Risks All projects have some degree of risk Risks are issues that can cause problems Delay in schedule Increased project costs Technical risk.

Risks

All projects have some degree of risk Risks are issues that can cause problems

Delay in schedule Increased project costs Technical risk example

1. We intend to use Web services, but no team member has experience with them

2. The team may not have the required Java skills to execute the job on time because several have not used Java in a business environment

What is Risk Management?

The total process to identify, control, and minimize the impact of uncertain events.

In IT, the focus is on availability, reliability, maintainability & security

In SE, the focus is on quality & productivity One time, on budget & works Realistic expectations

Try to confront risks early in the process rather than waiting for them to confront us when building the application

Risk Management

Usually performed1. at the start of a project,2. at the beginning of major project

phases (such as requirements, design, coding and deployment), and

3. when there are significant changes (for example, feature changes, target platform changes and technology changes).

Other Processes 4

Risk Analysis Methods1. Identify potential sources of risk

Imagine all wost-case scenarios2. Analyze each risk

Understand its potential impact on the project3. Prioritize risks

Focus on the most serious4. Mitigation strategies

Conquer it (investigate & take action) Avoid it (change plans so the issue doesn’t

occur5. Develop a plan to retire the risk6. Review your risk management plan

periodically1. Progress on plan?2. Change to the risk?3. New risks?

Identification

How are risks to the project’s success identified ? Can be tricky Requires imagination – looking at parts

of the process that at first glance do not seem risky

Brainstorming

Brainstorming

Have a brainstorming session, consider : Weak areas, such as unknown technology. Aspects that are critical to project

success, such as the timely delivery of a vendor's database software, creation of translators or a user interface that meets the customer's needs.

Problems that have plagued past projects, such as loss of key staff, missed deadlines or error-prone software

Other Processes 7

Expressing Risks

Need to describe in as much detail as possible Vague: “Team member may get sick” Better: “Sick time will exceed the

company norm by 50% due to high number of young parents on team”

Mitigation

Do you conquer the risk? Take an action Fire young parent employees?

Or avoid the risk? Change a plan Budget more time in the schedule?

Mitigating Risk by planning

The team should develop a plan to address each risk

Assign an individual to carry out the plan Make plans concrete

Vague: “we will all learn Java” Concrete: “Tom & Sue will pass level 2 Java

Certification by Dec. 4th by attending SuperJava Course”

Avoidance: “Use C++ instead of Java”

Prioritizing Risks Create a table of identified risks and

prioritize What is the estimated likelihood that the

risk will occur? L: 1-10 with 1 lowest likelihood

What is the estimated impact of the risk? I:1-10 with 1 lowest impact

What is the estimated cost of managing it? M:1-10 with 1 lowest cost

Priority number (11-L)*(11-1)*M

Retirement plan Responsible person Target completion date

Risk prioritization

Describe the risks fully Priority depends on factors such as

likelihood and seriousness of impact on project

A high priority task has a low priority number because people usually refer to their “highest priority” as number 1

The more expensive it is to deal with a risk, the lower its priority If it’s a lot of work, may be better off not

working on it in advance Construct an expensive simulation? Or deal with it

when it arises? Sometimes have to just accept the risk

Note 1: The risk is that the team does not have enough skills in Java to handle the programming required by this project in the time allowedNote 2: The risk is that although a Web Service technology is a good choice, it is a new technology and its immaturity may create difficultiesNote 3: Jen, Oscar, and Alf will all pass their level 2 Java cert by X date by taking Y course Note 4: Jen will install 3 Web services typical of DVD inventory management and run 1,000 typical transactions against these, gathering timing data

Just deal with it? Not every risk can be dealt with earlier

than its natural occurrence. Suppose the team has a week to add

significant functionality to the app Goal: add the capability to show future

investment growth graphically for a financial app

Little to gain from performing risk analysis and retirement in this case

With such short lead time, the resource of work time is better spent just getting to it

The chance that it won’t get done exists, but the time required for risk analysis my not leave enough time to do the job

Risk Review

review your risks periodically, check how well mitigation is

progressing. change risk priorities, as required Identify new risks. rerun the complete risk process if the

project has experienced significant changes.

incorporate risk review into other regularly scheduled project reviews

Other Processes 15

In your projects

Risk management should be part of your discussions in your weekly meetings

Identify & mitigate (where possible)