Rural Oregon 2015

1

Rural OregonAnalyzing Demographic and Economic Trends

Across Rural Oregon and a Look Ahead

September 2015

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon’s Nonmetropolitan Areas

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Regions

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ Regions

Prior to 2011, Eastern Oregon Nonmetropolitan Area consisted of Eastern and North Central


Rural America is Recovering Slower than Metros


Rural Oregon is No Exception

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

07 09 11 13 15

Oregon and the Great RecessionEmployment Change From Peak

Urban Oregon

Rural Oregon

Data: Seasonally-Adjusted, 3 Month Average, Latest data point: June 2015Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


Partly Due to Less Diverse Economies

Bigger cities have more diverse economies (advertising firms, ballet dancers, etc).

Less industrial diversification not necessarily bad. In good times for your region’s specialty, economy really grows. In bad times, your local economy really suffers however.

E.g. Rural Oregon with timber in 1960s and 1970s. North Dakota with oil and gas in 2000s.


Exposure to Housing and Government Extremely High

Rural Oregon economies had 37% of payroll tied directly to housing and government prior to the Great Recession.

The two biggest drags following the Great Recession where housing and government.

As migration flows return, so too is the housing industry.

Public sector is stabilized and adding jobs in select locations. Not Curry or Josephine however.

9.8%

15.5%

10.3%

16.5%

12.7%

24.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Housing Government

Housing and Government in OregonShare of Local Payroll, 2007

Urban Oregon Rural

Housing = Construction, Wood Product Manufacturing, Furniture Stores, Building Material and Garden Supply Store,Real Estate | Data: 2007 QCEW | Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


Good News: Job Growth Has Returned, but…


…Only the Gorge is Fully Recovered, and…


...Individual Counties Differ Considerably


Key Issue: Demographics

• Significant Baby Boomer population in Rural Oregon

• Few in root setting years when people settle down, start their careers in earnest, get married, buy a house and start a family0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Age Group

Oregon Population by Age, 2015

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Rural Oregon

Urban Oregon

Root SettingYears, 25-34


Participation Drops with Age

• Rural counties tend to be older, have lower participation rates

• Impacts productive capacity of regional economy

Clatsop

Coos

Crook

Curry

Douglas

Gilliam

Grant

Harney

Hood River

JeffersonKlamath

Lake

Lincoln

Malheur

Morrow

Sherman

Tillamook

Umatilla

UnionWallowa

Wasco

Wheeler

Benton

Clackamas

Columbia

Deschutes

Jackson

Josephine

LaneLinn

Multnomah

Polk

Washington

YamhillU.S.

OR

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Lab

or

Forc

e Pa

rtic

ipat

ion

Rat

e

Share of Population 65 Years and Older

Rural Oregon

Urban Oregon

Data: 2013 ACS, 5 Year Estimates | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


Potential Growth Likely Shrinking

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

U.S. Oregon U.S. Oregon Gorge NE SE S.Coast

N.Coast

Metros Rural Rural Oregon

Rural Labor Force ShrinkingChange from 2007 to 2014

Source: BLS, Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economci Analysis


However, Influx of Migrants is Strong

• The Timber Belt suffered an economic collapse and restructuring just as severe as the Rust Belt

• Households moved away from the Rust Belt in search of jobs

• Households keep moving into the Timber Belt


…To Nearly All Oregon Counties…

Baker

Benton Clackamas

Clatsop

Columbia

Coos

Crook

Curry

Deschutes

Douglas

Gilliam

Grant

Harney

Hood River

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath

Lake

Lane

Lincoln

Linn

Malheur

Marion Morrow

Multnomah

Polk Sherman Tillamook

Umatilla

Union

Wallowa Wasco

Washington Wheeler

Yamhill

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Net

Mig

rati

on

fro

m O

ther

Sta

tes

Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon

Net Migration of Tax Filers:Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011

Losses to otherstates and other Oregon counties

Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from otherstates

Gains from other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties

Gains from Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states

Gains from other states and other Oregon counties

Losses to other states outstrip gainsfrom Oregon counties


…But Different Type of MigrantGaining experienced and some wealthy households, losing working age families on net

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Health Care CashContributions

Shar

e o

f To

tal E

xpen

dit

ure

s

Older Households Spend More On Health and Cash Contributions

55-6465-7475+

Source: BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Expenditures Wealth

Household Finances for Top Half of the Income Distribution

50-64

65-74

75-84

85+

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute


Important Forward Looking Indicator Looks OK for Rural Oregon

33.1% 32.5%

18.7% 18.6%

24.7%21.8%

18.3% 17.6% 17.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Oregon U.S. Oregon U.S. Gorge NorthCoast

South-east

North-east

SouthCoast

Metro Rural Rural Oregon

Educational Attainment25-64 Years Old, Share with Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Data: 2013 ACS, 5 Year Estimates | Source: Census, USDA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

• Gorge and N. Coast rank among best rural areas in entire country

• Rest of Rural Oregon right around the average yet above the typical area (above the median)


Quality of Jobs in Rural Oregon

Rural job growth slower than metros

Middle-wage jobs lacking everywhere

High-wage jobs stronger in rural Oregon than rural America over past decade


Occupational Mix is Solid• Good overall mix

between high-, middle-and low-wage jobs relative to rural America

• Strong concentrations in scientists (foresters and related) and agriculture (includes fishing and timber)• Ag nationwide is low-wage

work, however on coast and in southern Oregon it is much better paying

• Lower on architecture/ engineering, computer/ math and production occupations

This is combined Coastal, Eastern and N. Central nonmetropolitan areas


Rural Oregon is Good Place to Grow Up

• Eastern Oregon areas among top third of all U.S. for economic mobility• 700+ areas

• La Grande and Ontario are typical

• Southern Oregon below average, most likely due to timing of research which follows children born in early 80s• Worst possible time to

start the clock on southern Oregon due to timber industry


Pockets of StrengthWhile Broad Prosperity is Lacking, Not All Hope is Lost

• On the coast, dairy, fishing and tourism are strong

• In the gorge, beer, drones and fruit are doing well

• Out east, manufacturing expanding, wheat harvests have been good and Morrow is booming

• Down south, timber industry is adding some jobs and migration flows are returning

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Regional OverviewsFacts and Figures by Rural Oregon Region


Columbia GorgeGilliam, Hood River, Sherman, Wasco, Wheeler


North CoastClatsop, Lincoln, Tillamook


South CoastCoos, Curry


Northeast OregonBaker, Grant, Morrow, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa


Southeast OregonHarney, Klamath, Lake, Malheur


Contact

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

[email protected]

(503) 378-4052

Rural Oregon 2015

Economy & Finance