RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1 Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and Marcel Berk National Institute of Public Health.

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1 http://www.rivm.nl/fair

Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and

Marcel Berk

National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands


To explore and evaluate the environmental and abatement costs implications of possible future international climate policy regimes for differentiation of mitigation commitments

The model is not made to promote any particular regime, but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and transparent way

NB: Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for analysing near-

term policy issues Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other Parties as well.

Objective FAIR 2.0


Contents: links “differentiation of commitments” to “adequacy of commitmentsbased on established science (IPCC) includes many proposed regimes options includes emission trading and costs

Form:PC computer modelgeographical user interface relatively simple to use Interactive

Features of FAIR


Some proposals for climate change regimes Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)*

Multi-criteria (CICERO)

Multi-stage (RIVM)*

Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)*

Global Compromise (Benito Müller)*

Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero)

(global) Triptych approach (UU)*

Technological convergence (Tol)

(Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)*

Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT)

Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)*

Soft landing (IEPE)

Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM

SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town)

* Green = included in FAIR 2.0


Strategy: different models for different target groups General Public: web model version:

aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no

publications without consent RIVMPolicy Advisors: full model version (no access to code)

aim: support other Parties in policy analysis conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited support;

no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVMResearch institutes: full model (access to code)

aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publications conditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement; contribution

to development of model; no commercial use

FAIR model versions


Global emission profile

Regional emissions targets

Regional GHG emissions after trade

Climate assessmentmodel

Per capita Convergence

Multi-stageapproach

emission intensity system

CLIMATE MODEL


Abatement costs & permit price

DATASETS

EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL

Mitigation costs & Emissions trade

EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL

Historicalemissions

BrazilianProposal

Triptych approach

Baselinescenario

Emissionsprofile

MACs

FAIR 2.0 model

Global emission reduction objective


Regions in FAIR 2.0


Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version

Historical emissions (1765-1995): CDIAC (only CO2)

EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO2 GHGs)

Baseline scenario IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios IMAGE-POLES scenario

Emission profiles two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.)

Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves MACs CO2: energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE)

MACs non-CO2: GECS (European Commission)







Multi-stageapproach


CLIMATE MODEL



DATASETS




Historicalemissions

BrazilianProposal

Baselinescenario

Emissionsprofile

MACs

Emissions allocation model of FAIR internet



Climate regimes included in FAIR 2.0Brazilian proposal approach * Multi-Stage (RIVM) * Contraction & Convergence (GCI) * CSE convergence * Global Compromise (Muller) * Grandfathering * Multi-criteria convergenceJacoby rule (MIT)Emissions Intensity Targets approach * Triptych approach (Utrecht/NWS)

* Included in FAIR internet version


Brazilian Proposal distribute emission reductions Annex I based on regional contribution to temperature increase due to

their historical emissions (from 1890) Global application with participation threshold (per capita income levels, and/or per capita emissions) Our implementation => Brazilian Proposal approach

Policy choices (in FAIR 2.0 internet version ): Participation threshold Time frames:

start-date (1765, 1890, 1950, 1990)


Multi-Stage approachMulti-stage Approach (RIVM):

a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy

Four stages (for non-Annex I):

Stage 1. No constraint

Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1)

Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2)

Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I)

Policy choices: Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions Stabilisation period Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita

emissions/income, etc.


Multi-Stage approach

Gradual participation and different type of commitments

Example for S550e:– threshold 1: 20% ’90 Annex I per capita income– threshold 2: 50% ‘90 Annex I per capita income – 5-year stabilisation emissions – contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions







Multi-stageapproach


CLIMATE MODEL



DATASETS




Historicalemissions

BrazilianProposal

Baselinescenario

Emissionsprofile

MACs

Costs model of FAIR internet version



Abatement costs model

Function:

1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas)

2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit market

3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.


on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions;

MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is no direct link to GDP losses

Assumption is made of international emission trading: full trading in case regions participate; limited trading for non-participants (CDM)

Methodology


Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq.

Example: S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e

(equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025) Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)


Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e)

Buyers and sellers on the market India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers

Large differences costs Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to 2%)

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1 Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and Marcel Berk National Institute of Public Health.

Documents

trade climate assessment

development of model

model access

emission trading

global ghg emission

web model version

pc computer model

energy model timer