Roads & Transit Roads & Transit 2007 2007 A Smart Joint Program? A Smart Joint Program? Financial Considerations As of April 15, 2007
Dec 24, 2015
Roads & Transit 2007Roads & Transit 2007A Smart Joint Program?A Smart Joint Program?
Financial Considerations
As of April 15, 2007
2
Roads & Transit 2007Currently FundedSound Move Rail
Currently Funded Road Projects
$9.3 billion RTID*Road Program$18.3 billion ST2*Transit Program
This is the comprehensive mapbeing put forward to voters. But let’s break it down into the proposed NEW tax programs.
* Capital costs only.
Tacoma
LakewoodMcCord
AFB
Fort LewisOrting
U of WOverlake
RedmondNorthgate
Shoreline
Edmonds
Woodinville
Lynnwood
Kirkland
Bothell
MonroeMukilteo
LakeStevens
Marysville
Everett
Seattle
Puyallup
Sumner
Auburn
Kent
FederalWay
SeaTac
Tukwila
RainierValley
MercerIsland
Renton
First Hill
CapitalHill
Burien
Issaquah
Bellevue
Arlington
167
167
410
162
161
518
7
509
16
18
509
5
5
405
5
522
520
99
99
405
90
2
522
531
9
5
The ST2 “MaximumRail” Program merelyextends light rail as an overlay of the bestserved express bus routes in the region.
524
This is the $28 billionRoads & Transit Packagecoming in November
Eliminate Currently Funded Rail Projects Eliminate Currently Funded Road Projects
Now Eliminate the RTIDprojects that addressroad congestion
33
Program Capital CostsProgram Capital Costs
RTIDRTID – Original Plan - $18 billion (YOE$)Original Plan - $18 billion (YOE$)
But transit proponents called for a “balanced” Roads and But transit proponents called for a “balanced” Roads and Transit program”Transit program”
– Current Reduced Capital Plan - Current Reduced Capital Plan - $9.3 billion$9.3 billion (YOE$) (YOE$)– Being Shown to Voters as Being Shown to Voters as $6.7 billion$6.7 billion (2006$) (2006$)
ST2ST2– Original Plan Expectation - $9.4 Billion (YOE$)Original Plan Expectation - $9.4 Billion (YOE$)– Current Expanded Plan - Current Expanded Plan - $18.3 billion$18.3 billion (YOE$) (YOE$)– Being shown to Voters as Being shown to Voters as $9.8 billion$9.8 billion (2006$) (2006$)
But These are only the Program Capital Costs
44
YOE$ vs 2006$YOE$ vs 2006$
YOE$ = Project costs inflated to “Year of YOE$ = Project costs inflated to “Year of Expenditure” – the true costs of projectsExpenditure” – the true costs of projects
All highway Mega-project Cost EstimatesAll highway Mega-project Cost Estimatesare being disclosed in YOE$are being disclosed in YOE$
The RTID Financial Plan was Disclosed in January The RTID Financial Plan was Disclosed in January 2007 in terms of actual future Revenue & Expense2007 in terms of actual future Revenue & Expense
Enter: Apple to Orange comparison to make Enter: Apple to Orange comparison to make program costs appear lowerprogram costs appear lower
Sound Transit has influenced the RTID to publicize Sound Transit has influenced the RTID to publicize revenues and costs in terms of 2006$revenues and costs in terms of 2006$
So we are now comparing RTID and ST2 in 2006$ to So we are now comparing RTID and ST2 in 2006$ to our knowledge of Road Projects in YOE$our knowledge of Road Projects in YOE$
55
RTID Financial SummaryRTID Financial Summary
Revenues Taxes $7,900* Bonds 6,240 Other 190 Total $14,330
Expenses Projects $9,280** Finance 4,945 Other 105 Total $14,330
** Being publicized as $6.7 billion.
2008 thru 2027 Post 2027 Debt Service
Remaining Debt Service:Bond Principal - $5,750Bond Interest - $4,200Debt Balance - $9,950Total Tax Collection = $7,900+9,950 = $17,850
Total Program CostThru 2027 - $14,330Interest Bal - $4,200
Grand Total - $18,530
YOE $millions
* Being publicized as $4.7 billion. In effect, half of the programCost is for bond interest.
Source: RTID, January 26, 2007
66
What Does East King Get?What Does East King Get?
$1.1b for I-405 expansion from Renton to Bellevue$1.1b for I-405 expansion from Renton to Bellevue
$380m for I-405/SR-167 HOV Ramp System$380m for I-405/SR-167 HOV Ramp System
$550m to apply to the East King half of the $4.4 billion $550m to apply to the East King half of the $4.4 billion SR-520 Bridge Replacement ProjectSR-520 Bridge Replacement Project
The.. the.. the.. That’s all Folks!The.. the.. the.. That’s all Folks!– $2 billion out of the $18.5 billion RTID$2 billion out of the $18.5 billion RTID
Leaves SR-520 Trans-lake only half fundedLeaves SR-520 Trans-lake only half funded
Does nothing to resolve the SR-520 Redmond MessDoes nothing to resolve the SR-520 Redmond Mess
Leaves I-405 Expansion only half fundedLeaves I-405 Expansion only half funded
Leaves I-5 overloads diverted to I-405Leaves I-5 overloads diverted to I-405
Out of the $18.5 billion RTID Program Ultimate Cost
77
ST2 “Maximized Rail Extension”ST2 “Maximized Rail Extension”
Central Link -- 95% of Capital ProgramCentral Link -- 95% of Capital Program– Extends Link north to Lynnwood, south to Tacoma,Extends Link north to Lynnwood, south to Tacoma,
and east to Bellevue/Overlake – 42 milesand east to Bellevue/Overlake – 42 miles– Adds Rail Streetcar from downtown Seattle to Capital Hill StationAdds Rail Streetcar from downtown Seattle to Capital Hill Station
(Included to compensate for loss of First Hill rail station)(Included to compensate for loss of First Hill rail station)
Sounder -- 2% of Capital ProgramSounder -- 2% of Capital Program– 7 New stations and parking garages/expansions7 New stations and parking garages/expansions
Regional Express -- 3% of Capital ProgramRegional Express -- 3% of Capital Program– Parking Garages in Kenmore and BothellParking Garages in Kenmore and Bothell– Parking Garages at South Kirkland and RentonParking Garages at South Kirkland and Renton– REx Bus Fleet expansion (included in Phase I Fin Plan)REx Bus Fleet expansion (included in Phase I Fin Plan)
The ST-Preferred Capital Program Scenario
88
Losses to Regional ExpressLosses to Regional Express
As of January 2005 there were 80+ projects proposed by As of January 2005 there were 80+ projects proposed by ST member jurisdictions for ST2ST member jurisdictions for ST2
Included were 33 projects to enhance the Phase I Regional Included were 33 projects to enhance the Phase I Regional Express (REx) bus systemExpress (REx) bus system
16 of the REx projects were for East King16 of the REx projects were for East King– A significant enhancement of REx/BRT in the I-405 CorridorA significant enhancement of REx/BRT in the I-405 Corridor– 6 HOV lane access ramp systems and flyer stops6 HOV lane access ramp systems and flyer stops– BAT lanes on SR-522BAT lanes on SR-522
The $1.8 billion for East King REx projects could have The $1.8 billion for East King REx projects could have been financed by existing Phase I taxesbeen financed by existing Phase I taxes
All but 4 of the 33 REx projects were eliminated in All but 4 of the 33 REx projects were eliminated in the push to Maximize Rail Extensionsthe push to Maximize Rail Extensions
99
ST2 Financial SummaryST2 Financial Summary
Revenues ST1 Taxes $2,200 ST2 Taxes $11,700* Bonds 9,800 Grants/Other 1,300 Total $25,000
Expenses Projects $17,300** Admin/O&M 1,500 Finance 5,600 Other 600 Total $25,000
** Being publicized as $9.8 billion.
2008 thru 2027 2028 thru 2057
Remaining Debt Service:Bond Principal - $9,300Bond Interest - $10,200Debt Balance - $19,500
Total Program CostThru 2027 - $25,000Interest Bal - $10,200
Grand Total - $35,200Plus Post-2027 O&M
YOE $millions
* Being publicized as $7.5 billion.Source: MacIsaac estimate based onlimited financial info disclosed by ST.
To be paid by post-2027tax collections.
1010
Roads & Transit Sum thru 2027Roads & Transit Sum thru 2027
Revenues RTID ST2 Combined Taxes $7.9 $13.9 $21.8* Bonds 6.2 9.8 16.0 Grants/Other 0.2 1.3 1.5 Total $14.3 $25.0 $39.3
Expenses Projects $9.3 $17.3 $26.6** Finance Cost 4.9 5.6 10.5 O&M/Other 1.0 2.1 2.2 Total $14.3 $25.0 $39.3
YOE $billions Thru 2027
* Publicized as $12.2 billion.
** Publicized as $16.5 billion.Plus $29.5 billion of DebtService remaining after 2027
1111
ST2 Benefits?ST2 Benefits? ST2 is merely a rail overlay of the already best-ST2 is merely a rail overlay of the already best-
served Seattle-centric express bus transit routesserved Seattle-centric express bus transit routes
““It provides an alternative to being stuck in traffic”It provides an alternative to being stuck in traffic”– Does not provide a transit alternative for anyone not Does not provide a transit alternative for anyone not
already served by transitalready served by transit
““ST2 will increase Sound Transit use by ST2 will increase Sound Transit use by 160,000 rides per day by 2030” 160,000 rides per day by 2030”– That represents 1% of the 16 million daily trips by 2030That represents 1% of the 16 million daily trips by 2030– But 60% of those “new” trips on Sound Transit are But 60% of those “new” trips on Sound Transit are
merely raided from the existing bus systemsmerely raided from the existing bus systems
““Rail provides reliable transit service”Rail provides reliable transit service”– So 2% of trips are on time, and 98% are stuck in traffic So 2% of trips are on time, and 98% are stuck in traffic
in cars and buses?in cars and buses?
1212
ST2 - Wrong Plan for East KingST2 - Wrong Plan for East King
Over 90% of all Central Bellevue Over 90% of all Central Bellevue trips come from the Eastside and trips come from the Eastside and via the I-405 corridorvia the I-405 corridor
East Link will merely overlay East Link will merely overlay existing Routes 550 and 545existing Routes 550 and 545to/from downtown Seattleto/from downtown Seattle
ST2 delays for 20-30 years any ST2 delays for 20-30 years any significant improvement of significant improvement of Eastside job access by public Eastside job access by public transittransit
Should we not demand an ST2 Should we not demand an ST2 plan that better serves our plan that better serves our EASTSIDE transportation needs?EASTSIDE transportation needs?
Central Bellevue 2020Travel Patterns
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
5%
4%
CBD1% 20%
13%
9%
7%
4%
8%
17%
7%
6%
29%Internal
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
5%
4%
CBD1% 20%
13%
9%
7%
4%
8%
17%
7%
6%
29%Internal
Source: PSRC2001 MTP Update
End of FinancialEnd of FinancialPresentationPresentation
1414
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
CBD0.3%
5%
15%
10%
6%Internal
SUMMARY:84,800 Person Trips62% - East King Co12% - Seattle/North14% - Snoh Co10% - S King/Pierce2% - Kitsap Co
4%
Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.
4%
15%
9%
5%
23%
14.0
%
9%
30%
7%
2020 Home-Work Person Trips ToCENTRAL BELLEVUE
2020 Home-Work Person Trips ToOVERLAKE / MICROSOFT
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
CBD0.1%
14%
SUMMARY:65,800 Person Trips67% - East King Co7% - Seattle/North
13% - Snoh Co10% - S King/Pierce3% - Kitsap Co
Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.
5%
2%
10%
2%Int
22%9%
23%
16%
6%
21%
1515
2020 Transit Mode Share*2020 Transit Mode Share*
Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Update Assumed full 125-mile LRT Master Plan
Total Person Trips 1998 2020
Seattle CBD 22.3% 37.3%
All of Seattle 9.0% 15.0%
Bellevue CBD 1.3% 3.8%
Overlake (MS) 0.1% 0.6%
All Eastside 0.6% 1.4%
Region 2.7% 4.1%
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40I-4
05 N
orth
T =
1.9%
T = 0.5%
T = 1.2%
T =
1.8%
T = 10.9%
I-90/SR-520
SR-520
I-90 East
I-405
Sou
th
Internal2.1%
1616
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
985,000 External(Regional) Trips/day
80% Inbound20% Outbound
Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.
11%
27%
20%
12%24%
15%
18%4%Seattle
CBD
XX% % Distribution ofExternal Trips
10%
4%
BELLEVUE/OVERLAKE AREA2020 Weekday Person Trip Distribution
T IAZ
51
54
53
45 47
52
4348
3637
55
42
56
5758
60
59
61
82
81
80
39
3532
32 33
31
13
41
21
16
15
1
32
12
11
8
9
27 26
23
225 6
7
1917
18
38
2830
2910
66 69
68
63
67
64
62
70
71
7273
74
75
76
77
78
79
79
34
50
14
83
4 9
425
24
20
46
65
40
24,500 External(Regional) Trips/day
Transit ModeShare = 2.5%
Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.
4%16
%
8%
3%12%
11%
61%*Seattle
CBD
XX% % Distribution ofExternal Trips
24%
33%
4%
10.9%
* 60% carried by Rail, and 40%carried by Express Bus.
xx% Transit mode share
1.8%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
1.3%
2.1%
BELLEVUE/OVERLAKE AREA2020 Weekday Transit Trip Distribution