RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue046.pdf · Rs.3 lakh crore out of the total projected tax revenue of Rs.16.5 lakh crore for FY19-20 vs.

ISSUE: 046

20TH JULY, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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Unreasonable taxes are not economy friendlyDespite a number of objections, it went unsettled that the Budget tried to increase the tax collection from surcharge and cess. Contradictorily, this move came in the wake of government releasing out the direct taxes code anytime soon. The amount estimated to be raised through surcharge and health and education cess on the direct taxes side and through levies on petrol and diesel amount to over Rs.3 lakh crore out of the total projected tax revenue of Rs.16.5 lakh crore for FY19-20 vs. Rs.2.8 lakh crore out of Rs.14.8 lakh crore in 2018-19. Since the actual tax revenues as per the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) in FY18-19 were considerably lower, it would easily appear that the current revenue estimates of Rs.16.5 lakh crore for the current year are based on surcharge and cess realisations, besides large scale disinvestment. However, it is difficult to conclude that cess for specific ends such as health, education and infrastructure is essential for improved outcomes. Levying surcharge and cess has increasingly become a means to deny states of their reasonable share in the central revenues perhaps more so after the 14th Finance Commission increased the share of the states in central taxes from 32% to 42%. It may project a dent to the idea of coordinative federalism that the transfers from the IGST kitty have not proceeded as expected which may cause disagreements at the GST Council in regards to the GST compensation mechanism..

Need tax communism for a thriving capitalism

On the other hand, it is difficult to understand the targeting of higher-income groups as the best way to increase revenues, going against the capitalistic liberal wisdom of keeping tax rates reasonable ruling out any exemptions. Also, whether it is a good idea to exempt incomes below Rs. 5 lakh from paying tax which amounts to narrowing the tax base while there have been efforts on the indirect taxes to do quite the opposite. With a sincere attempt to increase consumption, it must be realised that tax-paying as well is also being a part of public service. While the government needs to increase its tax revenues to meet its various expenditures, the way to go is to keep the rates reasonable, reduce the exemptions and deliver on governance so that the pessimism and insecurities of the taxpayers are addressed.

Direct taxes code

In the upcoming direct taxes code, one should expect streamlined tax rates leaving little room to the whims of the contemporary governments. It would be good to the capitalistic economy as well if the tax buoyancy of just one has been the norm. This may be addressed once the distance between the state and the citizen lowers but not by the taxman preying over businesses and individuals.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Osho Krishan

Amit Samar

M V Narasinga Rao

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

Kiran Shankar Prasad

Konpal Pali

Mahesh Keshavrav Bendre

Sayali Shrikant Gadkari

Vivek Lohumi

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Rahul Chander

Ravi Pandey

Ravikanth P

Kushal Asthana

Arpit Chandna

Vinod J

Karvy Head Office

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- VIVEK RANJAN MISRAHead-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy:

• India’s proposed infrastructure finance entity – Credit Guarantee Enhancement Corporation (CGEC) – is expected to free up lending of up to Rs 3.5 lakh crore by banks to the sector.

• India’s current account (CA) balance deficit grew to $68 Bn in 2018-19 from $49 Bn the previous year according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which said the deficit was justified by development needs.

• “India is expected to grow by 7% in 2019 and 7.2% in 2020, slightly slower than projected in April because the fiscal 2018 outturn fell short,” the Manila-based multilateral institution said on Thursday in its supplement to the Asian Development Outlook 2019.

Agriculture:

• India, the world’s largest rice exporter could see a decline in exports this year due to rise in minimum support price (MSP) of paddy and scanty rains in the current kharif season. Rice processing and exporters anticipate a drop from exports pegged at Rs. 55,000 crore per year.

Banking:

• The Mumbai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has allowed the petition of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) to implead 22 more parties as accused in the alleged financial misappropriation in the debt-laden Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS).

• The Beijing-headquartered multilateral developmental lender Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said it will provide USD 100 Mn in loans to L&T Infrastructure Finance Company for on-lending to wind and solar power infrastructure projects in the country.

Auto:

• The Indian tyre industry may log 7-9% growth over the next five years backed by favorable outlook for the domestic automotive industry according to rating agency ICRA.

Power:

• Data compiled by India Ratings & Research suggests that in June 2019, power demand grew 7.4% YoY while supply increased 7.5% YoY resulting in lower deficit of 0.4%.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• G7 finance ministers meeting in France on Thursday agreed a plan for taxing digital giants that will set a minimum level of taxation for them while allowing companies to do business in countries where they have no physical presence.

• A key gauge of China’s debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 38337.01 37618 37977 38991 39644 Down

NIFTY 11419.25 11201 11310 11618 11816 Down

NIFTYBANK 29770.35 28998 29384 30478 31186 Down

YESBANK 83.25 61 72 101 120 Down

INFY 785.40 735 760 805 824 Up

IBULHSGFIN 634.95 578 606 671 707 Down

RELIANCE 1249.00 1209 1229 1283 1317 Down

SBIN 356.00 343 350 368 380 Down

INDUSINDBK 1422.15 1330 1376 1499 1576 Down

HDFC 2303.55 2137 2221 2363 2422 Up

BAJFINANCE 3323.10 3112 3217 3474 3626 Down

HDFCBANK 2375.65 2329 2352 2414 2453 Down

AXISBANK 729.25 697 713 755 782 Down

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT

EX-DATE/

RESULT DATE

HDFC Bank Ltd Result Update 20 JULY 2019

TVS Motor Company Ltd Result Update 22 July 2019

BATA India Ltd Dividend- Rs.6.25 22 July 2019

Apollo Tyre Final Dividend- Rs.3.25 23 July 2019

Eicher Motors Dividend- Rs. 125.00 24 July 2019

Varun Beverages Ltd Bonus Issue 1:2 25 July 2019

Zensar Technologies Final Dividend- Rs.1.8 25 July 2019

KSTREET - 20TH JULY 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

Nifty

Sensex

BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty N

ext 50

Nifty M

idcap 100

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

Auto

Bank

Services

FMC

G

Pharma

IT Metal

Energy

Consum

ption

Realty

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

Nasdaq

Dow

Jones

S&P 50

0

Nikkei

Hang Sang

Sanghai Com

p

FTSE 100

CA

C 40

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

GU

JARA

T STATE

PETRON

ET LTD

IND

RAPRA

STHA

GA

S LTD

AJA

NTA

PHA

RMA

LTD

APO

LLO H

OSPITA

LS EN

TERPRISE

DIV

I'S LABO

RATO

RIES LTD

FUTU

RE CO

NSU

MER LTD

FUTU

RE RETAIL LTD

EDELW

EISS FINA

NC

IAL

SERVIC

ES

HEG

LTD

DEW

AN

HO

USIN

G

FINA

NC

E CO

RP

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

INFO

SYS LTD

HIN

DU

STAN

PETROLEU

M

CO

RP

SUN

PHA

RMA

CEU

TICA

L IN

DU

S

WIPRO

LTD

UPL LTD

GA

IL IND

IA LTD

EICH

ER MO

TORS LTD

HERO

MO

TOC

ORP LTD

MA

HIN

DRA

& M

AH

IND

RA

LTD

YES BAN

K LTD

-1000.00

-800.00

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

12-07-19 15-07-19 16-07-19 17-07-19 18-07-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Tata Steel Ltd CMP Rs.459Target Price Rs.618Upside 34.6%

Investment Rationale• Tata Steel has experienced 27% growth in its consolidated sales during

FY19 on the back of 7% volume growth and 20% realization growth. Increase in demand for steel by end users has given rise in volume growth.

• TSL is the most integrated steel producing company having presence across entire value chain including producing and distributing as well as processing of iron ore and coal.

• De-risking of European and South-Asian business by way of asset sales and divesting stake.

• Acquisitions of Bhushan Steel and Usha Martin Limited provides great business synergies.

• Ramping up of Kalinganagar plant capacity from current 3 MTPA to 8 MTPA. The plant produces higher automotive grade and poised to produce high strength steel grades.

• The management has committed to reduction in debt by $1 Bn by FY20E and focusing more on growing domestic market.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 648/441

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 525.5/7.6

EPS (Rs.) 89.2

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 8.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2%

Stock Exchange BSE, NSE

P/E CHARTValuation

We continue to maintain positive outlook on company despite recent weakness in steel price amidst surge in raw material prices. The company has raw materials security and has exposure in value added business. We value the stock on EV/EBITDA 6x of FY21E EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs. 618 with potential upside of 34.6%. However, key risks to valuation include sharp decline in steel prices and spillover effect of on-going global trade war.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E

REVENUE 1576690 1608224 1624306

EBITDA 293833 290784 296383

EBITDA(%) 18.6 18.1 18.2

PAT 102183 87074 77939

EPS (Rs.) 89.2 76.1 68.1

ROE (%) 15.7 12.0 9.8

33.1%

13.8% 30.4%

22.7% Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Jul-

17

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

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-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

TSL Stock Price Sensex

46%

19%

4%

31% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

29,500

31,500

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

41,500

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

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19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

Sensex (LHS) Bharat Forge (RHS)

33.1%

13.8% 30.4%

22.7% Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Jul-

17

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-17

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Mar

-18

May

-18

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18

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18

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-18

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19

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-19

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46%

19%

4%

31% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

29,500

31,500

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

41,500

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

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BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bharat Forge Limited CMP Rs.438Target Price Rs.527Upside 20.2%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 694/430.2

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 205/2988

EPS (Rs.) 23.0

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 15.3

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6

Stock Exchange BSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 65200 67315 73504

EBITDA 19061 20115 22038

EBITDA(%) 29.2 29.9 30.0

PAT 10713 12145 13324

EPS(Rs.) 23.0 26.1 28.6

RoE (%) 21.4 20.5 19.0

PE (x) 19.0 16.8 15.3

Investment Rationale• During Q4FY19, BFL sales grew by 13.8% YoY to Rs. 16.7 Bn driven by 3.6%

volume decline and an 18.1% increase in average realizations. EBITDA margins expanded by 252 bps YoY to 31% on account of lower staff cost and other expenses. PAT increased by 28.2% YoY to Rs. 3 Bn.

• During FY19, BFL’s domestic business grew by 17.9%. This growth was supported primarily by industrial segment with sales of Rs. 10.9 Bn which grew by 27.9% followed by Passenger vehicle business which grew by 16.2% to Rs. 2.4 Bn. We believe, over the next 12 months, BFL’s domestic automobile business is expected to witness robust demand for MHCV segment on account of BS-VI emission norm changes to be effective from 1st April 2020, resulting in pre buying. Also its industrial business is expected to sustain growth on account of the overall pickup in the infrastructure activity in the country.

• During FY19, BFL’s international business grew by 25.4% to Rs. 37.3 Bn. This growth was primarily supported by overseas PV and North American Class 8 orders. We understand, over the next 6-9 months US Class 8 market and European truck market is expected to remain soft on account of lower freight demand and slackening industry business outlook. However, North American oil and gas industry is likely to remain stable on the back of increased oil production and shale gas industry supporting BFL’s industrial business.

• During FY19, BFL secured new domestic and export orders worth $50 Mn from the Commercial Vehicle and Industrial sector. These orders are expected to be delivered in FY21. The ramp up of these orders is expected from H2FY20.

Valuation

At CMP of Rs. 438, BFL stock is quoting at PE of 15.3xFY21E earnings. We retain our BUY rating on the stock with a price target of Rs. 527 (PER of 18xFY21E – 30% discount to its 7 year avg 12M forward PER).

33.1%

13.8% 30.4%

22.7% Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Jul-

17

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

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Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

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46%

19%

4%

31% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

29,500

31,500

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

41,500

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19


33.1%

13.8% 30.4%

22.7% Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Jul-

17

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

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18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

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46%

19%

4%

31% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

29,500

31,500

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

41,500

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19



EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Hatsun Agro Products

Hatsun often called Hatsun Agro Products (HAP) is the largest private sector dairy company in India based in Chennai. It was founded by R. G. Chandramogan in 1970. It had become a billion dollar company by mid-2016. The Company was also awarded “The Fastest Growing Asian Dairy Company”. The Dairy product maker has been bagging the Golden Trophy from the Indian government for the largest dairy products exporter for the last many years. HAP manufactures and markets products that cater to both cooking and consumption like milk, curd, ice creams, dairy whitener, skimmed milk powder, ghee, paneer and lots more. Their brands have become household names in over one million Indian houses. Arun Icecreams, Arokya Milk, Hatsun Curd, Hatsun Paneer, Hatsun Ghee, Hatsun Dairy Whitener, Ibaco have become popular choices across the country. 96.23% of their sales come from retail consumers. They also have a healthy global presence with dairy ingredients exported to 38 countries around the world - primarily America, the Middle East and South Asian markets. Technically, Hatsun has rallied from 315.9 to 971.5 on weekly chart and has corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the said rally i.e. around 565 and bounced back from there to close above 38.20% Fibonacci retracement levels indicating end of the correction and a possible fresh leg of rally from these levels. Adding to it, Heiken candlesticks and parabolic SAR is signalling positive trend on the weekly charts reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9 period averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 730-740 levels for the potential upside targets of 915-950 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 600 levels.

Sanofi India Limited

Sanofi India Limited, headquartered in Mumbai is a part of Sanofi group. Sanofi SA and its wholly owned subsidiary Hoechst AG are the major shareholders of Sanofi India Limited. Its manufacturing portfolio contains medicines for several therapeutic areas including cardiovascular, thrombotic, metabolic disorders, oncology, disorders of the central nervous system, internal medicine. Its primary business is medicines in the dosage forms of liquid injectables, tablets, capsules, ointments, drops and syrup. Sanofi India Limited was incorporated in May 1956 under the name Hoechst Fedco Pharma Private Limited. The Company is virtually debt free and it has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 50.76%. Technically, the stock has rallied from 3818.50 to 6710.5 on monthly chart and has corrected to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the said rally i.e. around 5264 and bounced back from there to close near 23.60% Fibonacci retracement levels indicating end of the correction and a possible fresh leg of rally from these levels. The Heiken candlesticks and parabolic SAR is signalling a positive trend on the weekly charts reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9 period averages on weekly chart indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. Another momentum indicator Bollinger bands suggest positive momentum as the price has tested the upper band in Bollinger bands and the bands are expanding. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 5950-6000 levels for the potential upside targets of 7125-7500 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 5250 levels.

STOCK BIOCON

CMP 745.65

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 730-740

AVERAGE 640

STOP LOSS 600

TARGET 1 915

TARGET 2 950

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS

STOCK SANOFI

CMP 6022.3

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 5950-6000

AVERAGE 5350

STOP LOSS 5250

TARGET 1 7125

TARGET 2 7500

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 166

Stop Loss 174

Target 155

Lot Size 3000

Margin 86368

21-DEMA 167

Open Interest Shares 63615000

Change in OI 5064000

Cost of Carry (%) 18.86

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY AUTO (7,192.75) has underperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis as it ended the week on a negative note with massive loss of over 5.50%. The index has witnessed a huge dip in the last two trading sessions of the last week and has added a lot of short positions in the overall counters among the index. The fall was seen majorly because of the heavyweights which witnessed a sharp fall in the past week. The major losers from the index have witnessed a fall of even 8%-10%. All the stocks among the sector settled in red with losses ranging from 3%-10% week on week basis. Technically, the index has witnessed huge fall for the third consecutive week which was backed up by robust volumes as majority of the counters have plunged from their crucial support zone. The next support for the counter is pegged around 6850-6900 level s which is the monthly swing low breaching which the index may trigger fresh short positions for the coming future. On the contrary, resistance is pegged around 7500-7600 levels followed by 7800 zone which is a crucial resistance level for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed fall from the mean of the Bollinger (20, 2) and is currently placed below the lower band, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 26-35 levels and has given a negative crossover on daily chart suggesting potential downside in the counter in near future. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter and not to carry heavy leveraged positions and it is better to always hedge the position.

NIFTY FMCG (29,027.55) has ended the week with a negative return of around half a percent, outperforming the benchmark index Nifty which closed with losses of around 1%. Technically, NIFTY FMCG closed below all its major moving averages on the daily chart for the second straight week, which indicates inherent weakness. The index has given the lowest closing in as many as 9 months indicating weakness in the index in the near term. The index is placed below its parabolic SAR on the daily as well as a weekly chart which indicates the selling pressure in the index is likely to continue in the near term. The stocks which have outperformed NIFTY FMCG during the week were DABUR, EMAMILTD, COLPAL, HINDUNILVR JUBLFOOD while TATAGLOBAL, PGHH, ITC, BRITANNIA underperformed the index. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is placed below its 9-period signal line on the daily as well as weekly chart and poised with a bearish bias, reflecting the index may face selling pressure in the coming trading sessions. Going ahead, the index is expected to trade with flat to negative bias. The support for NIFTY FMCG is pegged around 28900 levels followed by 28400 levels. While on the higher side, the index may face resistance around 29500 levels followed by 29700 levels.

NIFTY BANK (29,770.35) has underperformed Nifty with a loss of 2.72% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty lost by 1.15%. During the last week, the index moved with a downward bias breaking the crucial support at 30220 levels simultaneously closing below the crucial 50 days EMA. Technically, the current downside refers to a bearish M pattern breakout which may forecast the BankNifty towards 28780 levels in the short term. For the week ahead, the index may trade with a bearish bias until and unless 30220 levels are taken off from downside. On the earnings front, RBL Bank tanked after releasing June quarter results for the financial year 2019-20. The bank reported a healthy set of numbers for the period under review but said it expects to face some challenges on some of its exposures in the near term. Reacting to it, investor sentiment took a hit, thus dragging the stock further lower during the week. Bandhan Bank reported a 45.55% year-on-year rise in net profit at Rs. 701.14 crore for the quarter ended 30 June on the back of higher net interest income and other income. It had posted a net profit of Rs. 481.71 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Net interest income (Nll) for the quarter increased 35.98% to Rs. 1,410.38 crore against Rs. 1,037.17 crore in the same quarter last year. On the stock front, only KOTAKBANK closed in green with gains of 1.55% during the week while RBLBANK, YESBANK, IDFCFIRSTB and BANKBARODA lost by 21.98%, 12.10%, 6.61% and 6.27%. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 30500 levels followed by 31000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 29500 levels followed by 29000 levels.

NIFTY IT (15,383.65) has traded on a sideways to positive note, settled with gains of nearly 1.1% on weekly closing basis. On the stock front, IT bellwether INFY spooked the rally and managed to float on a positive note throughout the week, settled with weekly gains of 8% while other stocks like WIPRO 2.65%, OFSS 1.55%, TECHM 1.52%, TCS 0.55% & NIITTECH 0.05% managed to close on a positive note. HCLTECH -0.87%, INFIBEAM -2.58%, MINDTREE -10.8% & TATAELXSI -17.6% have underperformed on a weekly closing basis. NIFTY IT index after opening gap up on Monday due to better than expected INFY results and subsequently turned sideways. Technically, index moved above its major 200-DEMA which is currently placed near 15357 levels, and hovering marginally above it while finding resistance to move and sustain above its 21-DEMA placed near 15664 levels. On the momentum oscillator front, 14-pd weekly RSI found support near 40-levels, and turning sideways indicating the possibility of further consolidation in the index in the sessions to come. On the downside, index has immediate support near 15300 levels followed by 15000 levels while on the higher side, 15600 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 15700 levels. Going forward, index on sustaining above 15300 levels is likely to trade with a mixed bias between 15300-15700 levels; breakout on either side will trigger further momentum of 150-200 points on either side.

INDRAPRASTHA GAS LIMITED: BUY IGL (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 318.30 SECTOR: ENERGY

IGL ended the week with a gain of more than 4% significantly outperforming the NIFTY ENERGY index which posted losses of around 1.36%. The stock is in a secular uptrend and is placed above all its major moving averages in all time frames (daily, weekly as well as monthly charts) indicating positive setup in the counter. The stock declined from its yearly highs around 358 levels and placed a swing low at its crucial 200 day exponential moving average placed around 298 levels. Thereafter, the stock has given a bullish crossover to its short to medium term moving averages in the past few trading sessions and is sustaining above the said moving averages, which indicates strong buying interest in the counter. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is placed above its 9 period signal line on the daily chart which indicates strength in the near term. The stock price is above the parabolic SAR on the daily chart which reaffirms our positive view in this counter. Hence, we suggest Smart Traders to buy the stock around 314 levels for the target of 330 levels with a stop loss placed below 304 levels.

Sentiment

Initiation 314

Stop Loss 304

Target 330

Lot Size 2750

Margin 156359

21-DEMA 315

Open Interest Shares 4774000

Change in OI 924000

Cost of Carry (%) -55.59

VEDANTA LTD: SELL VEDL (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 162.65 SECTOR: METALS

VEDL declined by around 3.82% for the week underperforming NIFTY METAL which ended lower by around 2.99%. The stock is currently placed below all its major moving averages on the daily as well as weekly charts indicating inherent weakness in the counter. Technically, the 50 DEMA is acting as a major supply zone for the counter. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is placed below the 9 period RSI on the daily as well as weekly chart which suggests the stock is likely to trade with a negative bias in the near term. The stock is consistently trading below its parabolic SAR on the daily chart which suggests the ongoing downtrend in the counter. The stock is also placed below the mean of the Bollinger band (20.2) on the daily as well as weekly chart which reaffirms the negative view in this counter. Hence, we suggest Smart Traders to short this counter at 166 levels for the target of 155 levels with a stop loss placed above 174 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11419.25): Nifty managed to end the action packed and violent week on a negative note with a cut of around 1.00% to shut shop at 11419 levels. During the first half of the week, Nifty managed to climb and hold on to the most of the gains, but on the weekly expiry day, after the confirmatory statement from Finance Minister in Parliament regarding surcharge on FPI Trusts created crater for bulls, selling pressure got aggravated on Friday to make the index lose around 300 points in two days. Lacklustre numbers from companies have also dampened sentiments. Going forward, as results season is picking up its momentum next week, market participants shall look for the ongoing Q1 results announcements and stock specific activity will pick up. Index majors Reliance and HDFC Bank have announced their numbers yesterday and today, which will have impact on Monday. In the coming week, major stocks like KOTAKBANK, LT, BAJAJ FINANCE, ASIAN PAINT, HINDUNILVR, TATAMOTORS, ZEEL, BIOCON, M&MFIN, NIITTECH, HDFC LIFE, CANBK, BAJAJ FINSERV, TVS MOTORS, MCDOWELL-N, BANK BARODA, JUBLFOOD, SRTRANSFIN will announce their report cards. July series derivatives expiry is also lined up in the current week. In the first week of August, RBI is scheduled to announce its first monetary policy after the Union Budget 2019 which will also be very crucial for setting the medium term trend. On the global front, markets are likely to take cues from monetary policies of Japan and ECB and developments on trade war will also play a key role on the global asset class movements. Technically, Nifty has breakdown from a rising channel and the range expansion over last three days confirms the fresh down move in the index. However, the index has managed to close near a very crucial gap up of EXIT Polls, indicating crucial trading week is ahead. Based on derivative activity, Nifty has highest put writing at 11300 and highest call writing at 11600 that implies possible range for near term can be 11300 to 11600. For now, immediate supports may be assumed at 11350-11400 levels followed by 11250 zone while on the higher side, 11650-11700 may act as a supply zone followed by 11950-12000 zone.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE: BEAR PUT SPREAD IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 25 JULY 11400 PE @ 58

SECOND LEG Sell one lot of NIFTY 25 JULY 11300 PE @ 29

BEP 11371.00

MAX PROFIT 5,325.00

MAX LOSS 2,175.00

RATIONALE The index is expected to drift lower hence a bearish strategy is recommended.

TYPE: BEAR PUT SPREAD IN BANKNIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANKNIFTY 25 JULY 29700 PE @ 184

SECOND LEG Sell one lot of BANKNIFTY 25 JULY 29400 PE @ 92

BEP 29608.00

MAX PROFIT 4,160

MAX LOSS 1,840

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with negative bias. Hence, a bearish strategy is recommended.

TYPE: BUY PUT IN HINDALCO

FIRST LEG Buy HINDALCO JULY 200 PE @ 5.00

BEP 195.00

MAX PROFIT Unlimited

MAX LOSS 17500

STOP LOSS 1.50 (option levels)

RATIONALE The stock has given rising channel breakdown and lost more than 2% on the last trading day of the week. The stock has erased 5 days gains and closed at the lowest of trade on Friday. Its derivative activity suggests short built up in the counter. Hence, bearish view for the near term.

TYPE: BULL CALL IN ASIANPAINT

FIRST LEG Buy 1 Lot of ASIANPAINT JULY 1360 CE @ 15

SECOND LEG Sell 1 Lot of ASIANPAINT JULY 1400 CE @ 10

BEP 1385

MAX PROFIT 9000

MAX LOSS 3000

RATIONALE Asian Paint is one of the stocks which could withstand the decline in broader market and outperformed over last one month. It is one of the stocks which is trading above its all major moving averages and the volumes on the up move are strong. Hence, bullish view for near term.

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7KSTREET - 20TH JULY 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

DABUR 420.2 3.07 13596250 19.42

NTPC 129.9 1.64 96000000 18.09

KOTAKBANK 1498.9 1.03 10478000 17.04

COLPAL 1173.55 3.04 2201500 13.17

ZEEL 352.95 0.64 24566100 10.03

WIPRO 264.7 2.22 34448000 7.96

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


HAVELLS 717.05 0.93 6004000 -10.43

UPL 643.45 2.13 15392700 -7.51

TECHM 675.05 1.39 16760400 -7.09

JUBLFOOD 1215.9 0.67 2728000 -6.99

SUNPHARMA 421.35 3.35 54400500 -6.50

APOLLOHOSP 1373.45 0.75 1499500 -6.22

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


RBLBANK 500.40 -21.92 11502000 100.99

OIL 157.80 -9.41 13385262 61.20

TATAELXSI 701.45 -17.43 2346600 50.37

ACC 1543.65 -2.02 2920000 46.53

TORNTPHARM 1515.45 -2.64 836000 34.19

AMARAJABAT 610.65 -6.21 1765400 32.25

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


RECLTD 147.65 -0.77 53058000 -15.09

RELINFRA 42.65 -16.13 15668000 -11.64

BHEL 63.70 -1.70 46987500 -9.87

RELCAPITAL 51.15 -11.66 13410000 -9.82

BALKRISIND 728.65 -1.44 1989600 -9.37

BSOFT 73.75 -1.14 3060000 -8.40

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONGlobal bullion market staged a strong rally during the week ended on 19th July 2019 wherein CME gold futures rallied to fresh 6 years high of $1454.40 per troy ounce while silver rallied to $16.50 per troy ounce, surging to 13 years high. Global economic slowdown and report from IMF that US dollar is overpriced by 6-12% weighed on the global equity as well as currencies market thereby pushing gold and silver prices to multi year highs. On economic front, US retail sales for the month of June came at 0.4% beating market expectation of 0.1% but the data was same as that of previous month. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated pledges to “act as appropriate” to keep the US economy on track. US President said that there is a long way to go to conclude trade deal but he could impose tariffs on an additional $325 Bn worth of Chinese goods if required. Chinese GDP for the April – June quarter came at 6.2% against previous quarter reading of 6.4%, which is in line with market expectation while industrial sector expanded by 6.3% in June against May month reading of 5.0% and beating market expectation of 5.2%. US building permits dropped by -6.1% in June against previous month growth of 0.3% while housing declined by -0.9% vs. -0.4% in the previous month. On domestic front, MCX gold futures surged to an all time high of Rs. 35409 per 10 grams while silver futures rallied to multi month high of Rs. 41095 per kg.

ENERGYCrude oil prices moved lower on weekly basis owning to slower demand outlook in US reflected by inventory build up of gasoline & distillate in the weekly storage reports and also lower than previous Chinese GDP data raised concern over demand for oil and other products from the world’s second largest economy. Slowing down of economic growth and rising supplies from US amidst extension of production cut by OPEC+ is also weighing on the crude oil prices. Separately, easing of production tension at Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Barry swept through over the weekend also weighed on the market. Oil producers began restoring nearly 74% of output that was shut at US Gulf of Mexico platforms ahead of Hurricane Barry. As per EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 455.9 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week and are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 5.7 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Also, EIA reported that shale oil production is expected to rise by 49,000 barrels per day to a record 8.55 million barrels per day in the month of August. On Friday, crude oil prices rose as tensions brewed again in the Middle East after a US Navy ship destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz. IEA executive director said on Friday that agency doesn’t expect oil prices to rise significantly because demand is slowing and there is a glut in global crude markets.

METALSMetals market traded on a positive note during the week ended on 19th July after China’s Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment growth rose on a monthly basis, but the gains were capped by the slow GDP growth making the metals to wait for price rise. Primary Aluminium from China was at 2.97 million tons in June, up 1.3% against June 18. Primary aluminum production in the January-June period rose 2.2% from a year earlier to 17.41 million tons. A total of fixed range movement could be seen with downside being capped by heavy fall. China’s crude steel output rose 10% to 87.53 million tons in June. Chinese steel production rose 12.6% to 107.1 million tons in June. China’s steel output rose 11.4% in the January-June period to 586.9 million tons. Within the Jan – May 2019 period, output of refined copper products from China were up by 4.4% to 3.7 million tons, and that of copper semis increased 11.7% to 6.85 million tons, on a yearly basis. Imports of unwrought copper and semis fell 9.4% to 1.95 million tons, and those of copper ore grew 16.6% to 9.09 million tons. Imports of copper concentrate in China were at 1.47 million tons in June, down from 1.84 million tons in May as per the data from China Customs. Total imports during the six months period of 2019 were at 10.55 million tons, up 10.5% compared to June 2018. Imports of unwrought copper, copper semis slipped 9.7% on a monthly basis to 326,000 tons last month, sending the amount for January-June to 2.27 million tons, down 12.5% on a yearly note. As per China’s Ministry of Information

and Industry Technology, output of lead increased 15.8% to 2.38 million tons, and that of zinc dipped 0.6% to 2.27 million tons, both year on year. Nickel prices are trading higher after Indonesia having large nickel laterite ore reserves used to make nickel pig iron for the stainless steel industry decided to impose a ban again in 2022. Nickel prices took a correction towards the end of week after witnessing a huge rise of nearly 38% during the week.

COTTONCotton traded mixed to higher for most part of the week following slower monsoon progress in central region. Growing worries over delayed planting driven by deficit monsoon rainfall in Telangana and Maharashtra helped prices to trade on positive bias during first part of the week. However, prices lost most of the gains by end of the week on improved sowing numbers. Planting activities have gathered pace during last week as total sowing area under cotton for year 2019-20 has increased on yearly basis till end of 12th July. Ministry of Agriculture showed that about 96.35 lakh hectare was sown under cotton till 19th July compared to 92.70 lakh hectare of prior year. Cotton acreages in Gujarat is estimated to be higher by 24% on yearly basis as 21.42 lakh hectare was reported against 17.22 lakh hectare of prior year. However, ICE cotton futures dropped on improved crop condition amid sluggish export outlook for China. USDA released weekly export sales data for the week ending 11th July showed Net sales of 54,000 RB for 2018-19 were up 1% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales increased primarily for Vietnam (34,400 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), India (11,900 RB, including decreases of 1,000 RB), Indonesia (3,300 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), Bangladesh (3,300 RB), and Malaysia (2,600 RB, switched from Indonesia). Exports of 310,300 RB were down 7% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. At domestic front, total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to June 2019 is 347.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs each of which consists of the arrivals of 303.56 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019, imports of 11.28 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2018 at 33 lakh bales.

SOYBEAN Soybean futures extended its losses on improved sowing numbers in line with advancement of monsoon rainfall in major soybean growing states. Weighing on the soybean prices were the improved planting activities in India amid sluggish demand at physical market. Moreover, tumbling value of meal prices and adequate stocks in physical market also kept prices under pressure for most part of the week. Total area under soybean was reported at 79.81 lakh hectares till 19th July against 89.70 lakh hectare of prior year for corresponding period lower by 11% on yearly basis. About 40.81 lakh hectare was covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh till 19th July compared to 44.1 lakh hectare of prior year. At global front, Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures traded down on improved weather condition for crop progress. Brazilian government crop supply agency Conab increased its estimate of Brazil’s 2018-19 soybean crop to 115.0 million tonnes, from 114.8 million in June, but left its forecast of 2018-19 soybean exports unchanged at 68 million tonnes. The US Department of Agriculture in a monthly report lowered its estimate of US 2019-20 soybean production to 3.845 billion bushels, down from 4.150 billion in June but above an average of analyst expectations. The USDA lowered its estimate of the US soybean yield to 48.5 bushels per acre, down from 49.5 in June and roughly in line with trade expectations.


NICKEL

COMMODITIES

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 12-Jul 19-Jul % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

COMEX Gold (S/oz) 1409.90 1436.20 1.9% 1444.20 -0.55% 1161.40 23.66%

COMEX Silver (S.oz) 15.16 16.48 8.7% 16.51 -0.15% 13.91 18.48%

NYMEX Crude Oil (S/bbl) 60.21 55.48 -7.9% 76.90 -27.85% 42.36 30.97%

NYMEX Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 2.45 2.25 -8.2% 4.93 -54.31% 2.16 4.31%

LME Copper 3 Month ($/t) 5935.00 6077.00 2.4% 6565.00 -7.43% 5736.00 5.94%

LME Lead 3 Month ($/t) 1976.00 2077.00 5.1% 2188.00 -5.07% 1779.00 16.75%

LME Zinc 3 Month ($/t) 2438.00 2465.00 1.1% 2948.00 -16.38% 2300.50 7.15%

LME Nickel 3 Month ($/t) 13470.00 14430.00 7.1% 14860.00 -2.89% 10530.00 37.04%

LME Aluminium 3 Month ($/t) 1822.00 1854.00 1.8% 2258.50 -17.91% 1750.50 5.91%

CBOT Soybean (cents/bushel) 906.75 895.50 -1.2% 931.25 -3.84% 780.50 14.73%

CBOT Soy Oil (cents/lb) 28.11 27.79 -1.1% 31.01 -10.38% 26.03 6.76%

CBOT Soy Meal ($/t) 313.30 310.60 -0.9% 342.60 -9.34% 280.70 10.65%

LIFFE Sugar (S/t) 306.80 315.50 2.8% 390.70 -19.25% 291.50 8.23%

ICE Coffee (cents/lb) 105.20 107.15 1.9% 125.50 -14.62% 86.35 24.09%

ICE Cotton (cents/lb) 62.36 62.08 -0.4% 90.61 -31.49% 60.27 3.00%

ICE Sugar (cents/lb) 12.30 11.60 -5.7% 14.24 -18.54% 9.83 18.01%

CBOT Corn (cents/bushel) 449.50 431.00 -4.1% 464.25 -7.16% 335.50 28.46%

CBOT Wheat (cents/bushel) 536.25 502.75 -6.2% 593.00 -15.22% 416.25 20.78%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER

LEAD

Nickel MCX July is currently trading at 1006. During the previous week, it made a high of 1403 and low of 928.10. The RSI is trading at 72.50. Moving average of 13 is at 951 and 55 is at 898. The trend is looking positive for the week.Recommendations:Nickel July MCX: Buy at 978-980 TP 1040 SL 940.

Copper MCX July is currently trading at 455 levels. During the previous week, it made a high of 461.60 and low of 442.45. The RSI is trading at 60.13. Moving average of 13 is at 441.90 and 55 is at 430.59. The trend is looking positive for the week.Recommendation:Copper July MCX: Buy at 453.50-454 TP 465 SL 449

Lead MCX July is currently trading at 151. During the week, it made a high of 157.85 and low of 150.80. The RSI is trading at 47.09. Moving average of 13 is at 154.70 and 55 is at 148.25. The trend is looking negative for the week.Recommendation:Lead July MCX: Sell at 153.50-154 TP 148 SL 157


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Gold prices eased on Friday as investors booked profits after the metal hit a two-week high earlier in the session on increased expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed is widely expected to cut a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. However, the fall was limited because of escalating tension between US and China.

• USDA released its crop progress reports for the week ending 14th July and rated about 56% of cotton crop under good to excellent condition against the 54% of prior week and 41% of last year for corresponding week. USDA increased cotton production estimated for India from 28.50 million bales (365.4 lakh bales of 170 kg each) to 29 million bales (371 lakh bales of 170 kg each) in its latest report.

• Zinc prices witnessed a rise in the current week after Chinese Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment growth rose on a monthly basis. Zinc mine production during the first five months of 2019 was reasonably up to 5273 thousand tonnes compared to 5201 thousand tonnes. The refined metal usage and production were down by 55 thousand tonnes and 35 thousand tonnes making the prices to trade higher.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• As per EIA, US crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, down by 470,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.1 million barrels per day, 16.3% less than the same four-week period last year.

• The weakness in dollar index made the whole metals segment to close the week on a positive note. Nickel is the top gainer during the whole week supported by the export ban news from Indonesia. Following it was the addition of long positions at Shanghai markets. Also, the dollar index weakness supported the nickel prices to trade upwards.

• NPI based stainless steel production in China has raised by 10% so far for the first half of this year. Also the releases from Indonesian government regarding the re-imposition on nickel ore exports from 2022 have stoked fear among traders.

• China’s copper smelters have slashed their minimum charges for converting concentrates into refined metal reflecting a tightening market for copper raw material. According to the ICSG, Chilean output slid 5% in the first quarter and Indonesian’Grasberg mine’s production slumped 52% year-on-year.

• China’s imports of copper concentrates rose by 14% to 19.7 million tonnes and there has been no drop-off so far this year with first half imports up 10% year-on-year. China has been importing more concentrates; it has been importing less refined metal with net imports sliding 12% over the January-May period to 1.23 million tonnes.

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COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 12-Jul 19-Jul % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1828.00 1851.00 1.26%

Copper LME 3M 5960.00 5966.50 0.11%

Lead LME 3M 1978.00 2037.00 2.98%

Nickel LME 3M 13575.00 14945.00 10.09%

Zinc LME 3M 2437.00 2457.00 0.82%

Gold CME Aug 1417.80 1447.40 2.09%

Silver CME Sep 15.25 16.39 7.44%

WTI Crude oil CME July 60.39 55.63 -7.88%

Natural Gas CME July 2.46 2.29 -6.83%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 12-Jul 19-Jul % change

Soybean CBOT Aug 919.25 900.50 -2.04%

Soy oil CBOT Aug 28.32 27.68 -2.26%

CPO BMD Sep 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE Dec 62.62 61.71 -1.45%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 285825 296450 10625 3.72%

Zinc 78550 79650 1100 1.40%

Aluminium 945375 974000 28625 3.03%

Lead 64550 61375 -3175 -4.92%

Nickel 150324 147942 -2382 -1.58%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 145279 154520 9241 6.36%

Zinc 74065 75519 1454 1.96%

Aluminium 419050 422022 2972 0.71%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 36158 37391 1233 3.41%

-8.71%

-7.93%

-7.64%

-3.47%

-3.25%

-2.61%

-2.10%

-1.70%

-1.03%

-0.70%

0.14%

0.59%

0.74%

0.91%

1.49%

1.51%

1.56%

2.73%

2.75%

2.79%

4.53%

4.61%

6.02%

6.95%

7.30%

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

Cardamom

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Lead

Guar Gum

Guar Seed

Castor Seed

Zinc

Dhaniya

Soy Oil

CPO

RM Seed

Gold

Aluminum

Barley

Cotton

Soybean

Turmeric

Copper

Jeera

Wheat

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Silver

Mentha Oil

Nickel

Cotton Acreages in India as on 12th July

State Year 2018-19 Year 2019-20 % Change

Northern Region

Haryana 6.65 6.76 2%

Punjab 2.84 4.02 42%

Rajasthan 4.43 6.36 44%

Total Northern Region 13.92 17.14 23%

Central Region

Gujarat 11.44 18.76 64.0%

Madhya Pradesh 5.24 5.18 -1%

Maharashtra 30.85 22.776 -26%

Total Central Region 47.53 46.716 -1.7%

Southern Region

Karnataka 2.26 1.219 -46%

Telangana 11.12 10.82 -3%

Andhra Pradesh 2.22 0.81 -64%

Tamil Nadu 0.035 0.035 0%

Total Southern region 15.635 12.884 -18%

Others 0.17 0.97 471%

India as whole 77.255 77.71 0.6%

Area in Lakh Hectares Source: Ministry of Agriculture


USD/INR

USDINR is trading at 68.80. During the week, it made a high of 68.99 and low of 68.50. The RSI is at 42.09. Moving average of 32 is at 69.92 and 55 is at 70.38. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 68.70 TP 69.50 SL 68.20

EUR/INR

EURINR is trading at 77.31. During the week, it made a high of 77.53 and low of 76.99. The RSI is trading at 39.95. Moving average of 32 is at 79.01 and 55 is at 80.21. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 77.00-76.90 TP 78.00 SL 76.50.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is trading at 86.23. During the week, it made a high of 86.41 and low of 85.10. The RSI is trading at 33.65. Moving average of 32 is at 89.93 and 55 is at 90.88. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 86.20-86.10 TP 87.50 SL 85.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is trading at 63.89. During the week, it made a high of 64.06 and low of 63.40. The RSI is at 52.88. Moving average of 32 is at 63.59 and 55 is at 63.46. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 63.70-63.60 TP 64.70 SL 63.20.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Rupee closed for the week at 68.80 after hitting weekly high of 69.01 and low of 68.50. Dollar found support at around 68.30/68.4 levels. The pair has now broken resistance of 68.80 and if it stays above this level some more dollar strength is expected in the near term. Sensex plunged more than 500 points while Nifty 50 broke below 11,500 levels to end the week. India’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 15.28 Bn in June from USD 16.6 Bn in June 2018. Exports fell 9.71% to USD 25.01 Bn in June compared to the year earlier and imports were down 9.06% at USD 40.29 Bn. Indian government’s first tranche of overseas sovereign bonds might be issued at $3-4 Bn as per reports. The bonds will likely be issued simultaneously at financial hubs such as London, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong. Dollar’s upside potential against majors is hampered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next policy meeting. China’s economic growth slowed to a record low of 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019. ECB expected to hold Main Refinancing Rate at its 25th July meet.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• Chinese economy reports lowest GDP growth on record for second quarter as US trade war bites. China’s economic growth slowed to a record low of 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019.

• ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said the bank will need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up.

• Boris Johnson is likely to win the Conservative party leadership contest and become the next British Prime Minister as early as the end of this month.

• India’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 15.28 Bn in June from USD 16.6 Bn in June 2018.

• Stronger than expected June US retail sales data reduced the chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at its month-end policy review.

• IMF said the dollar is overvalued by 6% to 12% based on near-term economic fundamentals.

• FPIs registered as trusts will have to pay the new tax surcharge dashing hopes that the government may tweak relevant portions of the Finance Bill to ring-fence FPIs from the effects of the “super-rich” tax.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 68.55 69.01 68.50 68.80

EURINR 77.38 77.58 77.23 77.31

GBPINR 86.13 86.42 86.09 86.25

JPYINR 63.59 64.28 63.45 63.91


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Prior Reuters Poll Unit Unit Prior

22 Jul 2019 17:30 UK Steel Production Jun 650.40k Ton (metric) Percent 6.8

23 Jul 2019 15:30 UK CBI Trends - Orders Jul -15 -15 Net balance Percent 10.7

23 Jul 2019 19:30 US Existing Home Sales Jun 5.34M 5.33M Number of Percent 5.6

23 Jul 2019 19:30 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg Jun 2.5% 0.2% Percent Percent 5

23 Jul 2019 19:30 EU Consumer Confid. Flash Jul -7.2 -7.2 Net balance Percent 8.6

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly crude stocks 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 6.4

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly gasoline stk 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 1.4

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly dist. stocks 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 6.4

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly heating oil 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 6

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly crude imports 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 8.15

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly product imports 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 2.45

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API weekly crude runs 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 5.1

24 Jul 2019 03:00 US API Cushing number 15 Jul, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of Percent 6.99

24 Jul 2019 13:30 EU Money-M3 Annual Grwth Jun 4.8% 4.7% Percent Percent 0.98

24 Jul 2019 13:30 EU Broad Money Jun ######## EUR Percent 1.28

24 Jul 2019 13:30 EU Markit Mfg Flash PMI Jul 47.6 47.7 Index (diffusion) Index -8.6

24 Jul 2019 13:30 EU Markit Serv Flash PMI Jul 53.6 53.3 Index (diffusion) Percent -0.3

24 Jul 2019 13:30 EU Markit Comp Flash PMI Jul 52.2 52.1 Index (diffusion) Percent -0.2

24 Jul 2019 19:15 US Markit Comp Flash PMI Jul 51.5 Index (diffusion) Percent 0.5

24 Jul 2019 19:15 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Jul 50.6 51.5 Index (diffusion) Percent 0.5

24 Jul 2019 19:15 US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Jul 51.5 51.7 Index (diffusion) Percent 0.5

24 Jul 2019 19:30 US New Home Sales-Units Jun 0.626M 0.659M Number of Percent 0.5

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 19 Jul, w/e -3.116M Barrel Percent 3.16

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 19 Jul, w/e 5.686M Barrel Percent -2.2

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 19 Jul, w/e 3.565M Barrel Percent 6.2

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Imports 19 Jul, w/e 0.044M Barrel Percent 0.4

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 19 Jul, w/e -0.001M Barrel Percent 78.1

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 19 Jul, w/e 0.889M Barrel Percent 0.2

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Prods Imports 19 Jul, w/e -0.293M Barrel/Day Percent 2.05

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist Output 19 Jul, w/e 0.003M Barrel/Day Percent 0.5

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Runs 19 Jul, w/e -0.171M Barrel/Day Percent 0.3

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Refining Util 19 Jul, w/e -0.3% Percent Index 64

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 19 Jul, w/e -1.351M Barrel USD 46.9

24 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 19 Jul, w/e -0.563M Barrel/Day USD 16.9

24 Jul 2019 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 19 Jul, w/e 23,365k Barrel USD -7.8

24 Jul 2019 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 19 Jul, w/e 1,066k Barrel/Day USD 40.8

25 Jul 2019 15:30 UK CBI Distributive Trades Jul -42 -15 Net balance Percent -2.4

25 Jul 2019 17:15 EU ECB Refinancing Rate Jul 0.00% 0.00% Percent Index 505.8

25 Jul 2019 17:15 EU ECB Deposit Rate Jul -0.40% -0.40% Percent Index 275.6

25 Jul 2019 18:00 US Durable Goods Jun -1.3% 0.8% Percent Index 1800

25 Jul 2019 18:00 US Durables Ex-Transport Jun 0.4% 0.2% Percent Percent 4.04

25 Jul 2019 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 20 Jul, w/e 216k 215k Person Percent 10.1

25 Jul 2019 18:00 US Continued Jobless Claims 13 Jul, w/e 1.686M Person No. of 1.299

25 Jul 2019 20:00 US EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 19 Jul, w/e 62B Cubic foot Percent 0.7

25 Jul 2019 20:00 US Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 19 Jul, w/e 62B Cubic foot No. of 1.269

26 Jul 2019 18:00 US GDP Advance Q2 3.1% 1.8% Percent Percent -0.9

26 Jul 2019 18:00 US Core PCE Prices Advance Q2 1.2% 2.0% Percent Percent 2.3

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RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue046.pdf · Rs.3 lakh crore out of the total projected tax revenue of Rs.16.5 lakh crore for FY19-20 vs.

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