RTT Analysis Workshop Species Status and Trend (Chapter 1) Casey Baldwin RTT Chairperson WDFW Research Scientist.

RTT Analysis WorkshopSpecies Status and Trend

(Chapter 1)

Casey BaldwinRTT Chairperson

WDFW Research Scientist

Session 1. Species status and trend

How are the fish doing with respect to the VSP parameters?

VSP = Viable Salmonid Population1)Abundance2)Productivity3)Spatial structure4)Diversity

Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?

• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is juvenile productivity of naturally produced fish increasing within each population?

Presentations / papers

1) Cooney et al. update to status assessments since the Recovery Plan.

2) Weigel et al.- genetic variation of O. mykiss for a portion of the Methow Population

3) RTT- after the workshop- Juvenile productivity (smolt trap summaries)

UC Spring Chinook = high riskUC Steelhead = high risk

Species status and trend

Species status and trend

Species status and trend

UC Spring Chinook: Updated AP Status Metrics

Wenatchee River Spring ChinookViability Curve

Species status and trendWenatchee

OkanoganEntiat

Methow

Spatial Structure

Spring Chinook = Low Risk for all populations

Steelhead = Low Risk for all populations, except Okanogan

•Recent restoration efforts in Salmon Creek and Omak Creek are likely to reduce the risk level in future status updates.

Homogenization

11 01 1 10 0 0 00 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 00 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 00 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 10 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 00 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Upper Columbia Chinook

0

0 0

0 0 0.01

0 0 0.1 0.06

0.02 0 0.02 0.37 0.19

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.22

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0.04 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0.45 0.21 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.15 0.14 0 0 0.03

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.01 0 0 0.01 0.18 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.63 0 0.48

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.09 0.02 0 0 0.02 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.01

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.26 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.62 0.01

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.41 0 0

0 0 0 0.02 0.01 0.08 0 0.04 0.06 0.02 0 0.01 0.05 0.06 0 0.01 0 0.04 0 0 0.08 0.01 0.07 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.31 0.36 0.09 0.16 0.02

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.51 0.19 0.46 0 0.03 0.03

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.21 0 0.06 0

0.01 0 0 0 0.02 0.21 0 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.99 0.09 0.44 0 0.23 0.1 0.62 0.05

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.17 0 0.08 0 0.04 0.12 0 0.06

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.13 0 0.87 0.03 0.22 0.06 0.52 0.03 0.04

0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0.01 0 0.02 0 0 0.02 0.48 0 0 0.15 0.2 0.23 0 0.06 0 0.04

Snake River Chinook

Diversity UpdateGenetic Homogenization

Spawner Composition TrendsWenatchee Spring Chinook

Year

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

pHO

S

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Annual estimateLinear regression12 yr geomean

pHOS = % hatchery spawners. high = bad

DiversityManagement Action: ENFH stopped releasing out-of-ESU origin hatchery spring Chinook (2007).

Species status and trend

SS/D ratingVery Low Low Moderate High

A/P

ratin

g

Very Low (<1%)

highly viablemaintained

Low (<5%) viable

Moderate (<25%)

maintained

High high riskSteelheadEntiatMethowWenatcheeOkanogan Spring Chinook

EntiatMethowWenatchee

Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?

Summary: Current trends in the data have little adaptive management significance given that populations are still so far from recovery levels and that they are based on such a short time series.

Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters

1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed

2. Need to define a “trend”

Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?

• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters

1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed

2. Need to define a “trend”

Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters

1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed

2. Need to define a “trend”

3. Need to incorporate Canadian Okanogan

Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?

• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?

• Is juvenile productivity of naturally produced fish increasing within each population?

Juvenile Productivity

• Summary table (smolt trap summary)• Snapshot of some data (smolts/redd)• Discuss the future

Juvenile Productivity

Juvenile ProductivitySummary

Table

Watershed/River Operator Years of operation

Estimate total smolt

production?

Smolts / redd

Source/comments

White River YN 2007-present Yes Yes Data is reported to GPUD.

Nason Creek YN 2004-present (7)

Yes Yes Data is reported to BPA and ISEMP

Chiwawa R WDFW 1991-present

(19) Yes Yes CPUD Hatchery M&E report

Lake Wenatchee Trap

WDFW 1997-present

(14) Yes No

Only valid for Sockeye, CPUD Hatchery M&E report

Monitor (lower Wenatchee)

WDFW 2000-present Yes Yes

WDFW database, CPUD Hatchery M&E report does

not report smolt production for spring Chinook or

steelhead from the Monitor trap.

Lower Entiat USFWS 2007-present (lower trap)

Yes? Yes? ISEMP is planning to estimate production estimate after 5 yrs.

Lower Methow WDFW 2002-present

(9) Yes Yes

only reported through 2007 (WDFW annual report to

DPUD)

Twisp WDFW 2002-present

(9) Yes Yes

only reported through 2007 (WDFW annual report to

DPUD)

Lower Okanogan CCT 2006-present

(4) Yes No

OBMEP annual reports; high uncertainty on the

total production estimates due to low trap efficiency

Omak Ck CCT 2007-present

(4) No No

Unpublished data available through the Colville Tribes

Adaptive Management RecommendationsJuvenile Productivity

1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed

2. Need to define a “trend”

3. Evaluate statistics (variance, autocorrelation, duration) within and between trapping locations.

Questions?