RSA Pamphlets - N Squared - Public policy and the power of networks

8/9/2019 RSA Pamphlets - N Squared - Public policy and the power of networks

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N Squared

Public policy and the power

of networks

Paul Ormrod

essay 3/august 2010

21st century enlightenment


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8 Jh Am SL wc2n 6ez

+44 (0)20 7930 5115

Ri hi iEl Wl . 212424 i Sl . sco37784

Cpih RSA 2010

Th RSA i lihmii v iiviv pil li pi il pblm.

.hRSA.


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Acknowledgements

I m l mm m li mBi Rll, Sv Bm h RSA.

Biography

Pl Om i mi h h h b-lli bk,The Death o Economics (1994), Buttery Economics(1998) Why Most Things Fail(2005), Business Week USBi Bk h Y. Pl i ll h BiihAm Sil Si hl h D Si m h Uivi Dhm hi iilibi mi. Hi mi i i mplxm k, h pblih i v i mi jl.1

1. Avilbl .plm.m


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7

N Squared

For years, there was the basic assumption at the heart o

government that the way to improve things in society was to

micromanage rom the centre, rom Westminster. But this just

doesnt work. . . . The success o the Big Society will depend on

the daily decisions o millions o people: on them giving theirtime, efort, even money, to causes around them.

Pim Mii, Dvi Cm 20102

F m, h lii vm l i h BiSi i pli i h mll , impl i i h pbli m mi pi. F h ili h RSA i i mb hl pill ii i h couldpl ivii ii mpm i Biih plii.

Whv m hik b h Bi Si lip i bili ll iv pli ki plii, h i m pk mp p mll hik h lihip b h ii h xplii ii h vm ll l i l i kli m mpi p il hll.

Implii i h vm iv h i hi ppl ll ll vl mmip ill b iivi m i h ivi ph,

pp b iiiiv lik h Nil CiiSvi h Bi Si Nk. I ppii, liCviv hi MP p Nudge C Si Rih Thl bk pli bhvilmi hi mm i li. Th lii

2. O Bi Si A, Dvi Cm ph, Livpl 19 Jl 2010.


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8 essay 3 / august 2010

vm m hv mb bhvil mi, l i li i m pibl p

m bhvi. I Programme o Government:O vm ill b mh m , hi hbi lv h p i illi , pp bl ppl mk b hi hmlv.3

Y i mi l h x h vmvii i pi b p hiki b mivi,

hih i im b mi kl bh bhvilmi ( h pli ii mki hi) h l h k pl.

Thi h b iv, h pli mk h - m l h iih h bhvil mi iv , b l b pi b i b hi hk if hi h h h vim. I, h imp k i pill ibl h h . Thi mk i plih hil i h pil h.

Thi i h hi i h RSA i pmphl - lihm. I im p i pbli ii ll ih h Sihiki b i l i i ll k i hm p.

The role of the state

A iiihi h W l i h ih i h m xpi h l h .Gll, m h i pvil ihi h mi h hi piv hv b mb ihi

3. Th UK lii vm Programme or Government. 2010..pmmvm.hm.v.k


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n squared 9

h pbli . I h UK, h m vl ilivm i hi h Clm Al (1945

1951). Y h h h pbli i h m Al l h i i h vm MThh, h b pph pivii.

F v ix i plimk hvb i hv mhii vi h l, hkli mli: hiv pil im, p li plii impl ik hm . I i mi

vim i hih p, bi mil pbl,pibl llbl.

Thi pph i mll i m hih b i h W l, xp i h l . A mh l i i h hl i. Y p il mipblm mi. Bh h v mplm h ihi hih i vi l i ih ix i h S Wl W h m pipi i. Cmpi im v im i ilil, b pi ll i h mi-1990, h lvl im i mh hih h i i 1950. Th i i b b h il mbili i h UK hh i ll lihl N Lb. Whi l i h i h impv iil i h 1970 h h iibi im lh h i.Th mbii l-l ivi mhiipph plimki h liv hi lik h h h i h h l i h1940 imi.

P h li ih h ii b h . A bil ppi pbli pi i mp im b i p hhh x b m. Th l m h lim h pbli h il m (GDP) i, hv,h p h k mpl b h . Rp m h Nil Ai O, xmpl, hihlih


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h h h i i h h l lowerpivi i h h .4

B h piipl h il h mihll h il mi ml hiv i bjiv i h i h b h illl mk ihih i p. Th Fiil Svi Ahi i illi hi mi. Clv, il ppl bliv hlv, il ppl l vi i m l li h ik miimi. Th FSA

hil i lh i 1997 b G B i,- , -p , il pvi ll pvi il vi. Wih m v 2,500ppl, i i h ih i h 8,500 p li. A l hi lbk ll b il mp, h FSA ppl i. Y i ilpll , l l v, h il ii.

A i vi m 2007 pl h lil hi vi h l. A - l b i v hi pi i p Wi.T pli mmi h p h h h h h b ii . A h i Div Chi Ip hi bhvi: iv hi lk ii i l,h xpli, hv b ipppi hm vh hil m h. Thi h i h p h . T hm, bh ll i hi ixi, lpi h p ih hiki ii, i h il.Th b iiivl i v hi i i.

Thi m i b h i i l

illi h mi h l i hppi. A hv, i h l lih h i, vhii l ii b ili pppibhvi ii. I h mm, h i ll ilb i ll. Jmpi i p k

4. F xmpl, O Nil Sii, Total Public Service Output andProductivity, 14 A 2009 vii.


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n squared 11

ph ik li hil h i h ill v h. Si b i hi m h il

ill i, b ill liv.Th i h ih ik i, ih

p h hm ii. Th l i mh m mplx,mh l llbl h il pl bliv. Pli iv il ih. Th mi hi.

Fil, hm bi il bhv iil . I, hi j ppl iivil;

i mi, ii-mki i hh ii, m vm p h h ph .Thi i i hi h k implii ipi.Eih , h p h h bi imi b i iiv, m bh iip. Th RSA Sil Bi pj i xplim h h hi i h h impliihi m hv plimk iivil.5

Sl, p iivil x, mi h m hm b, b b lil b bvi li b h bhvi h. Ev i k i h iv l pli h , h i h hl ill b h m m, x k, i ix mhim. Th p ill p l x h h . Thi m m bvi, b i i k i i m pli vli. Th ii h li pil l i b h iv i.

O ii i h h hm l

p, h ii mi i, h m i v h p pl ih p h k pi m bv. Bhvil mi mi phl ivi b p h iivil ll h. Liki, h

5. M Gi. Steer. RSA 2010. .h./pj/il-bi


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k, h ii m h bhvi pb ih p b i il

k, h m m v.I i l b vlpi h iih bhvil

mi k h plii b vi ih il hih . Th mi hi ppi k, b bi ii h implii bhvil mi i .

Nudging

Th i l li i h l bhvilmi. Th k h 2002 Nbl Pi i,V Smih Dil Khm, mk l h il bhv i h pl mi ili.6 Thi li i b mi , l, b ix iiih hl ivlv iExperimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules.7 Th bk pvi mphiv li lm 500 , i hi l xpiml mi h h m h k ivi m i il impl b iv

xpim. F xmpl, m p pp il b -iiv. I h , i I p A B B C, h iivi i m p A C.B hi lil mpi i l bv i li.Thi i j xmpl h mpiil vi vilk mpi vil mi h.

Plimk hv i h i h b

i iivil bhvi bl m

6. S hi piv l: D Khm. Mp b ili:phl bhvil mi, iAmerican Economic Review, 93, 1449 1475,2003; V Smih. Civi lil ili i mi, iAmericanEconomics Review, 93, 465508, 2003.

7. N Bl, R Cbi, G Lm, P M, C Sm R S.Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules. Pi Uivi P 2010.


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n squared 13

iv pli b i b i.8 Mimmi mh i, hih h v

ii pp, ml li h iiv, hih . Th m bvi hi iiv i h h pi.

B bhvil i b h. F xmpl,bk i h 1970 1980, h i pl,h pliil b b h iivil hlp hi i . Shl ppl hv h i m

mill b hi mpl l h pill k b , i h hv libl i hi b ? N, h pph iiivil v lihl i m im hii b hh b i i , b h v mll i m il li h vi b. Y i pi h i i mb h mh bil. Th x i hihh i , hh h l p i ,xi pl if.

Whil h iih bhvil mi pilliv m p plimk, pxill h l i. F xmpl, i h p i pil x iil -iiv, i hm h i m ill b ik hll. A p lvl, h implii bhvil mi i h b h lim hih vil mi mk l h bhvi.9 Thi mk xpliih i h i i iip h mih iv pli h. W mih v ll

mk i mpi b h bhvil l h ll i i iv x.A l, il, pi b i i h

h im bhvil mi i pvi b

8. R Thl C Si. Nudge. Yl Uivi P 2008.9. A l i h ii kl, hi i h

l mk ill v b iv.


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ipi h ppl ll bhv as individuals.Th mpi bhi mim mi i h

ml k il i hbhvi h . Nk, i , . A hiimplii b mi.

Networks

Nk i il i imi i hpli pi. Th h b xpli ii ii k v h p i iipli.

Th illl vlpm b h imh hm il . I mi h, iivilp lik m Rbi C, ki ip,m ii h il if b hii pii h. Nk h ll hil imi hm ivi b k i h i h bhv, hhiki hh h pli implii hi bhvi.

Th phm il li li hh

bvi ii ih h il ivi m i h iml kim.10 Nl li i bliv v il li i, mhimh pi h p h h p.11 Hm pill p hi bhvi. M hii mk b mh h ip,il lli h b i i

h m bhvi pi i mi h b bvi pi h.

10. S, xmpl, W Hppi K Ll. Sil p ifili i iml: A vi h vi, iAdvances in the Study o Behavior,38, 105165, 2008.

11. F xmpl, L Rll, R B et al. Wh p h? Iih mh il li i m, i Science, 328, 208213, 2010.


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n squared 15

Th vi p hih hi m bhvi f. A bvi xmpl i p p; h

h l h blii m h vi hi h immi p p. Sbl i i hp p p. Thi h phm ppl ii i m bhvi b h pplihi hi il p vim . I i ih h iii mi mi pilbhvi. M ll, h m b mll mb

iivil h pill i iv x, illi p hi ii.

Th ph k i hi x h p i b iivil. Ol h hih i hv h bili if hbhvi h directly. O , h ii b iv m h k, h mil if b h h ifm l h h iil k, .Ui h ii hih hmih i i h piipl hll k h.I hi l.

F iivil, h lv i ill vih x. S, xmpl, h h bhvi pii k i h ii h p vi ill ll b i m h h mihif bi iki. Th ill b imivi li illi b if ih mpll i x.

Th k pi i h i bh ii, bhvi

m b il b h h ppl , h hbi b m, ip il lli.I il mi ii h k imp, vil pli im li iv b l pil i h i. Th il lm ll xii il mi li k pil k li h pp il h


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il mi . I m ii h illb mix h bhvil mivi

M h ili ppii hih kp h i iv pli b mmii impl xmpl. Wih Am Hiik G MUivi, I ivi h hpp h impl mv mi h h k pi h m.12

Th bi ml i v impl; hv p

iivil mpli hh b pilp. Eh h hi h iii p hi , h ill i b i lvl pi. Sm l ill p hih pi;h ill l b i i i piv bi hp. Th lipi pi i xl h: h m m hv p i. S, xmpl, mihxmi b hmp h i pi l. B pi hv mh i, mli-imilipi. I ill mmi h i, hh b i, ih pil i.

Fm h iivil p, h pi hih ippl ill b h p ( h ivi), il bi mk m v. I h , ph iivil ii h mh i bh, h mh h ivi i i , i pi. Thi i h l j mi h, b i, hih iv b hiki b pi, b h ih i ppl m i i.

I hi v bi ml ( Fi 1), h A p h

li mk m v. A pi i, m ll. Wh i h i hi x m h b, h h m ppl b h p, ivpi, h m likl iv iivil i b i ll.

12. A Hiik P Om. N-iiv mk m i: piliii ih b, b Vbl , .plm.m


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n squared 17

Fi 1

Price

Demand

.. . . . .

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Price

Demand

.. . . . ..

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Price

D

emand

.. . . . .

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Price

Demand

.. . . . .

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Ch B, C D h h vll m h p( piipi i h ivi) ih i h

h b . Th hi , h l pi m. I h h, bh pi m v b0 1, vi pli hm b hih im lii. Pi lill k vl b0 1: h, pi 0 p h l pi i iv mk hih v h i i i hp ( p) ill b i. Simill, pi 1 m h

pi hih - ll ill b i. Thik Mmi. Evi i , lill pi , h m ppl ili h h h l ill bi i i. A h h xm, h i pi hihv h m Mmi ill p bi i. A vl 1 m m h v h h i ih p b i, vl m - .

Ev hi impl ml i m i. H k h h lv m pi i? I im, xmpl, h pi h imil il hi im h h bi pi? Th ii vi hi vil pi. H k h iibi h ih p b h ivi hh h h i pi? H k hihh i iv k i ? Bm h i ppl v h h i k p ll. Th f h ili iih plimk v i ppl impl l.

B pp h mh ll h pblm lvi bl i . W h hll

ppii h h xi k bi.Imi h p l h h A.Piipi i h ivi i hih, h i ihi bi mll. Plimk i hi m ivi i h pi.

I -k l, i i hh h pli i ki. P h pi p, m ll.


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n squared 19

B i b hi i i p h i h,ii h pi iiill h . Th, l,

j i, b h mll i i pi, bi h i m h l k pl i hb k .

Hv, h hii mih ll hv l hh pli ii h pi h k ll bhi iil pi h. Ell , h mihb mp m xm pii m h i

mp vm k , hih m ll pv i.

Si p h i pi hih mp imh imp pi m ih ki i k mih l pvi v i i plimk. O, ih vi k m l limi h h, h pli l h ll. Bh h i pi ( h ih-h i h D, xmpl) h h pil i ii p bhvi i k .

Th il hll i p h h k imp bl bmiiil . Rh i lli m m b hpil imp k , hil h p h, hli, lbl mk hll lik limh h bmi m ii.

The Watts model

Th ml I hv li i lm impl ,b v i bh ppii ili pli.Wh hpp h i h ppi ll k?

D W, i h Hm Sil DmiGp Yh! Rh, il p Clmbi.I 2002, h pblih billi il: A impl ml


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lbl m k.13Th ilm b b, b h pil implii m.

Th ipi W ml i h ki m imv hi pph i imil h m ll ik ml, i implii pli pii p. W i i h hpp i implml i hih, lib mpi, h only hi h h h b liv h hih h hv l m.

W p mp ml iivil h h h m. W ll hik hi ml m ih m impl l, hihi hih h h. S, xmpl, h hv 100 i h ml i h h i 5 p h iv bi h .14 O v, h illb v h. I hi x, h bi m h hih pill if bhvi. A ill hl,hi m h hi ill necessarily h bhv, b h mll p hih hl h hv hpotential .

Thi i , b pl m p,m m il lii b i blppximi m pil ii. Epimi, xmpl, p b m . A p h k h ill v i hb, h l. I i, ih bv imil h h,

hih h pl ppl i i h h h i lmp. A ibl ii l b h ih mppl i i. Y k hm, b h h

13. D W. A impl ml lbl m k,i Proceedings o the National Academy o Science, 99, 5766 5771, 2002.

14. I pi, h l ll b l m ppl vi mll mplpblm, b h mb 100 i kp h ihmi impl.


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n squared 21

m hv h hi l b iii hi m i i b h i immi ivl. I il

mk, m mi mll mb hll, b i h mk mv l i ii l h ii m ppl il k h , ibl ii mih b ll hi .

W m b pl ih k h hv mxplii il hm. B h,I ill ib h h l h m ii

h mpi m k. I hi ml, h hi b liv. Th l b m ii b mpi b, mii i hli m iihh mi Ali bm Chli.

I li, ppl ill k i hl i mki h ii, b i ll h , m h mh imi i mk h hi, h li ih ih/. Th m b m h hi (ili hi ih), b hi ilb mm i h ml. I h implvi h h hi i b liv, hihI ill A B.

Iiill, h h m , m ll hvh A. W pi l bhvi hmi hh h ih A ih B. W ll mk h il lii mpi h h i ihi h iii illi ih. Th m imii vilbl h pbili hi illi xpim, h m h ml b l

ii. B h mm imi hv imi hi ll. Lki l imi, implll m h mb b .Slihl il, ll mb l i m b less pbl less illi ih hm ll mb l . Th hiill bm l. W ll hi mb h threshold h .


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H, h, i hh ih m A B? I hi m, m h h l imi b

h i mki hi hi i h hi h h h hih h h i hv m. I h ih A h ppi h lv hhv h B i bv h hhl, h ill lh B i A. F implii i i m h hh i l if ll i. I pi him l b h .15 S, xmpl, i hhl i

0.5 h h v hih hv h B, ill ih ( b 3/5 = 0.6, hih i h 0.5). B i l hv h B, ihA ( 2/5 = 0.4, hih i l h 0.5). I i pp h hih hhl m h h i l pbl h ih l hhl. Sm ih hhl bv0.8 ill ll hi h k h B b bip ih, hil i i i l h 0.2, v j p hi B ill l h l mk hi hi.

A bv, h m b m h k i i ii b A B. Th him b h ppl h pii bhvi h hp m v ll b hm, b ilh l . A impl xmpl i i A B mpim b, hi pi m if ii ll h h ppl hv h. Th il Wml i b vli l h hi hmi k .

I, h mpi h h bhvi h i h l m b bl . I h xmpl

li, m hv ibk h i h h bl l h pi j liv, b hmb ppl i h m ill b h iiv . I hii, hv livl mll m imi

15. A mpiil xmpl i hih h if i imkl i P Om Hk, Th Illl Silim WihSl-F Nk. i Economic Afairs, 4147, Mh 2006.


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n squared 23

hih mk jm, li h hi m bh mk . I h ii, ppl m b bl

i l m imi b p h ihl il . Ui h imivilbl , , hi pi pl i h k. S il b bl l h i mmi ppl hi m.

Playing the game

W i pii pl h m. Iiill, mmb,h v h l A. Th m i bhi mll mb m ih B.Imi h hv m pli hih i hibhvi, m hih iiill i li h bhvi m ppl.

Th pp h m i h m pli B h h A. Th p b hih h hi i b h pi l: h (l if ), h pbl , h m pil if mki hi i

. I , i p ih m A B, ill pill if ppl h lk p hi ii-mki p.

Th l pil pl h m m b viiv h pil im. F xmpl, pph l mk h iiil ih m A B h v h p, h

i lm v h mih if hm hB b h hmlv i. Th h p h k ppl hi B h h A m ll bpp h h. N- l h B ll bh mll p m l .

I pi, h m imi hv b , hh , h pbl h , h


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m libi h ml l-li ii.B i h b i hih W pl hi m h

imi i lki. Thi i b h. Bxpli i iiil hi h ,b hvi hm i h , bivi h i lvl pbili, h l ppi h ml i mpi.

T hi, h m i pl m im iil

l. Th l i i h h m ih B h v .16 A il pi i h h mmb i l ih m A B h im, h iiil hk h m, i xl h m.

A lv pil xmpl i im b h ;h pimim pimim hih m l pi i im K iml pii i impmi h bm b h bi l. W hik m i A bi pimii. Th miv mll hk, bi b , m ih B, pimii. H m h ill b hipimim? I h h m ill mv m bm b. Th m i hi h l iv mllv hk. C hi ll b i pipi ll-bl i?

Th i bh ! Th m mll iiilib hv mill i m. M h im, h iiil ih b mll mb m A B, p v . B ill, h ill b h m m ill p ih B.

Thi i iil plimk h ll hl ii i ivi h ill mk livl mllpibl h, ih miiml ik.

Sm i h bhvi ifh h bh robustragile. Th k . M

16. Thill , iv h h h m h l biil i p li, b h h hi vihil mll.


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n squared 25

h im, h m i b mll ib h p v . B ill, h m i il,

vlbl xl h m i hk h ll i ibl i. Th ppi p bh ili ppii plimk.

Fi 2 bl h h l 300 p li h ml, h iibi h ppi ll h vll ih m A B.

Fi 2

Number

ofcascades

Size of cascade (%)

N: Th i i h p ll vll ihi mA B. Th i p i b 4 p pi, h h h bm xi 0 p i 4 p , h x 8 p .

O h l 300 li, h l h xi iih m hm i pil h bm

xi h h . Th l b h h m 130 i h l 300, h pihi B mll (i h 0 4 p ih hv pl h ). Nx, l ixli h j 48 p ih, j v h812 p ih . S, m mll h iiil ib h m h


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ih B p v . Th m i b.B i h h v l ,

pphi 100 p ll . I i h at the sametimepill il. Ai hi h iil implii plimk h ll ik v.

Th m bli v hi impl vi h W ml. B i implii pli, i imh k m, bh ibi xii.I h l p i hi lik h m i

i h ml, iipi h imp h i plibm xml il. Th mm l likb h i v i vl imp i bk.O , i l hk mii h m h hl ll m h iiil ih m A B,b ii h vl m l b l. B, ll, mll ib hv mi .

I m , hi i plimk. A iblpli im i l, h i h mb mk.A pli im i h, hih l b l-hi x i i l i mh h hlh i, ii vii.17 N, hiv bi i i mki, i b il i h

h pli h bi , h i l h bhvi lmb ppl. Nudge plus networks m h i hvm i, lbi imp, h k f, l mll mb ppl b , h mb h vll h hi bhvi lb m.

Thi p pill h i i h bili

pli m. B i k l, hi l l-. Spp m iivil ii b l hi bhvi i h

17. A i l illi h pill v m h pli i h -il bhvi b iivil i iv i J A F Cli. Tx, i mpi mki ii, iAmericanEconomic Review, 96, 10131028, 2006.


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n squared 27

i. Th ppi h h hii i ppl mih i h, hh h k ,

bm m bb p mpll m bhvi.

A mi xmpl i iv i Bill B iibkAmong the Thugs .18 Alhh h bk i pimil bh ivii pp, i i l p fi h . C xmpl k m. A lli iivil bm

pil h h bhvi h iivil bmm l if b h bhvi h h bh imi iiv h h m iivil.

I Sii i h 1990 Wl Cp, h Elihpp hi vil pi. O vii Clii, l mb h i h . Fi hm h pli. Vi iivil m mp i h i lliv i ih ; h h i b h ppl i k pl. B i p h i pil h, pli pi hipil i h i. Th Elih pp immil b pp k h pli. Th i i hm i i, pvk xl h ppii h k .

M ll, k m bi pblm hi m mi imp. Wh k h i k? A h? A l pli vli i i pi lil i h pil imp k. B i h ii, i h i

hm mili l. A l m mi b , b b imii h k. Th ik i h b miklib plimk l pl h imil plil il i i x.

18. B B.Among the Thugs: The Experience, and the Seduction, o Crowd Violence.WW N C 1992.


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Ev iii h iiil b vh i k m. Blk M 19 Ob 1987

i pi xmpl. Sl, ppl ixplibl,k mk h l h. Th D J ll - i i vl, h l il ll i ii hi. Vi hv b iv xpli hhpp b, v l, h i .T k mk iv l mb pilhk i h m imi, hh b h

vll m, pil m, h i h .Eh pi imi h h pil i l. F . F h m p, h ib ib h b h k. Ev , h mpv il.

Th m pibl mi i,b h iml pii K, h v pimim pimim h ih p i hm, pl . Nk ml m il i i, pill hivlvi il h.19

A h pblm plimk, hh i h pbli piv , i h hi i l pl . I k imp mih b , i mml hh pli xpi mll l l iiil . F xmpl, php hm pl b il i hi h lh NCk i 1985. I h l 1980, Ck li pii i h ik mk ll bi mi b Ppi. Thl bil ll i Ppi Chll mpi, bli

m i p C-Cl. O ,Ppi m b ii h . A miv h, C Cl p b ihi i p

19. S, xmpl P Om. Imi h iibi mi i i pili mi, i Physica A 341: 55668, 2004 A Hl ph Rhiki h Fiil Nk. hp://.bkl..k/pblii/ph/2009/ph386.p


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n squared 29

ii N Ck. Wihi mh hi ih h l b -i, b l h llp.

Th m h il N Ck.Ubl impl --mh m pilm. Th W ml b lv h mp m im lik. B l v pilli i l li. I hi , i i hih h pil i. Dpi ll C-Cl miv h b h lh ivi h pil N Ck,

i h pl hi h mp pmi, i il.

Scale-free networks

W hv l m l implii plimk i k l, b h pil ml ill h pi b k i hih m. A , hi i bl mpi i m im b i ppl i v x.

I h l 1990, p pimili, ili phii l b iivil hi xl

. Th l pblih i Nature, h lli ii jl.20 Th h m pplhv l xl p, b h mll mb hvh v h. Php pii. B h liili h pp i i h h hp h ll f l ivp k ll l- ( hih

i ).21

Sh k imp i h l i, m hm l ppximi h l-

20. F Lilj, C Eli, L Aml, H Sl Y b. Th b hmxl , i Nature, 411, 907908, 2001.

21. I hl l h Wikipi hp://.ikipi./iki/Sl-_k


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p hv b iv i h hm l. Th WlWi Wb, xmpl, h h ppi. A i iv

miv mb hi hil m i v .Th p iv h b i h ppl mi

h Mllm Glll pblih The Tipping Pointi 2000.22Hihl hv m pil ifi pi bhvi h k. I, hli h p i Ami mki il i h k ifil.

Cil, i m h W ml, i h k i m b l-, pi h hb ih l mb i ih m A Bmk bi i h vl m. Th hv hpi if m h iivil. B h h l mb , h h, xmpl, hm bi h h ilp i v hih.

Sh k mih b imp i h p ili bli, h mll mb himiiivil mih b iiv i pi h p hivi. F xmpl, h Ch h i h hih ,h mj hll Chli hx lm h , iv b k hihl iivil, hperecti. Th Dmii i pl i h h Iiii p h b p ki i h h.23

F plimk, hi p k i p bh ppi hll. I h l k ii ppximl imil l- , h h k

pi, i ppl p i bhvi, mki hi, i m mh i i m h hb

22. M Glll. The Tipping Point: how little things can make a big diference.Lil B 2000.

23. S, xmpl, A Rh. The Devils World: Heresy and Society 1100 1300.Lm, 2001 A Rh P Om. Th mivl iiii: l-k h ppi h, i Physica A, 339, 64552, 2004.


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if. Th mll l i mh m lik vlppi i i. A ll hv livl mll mb

i, i X i Y Y Z, h h X bi Z p hih. Th iil i h, hil - h l mb i, m hv l i h h m m hi immi li. B h iivilm b v h ii i pi h h hb l- k, pil b h hmlv

iiih b hvi l mb i.

Understanding network structures

Rm, l-, mll-l; h h k hb h xi i x. B k h x k b vbi hik mih hv m i h pli h i k m?

Cil, i hlp i mpl pi b bi. ThFmihm H S i l-m, i ivl i h Fmihm, Mh.

Th b i 1948 ih 5,209 l bj i i hi i piip. Nl , h b ll imi h il k hlv iivil. Nihl Chiki Jm Fl Hv Mil Shl h Pliil Si pm S Di l h il imi h k il bh h i i mki

v im h p bi.24

F xmpl, h h p bmi b b 57 p i h hh i h bm b.

24. N Chiki J Fl. Th p bi i l il kv 32 , i New England Journal o Medicine, 357, 370379, 2007; Thlliv mi mki i l il k, i New England Journalo Medicine, 358, 22492258, 2008.


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n squared 33

I pi l hv imi bh pi h lihip. A i h

ih il i, h i m pil plimki, hv l ppximi. Th i hl-hi v h mbi ih h mmp-i mhl b mlli bl bl im h p k hih i lv i iv x.

Wih G Wilhi, I l pblih il bi

iki i h UK.25 Th i ibl li hi,m hih l h pil l p pi h pi i i bi iki. Th i mprima acievi h il k impi hi ivi (Tbl 1).

Tbl 1

Proportion of friends thought

to be binge drinkers

Percentage for

binge drinkers

Percentage for

non-binge drinkers

All lm ll 54 17

M 31 24

Sm 12 36

Hl 3 22

S: Om Wilhi, 2009. Op cit.

Th i ll mi i b h pivbhvi h i h ii bi ik h h . I l b h impl

mi h xi i m ih h mi i xi. B i l b i, h l, i l mb ppl h li i ipl h h bi ik,

25. P Om G Wilhi. Bi iki h UK: il kphm, i Mind and Society, 8, 135152, 2009. Dil h v b .plm.m.


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h h hpp h i ihipk. S hil h xi i m

ihip k i hill m, i m m likl xpli.26

Th imp pi h i h plimk b ppli ih h ll il k i bpvi ih imi i i ml .

A i xmpl i iv b i h b l, h imp/xp i b h vi

i h l. Sh i ii j hi iii imp, b b h p il i ll h p f bi.27 Th m ll i b ,h m likl i i h il ii ill pb hm.

Di bill- lihip xpli mll i h imp h mi hk iii i iv hv h , hih i m i i- p. A k li h l b b h p iil- ii,hih i l bill- i lik.

A i hi k j pviimi plimk b h hk mih ,i i pl hiki b h , , ii bi, plii i h vlpi i h vlp l. Th bl i m h ibi . B pil b mih b h i, xmpl, l bm l likl p.

T mk m iv plii, hv mi h k h bi i

26. Th mlli hi m h k i xpli hi h i i bi iki.

27. F xmpl, M B B Eih. Ci N Th: Wh Lm h L E Fiil Glblii, i National Bureau o Economic ResearchWorking Paper8716, 2002 B Eih, A R C Wpl. CiC Ci, i National Bureau o Economic Research Working Paper5681, 1996.


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n squared 35

iv x. H b mpli ip ibl x hi. P i bi m

i i ppximi b , mim h bi livl mll m imi h lixmpl bi iki ill.

Nudge plus networks

Th p i h i i bh i h pbli piv . Th m lii vi bhvi hihi , mp h h lil mi mpi il ii-mk, il pvi pilbi m iv plimki. B i i ihi pblm.

Th h i bhvil mi miphl, hih pph , hh hv b h p h i h hi ivl m bhvil ii-mki. Smlii imil x mih b pibl,b h m p i i l i iim. S h i i i hh hv h

i bhvi i iv im.M impl, k ih mimill h imp plii, mki h h , ivi h impi h h pli h il, v p pl mvm h i hii h pli. I h, k . Ni pvi pill vlbl iih h

iiil k i k i pil ii,b h h k k v.Th im i hih h li pph

ill h i. I mvi m mk, xmpl, i i bl m h p x li h bhvi h m h p.


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Hv, h i ih i b h imp pli i l i hih k imp, hih

m lv vm. I hi , h li mh m lik h vii il b Hk h i ih Fim h Chi hl il i mk. Th l h mh m i mm ihh l h l pl, h i piipl vhii kbl.

Thi i mbl l h plimk. B i

i h l i h l ll . Ii k m h ih h m ml, piv m m, ih b h hi--mi h vi h p ix- h.

O pibl implii b m h kvi h l i h lil hi hl b , h h hv lil i h vl ii pil pli. F m i.

Th RSA Sil Bi pj h xpl himplii iivil bi m hi iiv ili. El i ii h ivi pplh l h hi bi, bhvi vim i hlp hm mk b ii kl hbi lik mki, bi-iki vi.28Th m ki i b k b k ill im h RSA k h l ilpil i bii b h i piv mmii.29I i bl h i k h hppl bhvi if mp ppl mk i b hi.

I ii, hi k hi h mphi il k h j h i pbli pli, b h hl hik b il. Sil k imp; i

28. M Gi. Op cit.29. S h RSA C Cmmii pj. .h./pj/

-mmii


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n squared 37

i hm mk ii ibi ppii ivi pi ( livi h Bi Si vii)

mi pbli pli l. B h l mplx h h p i pibl. Tiil pliivi b l l xpiv im livl mil impvm i m. Th k miimi ik hh m li, i bili. Th i h hii il k ivi, hih ill il hv

pi l, b h ill mll iviill hv mj imp hh i .

Wh i m mp hll limh, xmpl i m l h ill i mi m bhvi h. W likl i impl iiv b pph b hi h p k. Kl Mx ml Philph hv h ip hl. Th pi, hv, i h i. H mpll. Pliii hv h h h l. Th pi ih h ip i l. Th pil i mm iv plii bil b ii i h h l p m.


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RSA pamphlets

Thi i h hi i i h h h RSA ill b pblihi v hmi mh hih ill xplh p -

lihm. Th RSA i i ii i h mplx likb h . Wih hi i mi, hv mmii i mli hik pii, lki l h hi h h libhi h i - lihm, b l h pilimplii h hi m m .

F pmphl ill i ili h - lihm pphm b h pphi hmk, mi ibili, h l h plm pl.

All pmphl ill b vilbl li www.theRSA.org l lmi m Fll h :

[email protected]


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8 Joh Adam Strt

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