Running for President

Running for

President:

Nominating Process

and

Electoral College

Running for President…

• In 1828, Andrew Jackson made one of the first

“campaign tours” of a presidential candidate

• Prior to that year, it was the custom of candidates to

hold themselves aloof from the campaign…

• It was considered “undignified” to aggressively pursue

the office.

• No incumbent President campaigned overtly for himself

before Teddy Roosevelt did during the election of 1904.

• The campaign process now

begins two years in advance of

the General Election

• Contemporary candidates

aggressively seek their party’s

nomination and the Presidency.

There are two separate and distinct

phases to the Presidential

Campaign…

1. Party Nomination

(Primaries and Caucuses)

2. General Election

(Electoral College)

Presidential Candidate

Nominating Process:

Party Primaries and Caucuses;

Delegates and Super-Delegates;

and more…

• In recent decades, the presidential

nominees of the two major political

parties have emerged during state-

by-state primary elections and

caucuses.

2012 Primary and Caucus schedule:

• January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)

• January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)

• January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)

• January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)

• February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

• February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

• February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus) Minnesota (caucus)

• February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary) Michigan (primary)

• March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)

• March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)

Alaska (caucus) Georgia (primary)

Idaho (caucus) Massachusetts (primary)

North Dakota (caucus) Oklahoma (primary)

Tennessee (primary) Texas (primary)

Vermont (primary) Virginia (primary)

/

“First in the Nation”…

• Iowa and New Hampshire begin the

process in January (“first in the nation”)

• Each state determines the date for their

primary, in consultation w/ party rules.

• For voters, there are three types of

primaries….

– Closed Primary: The voter is limited to

selecting candidates of the party of which

he/she is a registered member

– Open Primary: Voters can vote in either party

primary without declaring party affiliation

(there are no restrictions on non-affiliated

voters). However, the voter must vote for

candidates of only one party

– Blanket Primary: Voters may vote for

candidates of more than one party.

The Caucus Method:

• While the caucus method is more complex

compared w/ a primary, the end result is the

same…

• … Selection of delegates to the national

party’s nominating convention.

• In the typical caucus, voters meet at the local

precinct to select representatives to attend the

next meeting.

Convention Delegates:

• To be nominated, a candidate must receive a

specified number of delegates at the party’s

national nominating convention.

• Delegates are allocated to each state proportionally –

based, roughly, on the population of each state.

• Selection of delegates is conducted in one of two

methods: presidential primary or a caucus.

• The overwhelming majority of delegates are selected

through some form of a presidential primary.

What is a Delegate?

• Delegates are individuals that are selected to represent their

respective state at the national party nominating convention.

• The rules for selecting delegates, largely dictated by the state and

national political parties, can be very complex

• The guidelines vary not only by party, but by state, and

sometimes by congressional district.

• During the Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, voters are

selecting a “slate of delegates” that will cast their vote for the

party’s nominee at the National Nominating Convention

Who are the Delegates?

• Delegates are typically loyal party activists - including local

political leaders, or early supporters of a certain presidential

candidate

• Delegates can include local elected officials, such as a county

commissioner, or a state legislator

• Delegates can also include members of a political campaign's

steering committee.

• In some cases, delegates are long-time active members of their

local or state political party

• Overall, being a delegate is "one of the rewards” for a person’s loyal

service to the party over the years

• Individual campaigns have a “right of refusal" -

the ability to reject a particular delegate.

• The individual presidential campaigns try to

ensure that delegates to the convention are, in

fact, true partisans who support their candidacy

• For example: In 2008, the Obama campaign

wanted a “slate of delegates” who would –

without a doubt - cast their vote for him during

the Convention.

• Ahead of the 2012 Conventions, Romney and

Obama were their respective party’s

Presumptive Nominees

• The delegates to the National Party

Conventions are supposed to “take their cue”

from voters who cast ballots during their state’s

primaries and caucuses

• However, each party's rules make it possible

for multiple rounds of balloting if no single

candidate is able to gain a majority of

delegates on the first ballot.

• Since 1976, all major party conventions

have opened with the nominee known in

advance (i.e., the “presumptive

nominee”).

• Some analysts speculated that the 2008

Democratic contest, and the 2012 GOP

contest, would result in a “brokered

convention”.

The Brokered Convention:

• If no single candidate receives a majority of

delegates by the end of the primary/caucus

season, a scenario called a brokered

convention could result.

• Under such a scenario, the party’s nominee is

selected either at, or near the time of, the

convention - through a tremendous amount of

“political horse-trading”

• The last national party nominating

convention that opened w/ the

identity of the nominee in question

was in 1976

• That year, Republican delegates

eventually selected Gerald Ford over

Ronald Reagan.

• For Democrats, the last time

delegates faced a contested

nomination during the convention

was 1960.

• That year, John F. Kennedy faced

opposition from Lyndon Johnson

and Adlai Stevenson.

• The 1968 Democratic National Convention is

known for being very chaotic

• There was turmoil inside the convention hall

among the delegates

• Violent protests occurred outside in the streets

of Chicago

• Among the chaos, delegates nominated Vice

President Hubert Humphrey.

Presidential Nominating Conventions

• A presidential nominating convention is

a political convention held every four

years by the Democrats and

Republicans.

• Some third parties also select their

presidential nominees by convention.

• The main purpose of a national

nominating convention is to officially

nominate the party’s candidate for

President

• In the contemporary era,

conventions have become highly

scripted, mostly ceremonial

affairs…

• Since the 1970s, voting by delegates at the

national party conventions has, for the most

part, been perfunctory

• The selection of the major parties' nominees

have basically been pre-determined

• In the contemporary era, a single ballot to

officially nominate a Presidential candidate

has been sufficient.

• During the convention, each state

delegation announces its vote

tallies and delegate allocation

• This is accompanied with some

“boosterism” of their state or

territory.

• Each political party sets its own rules for the format of

the national convention.

• Each U.S. state and territory is apportioned a certain

number of voting representatives to the convention

• Individually, these voting representatives are known as

“delegates”

• Collectively, they are referred to as “the state’s

delegation to the national convention”.

Each party uses its own formula for determining the size

of each state’s delegation to the convention

The following factors are considered:

- Population of the state

- Proportion of the state's Congressional delegation

- State government officials who are members of the

party

- The state's voting patterns in previous presidential

elections.

• The selection of individual

delegates, and their alternates, is

also governed by the bylaws of

each state’s political party, or

even state law.

• The Democrats use a proportional (as

opposed to a “winner-take-all”) delegate

allocation system

• Any Democratic candidate receiving at

least 15% of the vote in a state primary

or caucus is entitled to a proportional

number of delegates from that state.

Types of Delegates:

• In 2008, 80% of the 4,119 delegates arrived at

the Democratic National Convention having

already been “pledged” to a specific candidate

during the primaries and caucuses

• They are referred to as “Pledged Delegates”

• Democrats also make use of controversial

“Super-Delegates”.

Distribution of Democratic Delegates (2008):

Barack Obama

Pledged: 1763

Super Delegates: 438

Total: 2,201

Hillary Clinton

Pledged: 1640

Super Delegates: 256

Total: 1,896

Delegates Needed to Win = 2,118

What is a Super Delegate?

• The Democratic Party has more than 800 Super

Delegates

• They include elected officials, party officials, former

Presidents and Vice Presidents and college students.

• The GOP also include a number of “Super Delegates”

to the Convention.

• Super-Delegates are not obliged to commit to any

particular candidate

Why Super-Delegates?

• After Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory

over President Carter in 1980, the

Democratic Party “establishment”

wanted more control in selecting their

party’s nominee.

• As a result, they established the

“Super-Delegate” system.

Power of the Super-Delegate:

• Unlike “pledged” delegates, who are selected by voters

in state primaries and caucuses…

• *** Super-Delegates are entitled to vote for the

nominee of their choosing

• Super-Delegates are "uncommitted, unbound in any

fashion to any candidate”

• They can simply “throw their support” to whichever

candidate they want at the convention.

How the Republican Party Selects Delegates

• An estimated 2,663 delegates attended the

Republican National Convention in Tampa in

August 2012.

• Most had already “pledged” their support to the

candidate who won their state (in a primary or

caucus).

• In order to win the nomination, a candidate

needed to win the votes of at least 1,144

delegates at the convention.

• Again, at the start of the convention,

Governor Romney was his party’s

presumptive nominee.

• Click here for more information

about the Republican Party’s

delegate count – including state-by-

state totals

January The first caucus for selecting delegates to

each party’s national nominating convention.

January The first presidential primary is conducted for

selecting delegates for each party’s

national nominating convention.

Through

June

The remaining delegates are selected in each

state through either a primary or caucus.

August and

September

The Democrats and Republicans each hold a

national convention to officially nominate their

respective presidential candidate for the

General Election.

Recap: The Presidential Candidate Nominating Process…

The General Election:

• After receiving the nomination of their

respective party, the Presidential

candidate must begin a new campaign

• During the General Election, Presidential

candidates focus on gaining a majority

of Electoral College votes.

Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 (U.S. Constitution):

• Each State shall appoint, in such manner as the

Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of

Electors, equal to the whole Number of

Senators and Representatives to which the

State may be entitled in the Congress…

• …But no Senator or Representative, or Person

holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the

United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

Article II, Section 1, Clause 3:

• Replaced by Amendment XII (1804) to the

Constitution, which reads…

• The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and

vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of

whom… shall not be an inhabitant of the same state...

• The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of

the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the

certificates and the votes shall then be counted

Why the Founders Created the Electoral College:

• A compromise between the election of the President by

Congress, or the state legislatures, or by direct popular

vote of the people

• Fear of “mob rule” (“tyranny of the majority”)

• Fear of a tyrant, of tyrannical rule

• Concern about the “rationality” of voters

Why the Founders created the Electoral College

• Concern that citizens lacked “informational capacity” -

they lacked access to information about national

candidates and issues

• The inability of the national government to conduct

elections

• Fear among the smaller states that a “stream” of

Presidents would come from then-dominant Virginia and

Massachusetts

• Slavery: More power and influence to Southern states

(per the “3/5 Compromise”)

Electoral College:

• A “slate of electors” are selected by the voters in each

state and the District of Columbia.

• These “electors” officially elect the President and Vice

President.

• The number of electors in each state is equal to the

number of each state’s representatives in the U.S.

House and Senate.

• Amendment XXIII to the Constitution (1961) grants D.C.

as many electors (3) as the state with the smallest

population.

There are a total of 538 electors

• 435 based on the number of U.S. Representatives

• 100 based on the number of U.S. Senators

• 3 from the District of Columbia.

For a candidate to be elected President, he or she

must win a minimum of 270 electoral votes.

2012 Electoral College Map

Who Are the Electors?:

- The process for selecting a “slate of electors” varies

state-by-state throughout the nation.

- Generally, the political parties in each state nominate

electors at their state party conventions, or by a vote of

the party's central committee.

- Electors are often selected to recognize their service

and dedication to their party – they are party

“heavyweights”.

- They may be state-elected officials, party leaders, or

persons who have a personal or political affiliation with

the Presidential candidate.

Selection of Candidates and Electors:

• From George Washington to John Quincy

Adams, presidential candidates were selected

by “King Caucuses” (which included U.S.

Senators and Representatives).

• In 1796 – the nation’s first contested

Presidential election – neither popular voting,

nor statewide winner-take-all was the norm.

• The Constitution gives the power to the

individual state legislatures to decide how

electors are selected

• In some states, state legislatures

appointed/selected the electors to the Electoral

College – w/ half the states continuing to do so

in 1812

• In other states, the people voted directly, in

electoral districts

A “Popular” Movement:

• In 1824, state legislatures in just 25% (6 of 24) of the

states selected the electors who voted in the Electoral

College

• As a result, a popular vote method was used in the

majority of states).

• By 1828, only Delaware and South Carolina continued

to use this “legislative choice” method

• Andrew Jackson broke the power of the congressional

“King Caucus” to name presidential candidates

• 1824 was the last year in which the “King

Caucus” system was used to select the

Presidential candidates.

• The election of 1824 was the first in which a

nationwide popular vote count could be

tabulated (although it did not include six states)

• In 1831, the Antimasons became the first

political party to hold a national nominating

convention

First Tuesday in November:

Presidential General Election

• Presidential elections are NOT nationwide direct popular

vote elections

• When voters cast a ballot, they are actually voting for a “slate

of electors” (associated with one of the Presidential candidates).

• Presidential elections are state-by-state battles over a slate of

electors in each individual state

• Presidential elections are a battle over Electoral College votes,

with a minimum of 270 Electoral Votes required to be elected

President.

Allocating Electoral College Votes:

- 48 of the 50 states, and the District of Columbia, use a "winner-

take-all” method of allocating Electoral College votes.

- Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska (which use a proportional

system)

- Under the “Unit Rule”, the winner of the state’s popular vote (even

if just a plurality) gets all of that state’s Electoral votes

- Presidential candidates have virtually no incentive to campaign

in states where they are certain either to win or to lose

- These “spectator states” include California, Illinois, New York and

Texas.

General Election Day:

• The Constitution (Article II, Section 1, Clause 4) gives Congress

the power to determine the date for selecting electors (i.e., the

date of the General Election) and the day on which the Electoral

College will meet to give their Votes

• The election of 1948 witnessed the first modern presidential

election…

• For the first time, every state selected their electors on the very

same day. And, all but South Carolina did so by popular vote.

• A uniform single day had been mandated by an act of Congress

following the election of 1844 – resulting from fraud in Louisiana.

General Election: Why Tuesday?:

• The U.S. has a long-standing tradition of electing Presidents on

the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four

years.

• Congress specified Tuesday so that rural voters could journey to

the county seat on Monday, not forcing sabbatarians to travel on

Sundays.

• November 1 was ruled-out, because Catholics went to mass on All

Saints’ Day

• Some states have provisions that allow for “early voting”

• The “Weekend Voting Act” has been introduced in Congress

Meeting of Electoral College:

• Meetings of Electors and Transmission of

Certificates of Vote to the National Archives and

Records Administration

• Takes place on the first Monday after the second

Wednesday in December – as prescribed by Congress

in federal law.

• On this day, electors throughout the nation meet in

their state capitols to select the President and Vice

President of the United States.

•

Faithless Electors:

• There is no Constitutional provision

or Federal law that requires electors to

vote in accordance with the popular vote

in their States

• They are referred to as “Faithless

Electors”

"Faithless Electors“

• In Ray v. Blair, the Supreme Court ruled to allow states to

empower political parties to require formal pledges from Electors

• 26 states (as of November 2012) have created laws to enforce an

elector's pledge to his or her party vote or the popular vote of

his/her state.

• Some states assess a misdemeanor charge and a fine to such

actions.

• The state of North Carolina charges a fine of $10,000 to faithless

electors.

• Many scholars believe that state-level laws hold no true bearing

and would not survive a constitutional challenge.

Counting of Electoral Votes:

- The U.S. House and Senate meet in a joint

session to inspect the “Certificates of

Ascertainment” and count the Electoral College

votes

- Congress has the statutory power to change

the date.

- The President of the Senate is the presiding

officer

• Again, to be elected President and Vice

President, a candidate must garner at

least 270 Electoral College votes

• The nationwide popular vote is absolutely

meaningless !!

- In the absence of a majority, the House

selects the President, the Senate selects

the Vice President (per Amendment XII)

January 20 @ Noon: Inauguration Day:

Per Amendment XX, the President-elect takes the

Oath of Office and officially becomes President of the United States.

Article II, Section 1: Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall

take the following Oath or Affirmation: I do solemnly sear (or affirm) that I will

faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the

best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the

United States.”

The “Lame-Duck” Amendment:

- Until 1933, newly elected Presidents and members of

Congress did not take office until March 4

- During The Great Depression, as the economy

worsened, President Hoover

and “Lame Duck” members

of Congress held power for

four months after the election

(while President-elect FDR

“waited in the wings”)

- As a result, Amendment XX

(the “Lame-Duck Amendment”) was

ratified in 1933…

- Inauguration Day for the President

and Vice President was changed

to January 20

- The meeting date for the new Congress

is January 3

Noteworthy Presidential Elections:

• 1800: Thomas Jefferson elected by the U.S. House of

Representatives (Electoral College tie; no Electoral College

majority)

• 1824: John Quincy Adams elected by the House of

Representatives (no Electoral College majority)

• 1876: Rutherford Hayes elected by Electoral College majority

after losing the nationwide popular vote

• 1888: Benjamin Harrison elected by Electoral College majority

after losing the nationwide popular vote

• 2000: George W. Bush elected by Electoral College majority

after losing the nationwide popular vote

1796 and 1800 Elections:

• In 1800, Vice President Thomas Jefferson

unseated incumbent President John Adams.

• The election exposed a “flaw” in the original

Constitution,

leading to the

ratification of

Amendment XII…

Amendment XII (1804):

• …(The Electors) shall name in their ballots the

person voted for as President, and in distinct

ballots the person voted for as Vice-

President…

• The amendment stipulates that electors must

make a separate and distinct choice between

their selections for President and Vice

President…

A “Flaw” in the Original System:

• At the beginning of the American Republic, the

candidate that had the most Electoral College votes

would become the President (assuming he had a

majority).

• The candidate with the second highest number of

votes would become Vice President

• There was no accounting for the impact of political

parties or factions in the original Constitution.

• As a result of the Presidential Election

of 1796, the nation had a President of

one Party (John Adams, a Federalist)

and a Vice President of another

(Thomas Jefferson, a Democratic-

Republican).

Election of 1800…

• Vice President Thomas Jefferson and his

running-mate Aaron Burr were tied in Electoral

College votes (both were from the same party).

• On Feb. 17, 1801 - on the 36th ballot - the

deadlocked House of Representatives

decided the election in Jefferson’s favor.

• The elections of 1796 and 1800 lead to the

ratification of Amendment XII (1804).

Election of 1824:

• In 1824, no candidate received a majority of Electoral College

votes

• Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more

Electoral College votes than any other candidate (there were five

candidates total).

• The House of Representatives decided the election in favor of

John Quincy Adams

• In 1828, during one of the dirtiest campaigns

in American history, the populist Jackson

defeated Adams.

No Electoral College Majority?

• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College

votes – at least 270 - the House of Representatives will

choose the President from among the three candidates

with the most Electoral votes.

• Each state delegation – no matter the population of the

state - will receive ONE VOTE.

• If a Vice-Presidential candidate fails to receive a

majority, the U.S. Senate would decide the winner.

• The process is discussed in Amendment XII

In 1876, Rutherford Hayes won the Electoral College

by a single vote (even though Tilden had won a

majority of the nationwide popular vote).

• In 1888, Grover Cleveland received over 100,000

more popular votes than Benjamin Harrison.

However, Harrison received the majority of votes cast

in the Electoral College.

• In 2000, George W. Bush

lost the nationwide popular

vote by some 500,000 votes,

but still garnered a majority of

the electoral vote (271 to 266)

Arguments Against the Electoral College:

• Irrelevancy of the national popular vote

• Discourages or suppresses turnout in

“spectator” states (disenfranchising voters)

• Disadvantage for third parties

• The focus on independent voters in (large)

“swing” states

Arguments in Support of the Electoral College:

• Prevents an “urban-centric” campaign strategy

• Maintains and protects American federalism

• Encourages stability through a two-party system

• State-by-state recounts (instead of national recounts)

• Gives the new President a more convincing margin of

victory, and a clear governing mandate

Since at least 270 Electoral College votes are required to be elected President – and the nationwide

popular vote is meaningless - Presidential elections are typically decided by “independent voters” in a

limited number of “swing-states”. The media ad blitz discussed below is mainly concentrated in 15 “key”

media markets in nine “swing states”.

"I never attach a must-win to any state… But

anyone who analyzes this would have to say

Florida is in the upper echelon of states and

we're going to spend a great deal of time there,

and a great deal of energy there. It is a very,

very significant state.“

- David Axelrod

President Obama's Chief Political Strategist

Changing the System

• To change how the President and Vice President are

elected, an amendment to the Constitution would

need to be proposed and ratified.

• Following the 1968 Election, Congress came close to

proposing such an amendment – referred to as the

Bayh-Celler Amendment

• Another proposal - the National Popular Vote

Interstate Compact - would replace the current system

of presidential elections with a direct, nationwide

popular vote.

2012 Presidential Election Results

Barack Obama (D)

332 Electoral Votes 61.7 million Popular Votes (50.6%)

Mitt Romney (R)

206 Electoral Votes 58.5 million Popular Votes (47.9%)

Notice how population – and Electoral College votes – have shifted from

states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and Michigan to the “Sun-

Belt” states of California, Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia