Prepare regular reports and distribute widely


• key cropland and rangeland areas for monitoring identified through analysis of

– historical yield and production information– livelihood analysis profiles

FEWSNETFAO


• Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems

– Climate / weather outlooks, Rainfall performance

– Farming inputs (machinery, fertilisers, seeds, etc)

– Crop stages, crop and pasture condition

– Livestock numbers and health

– Hydrological information

– Crop production estimates

NEWU


• Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems - How?

– Bulletins are received from early warning systems via e-mail [10-day agrometeorological updates, monthly food security reports]

– Questionnaires (hardcopy and electronic) send out to contact points

– Information exchange by e-mail, telephone

– Online forms for data collection are being introduced

Available Remote Sensing Data • Available satellite-based data used for regular monitoring:

– vegetation products (NDVI from SPOT VEGETATION, NOAA AVHRR, MSG)

– rainfall monitoring (CPC RFE 2.0, TAMSAT RFE)• These products are analyzed and further processed into

application specific products for flood and drought monitoring• Other datasets

• MODIS NDVI• Vgt4Africa datasets (NDVI, DMP, NDWI, SWB, etc)• LANDSAT• ASTER

• RFE is used to drive a number of applications used for agricultural season monitoring

• These include– Rainfall performance– Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI)– Onset of Rains– Soil Moisture Index– Quelea birds breeding forecasts

Applications of CPC RFE data

Monitoring Rainfall Activity• CPC Rainfall Estimate (RFE 2.0) data, which combines satellite images with rain gauge observations.• RFE images from USGS / FEWSNET

January 2008 rainfall estimates

Mozambique, 2008

Zambia, 2008

Jan 1-10 Jan 11-20 Jan 21-31

Monitoring Rainfall Activity•Time-series graphs•Comparison with reference data (e.g. Averages)•>>Image differencing•>>Percentage maps

Time series rainfall analysis

Percentage cumulative rainfall received

Crop Condition Monitoring

• The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is a crop specific water balance approach that models the effect of seasonal rainfall availability on potential crop yields.

• WRSI indicates the extent (in percent) to which the water requirements of the crop has been satisfied in a cumulative way at any stage of the crop growing season.

• Two approaches are used in the SADC region – using satellite-based, distributed approach, and a ground-based point-specific approach

• The model is being used in several SADC countries to monitor crop water use with a view to yield forecasting and estimation. SADC RRSU is providing training

• Operational model run at USGS but modern modelling software now publicly available from FAO (AgrometShell) and USGS (GeoSpatial WRSI).

Crop Water Balance Modeling

Water Requirements Satisfaction Index

(WRSI)

WRSI=100*AET/WR

Regression models

Yield Estimation


Malawi WRSI yield modelling


• WRSI yield models are used operationally to provide early estimates of yield and production

• Higher correlations with yield in the southern parts of the country

• Lower correlations in the northern districts could be related to poor distribution of rainfall stations

Main maize production areas [FEWSNET]

WRSI / Yield R-Sq values

Swaziland WRSI yield modelling


• Swaziland yield models and their reliability• Correlations with WRSI high in the main maize growing areas • Poor correlations in Lowveld

Main maize production areas [FEWSNET]

WRSI / Yield R-Sq values

Monitoring of Pests :Quelea birds breeding forecasts

• Forecasting suitable breeding conditions for the red-billed quelea birds

• Based on daily rainfall (currently NOAA CPC estimates) and ancillary information on quelea birds

• Updated weekly• Threats to small grain

crops• Developed by Natural

Resources Institute of the University of Greenwich, www.nri.org

http://www.sadc.int/fanr/aims/rrsu/quel/index.htm

Available NDVI datasets

Type Resolution Frequency Source

NOAA AVHRR 1.1km, 8km 10 days USGS/FEWSNET

SPOT VGT 1.1km 10 days VITO

MODIS 250m, 500m 16 days USGS

METEOSAT-8 3km BMS Receiver

Vegetation Monitoring

Available NDVI datasetsGAC 8km

Source: USGS / FEWSNET

1982-current

21-31 January 2006

S-10 NDVI (MVC) from FAO ARTEMIS (via FTP)

SADC-wide coverage

EumetCast distribution via MSG receivers, http://www.vgt4africa.org


NDVI time-series analysis

Time series analysis done for visualizing seasonal trends in the major agricultural areas

Comparison with average and other seasons


NDVI trend series smoothing (Reed et al, 1999)

February 11-20 2000

February 21-29 2000

March 1-10 2000

Weighted least squares approach to NDVI smoothing

5-dekad overlapping moving windows used


2003 drought in parts of southern Africa

VGT S-10 NDVI used in SADC report to show extent of drought

SPOT VGT


NDVI Based Indicators

Vegetation Productivity Indicator (VPI)references current the

NDVI value to its historical probability

Developed at Cranfield University

20% 40% 60% 80%


Information Products

• A number of bulletins are produced to meet information requirements, including:– Regular agro-meteorological updates at 10-day and

monthly intervals– Ad-hoc “Significant Weather Developments” (SWD)

bulletins which aim to “ provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns and their potential impacts to human lives and property”

– Other special bulletins to address current or issues e.g. Rainfall forecast interpretation; flood / drought alert

• E-mail distribution• Websites:

• www.sadc.int/fanr/aims• www.sadc.int/geonetwork/

Information Products• AIMS online data visualisation tools

– Crop production [national and provincial]


– Livestock health and numbers


– Populations vulnerable to food security

Information Products – Country Profiles

• AIMS online data visualisation tools– Country profiles

Information Products – Country Profiles

• AIMS online data visualisation tools– Country profiles

Agromet Up-dates

Agric Areas

Crops

Rainfall

Models

Agric Activities

Crops

Dry January conditions suggest a pre-mature cessation of short rains (Vuli) in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Tanzania.

2008-2009 Agriculture SeasonJan 1 – Feb 10, 2009 Rainfall,

Percentage of average

2009 rainfall has been below average in eastern Zimbabwe, and central and southern Mozambique, dry spells in these areas have resulted in moisture stress.

Good crop conditions reported in South African high maize production areas.

Consistent high rainfall totals in southern Angola and northern Namibia resulted in abnormally high river levels in the Cuvelai and Zambezi basin, causing extensive flooding. The flooding led to loss of lives, displacements of people and cattle, and also destroyed crops.

Significant Weather DevelopmentsForecast Cyclone Tracks

A tropical disturbance has formed in the Mozambique Channel. The chance of the disturbance devel-oping into a cyclone is currently fair. Due to the disturbance, heavy rains may be expected in central Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zambia and northeastern Zimbabwe.

The Significant Weather Developments bulletin is intended to provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns that might pose a threat to human lives and property. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy of this report, country specific requirements should be addressed to the National Meteorological Services. The RRSU and FEWSNET produce a situational Regional Flood Watch during the rainy season. The SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit P.O. Box 4046, Harare, Zimbabwe. Email: [email protected] Fax: 263-4-795283

Release date: 4 February 2002 : 1200 UTC

Infrared images showing progression of disturbance in Mozambique Channel

Cloud bands associated with the tropical disturbance, coupled with mois-ture influxes into the southern fringes of the rain-bearing Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may bring heavy rains to central Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zambia and northeastern Zimbabwe.

Heavy Rainfall Prospects

A tropical disturbance has developed in the Mozambique Channel. Satellite infrared images (see figures below) show a region of convection develop-

ing from off the central coast of Mo-zambique into the Channel. Winds are estimated at between 37 and 46 km/hr. The potential for the development

of a significant cyclone are currently fair.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL

A tropical disturbance or zone of disturbed weather is an area of low pressure relative to the surrounding region. Its associated cloud masses are usually not well organized as compared to an actual cyclone.

Terminology Note

The Regional Remote Sensing Unit will keep you updated on any significant development regarding the tropical disturbance.

0900 UTC 03 Feb. 2002

1200 UTC 03 Feb. 2002

0600 UTC 03 Feb. 2002

NO

AA

Clim

ate Pred

iction Ce

nter. 1600 UTC 03 Feb. 2002

Major River Basins

Examples from SWD bulletins

Online Data Management Tools• SADC GeoNetwork, www.sadc.int/geonetwork/

• A web based open-source metadata catalogue application

• ISO19115/19139 Geographic Metadata standards

• GeoNetwork integrates

– Search functions

– Administrative functions

– Data sharing - distribution and publication

• Developed by UN's FAO, WFP and UNEP to promote data sharing

http://www.sadc.int/geonetwork/

Current main challenges• Lack of resources for monitoring of agriculture by

extension officers

• Ground rainfall observation networks and Data management

– Awareness among decision makers on importance of these networks

– Training of meteorological officers

– Maintenance

• Reliability of rainfall estimates

• Identification of cropped areas

• Crop area estimation for food security analysis

• Availability software for analysis of early warning remote sensing and GIS datasets

Identified Areas of Need / Concern

Agricultural Production Information

Rainfall amount and patterns

Crop Area Measurement Yield Estimate Crop Cycles

Disaster Monitoring Drought / Flood Bush Fires Cyclones Pest and Diseases

Natural Resources Management Water bodies monitoring Soil types and Fertility Wetland statusLand Management Information Deforestation / afforestation Alien Species Invasion Grazing Capacity Seasonal biomass monitoring Classification of potential land

uses Demarcation of crop and

range land

Upcoming Initiatives

• Collaboration with African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) on preparation of agro-meteorological reports

– Theme: Agricultural and Environment Resource Management

– Access to EO datasets– Information management aimed at

improving decision making

Contacts

For more information on the AIMS programme, contact

– Blessing Siwela, [email protected]– Bentry Chaura, [email protected]

Website: www.sadc.int/fanr/aims

Thank You

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

SADC Agricultural Information Management System: Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Activities for Early Warning for Food Security Blessing Siwela, Agricultural.

Documents

rangeland monitoring

main crop

agriculture crop

season crop

information necessary

rangeland areas

sadc fanr slide

monitoring crops