Russian Politics P.Sc. 251 “Russians idolize the past, hate the present, and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov.

Russian Politics P.Sc. 251

“Russians idolize the past, hate the present,

and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov

RUSSIA Spawned from old Soviet Union Largest geographic country Eur-Asian, northern Massively uneven demography Ethnically diverse (language,culture, etc.) Only other large nuclear arsenal In the throes of massive transition

Pre-Soviet Highlights

Small fiefdoms Vulnerable to Swedes, Turks, Mongols Brutal, authoritarian politics “Tzar” Serfdom Conservative & Reactionary Education, science, pluralism stunted “Slavs”

Political History The Tzars & Tzarist Russia World War I The Russian Revolution The Bolshevik Revolution Civil War Lenin: 1921-24 NEP Ideology / PARTY

Marxian Concepts of Change

Meaningful players = classes History moves through stages/epochs When capitalist society develops fully, the socialist revolution will result Bourgeoisie

Petty Bourgeoisie Proletariat

Peasantry

Political History

policy uncertainty ... Leadership transition: void Stalin

planningcentralizationcontrolclassic political structure

Five Vertical Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates

PARTY State Military Pol.Police

MassOrgs

Five Vertical Parallel Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates

PARTY State Military Pol.Police

MassOrgs

Mass Organizations

Political History World War II emerging from WW II Stalin’s death / ‘53-’56 void 20th Party Congress / Secret Speech

KrushchevThaw“Change”

Who’s Listening ? Aspiring young politicos …

Political History Krushchev’s undoing … failed reform &

Cuba 1964: Brezhnev & Kosygin

gray, bureaucratsroutinized policiesillusion-making …

Seventies … posturing to cover decline ‘81-’85 void: Andropov, Chernenko

Summary Political History

Traditional structure: PARALLEL & VERTICAL & CENTRALIZED

No design for leadership succession Little multi-stage policy analysis … Objective = stay in power … Change is threatening! Power exists IF believed ...

The LINE Western systems of law require specificity,

precision, clarity of rules In a composite sense, laws specify the

“line” between what one can and cannot do In Western systems, persons are

encouraged to ‘use’ all the latitude they are given

As a consequence, elaborates systems must be put in place to “guard” the line

i.e. social control

The CLOUD In Communist systems (and elsewhere) rules are presented to the public in purposively

ambiguous terms Against the law to engage in “anti-system behavior;”

or “hooliganism” The “line” designating what you can or cannot do is

embedded in a cloud that you cannot see into … Result: given the uncertainty, you do not do anything

that could be judged illegal Consequence: highly efficient social control

`

Graphic: Line & Cloud

illegal behaviors

legal behaviors

The relationship between the PARTY and the STATE is most closely like which of the following?

(a) a father and twelve year old son(b) two twin brothers(c) a priest and a devout catholic(d) a general and a private(e) two political science professors

Think carefully …

Gorbachev

Different person; different attitude Younger, university educated Skeptical about past; apprehensive

future Problems: economic decline

military drain political monopoly polarized politics

Gorbachev Challenges Tinker or Change? radical/incremental Enlist Communist Party or remove? Centralize power or de-centralize power? Open door to public input? Increase information flow? Tolerate more inequality / incentives? Conform to western norms?

Gorbachev Choices ...

Tinker …? Loyal to CPSU Centralize while de-centralizing Open door / ajar Increase information Incentives + Conform in politics / caution in

economics

Coup: August , 1991

Union Treaty/issue: de-centralization Gorbachev on holiday Plotters: Politburo Memb./Conservatives YELTSIN & Gorbachev story Failure: inept plan, pitiful execution Fallout: dual leadership & ambiguity Gorbachev uncertainty, weakness

Yeltsin Betrayal & duplicity Political ambition & nationalism Minsk conspiracy Gorbachev without power base … Radical strategy without analysis! Dec. 25, 1991 What next??

The Issues of POWER in the New RUSSIA

Legislature vs. Executive Representation & Responsiveness Politics as confrontation; not compromise WINNING & losing: zero-sum outcomes “democracy” as elections ONLY the jabbing, critical milieu ...

Boris Yeltsin (before power)

1931 Date of Birth1986 Gorbachev brings to Moscow to run Party 1987 Yeltsin criticizes Party leadership1988 Yeltsin criticizes Gorbachev’s wife1989 quits CP; elected to Soviet leg. as democrat1990 creates “presidency” of Russian Republic1991 elected Russian “president” (June) resists COUP & backs Gorbachev (Aug) works to undermine USSR & break-up (Fall) declares himself Pres. country Russia (Dec)

Boris Yeltsin (with power)

1992 Declares all Soviet assets now Russian; Duplicates Soviet political institutions 1993 Sept. Announces dissolving Duma Oct. Violence: leg vs. exec Nov. “Constitution” Dec. Duma elections 1994 Constitutional referendum (Apr.) 500 Days experiment 1995 Chechen rebellion Duma elections (Dec.)

SPINNING BORIS …

Take away ideas?

Boris Yeltsin (with “real” power)

1996 June/July Presidential elections Yeltsin stroke; Yeltsin wins! 1997 Passive leadership 1998 new PM strategy; GKO crisis (Aug) 1999 Scandals … “family” Duma elections, resignation 2000 Yeltsin immunity early Pres. elections (Mar.) PUTIN

Understanding today …

Compare past to present … Compare present to future … Prognosis for health of the system

values … destination (“democracy”) machinery … vehicle

leadership … driver

VALUES

Expectations … Economic vs. Political Values /

Equality democracy vs. capitalism Replacement values: market system compromise Freedom vs. Tolerance The search for values - where, when?

RT reports that Medvedev signed a new law that

(a) defines the status, rights and duties of policemen

(b) defines corporate fraud and tax evasion

(c) outlaws vigilante groups aimed at stopping rogue gangs

(d) defines penalties for non-voting(e) changes the system for

constitutional amendments

More values ...

Performance vs. Faith Nationalism vs. Patriotism

Confusion, counter-productive polemics

? Can you expect support democracy when experiencing economic trauma

Architecture / Machinery

Legislature -- Executive Centralization -- De-centralization Distributive -- Extractive Legal/Social Control Cloud & Line Capitalism without Capital Education Military

Branches of Power 

What does Democracy look like? Elect leaders Listen Patience Legitimize

rules/control Doors & windows Consensus-

seeking Protect minorities

Recognize management costs

Prepare to compromise/lose

Organize Equitable rules Patriotism Transparency

Term Paper Topics.Berezovsky Fradkov Chernomyrdin

Golikova Kudrin Ivanov, Sergei

Serdyukov Shuvalov Khodorkovsky

Luzhkov Nemstov Nabiullina

Zubkov Yavlinsky

Zhirinovsky Lavrov

LEADERSHIP Opportunistic Insecure Egocentric? Inexperienced Recognize their POWER Russians expect unofficial behavior Uncomfortable with sharing power Pension for centralized control Lack legitimacy

Leadership Qualities

Rookies vs. “born agains”

Political WISDOM vs. Political COURAGE

Political Parties

Definition … Ideological, Mass, Platform founded,

Candidate founded ? “Right” “Left” Non-party Parties: “Unity” Coalitions

The early “line-up:” ’90’s

* Unity* Yabloko* Union of Right Forces* Russia’s Choice* Russian Movement

for Democratic Reform

* Russia’s Democratic Choice

Women of Russia Our Home is Russia Democratic Party Fatherland Congress of Russian

Communties # Liberal Democrats # Kommunists + Agrarian Party +

Elections ...

Elections as legitimizing mechanism Elections as weapon (parliamentary) Winter / Summer variants … ? Organization Predictions Costs

Election Types … Single Member

District Plurality

Understandable Constituency focus Big picture misrep Favors concentration Favors “splash”

candidates

Proportional Representation

“party lists” System focus No tie to

constituency Presumes no pattern Protects distribution Protects minorities Minimizes “splash”

Political Developments Duma Elections The Record …

‘93 BIG SURPRISE LD Party plurality; CP next ‘95 BIG SURPRISE CP plurality ’99 Emerging pattern CP plurality ’03 BIG SURPRISE United Russia; LD Party next

old system = “nomenklatura” Transition enabled many to retain power … ’93 * vast majority CP elites still in place * 57% nomenklatura retained

Duma Election: Dec. 2003 Pre-election “reforms”

1. make deal with republican governors (elect/appoint)

2. parties* making 5% cut – (4)

easy sledding … on any future ballot

3. parties not making cut -- (40) petitions: 2 million / 1 month very high election bond not automatically on ballot Parties “parties of power” vs. “opposition parties” … in new democracies how and when political parties emerge is

central to political development.* if United Russia not a party … entitled to status & privileges?

Dec. ’03 Results 60,712,299 voters (55.75% of 109 million registered voters)

37.57% voted for UNITED RUSSIA = 120 seats 12.61% KPRF = 40 seats 11.45% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT = 36 seats 9.02% HOMELAND (Rodina) = 29 seats

225 seats

YABLOKO 4.3% 2,609,823UNION OF RIGHT FORCES (SPS) 3.97% 2,408,356“against all” 4.7% 2,851,600

Dec. ’03 Implications

Winners: Putin & United Russia (loose pol. org. supporting the admin.)

Big Losers: CP & Democrats Big Individual Losers: Zyuganov, Yavlinsky, Chubais

Inside Look at Key Parties United Russia government officials/Establishment KPRF (“Communists”) opposition rhetoric/”tamed leftists”/no allies Liberal Democrats (Ultra-Nationalists) compliant nationalists/vote with E. Rodina (Motherland/Homeland) manufactured by gov to undermine KPRF; E. controlled

Political Party Landscape Factional Strength in State Duma (PR

portion) ’94-’95 ’96-’99 ’00-’03 ’04 --Russia’s Choice 73 -- --SPS -- -- 32PRES 30 -- --Yabloko 28 46 21LD Union 26 -- --DPR 15 -- --Our Home is R -- 65 --Fatherland -- -- 47

Unity -- -- 82 United Russia 120Women of R 23 -- --New Regional Policy 66 -- --Regions of R -- 41 40Agrarian 55* 35* 42

LD Party 64 51 16 Liberal Democrats 40Russia’s Way 14 -- --People’s Power -- 37 --

KPRF 45* 149* 89 KPRF 36 Motherland -- -- -- Rodina 29

Election Post-Mortem

United Russia claiming not pol. party refused to participate in TV debates 22 other parties debated … United Russia got “news” coverage

via leaders who were gov ministers OECD estimates that 56% of

campaign coverage was on Putin & Unity without “campaigning”

More Post-election eval … OECD concludes election NOT up to

“Western standard” OPPOSITION in ’90’s = (to exec leadership) Reds & Browns ’00-’04 = Reds & Dems ’04- ? = … Pinks Party System future? 49 – 22 – 4 -- ? Optimal? 2, 1

Key questions about Parties

Does more electoral choice = more democracy? Are political parties shaped by the

general public? define issues & recruit leadership

Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process?

Key answers about Parties

Does more electoral choice = more democracy? NO Are political parties shaped by the

general public? NO define issues & recruit leadership

Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process? NO

Next Critical Event …

Presidential Campaigns ‘04 (in limbo until Duma result)

Parties with entitled Candidates … United Russia – Putin KPRF – Zyuganov out; new leader running contemplating boycott Liberal Democrats – Zhirinovsky replaces himself with sacrificial lamb Rodino runs unknown; not party leader

Fallen CANDIDATES … Democrats via Duma election exclus. (Yavlinsky, Nemtsov, Chubais) Khodorovsky via indictment (oligarch jailed on tax charge; held without bail; hearing March 25th) Rybkin via breakdown (Berezovsky financial backing; former PM and Natl Security Advisor)

Presidential Election

March 14, 2004 Conventional wisdom: Putin will win

on first ballot with 70% of the vote No other candidate has system-wide

name recognition Putin will not debate

Lingering Political Issue … THIRD TERM? *unratified constitution prohibits third term;

*constitutional amendment would be required;

*2/3 vote in Duma = 300/450 (PM received 352 votes in new Duma)

Persistent ProblemsChechnya no discussion during campaign

Black Widows -- Moscow subway, theater, streetsPolitical Illusions (internal/external)

Military attempt at bolstering / sub-missile debacle

“Doing the job without the resources” Confusion about their role … since August Coup ‘91

Economic development → Oligarchs & uneven wealth resonates w/masses

Rodino advocates returning wealth / rev. privatiz →Competitive manufacturing→Jobs

Election “Misbehavior” 2008

OSCE/14 countries refuse to monitor Kasyanov, Kasparov, Zyuganov Other Russia refused permit demonstrate day after …

Nemtsov & vanishing democrats Zhirinovsky & LDPR boycott Boycott criminal under law to protect right to

participate in elections

State controlled media coverage: Medvedev Dec. 70%; Jan. 88% Zyuganov 11%; 2% Election law: “equality of the candidates in

campaign time in the mass media” court ruled: lack of a definition of equality

means that the statistical analysis of the coverage is inadmissible – all candidates must simply receive “some” coverage!

Campaigning? Medvedev officially took one day off without

pay this week to “campaign” – only day in entire candidacy!

Made one 10 minute address stressing political stability and protecting Russian sovereignty

Aired free repeatedly during newscasts … Should have cost $800,000 each time and

violated laws governing campaign ads – Media defended saying that Medvedev’s

“event was more interesting and newsworthy

Channel One: Posner blacklist/”stop list” not to be invited; forbidding the mention of individual public

figures: Kasparov, Yavlinsky December parliamentary elections: United Russia polled over 99% in many districts farce, Byzantine palace intrigue, tasteless farce

played out by untalented directors

Vote Counting … The Central Election Commission has

created a sub-commission to officially tally the votes.

They will set the voter protocol, issue the official tally of votes and field all complaints.

ALL members of the sub-commission are members of the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party!

Election Polls & Predictions

Medvedev 72.9% Zyuganov 15% Zhirinovsky 10.9% Bogdanov 1% turnout 70%

2004: Putin 71.31% turnout 64.4%

Putin’s “Last” Words …New Year’s Address, Last Speech, Last “Press Conference”

100 questions/78 journalists

Called opposition criticism “unconstructive” Most bothersome problem: “corruption” Solution:“legal, even repressive” measures Characterization 1990s: “Ravaged” by inflation,

devaluation, default; by terrorists and civil war; by outside forces inciting separatism. State power was “ineffective;” much of economy in hands of oligarchs and criminals.

Dmitry MEDVEDEV

Born 1965, parents = intellectuals in school: leader, calm, disciplined, confident Fan, British hard rock: Black Sabbath, Led

Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Deep Purple At 23, christened into Russian Orthodox

church Studied LAW, St. Petersburg, 1987 Taught civil law; external relations office St. Petersburg; business world & lawyer

Kremlin … Putin protégé Deputy Head of Government Administration Deputy Chief of Staff (President Putin) 2000 March 2000 Putin’s Campaign Manager June 2000 Gazprom Board Chairman October 2003 Chief of Staff 2005 First Deputy Prime Minister (Duma) healthcare, education, ag, housing Dec. 10, 2007 Putin taps Medvedev as

preferred candidate for President; wants Putin as PM

Characterizing Medvedev … Shevtsova, “Medvedev is not an extremist. He

is not known for any kind of harsh views on politics, and apparently Medvedev better suits Putin’s view of how to achieve continuity.”

“Medvedev projects a mild-mannered public image and has been widely seen as a functionary devoted to Putin rather than as an independent thinker.”

“If Putin wants to return in two or three years, Medvedev will be the person who will without a doubt give up the path for him.”

Medvedev’s vision …

“Russia can only be governed by a strong presidential power. If Russia is turned into a parliamentary republic, it will disappear. This is my profound conviction. Russia is a federative structure and must be based on a firm executive vertical.”

Medvedev “Program” Four I’s & Seven TasksInstitutions, Infrastructure,

Innovation, Investments1. Overcome legal nihilism / reform courts2. Lower administrative barriers3. Lower tax burden4. Make ruble hard currency5. Modernize transportation & energy6. Create basis for innovation7. Develop program for social development

Economic Plan for ’10 &2nd Decade

Raise pensions 10%Raise stipends for birthsControl pharmaceutical pricesRaise utility prices 10%Create banking regulations Improve living standards for militaryDe-centralize control of licenses

Economy: Lurching forward & backward

Suffering from Spasms -- GOOD NEWS

Russian GDP per cap $16,000 2.7 X China’s Flat tax = 13%; corporate tax = 24% lowest in Europe Privatized 5500 more firms In 2000, economy 22nd in world; ‘09 7th

Oligarchs under severe pressure from government Middle class from 8 million to 55 million Poverty: from 30% to 14% 2008 stock market set world record losses; 2009 set world record for growth! Standard & Poor’s raised “outlook” from “negative” to

“stable”

Economy: The BAD News

4-5% of Russian are politically loyal entrepreneurial class that behaves like the middle class in western societies

Economic Openness index (Fraser Institute): Russia ranks 83rd behind Uganda, Namibia, Kazakstan Industrial output down 11% in ’09 Natural gas output down 17% Fixed investment declined by 18% Exports down 44%; Imports down 31% Medvedev: Unemployment main social problem 6.5m 9%

Economic Priority Shift …

Medvedev: “invest abroad” follow China’s example, buy foreign

companies to boost tech development government should subsidize to enable

retooling of Russian industry diversify investments; win new markets create influence abroad; thereby

strengthen state

Plans for 2020 …

If PM, no portrait of Medvedev in office Middle class – 70% Responsibilities for econ & social devel transferred to regional & local authorities Russia returns to the world stage Econ moves beyond reliance on natural

resources & commodities Innovative development for competitive

advantage

Disgrace that one in every two Russian men die before 60; life expectancy to 75

Close gap between rich and poor Four fold increase / labor productivity Become world financial center Reduce bureaucracy & corruption Embrace de-centralization/accountability

Assessing the future …REQUISITES:

Value consensusDiscernable direction

Political Machinery“Vehicle” to transport society

Effective Leadership “Driver” to maneuver toward

destination

Putin = driver without operable vehicle or established destination …

Media Deterioration Most dangerous place in the world for

journalists not in war zone Reporters Without Borders … “Russia among those countries where press

freedom is under the greatest threat.” “on a par with Zimbabwe”

Journalist two months in prison: marching in demonstration , media offices raided, forcibly assigned to psychiatric hospitals, mysterious killings of investigative reporters

Intellectual /Academic Squeeze

EU University (St. Petersburg) closed “unprecedented attack on academic freedom” buildings declared fire hazard, all academic

work ceased, classrooms sealed, library shutPolitically motivated closing: 1 B Euro grant to advise Russia’s political parties;

EUSP = agent of foreign meddling Ethnically motivated killings of dark-skinned persons in Moscow – six last week; sixteen since Jan. 1

Psychology: More GOOD NEWS

Optimism is UP Pessimism is DOWN 30% optimistic 18% pessimistic (down from 30%) 70% of firms took negative actions –

43% cut jobs, 34% cut wages, 26% cut work weekyet … 30% of young Russians say that they can

find jobs quickly if dismissed 53% say MEDIA does satisfy even the most discerning

demands of the public (young 63%) 48% say the MEDIA should instill moral values

LAW & ORDERFighting Corruption from New Angle

Past: pursue “takers” those demanding bribes Now: pursue “givers” those offering bribes Central government has prosecuted 800 senior

government executives on corruption charges Russia ranks in the bottom ten European countries in

terms of corruption Corruption perception index: Russia 146th in world Mushrooming POLICE scandals: murders, no convictions Official Police response: demand end to defamation of

police … political battle emerged: police vs. media

LAW & ORDERUltra-Nationalist ViolenceBands of ultra-right nationalist groups randomly targeting

nonwhite foreigners Extreme nationalism and neo-Nazism across Russia. More

than 20 different types of xenophobic groups are active in Moscow alone

15 percent of the young Russian population supports the extreme nationalistic movement

2009, 71 foreigners killed in hate crimes; ‘08, 110 ’10, 6

“It will be tough to find anyone willing to invest or study in a country where violence and murders are motivated by skin color and nationality”

First Generation Change & Changers

New ValuesNew Political ArchitectureNew Leaders New Relationships / governors & governed

New International DependenciesNew Foreign Relations

Net = uncertainty

Price Waterhouse study/predictionPricewaterhouseCooper believes by 2050,

Russia will be Europe's “leading” economyChina and India will lead Asia (competition)Brazil will lead South AmericaUS would lead North America

PwC predicts that Russia would become Europe's largest economy by 2020

Medvedev’s assessment Chronically backward Primitive Dependent on raw material exports Averse to invent or manufacture Labor productivity is low Ubiquitous & chronic corruption Modernization founded on humanistic values Requires “knowledge based” economy “true and lasting progress can be made only by free and

creative citizens, confident of their liberty.”

Demographics: News

New campaign against alcohol consumption Goal: cut consumption in half by 2020 Consumption: 18 liters per year (homemade)

23,000 died alcohol poisoning; 75,000 morerelated diseases; 500,000 accident related

Male life expectancy under 60; Europe aver. 77 Remedies:

Ban advertising; censor all movie scenes

Demographics: BAD News

400,000 die annually from smoking … die 10-15 years earlier than without smoking 70% men smoke; 20% women

‘09 “natural population” declined by 37% to 141m ► fully offset by immigration …

first growth in 15 yrs

POLITICS: Bad News

Medvedev’s MODERNIZATION program►“Forward Russia” is underfunded! 5 main goals will get 6/100 of 1% of the Fed budget

Industrial production; armed forces; healthcare; information technology; education

►“Modernization will be conservative in content, nonviolent in methods, and democratic from the standpoint of reliance on the existing democratic institutions. The system will be spared revolutions.”

Negative Predictions: already patterns

Government functions may of necessity be assumed by business or criminal structures

Payments for “free” medical care increasing Fees & bribes now commonplace in secondary

and higher education Army reform is threatened by disappearing arms Terrorist acts commonplace in outlying regions

Net effect: public see declining performance by the state

Newest Russian Study:Jan. 2010“Russia in the 21st Century: Visions for the Future”

“Twenty years after the beginning of society’s transformation, we can acknowledge that political and economic development has proven difficult.”

“We have moved forward without determining where we are going and what our vision of the future is.”

Putin Medvedev Comparison

Vertical of power Sovereign democracy Strong state Grow government

sector Media requires

management Experts judge:

the stronger

Freedom Free & Prosperous Fair political competition Entrepreneurial liberty Government scrutinized

and accountable Media unleashed Experts say: emerging

More on the “relationship” Next presidential election 2012 … in two years Record: Putin two terms ‘00 – ’08

Medvedev in first term ‘08-’12 Next presidential election has 5 year term Officially announced: ONE of them will run in 2012 Not both! “We are close, understand each other well and

work together.” Medvedev could not win without Putin’s support

In Putin’s book, FIRST PERSON, “Medvedev is one of those people who inspire in me a sense of fellowship and team spirit.”

Bottom line: of the Russian study

“Russia must face the reality that it may not achieve the highest performance in terms of quality of life, productivity, economic competitiveness or a fully functioning and responsive political system.”

Drawing Cautious Conclusions:

Medvedev is presenting himself as more committed to western style reform

Some argue that this is a good cop; bad cop strategy to appeal to broader segments of Russian voters

It is unwise to assume significant differences exist between Putin & Medvedev given that they need each other

The differences are positive in any event because they frame a dialogue on the issues which can lead to more effective policies

The Report Card …

Consensus on values:slowly forming around positive ideas C

Systemic architecture: (political & economic machinery)

more clearly assembled than earlier C+but not yet functional

Effective, skilled leaders:significant progress toward reason B

Perhaps there is reason to …

“fear the future”

US Presidential elections …Medvedev: “work with any” “business of the American people” “It is certainly easier to work with a person

who has modern positions and is not blinded by the past.”

Institute of Political research: Markov“a victory for Senator McCain would be the

worst-case scenario” McCain: “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw

the letters KGB.” McCain wants Russia out of G-7.

Clinton: “Putin doesn’t have a soul.” Putin: “A head of state should have a head.”

Obama: Since Putin will remain in charge,“We should work on arms control and

mutual interests while not neglecting democracy and accountability.”

Where does this leave us? Foremost: confident there will something to

talk about in 2009! Russia is likely on a path similarly

“variable” to the Putin years Russia is reasserting itself propped up by

the high world prices for natural resources US policy faces an opening … new

leadership could restructure the dialogue.

“Democracy” Recognize

management costs Doors & windows Listening Accountability Elects leaders Consensus-seeking Equitable rules

Patience “legitimize” rules Patriotism Prepare to compromise

/ lose Organize “global” attitude Choice Protect minorities

Political Questions … Is the system moving in a democratic

or non-democratic direction? UNCLEAR

Are political institutions taking shape? NO Are external relationships helping or

hurting Russia develop? HURTING Does the leadership have “vision?” NO If so, are they up to the task? NO