WeaGETS : A daily stochastic weather generator for preserving low- frequency of climate variability Roque Vinicio Céspedes May 3, 2013 MPO 524 - Applied Data Analysis Spring 2013 Term Project Professor Brian Mapes
Roque Vinicio Céspedes May 3, 2013 MPO 524 - Applied Data Analysis Spring 2013 Term Project Professor Brian Mapes.
Mar 28, 2015
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WeaGETS:
A daily stochastic weather generator for preserving low-frequency of climate
variabilityRoque Vinicio Céspedes
May 3, 2013
MPO 524 - Applied Data AnalysisSpring 2013 Term Project
Professor Brian Mapes
Outline What is a daily stochastic weather generator?
Motivations Application to modeling and climate change
What is WeaGETS? Weather Generator École de Technologie
Supérieure (WeaGETS) My own results
http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/29136-stochastic-weather-generator-weagets
What is a daily stochastic weather generator?
What is WeaGETS? Weather Generator École de Technologie
Supérieure (WeaGETS) is a Matlab-based versatile stochastic daily weather generator (WeaGETS) for producing time series of unlimited length for daily precipitation at a specific weather station site, plus maximum and minimum temperatures.
WeaGETS can be used in climate change studies as a downscaling tool by perturbing the parameters to account for expected changes in precipitation and temperature.
What is WeaGETS? First, second and third-order Markov models are
provided to generate precipitation occurrence. Exponential and gamma distributions are available
to produce daily precipitation quantity. Precipitation generating parameters have options
to be smoothed using Fourier harmonics. A spectral correction approach is included to
correct the well-known underestimation of monthly and inter-annual variability associated with weather generators.
What is WeaGETS?
My Data National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 0.25 0.25 Daily U.S. UNIFIED Precipitation Version 1 (1951-2000) rain-gauge-based precipitation
-88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -7824
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Florida RainfallWhole State - 25th Year
Month of the Year
7-D
ay
Ru
nn
ing
Me
an
(m
m /
da
y)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CPC Obs. (1975)GeneratedCorrected
Florida RainfallWhole State
50-Year Mean Seasonal Cycle
Month of the Year
7-D
ay
Ru
nn
ing
Me
an
(m
m /
da
y)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CPC Obs. (1951-2000)GeneratedCorrected
Florida RainfallWhole State
50-Year Standard Deviation
Month of the Year
7-D
ay
Ru
nn
ing
Me
an
(m
m /
da
y)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
CPC Obs. (1951-2000)GeneratedCorrected
CPC Obs. (1951-2000)
J F M A M J J A S O N D1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Generated
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Corrected
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CPC Obs. (1951-2000)
Precipitation Amount (mm / day)
Fre
quen
cy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
First Generated 50 Years
Precipitation Amount (mm / day)
Fre
quen
cy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
First Correted 50 Years
Precipitation Amount (mm / day)
Fre
quen
cy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Thank you everybody!!!Any question???
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