SPECIAL T ASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS BUSINESS ACTIVITIES (SKK MIGAS) ©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17 th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced, stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas Indonesia Upstream Natura l Gas Policy & LNG Outlook Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja Deputy Chairman for Commercial Management 2 nd LNG Producer – Consumer Conference T okyo, 9 September 2013
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SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK MIGAS)
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
Indonesia Upstream Natural Gas Policy & LNG Outlook
Widhyawan PrawiraatmadjaDeputy Chairman for Commercial Management
2nd LNG Producer – Consumer Conference
Tokyo, 9 September 2013
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2©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
Future upstream oil and gas in Indonesia will be dominated with natural
gas production, as exploration results tend to be more of “gas prone”
Dominated
By GAS
The major reason of gas dominance is due to the Oil
Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) is lower than 100%
Peak 1977 Peak 1995
Dominated
By OIL
Starting 2002, Upstream energy in Indonesia is
dominated by gas and this trend will continue in the
future
OIL
GAS
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3©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
Notes:
*) Outlook based on realization per April 2013
*
While exports are being maintained, most of additional gas supply now
goes the domestic market; as this trends continue, new gas projects will
also need to cater domestic consumers as well as exports
4 , 3 9 7
4 , 4 1 6
4 , 2 0 2
4 , 0 0 8
3 , 8 2 0
3 , 7 7 5
3 , 6 8 1
4 , 3 3 6
4 , 0 7 8
3 , 6 3 1
3 , 4 1 3
1 , 4 8 0
1 , 4 6 6
1 , 5 1 3 2
, 3 4 1
2 , 5 2 7
2 , 9 1 3
3 , 3 2 3
3 , 3 7 9
3 , 2 6 7
3 , 5 5 0
3 , 6 0 6
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
B B T U
D
Export Domestic
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4©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
The gap between gas supply in the Eastern part of Indonesia and gas
demand in the Western part of Indonesia drives the need of gas
infrastructure development – hence domestic use of LNG
0.592.30
Central
Java
TIUNG BIRU JAMBARAN
CENDANA
Current Projects,
2013
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In the near future, upstream oil and gas new projects will be dominated by
gas – the large ones are in the form of LNG
Major ongoing upstream project
0
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
M B O E P D
Upcoming New Oil and Gas Projects
Banyu Urip Blok A IDD-Bangka IDD-Gendalo IDD Gehem Tangguh Train 3
Handil Ph 4 YY MDA-MBH Jam-TBR AbadiPeciko-7C South MHK Jangkrik
UL Bukit Tua Jangkrik NE
Kepodang Ande-Ande Lumut
Area MTD
Senoro
Musi Timur
GG
Legend:
Gas
Oil
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Uncommitted LNG Supply is prioritized tofulfill the unallocated demand for domestic
purposes as some domestic FSU/FSRUs has
not had allocated LNG yet
Estimate allocation for uncommitted LNG supply
Indonesia LNG Outlook
Allocation of Indonesia LNG
Uncommitted Supply
Domestic Commitment
Existing Commitment
Prioritized fordomestic
Free uncommitted
supply
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End Remarks (1)
• Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to continue albeit at lowerrates than projected – amidst the concern of the widening currentaccount deficit that the country is now facing. Even at the slowerrates, the growth will have to be fueled by energy resources, includingnatural gas.
• Even though there will be more natural gas projects, it is apparent that
domestic consumption has to be prioritized at the expense of lessexports. For this, the country will have to develop more natural gasinfrastructure, including LNG receiving facilities. Nonetheless,Indonesia will continue its commitments to its traditional LNG buyers,and new projects economics are still supported by some exportvolumes
• SKK Migas will have to make sure that the oil and gas activities – fromexploration to oil and gas monetization – are giving the utmost benefitto the country while giving fair returns to the investors
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SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK Migas)