12-12-2019 1 S Indian Institute of Technology - Delhi Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Programme (TRIPP) The presentation is based on a sponsored project by GoI The results are preliminary. Please do not cite. PROJECT CONSORTIUM PARTNERS ROAD ACCIDENTS COSTING IN INDIA Delhi Integrated Multi Modal Transit System Limited (Joint Venture of Govt. of NCT of Delhi and IDFC Foundation) An ISO 9001, 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 27001 & CMMI L3 Certified Company International Course on Transportation Planning and Safety 05-12 December 2019, IIT Delhi 12 December 2019, IIT Delhi Sourabh B. Paul, IIT Delhi Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA OBJECTIVES To develop a Common Framework that work as a tool to estimate the cost of Road Traffic Accidents To Undertake Estimation of Socio-Economic Costs of Road Accidents in-terms of various cost parameters To provide estimation of cost for each category of road traffic injuries and fatalities 2
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12-12-2019
1
S
Indian Institute of Technology - DelhiTransportation Research and Injury
Prevention Programme (TRIPP)
The presentation is based on a sponsored project by GoI
The results are preliminary. Please do not cite.
PROJECT CONSORTIUM PARTNERS
ROAD ACCIDENTS COSTING IN INDIA
Delhi Integrated Multi Modal Transit System Limited(Joint Venture of Govt. of NCT of Delhi and IDFC Foundation)
An ISO 9001, 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 27001 & CMMI L3 Certified Company
International Course on Transportation Planning and Safety
05-12 December 2019, IIT Delhi
12 December 2019, IIT Delhi
Sourabh B. Paul, IIT Delhi
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
OBJECTIVES
To develop a Common Framework that work as a tool to estimate the cost of Road Traffic
Accidents
To Undertake Estimation of Socio-Economic Costs of Road Accidents in-terms of various
cost parameters
To provide estimation of cost for each category of road traffic injuries and fatalities
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
SOME POLICY QUESTION• MICRO:
• Households – What impact does road accident have on household income?, How mush do people pay for medical and other expenses due to accident related death and injury?
• Firm – What are the impacts of accidents on firm's productivity, profits, and operating costs?
• Government – What proportion of government expenditure could have been saved and utilised in alternatives? What impact do accidents have on the government workforce and government’s efficiency to deliver public services?
• MACRO:
• Society– What impact do road accidents have on GDP and its rate of growth? Social welfare? How much does society pay for medical and other expenses?
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
The Road Accidents impose a huge social and economic cost in terms of
untimely deaths, injuries, disabilities and loss of potential income
1,50,785 persons were killed and 4,94,624 people were injured in 2016 in the
Country (MoRTH 2016).
Estimates by : Global Burden Disease : 2,54,000
Estimates by World Health Organization: 2,99,100
THE CONTEXT
leading cause of DEATH
leading cause of overall HEALTH LOSS.
4th Leading cause of death for the YOUNG ADULTS between 15-49 years
8th9th
(from Public Health Foundation of India-Million Death Study run by the Registrar General of India
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
PREVIOUS ACCIDENT COST STUDIES IN INDIA
RUCS included only a section on Road Accident costs, sponsored by World Bank (1982) :
• The First major Road User Cost Study was published in 1982 based on Delhi city data.
• The costs included were: medical expenses, legal fees, property damage, insurance costs, and loss of
output due to death. The study estimated the cost of the road accidents about 0.29% of GDP (Approx. Rs
• Victims data was collected only from one government hospital (RML Delhi),
which is highly subsidised
• Accident Ratios are highly underestimated
• The “Life Expectancy” of Indians was assumed to be 54 years in RUCS
study, and 62 in TCS study . This is a serious technical error, as this was the
life expectancy at birth at that time.
• The actual cost of permanent disability, pain and grief was not included or
assumed certain percentage.
LIMITATIONS OF THE PAST STUDIES
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
• Covers both Government and Private hospitals, hence benefits from assessing the
component of amount of subsidy by the government in treating accident victims.
• Covers both Urban and Rural regions, covering all major states
• Ratios for Fatality: (Serious injury: Minor injury) was highly underestimated. This
study attempts to estimate the realistic ratios.
• As against constant life expectancy, this study will use Life Expectancy Charts for
different age groups, such that realistic estimate of loss productivity is estimated.
• Judgements passed by Motor Vehicle Claim Tribunal will be used to account for
amount of Pain and Grief instead of fixed percent assumed in the previous studies.
• Both government and private insurance company’s data would be used for the
estimation of the accident costs.
GAPS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE PRESENT STUDY
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
DIRECT AND INDIRECT COST
9
• Direct cost arises directly from the accidents – requires actual payment by
individuals or institutions. Further divided into medical and non-medical
• Indirect cost refers to lost resources and opportunities resulting from the
accidents. Further divided into tangible and intangible
• Tend to focus on tangible costs such as reduced productivity or output by the
victim
• Usually calculated from average gross earnings and the amount of work time
lost
Three main approaches of measuring indirect cost – human capital, friction-
cost and willingness-to-pay
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
APPROACHES
10
• Direct cost – calculated by multiplying the number of accidents (different injury
types) in a given period by unit cost (Incidence- vs prevalence-based
estimates).
• Indirect cost – three approaches
Human capital approach - measures the value of time lost due to absence
from work or reduced productivity.
Friction-cost approach – measures the cost of replacing those killed or
temporarily or permanently disabled with other existing workers. Here cost
is due to labour market frictions.
Willingness-to-pay approach – measures the total sum what individuals are
willing to pay to reduce the risk of becoming a victim
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
STUDY APPROACH
11
Victim related costs Property damage costs Administrative Costs
Medical cost
Lost Labour cost
Funeral cost
Pain Grief & Suffering cost
• Vehicle Damage cost
• Infrastructure Damage cost
• Vehicle Lost Productivity
• Police Investigation cost
• Legal cost
• Insurance Administration cost
• Court Administration cost
The ‘Human Capital Approach' estimates the loss to society caused by a traffic accident. Considers the Lost Productivity of the victim and care giver.
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
STUDY APPROACH – Accident Cost Data Components
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
STUDY APPROACH – Accident Cost Data Components
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
SAMPLING STRATEGY- GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE & DATA SOURCES
• 20 State Capitals
• Covering All Types of Socio-economic regions.
Pan India Coverage
• Two trauma centres identified per city
• Urban and sub-urban region
• 250 samples in each city, Total about 5000 samples
• 1-2 Private Hospitals per city
• Post discharge Follow-up with victims/families
• Hospital Administrative expenses, Direct and indirect costs
Sampling Strategy for Hospitals
• Interviews with various stakeholders such ULB’s, PWD,
Motor Vehicle Service Centres, Claim Tribunals, Traffic
Police and Insurance Companies
Sampling Strategy for Secondary
Data Collection
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- HOSPITAL SELECTION
Identified Trauma Centers in cities
TRAUMA CENTRES
• One Trauma centres in each Urban area
• One Trauma centre in Sub-urban area
• Total 38 Trauma centres in 19 cities
PRIVATEHOSPITALS
• 1-2 Private hospitals each city,
• Information of patients through data records, OPD’s
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- SOURCES & DATA ELEMENTS
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- SOURCES & DATA ELEMENTS
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
Questionnaire Design
Total 16 Questionnaires Designed
Pilot Testing done for Delhi Hospital (AIIMS)
Refined the Questionnaires Based on Pilot Tests
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
SAMPLE
19
Data Sample
Accident Victim data Collection. 54 Hospital from 20 Cities, 6610 samples
Victim Follow-up Survey Calls made 6610 Responses obtained 4015
FIR Data 6412 FIRs
Vehicle Damage Data 3693 vehicles from 4 service centre and 30 workshops, 5 bus organisations. Vehicle Insurance claims for accidental damages from Insurance Information Bureau (IIB) published report.
Administrative Data Interactions with traffic police (Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Shimla, and Bhopal) Interactions with officials of insurance companies and lawyers.
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
COST DISAGGREGATION FRAMEWORK
20
Identify the value by Road User type
Accident Severity Type Road User Type Cost Element Type
• Fatal Accident
• Minor Injury Accident
• Pedestrian
• Cyclist
• 2Wheeler Rider/ Pillion Rider
• Car and Taxi occupant
• Bus Passenger
• Auto rickshaw passenger/Driver
• Goods Vehicle Occupant
• Victim Related Costs
• Accident Administration Costs
• Property Damage Costs
• Grievous Injury Accident(Serious +Major Injury)
Identify the economic value per accident by Severity Type
Identify the type of cost element
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
FINDINGSVictim Hospital Data Analysis
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
Victim Sample Coverage
22
11%
24%
27%
17%
15%
6%
Accident Victim by Age Group(Total Samples- 5956)
0 to 18
18 to 25
25 to 35
35 to 45
45 to 60
> than 60
6%
64%
30%
Accident Victims by Severity of Injury(N=5956) Minor
Grievous
Fatal
17%
83%
Gender Distribution (N= 5956)
Female
Male
0.62%
1%
2%
4%
6%
12%
15%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Other
Bus
Truck
Auto-rickshaw/E-Rickshaw
Bicycle/Rickshaw
Car/SUV/Taxi
Pedestrian
Motorised Two Wheeler
Victim Travel mode by Accidents ( N= 5956)
Fatal
Grievous Injury
Minor Injury
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VICTIM MEDICAL COSTS
23Source: Victim Primary & Follow Up Data
Medical Cost-Government Hospitals Medical Cost-Private Hospitals
• Grievous Injury CaseCost of Private Hospital is approx. 3 times Government Hospital Cost
SeverityDuring
HospitalisationDuring Post
Hospitalisation
Out of pocket
expenses
Total Medical Cost
Fatal 49,142 - 3,384 52,526
Grievous Injury 52,625 36,589 6,136 95,350
Minor Injury2,353 2,272 1,309 5,933
SeverityDuring
Hospitalisation
During Post
Hospitalisation
Out of
pocket
expenses
Total
Medical
Cost
Fatal2,61,060 - 4,553 2,65,613
Grievous Injury1,87,925 89,935 8,567 2,86,427
Minor Injury6,327 3,998 1,287 11,612
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VICTIM LOST OUTPUT ESTIMATION
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A. Lost Days for Fatal , Grievous & Minor.
B. Victim Age for Fatal
C. Per capita income (CSO)
D. Life Expectancy at different age(Census of India)
VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR INJURIES = A x C
VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR FATALITIES = D f(B) x C
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR INJURIES
25
LOC- Injury (INR) Grievous Minor
A Total Lost Days 120 16C Per Capita Income (FY2018-19 @ current prices) 391 391
( A) x (C) Lost Output (INR) per Casualties46,920 6,256
Source: Victim Primary & Follow Up Data
Victim Lost Days
Lost Output Costs (LOC)- Injury Case
Severity Hospitalisation
Post Hospitalisation/
Convalescence/ Recovery
period
Total Care Giver Lost
DaysTotal Lost Days
Fatal 5 - 6 11
Grievous 13 73 34 120
Minor 1 10 5 16
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST FUTURE OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES
26
Value of Lost Output Costs for Fatal Casualty:
Scenario-1: Lost future years based on Life expectancy and per Capita GDP
Scenario-2: Lost Future years based on work years and per capita labour force income
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST FUTURE OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES
27
Value of Lost Output Costs for Fatal Casualty:
Scenario-1:
Victim Lost Future
Output based on Life
Expectancy and per
Capita Income
Step 1
• Calculate age group wise number of people killed in accidents
Step 2
• Use the life expectancy tables and calculate the total lost years in each age group
Step 3
• Use the per capita GDP growth rate (g) and Discount rate (i) to calculate the future incomes in each age group at present values
Step 4
• Calculate the total lost future output by multiplying number of persons killed with the respective lost income in each age group
Step 5
• Calculate the Lost Future Output by dividing the total lost output by the total persons killed
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST FUTURE OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES
28
Age Group-wise Life
Expectancy by Residence
in India (2013-2017)
Lost Future Output for
remaining life( discounted)
current 2018-19 prices
No. of People
Killed ( MoRTH
2018-19)
Total Lost
Future output
(Lakhs)
Age group wise %age
People Killed
Age-Interval No. Years INR Lakhs INR Lakhs
0-1 69.00 134.41 740 99,417 0.50%
29.50%
1-5 70.80 139.11 1479 2,05,792 1.00%
5-10 67.30 130.04 2219 2,88,553 1.50%
10-15 62.50 118.04 3698 4,36,530 2.50%
15-20 57.70 106.52 15976 17,01,873 10.80%
20-25 53.00 95.71 19527 18,68,828 13.20%
25-30 48.30 85.33 19675 16,78,762 13.30%
48.90%
30-35 43.60 75.39 19823 14,94,496 13.40%
35-40 39.00 65.99 16568 10,93,364 11.20%
40-45 34.50 57.19 16272 9,30,565 11.00%
45-50 30.10 48.90 11834 5,78,724 8.00%
15.20%
50-55 25.80 41.11 7397 3,04,054 5.00%
55-60 21.90 34.29 3254 1,11,582 2.20%
60-65 18.10 27.86 2663 74,180 1.80%
6.40%
65-70 14.70 21.16 2367 50,077 1.60%
70-75 11.50 17.19 2219 38,142 1.50%
75-80 8.80 13.00 1923 24,995 1.30%
80-85 6.30 9.20 148 1,362 0.10%
85+ 4.50 6.52 148 965 0.10%
147930 1,09,82,260
Average Lost Output per Fatality is INR 74,23,957.
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES
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Value of Lost Output Costs for Fatal Casualty:
Scenario-2:
Victim Lost Future
years Based on
Work years and per
Capita Labour Force
Income
Step 1
• Calculate age group wise number of people killed in accidents
Step 2
• Calculate the total lost years in each age group by considering legal age for working i.e age band between 15 years and 65 years.
Step 3
• Calculate the per capita workforce income (GDP/total work force) for the past years and calculate the growth rate
Step 4
• Use the per capita workforce income growth rate (r) and Discount rate (i) to calculate the future incomes in each age group, considering the remaining work life years.
Step 5
• Calculate the Lost Future Output by dividing the total lost output by the total persons killed including persons below age 15 as well as above age 65
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES
30
Age Group-wise Working
Life Expectancy
Lost Future Output
for remaining life(
discounted)
current 2018-19
prices
No. of People
Killed ( MoRTH
2018-19)
Total Lost Future
output (Lakhs)
Age group wise %age
People Killed
Age-
Interval
No. of
YearsINR Lakhs INR Lakhs
0-1 50.00 174.98 740 1,29,424 0.50%
29.50%
1-5 50.00 174.98 1479 2,58,849 1.00%
5-10 50.00 169.76 2219 3,76,681 1.50%
10-15 50.00 164.69 3698 6,09,060 2.50%
15-20 50.00 160.74 15976 25,68,109 10.80%
20-25 45.00 142.39 19527 27,80,412 13.20%
25-30 40.00 124.58 19675 24,51,154 13.30%
48.90%
30-35 35.00 107.31 19823 21,27,165 13.40%
35-40 30.00 90.55 16568 15,00,273 11.20%
40-45 25.00 74.29 16272 12,08,925 11.00%
45-50 20.00 58.52 11834 6,92,557 8.00%
15.20%
50-55 15.00 43.22 7397 3,19,668 5.00%
55-60 10.00 28.37 3254 92,341 2.20%
60-65 5.00 13.97 2663 37,204 1.80%
6.40%
65-70 0.00 0.00 2367 - 1.60%
70-75 0.00 0.00 2219 - 1.50%
75-80 0.00 0.00 1923 - 1.30%
80-85 0.00 0.00 148 - 0.10%
85+ 0.00 0.00 148 - 0.10%
147930 1,51,51,823
Average Lost Output per Fatality is INR 102,42,563.
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
OTHER VICTIM RELATED COSTS
31
Motor Accident Claim Tribunal (MACT) judgments award average INR 25,000
Typically, lawyers charge 5% to 10% of the compensation amount. Based on average compensations, legal
costs used are:
Casualty Type Average Legal Charges (Rs)
Fatal case1,50,000
Grievous Injury Case50,000
Source: Indian Kanoon MACT Judgements
Funeral Costs
Legal Costs
Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
Costs Towards Pain, Grief & Suffering
32
Pain, Grief and Sufferings for the fatal accident case is calculated as %age of Lost Future Output
Pain and sufferings for the grievous injury case varies case to case and the average cost is calculated on the basis of the MACT judgements for different types of injury cases.
Source: Indian Kanoon MACT Judgements
20% of Lost Output of the Victim
Average compensation awarded for Grievous Injury cases by MACT Judgements
INR 1,06,000
Fatality Case
Grievous Injury Case
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
Property Damage Costs Analysis• Vehicle Damage
• Civil Property Damage
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Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA
Vehicle Category-wise Average Accident Repair Costs
34
S.No. Vehicle Category
Vehicle Damage Repair Cost Data Sources All Sources