Ritu Mathur, TERIasia/@ro-bangkok/@sro...~ 12% in peak energy Over 400 million people with no access to electricity 90% of rural India dependent on traditional fuels for cooking 2

1

Opportunities for green jobs & a sustainable future in India’s energy scenario

Ritu Mathur,TERI

National Conference on Green Jobs24-25 June, 2010

New Delhi

Current Energy Status� Installed generating capacity ~ 150,000 MW (~0.13 kW/capita)

� Per capita consumption of electricity of 733 units

� North America: 13994, Europe: 6009, World average: 2596 (2005 data)

� Suffering from huge shortages (2008/09) of

� ~ 11% in energy terms

� ~ 12% in peak energy

� Over 400 million people with no access to electricity

� 90% of rural India dependent on traditional fuels for cooking

2

Increase in commercial energy needs – an inevitability !

� Huge population with unmet demands�Developmental goals and energy access to all �High targets for economic growth� How much?

� Population in 2031/32 of 1.4 billion

� Rate of Growth of GDP of 8% per annum

� Structural shifts towards services

� Energy to All� Lifestyle improvements

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

En

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n p

er c

apit

a (K

go

E)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

HD

I in

dex

KgoE HDI Linear (HDI )

Reference Energy Demand Projections

Commercial Energy Requirements in Reference Scenario

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2001/02 2006/07 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32

year

mto

e

Coal Natural Gas Oil

Hydro (large & small) Nuclear Solar & WindTotal

3

Future Challenges� Concerns of:

� Energy access

� Energy import vulnerabilities

� Climate change

� What then are the options & what are the implications of adopting alternative choices to fuel the country’s energy needs?

� Scenario based illustrative projections

So What Shape Can The Future Take?

This scenario considers that India takes on an extremely aggressive approach to energy self-sufficiency also resulting in even more stringent emissions reductions.

Stringent Mitigation Scenario (SMS)

This scenario honours the Prime Minister of India’s commitment that India’s per capita carbon emissions would never exceed those of the developed world and it is optimistically assumed here that the developed world would be able to bring down its emissions to a level of 2 tonnes/capita by 2030 as indicated by IPCC AR4.

Global Equity Scenario (GES)

A determined effort is provided here for efficiency improvements both on the supply and demand sides; an accelerated push for renewable energy, nuclear and new technologies. Energy Security concerns are paramount in this scenario.

Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES)

Development continues along current paths with autonomous efficiency improvements taking place where feasible and increase in use of renewable energy carrying on at the same pace; and defined policy priorities being implemented

Reference Energy Scenario (RES)

StorylineScenario names

4

Commercial energy consumption

Primary commercial energy supply-2031

5

Fossil import dependency

Large energy import infrastructure requirements by 2031 in the RES

Coal import: ~1400 million tonnes, Oil import: ~750 million tonnes

Power generation capacity mix 2031

6

Main Inferences� Directional path of the Global Equity

Scenario (GES) most attractive, balances multiple considerations of � minimising energy imports

� optimising use of India’s substantial renewable energy resources cost effectively, and

� efficient use of capital.

Macro Inferences� Key transformations with respect to electricity:

� Substitution of fossil based thermal energy with electrical energy to the extent technologically possible across all sectors of the economy (eg. transport)

� Generation of electricity from renewable sources

� Freezing coal based capacity additions to currently committed levels and phasing out obsolete plants.

� Move to decentralised electricity generation on a large scale for rural electrification

7

Macro Inferences� Key transformations with respect to the oil sector

� Enhanced capacities in the railways, mass transit and public transport systems.

� Substituting petrol and diesel driven vehicles with hybrid and battery operated vehicles

� Maximising the substitution of petro-fuels with bio-fuels

� Key transformations with respect to the coal sector:� Accelerating utilisation of India’s domestic coal resources

� Rejection of additional thermal power generation capacity based on imported coal

Macro Inferences� Significant short term gains (nearly 30%) are possible by

increasing energy efficiencies along the entire value chain.

� What India does in the short term would pave the way for

realising its long term opportunities:

� creating a comfort level with emerging technologies (manufacturing

and market creation experience at appropriate scales, human

resources, regulatory frameworks etc.);

� investing in identified R,D&D needs

� creating a conducive environment for transformational changes

� awareness generation, education, appropriate policies/regulations for

bringing about behavioural changes

8

Scope for Green jobs� Green Jobs are a prerequisite to achieve green economy

� Climate Change Challenge calls for large transitions & offers several opportunities for direct & indirect employment generation, skill development, new/green job opportunities

� Scope of green jobs: � Mission on Solar & other renewables including biofuels� Green Buildings� Public transport & infrastructure development� Energy efficiency� LABL

TECHNOLOGY CYCLE AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION

9

Employment Estimates in the Renewable Energy sector, Global and Selected Countries, 2006.

Renewable Energy Source World/ Selected Countries Employment

Wind world 300,000

Solar PV world 115,000

Solar thermal China, Europe, USA 624,000+

Biomass/ Biofuels Brazil, USA, China, Germany 1,174,000

Hydro Power Europe, USA 39,000

Geothermal USA, Germany 25,000

Renewable , combined 2,277,000

Source: UNEP Background paper on green Jobs

SOLARTable 6: Domestic Job Creation Potential In Solar Photovoltaic

Low Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario High Growth ScenarioStudy 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050

Renewable Energy Policy Project, 2001 3,271 106,850 166,250 6,543 213,700 332,500 13,085 427,400 665,000

Greenpeace2001

6,635

279,400

515,000

13,270

558,800

1,030,000

26,540 1,117,600 2,060,000

Greenpeace and the EPIA, 2007 58,588 1,053,500 537,500 117,175 2,107,000 1,075,000 234,350 4,214,000 2,150,000

10

ESTIMATES

TIME 2020 2030 2050

RANGE 6929-243,225

8,929-225,975

9039-225,975

TIME 2020 2030 2050

RANGE 3,271-234,350

106,850 –42,14,000

166,250-21,50,000

SOLAR ENERGY

WIND ENERGY

WIND: HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

*A similar trend is observed for moderate and low growth scenarios.

However, the peak shifts i.e. for moderate growth employment

potential peaks at 2030 while for low growth it peaks at 2042.

11

Bio-Energy� 140 million hectares of land not used

productively� Placing ~ 40 million ha of such land under

energy plantation can generate ~ 280 million units of electricity annually through 17000 biomass gasifiers of 10 KW each.

� Avoided capacity of approximately 300 MW (including T&D losses) of conventional power plants

OTHER ESTIMATES� India could generate 900,000 jobs by 2025 in biomass gasification of which

300,000 would be in the manufacturing of stoves and 600,000 in areas such

as processing into briquettes and pellets and the fuel supply chain (UNEP,

2008)

� National Mission on Decentralized Biomass Energy has a potential to

create around 10 million jobs in ten years

� According to UNEP (2008) the introduction of 6,100 new CNG buses in

New Delhi between late 2007 and 2009 was expected to create 18,000 new

jobs.

12

LaBL - Few facts1.6 billion people

� lack access to electricity; 1 in 4 are in India76 million rural households

� of the total 138 million in India have no access to electricity

65 million� of the above use kerosene for lighting

2.3 billion litres per year � Kerosene used for lighting by 65 million households @ average monthly

consumption of 3 litres per household

Approx 5 million ton CO2

� emitted to the atmosphere by the above

About Rs. 70 billion� is burnt in smoke every year in wick lamps and kerosene lanterns

Introducing LaBL– Power to Empower

� Setting up solar charging stations in villages and renting solar lanterns to displace kerosene lanterns and dibris for better illumination & smoke free indoor environment

� Providing solar lanterns to facilitate and advance rural livelihood generation

• Identifying & training entrepreneurs to

operate charging stations, provide repair &

maintenance services

• Facilitating creation of energy enterprises on

supply and demand side

13

LaBL - Prospects for Green jobs

Direct employment� LaBL has been able to generate direct livelihood for 160

entrepreneurs as charging station operators across 160 villages in 12 states of India, of which 20% are women

� LaBL is setting up Technology Resource Centres (TRCs) for every 20 charging station that would cater to after sales services in these villages. LaBL envisages setting up 40,000 charging stations by 2012 � 40,000 green jobs (40,000 entrepreneurs)

Indirect opportunities� Long term implications; extended

working hours, livelihood creation, economic enhancement, local employment� 15%-20% of the lanterns rented are used

for other livelihood options like weaving, sewing, vending, running tuition centresetc.

� Of the 8000 lanterns disseminated so far, 1200-1600 lanterns are being used for these activities.

� LaBL envisages disseminating 2,000,000 solar lanterns by 2012 � 3,00,000 –4,00,000 lanterns likely to be used for other livelihood activities by 2012.

14

Green Buildings � Annual increase in demand 5.4 billion units needing

5500 MW per 5 year plan period

� Green buildings savings� 30% in residential buildings

� 40 % in commercial buildings

� Investing in Green Buildings will reduce subsidies � Lower demand for diesel based captive generation

� Avoid high-cost traded electricity

� Re-directing this savings as a sustainability incentive would cover 30 – 70 % of incremental costs

Other areas� Solar components and other renewables -Jobs

in R&D, innovative technology development and adaptation to suit Indian requirements

� Public transport and infrastructure development

� Greater involvement of private sector/ corporates & businesses

15

� Challenges� Capacity building� Transaction costs

� Strategies� Environmental and social full-cost pricing of energy and material inputs necessary to

discourage unsustainable production and consumption & move to green economy

� Appropriate policy instruments and incentives should be in place to strategize the creation of green jobs and drive the economy in the direction of socio economic development.

� Government policy instruments may include: financial measures-public investments, subsidy shifts, new R&D priorities and ecological tax reform. Non financial measures- extended producer responsibility laws, eco-labelling.

� Effective green investment strategy, green R&D and technology transfer can aid in creation of enormous green job/ cleaner livelihood opportunities

Challenges & strategies

Conclusion

� Creation of green jobs/ cleaner livelihood opportunities is imperative to achieve a sustainable socio economic growth.

� Creation of green job in one sector of the economy has the potential to “radiate” across large sections of economy thus greening commensurately large sections of the total workforce.

� India should holistically focus on creating green jobs in various sectors of growth such as energy efficient buildings, transportation and agriculture sector.

� Suitable policies and regulatory framework should be in place to realize the dream of India achieving sustainable development.

16

RECOMMENDATIONS

�Integrated design and targeted

implementation of policies

�Capacity building and skill development

�Mobilization of financial resources

Thank You