GMAFCANON00190 TM @P8_4ward #FeedThe9 Roger Cady
GMAFCANON00190
TM
@P8_4ward #FeedThe9
Roger Cady
GMAFCANON00190
…Changing the Context
The Evolution…
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POPULATION
ONE HEALTHProteinMissingIngredient
Protein, Paleo, Atkins Carbs, sugar
1st World Diet Changing
Realities: Increased Protein Demand
9.7 BILLIONby 2050
60% INCREASEin animal protein
3.6 BILLIONmiddle class
Reality #1: 60% protein increase
MIDDLE CLASS
Innovation Choice Access
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Projected Vs Actual Protein Demand
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MM
T (
Milk
bas
ed
on
So
lids
Equ
ival
ent
)
Forecast Consumption (MMT) Realized Consumption (MMT)
Reality
Expected
Sources: FAO, 2012, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, Tables 3.4 & 3.5, pp. 74-75
Reality #1: 60% protein increase
Demand for bridge protein exceeding projections by about 7%.
}
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Comparative YOY Global Population and Land Based Animal Protein Production Growth Rates
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YOY
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Population Aggregate Animal Protein Production Protein Growth Rate Trend
Sources: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, & U.S. Census Bureau International Database, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.phpboth accessed 13Oct15
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2013 Global Land Based Animal Protein Sources
Animal Protein Source
23%
22%
22%
15%
14%
3% 0% 1%
Pork
Poultry
Milk Solids
Eggs
Beef
Ovine
Wild Game
Other
5 Major Proteins
92%
100%
95%
88%
83%
88%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Chicken Eggs as % All Eggs
Pig as % of Pork
Cattle as % of Beef
Chicken as % of Poultry
Cattle Milk as % of All Milk
Combined as % of All Sources
Source: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, accessed 13Oct15
By 2050, we will need 43% more beef
28.7 million metric tonnes
31.6 million tons
66.7 million metric tonnes
73.5 million tons
95.2 million metric tonnes
104.9 million tons
(mill
ion
me
tric
to
nn
es o
f b
ee
f) 95.2
66.7
28.7
Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
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©2015, Elanco Animal Health, a division of Eli Lilly and Company
Today’s Landscape
Health and Nutrition
Challenges
1 in 3
Growing Population 20% Lost to Disease Environmental
Pressure
Get the wrong nutrition Overusing natural resources
1.6 planetsIncrease in demand
60% 20%Lost to disease
Idle AnimalsResources used to raise or maintain cattle
and water buffalo are affected by the
number of idle animals in the global herd.
Idle animals are cattle or water buffalo that
are not growing, not producing dairy, not
pregnant and not being used for draft work.
Farmers and ranchers may choose to
maintain idle cattle for reasons beyond
beef production, including breeding stock
potential, cultural beliefs or socio-economic
factors.
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Annual Environmental Consequence of Adding One More Milking Cow
• For survival nutrition (maintenance) of the cow, her heifer replacement and part of a bull required to breed her
• Does not include the nutritional requirements for the milk production; that is a constant regardless of number of cows
• Range due primarily to size of the cow• Summary
– Feed: +10 to 12.5 MT– Land: +2.1 to 2.2 acres– Water for animal consumption: +233,000 to 423,000 gal
• Equivalent to 0.40 to 0.75 U.S. Households
– Greenhouse gas emission (GHG): +8.7 to 12.8 MT• Equivalent to 1.8 to 2.7 automobiles
– Manure production: +12.2 to 20.4 MT• Equivalent to sewage from 75 to 110 people
Source: 2012, Capper, J.L. & R.A. Cady, J. Dairy Sci.
Cultural ConsiderationsIn India, many people regard cows as sacred animals and do not raise cattle for beef consumption.
Instead, some cattle may roam freely with minimal human intervention and could live for 10 years to 15 years.
In these regions, improving beef production may need to be more specific to water buffalo.
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Climate volatility is increasing
animal disease challenges
Global Animal Health is DynamicReality #3: Disease Challenges
3 in 4 cattle fight respiratory disease
1 in 4 dairy cows face mastitis
9 in 10 chickens exposed to coccidiosis
1 in 3 pig herds
experience ileitis
Constant Health Challenge Emerging Diseases New Threats
Caution: Prevention and Therapeutic Needs Critical. Don’t set dates to remove solutions
without alternatives.
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One HealthHealthy Animals, Healthy People, Healthy Planet
Less animals Less diseaseLess environmental
impact Less “noise”
Implications
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Meat Milk Energy Control
Incre
ase in E
nd o
f Term
Test
Score
s
The Importance of Meat, Milk and Eggs(Over 5 School Terms)
Neumann, C.G. et al. “Meat Supplementation Improves Growth, Cognitive, and Behavioral Outcomes in Kenyan Children.” Journal of Nutrition, 2007.
When diets are supplemented with meat or milk, learning and test scores improve.
Quality of nutrients versus just quantity of calories matter.
Why meat matters
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Considerations for Improving Beef ProductionFarming best practices and innovations can contribute to the improved efficiency of global beef production.
When discussing beef production, we must also consider a variety of factors that influence how farmers and ranchers assess the value of cattle and water buffalo, including idle animals, cultural differences, and social and economic considerations.
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We can freeze the footprint with innovation
Without ANY innovationWithout ANY innovation
1961 2010 2050 1961 2010 2050
Without ANY innovation
1961 2010 2050
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Global Average vs Best in ClassProtein production index globally
Pork: 40 more lbs in 70 less days
Chicken: 2.2 lbs. in half the time Eggs: 185/hen/yr vs. 270/hen/yr
Beef: 2 years vs 5 years to maturity
+ 2.2 lbs
Milk: 2 gallons vs 8 gallons
2 gallons8 gallons
2 years5 years
+40 lbs
+85 eggs
Knapp, J. and Cady, R. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Food Forward Report. 2013.
We can feed significantly more people with less animals by increasing the global average.
Better
Housing
Nutritional
Advances
Contributing factors for continued improvement in cattle and
water buffalo health and growth
Genetic Selection
& Breeding Practices
Improved Animal
Health Practices
Meeting the Demand for Beef
How can innovation help beef production?
Improved, year-round nutrition combined with other farming best practices
can help cattle and water buffalo grow more efficiently.
Typical Global Steer GrowthMinimal Use of Farming Best Practices
5 years to reach maturity
260 kg(573 lb) of bone-in beef
26.2 kg (57.8 lb) of feed per kilogram of beef
Optimal Steer GrowthImproved Use of Farming Best Practices
2 years to reach maturity330 kg (727.5 lb) of bone-in beef
13.3 kg (29.3lb) of feed per kilogram of beef
2 Years5 Years
Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
1.7Billion
Cattle &
Water
Buffalo
2050Continued Innovation
How many cattle & water buffalo will
we need?
2.38Billion
Cattle &
Water
Buffalo
2050Frozen Innovation
To produce enough beef to meet demand in 2050, we can raise more
cattle and water buffalo, and use more resources.
Or we can improve how cattle and water buffalo are raised so that
they produce more beef more efficiently.
1.68Billion
Cattle &
Water
Buffalo
2010
Or will we use innovation to
improve efficiency? With continued innovation, we can produce 43% more beef with
fewer than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo. More importantly, we can
freeze the environmental footprint of beef production!
Grazed Forage: Water:
2010 2050Frozen Innovation
2050Continued Innovation
2010 2050Frozen Innovation
2050Continued Innovation
13.1Billion
Metric
Tonnes
18.7Billion
Metric Tonnes
5.76Trillion
Liters
8.23Trillion
Liters
5.76Trillion
Liters
Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
13.1Billion
Metric
Tonnes
14.4 billion tons 20.6 billion tons 14.4 billion tons 1.52 trillion gallons 2.16 trillion gallons 1.52 trillion gallons
>Grazed Forage Savings
5.6 billion metric tonnes saved
6.2 billion tons saved
More beef. Real resource savings. 43% more beef with less than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo in 2050*
Water Savings
2.48 trillion liters saved
655 billion gallons saved
=43% less forage
and grazing
land= 43% less water
*Savings are based on comparison of frozen innovation in 2050
versus continued improvements in the use of innovation in 2050 Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
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Balancing Innovation and Choice
We must deliver new innovation that customers embrace without jeopardizing the health of the animal.
Productivity is part of the solution. Not more animals
Global productivity is plateauing
We can’t remove asafe solution without an alternative
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28
8 Point Plan Recap
Act with responsibility globally.
Cease marketing of growth promotion
uses for shared-class antibiotics by the end
of 2016.
Help customers eliminate continuous
use of shared-class antibiotics for therapy
purposes by providing an alternative.
Eliminate over-the-counter sales of
shared-class antibiotics where oversight
exists.
Eliminate concurrent use of shared-class
antibiotics to treat the same disease.
Support veterinary oversight,
including helping build infrastructure
globally.
Develop new animal-only antibiotics.
Create alternatives. Invest in non-antibiotic
solutions where there are few, or no,
alternatives to shared-class antibiotics.
Social & Economic ConsiderationsIn some regions, socio-economic and political factors limit access to and trust in banking systems that are common in developed countries.
Families may purchase and maintain cattle and other livestock for many years as a way to save money instead of keeping cash.
Cattle or their calves may then be traded or sold as needed.
Improving beef production may be secondary to helping improve the socio-economic and political landscape.
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Population growth
exceeding expectations
Resource use
is accelerating
Threats to animal health
are increasing
The Solutions
Our New Realities
Implications
AnimalsDiseaseResourcesNoise
Less
Innovation Choice Access Nutrition
Mega Forces>Consumer Noise
Realities
Pathway to a Food Secure Future
Health Benefits of Beef." Beef Bytes #1. National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Accessed Oct. 16,, 2014
Beef is a good source of iron,
B12 and protein.
Cattle and water buffalo
consume grasses and plant
matter humans cannot
digest, and graze on land
that cannot be cultivated for
human foods.
Benefits of Beef
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TM
#FeedThe9
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