EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “TODAY’S MONEY IS NOT EQUAL TO TOMORROW’S MONEY”, this says that the money invested today does not have same value tomorrow, the time value of money affects to a great extent. So, one has to consider time value of money when going for investment especially in securities as equity shares etc. because the price fluctuations are very rapid. Every individual wants to save money and instead of keeping it idle he/she wants to invest it further for its appreciation i.e., for the returns earned from it in the future. There are many number of investment alternatives, it depends on the individual who wants to invest as which alternative he has to choose i.e., it depends on the rate of return or the amount of return and risk that the individual expect from the investment. Some individuals want high returns and ready to take high risk, few don’t want to take risk and they will be satisfied with the returns they get from the minimum risk. The individuals or the investors who are willing to take risk will go for equity investment, in which they can earn more returns and the other hand those who don’t want to take risk or who wants to minimize the risk will go PG Department of Management Studies 1 Atria Institute of Technology
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“TODAY’S MONEY IS NOT EQUAL TO TOMORROW’S MONEY”, this says
that the money invested today does not have same value tomorrow, the time value of
money affects to a great extent. So, one has to consider time value of money when going
for investment especially in securities as equity shares etc. because the price fluctuations
are very rapid.
Every individual wants to save money and instead of keeping it idle he/she wants
to invest it further for its appreciation i.e., for the returns earned from it in the future.
There are many number of investment alternatives, it depends on the individual who
wants to invest as which alternative he has to choose i.e., it depends on the rate of return
or the amount of return and risk that the individual expect from the investment. Some
individuals want high returns and ready to take high risk, few don’t want to take risk and
they will be satisfied with the returns they get from the minimum risk.
The individuals or the investors who are willing to take risk will go for equity
investment, in which they can earn more returns and the other hand those who don’t want
to take risk or who wants to minimize the risk will go for bank deposits, investments in
mutual funds, debenture bonds, preference shares etc, where they can get a fixed amount
who don’t take risk or avoid risk are called as risk aversers.
Thus our study is mainly conducted to find out the risk and return that has been
associated with the banking stocks of the BSE BankEx and also to know the relationship
between Banks return and market returns.
My intention of choosing the topic “Risk Return Analysis of BSE BankEx at
Kotak Securities, Bangalore” is that, Banking sector is emerging sector now. India is now
opening up its economy for banking investments and any country can start Banking in
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India. Thus keeping in mind I took up the study to know how risky the investment in
Banking Sector is and the expected return that can get for the risk he has undertaken.
Objective of the study is Risk and Returns analysis of BSE BankEx securities and
to identify and analyze the correlation between Banks returns with BSE BankEx returns.
Scope of the study is limited to only Public Sector Banks, its regards calculation
of Returns, Standard Deviation, Beta, Alpha, Co variance and Correlation.
The method of data collection is primarily the data and views regarding the
Banking sector have been collected by interacting with the executives in the organization
as well with the internal guide. Secondary data regarding prices and regarding company
profile is collected through internet, news paper etc.
Limitations of the study are a good number of explanatory variables must be
taken into consideration in order to assess the share prices movement. But, due to time
constraints detailed analysis of each bank were now made. Confidently of data, then the
analysis carried out and suggestions offered are limited to the researcher’s ability to
understand complex financial aspects.
As far as findings are concerned Canara Bank leads in the aspects of Risk and
Returns. There exists a positive correlation between Banks returns and BSE BankEx
returns.
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GENERAL INTRODUCTION
INDUSTRY PROFILE
Introduction to Capital Market
Capital is an important factor of production, necessary for economic development.
It is a market for raising funds for capital formation and investment, which is referred to
as capital market. Investment comes from savings and the mobilization of savings is a
major function of the capital market.
Capital market is a wide term used to comprise all operations in the new issues
and stock market. New issues made by the companies constitute the primary market,
while trading in the existing securities relates to the secondary market. While we can only
buy in the primary market, we can buy and sell securities in the secondary market.
Capital market thus provides funds from public who are savers to investors. The
surpluses of the household sector and foreign sector are used to meet the deficits of the
Government and business sectors, who invest more than they save, or spend more than
their income.
Lending and borrowing of these surpluses and deficits and Bank credit and the
credit from financial institutions are all channelized through the capital market. Banks
commercial and co-operative as also all financial institutions intermediaries operating in
the capital market. This facilitates the project financing and growth of the corporate
sector on the one hand and there working in day-to-day operations on the other. Hence
the capital market is the market for financial assets that have long or indefinite maturity.
When a company wishes to raise capital by issuing securities or other entity intends to
raise funds through units, debt instrument, bonds, etc., it goes to the primary securities for
long-term funds. The primary market facilitates the formation of capital.
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There are three ways in which a company may raise capital in the primary market:
Public Issue: This involves sale of securities to members of the public, is the
most important mode of raising long-term funds.
Rights Issue: This is the method of raising further capital from existing
shareholders by offering additional securities to them on a pre-emptive basis.
Private Placements: Is a way of selling securities privately to a small group of
investors.
The Secondary market in India, where outstanding securities are traded, consists of
the stock exchanges which are self-regulatory bodies under the overall regulatory
purview of the government/ SEBI. Recently, SEBI has proposed the trading in futures
and options (Capital Market Derivatives). Accordingly, the definition of securities under
SCRA will have to be amended.
The government has accorded powers to the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(SEBI), as an autonomous body, to oversee the functioning of the securities market and
the operations of intermediaries like mutual funds and merchant bankers, underwriters,
portfolio managers, debenture trustee, bankers to an issue, registrars to an issue and share
transfer agents, stock brokers, sub-brokers, FII s (Foreign Institutional Investors)
plantation companies schemes including rating agencies and also to prohibit insider
trading.
Structure of the market
There are various sub-markets in the capital market in India. The structure has
undergone vast changes in recent years. New instruments and new institutions have
emerged on the scene.
The sub-markets are as follows:
1. Market of Corporate securities – for new issues and old securities.
2. Market for Government securities.
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3. Market for Debt instruments – debentures and bonds of private sector, bonds of
public sector undertakings, public financial institutions, etc.
4. Mutual fund schemes and UTI schemes, etc.
All these markets and submarkets have both Primary markets and Secondary markets.
The first one is for raising funds directly from the public and secondary market is for
trading and imparting liquidity to existing securities.
About BSE
The stock exchange, Mumbai, popularly known as “BSE” was established in
1875 as “The Native Share and Stock Brokers Association”. It is the oldest one in
Asia, even older than the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which was established in 1878. It is
voluntary non-profit making Association o persons (AOP) and is currently engaged in the
process of converting itself into demutualised and corporate entity. It has evolved over
the years into its present status as the premier stock exchange in the country. It is the first
stock exchange in the country to have obtained permanent recognition in 1956 from the
Govt. of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
The Exchange while providing an efficient market also upholds the interests of
the investors and ensures redressal of their grievances, whether against the companies or
its own member brokers. It also strives to educate and enlighten the investors by making
available necessary informative inputs.
A Governing Body comprises nine of elected directors ( one third of them retire
every year by rotation ), an Executive Director, three Government nominees, A Reserve
Bank of India nominee and five public representatives is the apex body, which regulates
the Exchange and decides its policies.
The Governing Board following the election of directors annually elects a
President, Vice-President and an honorary treasurer from among the elected directors.
The Executive Director as the Chief Executive Officer is responsible for the day-to-day
administration of the Exchange.
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About NSE
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is India’s leading Stock Exchange covering
various cities and towns across the country. NSE was set up by leading institutions to
provide a modern, fully automated screen-based trading system with national reach. The
exchange has brought about unparalleled transparency, speed and efficiency, safety and
market integrity.
NSE has played a catalytic role in reforming the Indian securities market in terms
of microstructure, market practices and trading volumes. The market today uses state-of-
art information technology to provide an efficient and transparent trading, clearing and
settlement mechanism, and has witnessed several innovations in products & services viz.,
demutualization of stock exchange governance, screen based trading, compression of
settlement cycles, dematerialization and electronic transfer of securities, securities
lending and borrowing, professionalisation of trading members, fine-tuned risk
management systems, emergence of clearing corporations to assume counterparty risks,
market of debt and derivative instruments and intensive use of information technology.
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NSE Milestones
November 1992 Incorporation
April 1993 Recognition as a Stock exchange
May 1993 Formulation of business plan
June 1994 Wholesale Debt Market segment goes live
November 1994 Capital Market (Equities) segment goes live
March 1995 Establishment of Investor Grievance Cell
April 1995 Establishment of NSCCL, the first Clearing corporation
June 1995 Introduction of centralized insurance cover for all trading members
October 1995 Establishment of Investor Protection Fund
April 1996 Became largest stock exchange in the country
April 1996 Commencement of clearing and settlement by NSCCL
April 1996 Launch of S&P CNX Nifty
June 1996 Establishment of Settlement Guarantee Fund
November 1996 Setting up of National Securities Depository Limited, first
depository in India, co-promoted by NSE
November 1996 Best IT Usage award by Computer Society of India
December 1996 Commencement of trading/settlement in dematerialized securities
December 1996 Dataquest award for Top IT User
December 1996 Launch of CNX Nifty Junior
February 1997 Regional clearing facility goes live
November 1997 Best IT Usage award by Computer Society of India
May 1998 Promotion of Joint venture, India Index Services & Products
Limited (IISL)
May 1998 Launch of NSE’s Web-site: www.nse.co.in
July 1998 Launch of NSE’s Certification Programme in Financial Mkt
August 1998 CYBER CORPORATE OF THE YEAR 1998 launch of Automated
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Lending and Borrowing Mechanism
April 1999 CHIP Web Award by CHIP magazine
October 1999 Setting up of NSE.IT
January 2000 Launch of NSE Research Initiative
February 2000 Commencement of Internet Trading
June 2000 Commencement of Derivatives Trading (Index Futures)
September 2000 Launch of ‘Zero Coupon Yield Curve’
November 2000 Launch of Broker by Dotex International, a joint venture between
NSE.IT Ltd. and i-flex Solutions Ltd.
December 2000 Commencement of WAP trading
June 2001 Commencement of trading in Index Options
July 2001 Commencement of trading in Options on Individual Securities
November 2001 Commencement of trading in Futures on Individual Securities
December 2001 Launch of NSE VaR for Government Securities
January 2002 Launch of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
May 2002 NSE wins the Wharton-Infosys Business Transformation Award in
the Organization-wide Transformation category
October 2002 Launch of NSE Government Securities Index
January 2003 Commencement of trading in Retail Debt Market
June 2003 Launch of Interest Rate Futures
August 2003 Launch of Futures & options in CNXIT Index
AT GLANCE:
CAPITAL MARKET (EQUITIES) SEGMENT
Number of VSATs August 31, 2004 2,869
Number of cities covered August 31, 2004 361
Settlement Guarantee Fund March 31,2004 1550.09 crores
Investor Protection Fund (CM and F&O) August 31, 2004 130.22 crores
Number of securities available for trading August 31, 2004 1,355
Record number of trades July 08, 2004 25,45,755
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Record daily turnover (quantity) August 19, 2003 6,493 lakhs
Record daily turnover (value) February 28, 2001 10,366.52 crores
Record market capitalisation January 08, 2004 12,42,778 crores
Record value of S&P CNX Nifty Index January 09, 2004 2,014.65
Record value of CNX Nifty Junior Index February 23, 2000 5,365.90
Record Pay-in/Pay-out (Rolling Settlement)
Funds Pay-in/Pay-out February 05, 2004* 685.76 crores
Securities Pay-in/Pay-out (value) January 13, 2004* 1884.09 crores
Securities Pay-in/Pay-out (Quantity) August 21, 2003* 1470.14 lakhs
* Settlement Date
DERIVATIVES (F&O) SEGMENT
No. of cities covered August 31, 2004 330
Settlement Guarantee Fund March 31, 2004 4,356.85 crores
Record daily turnover (value) January 28, 2004 21,921.34 crores
WHOLESALE DEBT SEGMENT
Number of securities available for trading August 31, 2004 2,888
Record daily turnover (value) August 25, 2003 13,911.57 crores
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Table showing Names of the Stock Exchanges in India
Sl.No. Name of the Stock
Exchange
Year of
Establishment
Recognition date
1 NSE 1992 Nov-1992
2 BSE 1875 31-08-1987
3 CALCUTTA 1908 10-10-1957
4 DELHI 1947 09-10-1957
5 AHMEDABAD 1984 16-10-1957
6 UTTAR PRADESH 1982 03-06-1982
7 LUDIANA 1983 29-04-1983
8 PUNE 1982 02-09-1982
9 BANGALORE 1957 16-02-1963
10 HYDERABAD 1943 02-09-1958
11 INTERCONNECTED SE 1999 1999
12 COCHIN 1978 10-05-1979
13 OTCEI 1989 Aug-1989
14 MADRAS 1908 15-10-1975
15 MADHYA PRADESH 1930 04-12-1958
16 MAGADH 1986 11-12-1986
17 VADODARA 1990 05-11-1990
18 GAUHATI 1984 01-05-1984
19 BHUVANESHVAR 1989 05-06-1989
20 COIMBATORE 1991 18-01-1991
21 JAIPUR 1984 09-11-1989
22 MANGALORE 1984 09-09-1985
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23 SKSE 1989 10-07-1989
Introduction to BSE BankEx
Indian banking is riding on a major recovery both in terms of strength and soundness
since from 2002. India is making sizeable gains in expanding into consumer credit with
tightening of credit administration procedures. Major policy actions that led to sharp fall
in the interest rates enabled banks to post significant rise in operational profits. For
instance trading profits of the public sector banks shot up by Rs. 3749 crores taking their
net profits to an all time high of Rs. 8301 crores in FY 02. These developments have
impacted the performance of bank stocks significantly. Since bank stocks are emerging as
a major segment in the equity markets, BSE considered it important to design an index
exclusively for bank stocks. Earlier BSE had launched its first free float index on TMT
stocks now popularly known as the BSE TECk Index.
Features
BANKEX will track the performance of the leading banking sector stocks listed
on the BSE
BANKEX is based on the free float methodology of index construction
The base date for BANKEX is 1st January 2002.
The base value for BANKEX is 1000 points
BSE has calculated the historical index values of BANKEX since 1st January
2002.
12 stocks which represent 90 percent of the total market capitalization of all
banking sector stocks listed on BSE are included in the Index
The Index will be disseminated on a real-time basis through BSE Online Trading
(BOLT) terminals from 23rd June, 2003
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Performance of the BANKEX:
During the period between 1 Jan 2002 and 13 June 2003, the total market capitalization
of BANKEX stocks has increased from 22970 cr. to 55283 cr. while the total market
capitalization of BSE TECk index stocks has fallen from 105956 cr. to 80787 cr. and that
of FMCG Index stocks from 87637 cr. to 75947 cr. During this period, BANKEX rose by
62 percent showing impressive gains among other major indices. The average daily
volatility of BANKEX from its inception to date has been 1.38% as compared to 2.24%
for BSE TECk and 1.06% for BSE FMCG Index for the same period.
BANKEX, is the new entrant in BSE’s current portfolio of 13 indices, and adds value to
BSE’s ability in reflecting both the broad market and specific sector movements in the
Indian Equity Markets.
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History of replacements in BANKEX
Date Outgoing Scrips Replaced by
09.02-2004 ING Vysya Bank UTI Bank Ltd.
Kotak Mahindra Bank
UCO Bank
Indian Overseas Bank
Jammu & Kashmir Bank
31.01-2005 Corporation Bank Allahabad Bank Ltd.
Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd.
UCO Bank
28.11.2005 Centurion Bank Ltd.
Indusind Bank Ltd
Karnataka Bank Limited
03.07.2006 Indusind Bank Ltd Federal Bank Ltd.
08.01.2007 Karnataka Bank
Vijaya Bank
09.07.2007 Karnataka Bank Ltd.
Yes Bank Ltd.
Scrip selection criteria for BSE BankEx:
Eligible universe:
Scrips classified under banking sector that are present constituents of BSE-500 index
would form the eligible universe.
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Trading Frequency:
Scrips should have a minimum of 90% trading frequency in preceding six months.
Market Capitalisation:
Scrips with a minimum of 90% market capitalisation coverage in each sector based on
free-float final rank will form the index.
Buffers
A buffer of 2% both for inclusion and exclusion in the index is considered so that
movements in and out of the index are minimized. E.g. A Company can be included in
the index only if it falls within 88% coverage and an existing index constituent cannot be
excluded unless it falls above 92% coverage. However, the above buffer criterion is
applied only after the minimum 90% market coverage is satisfied.
BANKEX Constituents
BSE BankEx was launched with an objective of measuring the performance of banking
sector stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. BankEx has a base date of 1st
January 2002 and base value of 1000 points. BankEx constituents represent 90% of the
total market capitalisation of the banking sector on BSE. The table below provides the list
of companies comprising BSE-PSU Index.
Code: Each stock listed on BSE is denoted a unique keyword that can be used to get
price and other stock related information.
Name: This column specifies the name of the company to which particular scrip is
denoted.
Adjusting Factor: Adjusting factor refers to the weightage of the constituent stocks in a
particular index. Stocks having a higher weightage are likely to have a stronger impact on
index movement as compared to stocks having a lower weightage.
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As on October 04, 2006
Sl. No. Code Name Adj. Factor
1 532480 Allahabad bank Ltd 0.452 532418 Andhra Bank 0.503 532134 Bank of Baroda 0.504 532149 Bank Of India 0.355 532483 Canara Bank 0.306 532273 Centurion Bank Ltd. 0.707 500469 Federal Bank Ltd. 1.008 500180 HDFC Bank Ltd. 0.809 532174 ICICI Bank Ltd. 1.0010 532388 Indian Overseas Bank 0.4011 532652 Karnataka Bank Limited 1.0012 500247 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 0.4513 500315 Oriental Bank of Commerce 0.5014 532461 Punjab National Bank 0.4515 500112 State Bank of India 0.4516 532477 Union Bank of India 0.4517 532215 UTI Bank Ltd. 0.7518 532401 Vijaya Bank 0.50
Calculation of Total and Average BSE BankEx ReturnsWeeks Open Close Price change Returns1st 10870.88 11377.96 507.08 4.66462nd 11377.96 11486.90 108.94 0.95753rd 11335.47 10738.59 -596.88 -5.26564th 10738.59 11386.35 647.76 6.03215th 11386.35 11905.06 518.71 4.55556th 11905.06 12215.84 310.78 2.6100
Total 13.5546Average 2.2591
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Introduction on Banking Sector:
Banking in one form or another, was in existence even in ancient times. The
writing of Manu (the maker of Old Hindu Law) and Kautilya (the minister of
Chandragupta Maurya) and the teaching of Christ contained references to banking
Existence of banking activities in Babylonia much before Christ.
However, modern banking (i.e., Joint Stock Banking) is of recent origin. After the
industrial revolution, with the increase in the size of industrial and business units, joint
stock company form of business organization came into existence. This form of
organization encouraged people with small means to become shareholders of big
industrial and business enterprises. Still, there were certain sections of the public who
were not prepared to invest their money on the share of joint stock companies. But they
were willing to part with their surplus money, it they were assured of the repayment of
their money with some interest there on. So, naturally, there arose the need for the
formation of financial institution that could collect the surplus funds of the people on
terms acceptable to them and make them available to the needy for productive purposes.
Accordingly, a large number of such financial institutions called joint stock banks were
set up. So, joint stock banks or modern banks are of recent development.
Nationalization of Banks:
In a free enterprise economy, commercial banks operate like any other business
and are mainly concerned with the maximization of their private gains. Lacking any
social purpose they often channel funds to business units in which the management has
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its interest and thus contribute in a big way to growth of monopolies and concentration of
economic and political power, while overall economic activity suffers because priority
sectors/industries fails to get adequate funds. The Hazari committee in its report on
‘Industrial Planning and Licensing Policy’ submitted to the planning commission in
September 14, 1967, clearly stated that, “it would be difficult to undertaken credit
planning unless the linked control of industry and banks in the same hands is snapped by
nationalization of banks”. The government however, decided in favor of social control.
The social control phase, however, turned out to be transitory. Expectations of the
government that the social control would remove objectionable banking practices of the
past and would give a new sense of purpose to the banks for future were believed. Having
realized that nothing short of nationalization would solve the mainly, the government
took a bold decision to bring under its direct control a substantial segment of the banking
system. On July 19, 1969 – fourteen commercial banks with deposits worth Rs. 50 crore
or more were nationalized. This was hailed as historic event by the people of the country.
GLOBAL TREND
Indian banking industry too has fallen in line with the global trend and has made a
beginning with small forays into such areas as selling mutual fund units or insurance
policies. Viewed thus, the decision to branch out into the business of offering an
electronic trading platform in stocks of listed companies for a fee is but a logical
extension of its desire to deepen the relationship with its customers.
Moreover, the fabric of customer loyalty is beginning to get frayed at the edges in
a world of increasing customer choice and changing cultural ethos that looks down upon
permanent relationships. So the more facets that a bank evolves to the relationship that it
has with the customer greater are the prospects of such a relationship enduring and
possibly even flourish in the future.
BASEL II NORMS
Meaning:
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Main feature of Basel – II is that its structure rests on a set of three “Mutually
reinforcing” pillars, namely, capital requirements, supervisory review and market
discipline. Through this approach, Basel – II aims to correct most of the deficiencies that
Basel – I has suffered from. To start with, the standards are now more risk-sensitive. In
other words, Banks which have a larger risk exposure will have to set apart more capital
to meet the unexpected losses that go with it.
The Three Pillars:
The capital framework, under the New Basel Capital Accord, rests on the following three
“Mutually reinforcing” pillars:
Pillar 1: Minimum Capital Requirements
Banks will be required to set apart capital for the credit market and operational
risks faced by them. A menu of approaches of increasing sophistication and lesser capital
requirement will be available to choose from for each of the three risks.
Pillar 2: Supervisory Review
This will involve a comprehensive review of the systems to calculate capital and
also risks not covered under pillar 1 to ensure required as a minimum. The supervisor
may, based on the review, adjust the capital requirement upward.
Pillar 3: Market Discipline
This is aimed at enhancing market discipline by ensuring that an adequate level of
transparency is maintained by banks in their disclosures to the market participants in
respect of various critical aspects of their functioning.
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Introduction to Banks under study
1. Allahabad Bank
Allahabad Bank was set up on 24th April, 1865 at Allahabad by a Group of Europeans
with subscribed capital of Rs.3 lakh. It is the oldest Bank in the country at present. The P
& O Banking Corporation took over the bank by acquiring its shares. In 1969 it was
nationalized. The Bank has entered into an MOU with the Small Industries Development
Bank of India (SIDBI) for financing small scale industrial units. The Bank has 5
International Branches and 4 International Divisions. The Allahabad Bank has become
one of the first banks in the country to draw up a credit management policy following the
dismantling of the Reserve Bank of India-prescribed Maximum Permissible Bank
Finance (MPBF) norms. Allahabad Bank becomes the first public sector bank to have an
exclusive Web site of its own, www.allbankcarloans.com, dedicated to sanctioning car
loans through the Internet.
2. Andhra Bank
The Bank came into existence on by consequent to the taking over of the undertaking of
Andhra Bank, Ltd. It is a Government of India undertaking. The Bank transacts general
banking business of all kinds including foreign exchange. The Bank has 974 full fledged
branches, 40 cluster branches, 76 extension counters. Andhra Bank has tied up with a real
estate portal indiaproperties.com, to provide housing loans through the Internet. Bank
started a new service called collection of Direct taxes which comprises corporate tax,
estate tax, gift tax etc. Andhra Bank has received Insurance Regulatory and Development
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