How to solve London’s air quality crisis Richard Howard, Policy Exchange 11 th October 2016
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How to solve London’s air quality crisis
Richard Howard, Policy Exchange
11th October 2016
About me
• Head of Environment & Energy Unit
• Policy Exchange – Westminster-based think tank (policyexchange.org.uk)
Policy Context
Health Impact
• PM2.5: aggravates respiratory / cardiovascular conditions, increases risk of death
• NO2: lung irritation, exacerbates asthma, increases risk of respiratory infections
• Mortality impact of PM2.5 & NO2 in 2010– 141,000 life years lost
– Equivalent to 9,400 deaths
– Reduce life expectancy by 2 years (9 months for PM2.5, and 15 months for NO2)
NO2 concentrations
• 12% of London (292 sq km) exceeded NO2 limit in 2010
• Area contains 328,000 schoolchildren (25%)
• & 3.8 million workers (44%)
Recent trends
• NO2: Inner London Roadside concentrations static since 2000 at average of ~60μg/m3
• PM10: Gradual improvement since 2004
Why the lack of progress on NO2?
• Dieselisation of fleet
– 10.7 m diesel cars on road in GB in 2014 (up from 1.6 m in 1994). 50% new car sales are diesel.
– 96% of vans are diesels
– Diesels emit far higher levels of NOx/PM than petrol
Why the lack of progress on NO2?
• Failure of vehicle emission standards– Diesels failed to
perform to Euro standards in practice
– Euro 5 diesels no better than Euro 1 for NOx
– Euro 5 & 6 diesels are x6 above NOx standard (not a single car achieved the standard in DfT tests)
Source of NOx emissions (2010 data)
Current / planned policies
• Vehicle charging: Congestion Charge Zone, Low Emission Zone, and Ultra Low Emission Zone (from 2020)
• Cabs: age limit, Zero emission from 2018• Buses: retrofitting, replacement, hybrids• Public transport: Crossrail, cycling, electrification of rail• Planning: ‘Air Quality Neutral’ development, construction
and demolition guidelines• Energy: Biomass & CHP standards, energy efficiency
programmes• Construction vehicles: NRMM regulations• Mayor’s Clean Air Fund & Low Emission Neighbourhoods
Air quality projections
• In absence of further intervention…
• 2% of London (42 sq km) over NO2 limit in 2025
PX proposals
Impact of PX proposals
• Achieve NO2
compliance in 99.9% of London
• +1 month life expectancy
• Further action on bus/ HGVs required
Sadiq Khan’s proposals
• Implement T-Charge in CCZ area from 2017
• Bring forward ULEZ implementation to 2019 (Central London)
• Extend ULEZ – possibly to North-South Circular
• Euro VI for HGVs across London from 2020
• Diesel scrappage scheme
• Work on national / international policies
• TfL buses to reach Euro VI by 2019 in ULEZ
• Clean bus corridors
• Retrofit 3,000 buses outside central zone
• Purchase only zero-emission buses from 2018
Impact of Brexit…
• UK Air Quality legislation mainly stems from EU Directives
• Brexit creates uncertainty over policy direction
• …and enforcement
• AQ legislation remains in force in short term
• Strong rationale for retaining Air Quality legislation on health grounds
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