1 Risk, Decline & The Future of Energy Richard Martin TEAC IV June 1, 2012 The Thorium Paradigm
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1
Risk, Decline & The Future of Energy
Richard MartinTEAC IVJune 1, 2012
The Thorium Paradigm
2
Return To Gaul
3
Twilight of Empire
4
Hero’s Aelophile
Copyright © 2011 Pike Research 5
Wooden-Headedness
“Pursuit of policy contrary to self-interest”
6
Technology Lock-In
7
The Nature of Disaster
8
Dicing With the Gods
9
The True Risk
10
A Reverse Black Swan
11
Bold Ventures
12
Rebirth of the US Auto Industry
13
A sense of crisisBroad social & national goalsBased on new technologyLimited & conditional government
supportAmerica’s competitive advantages
Lessons for the Energy Industry
14
True Cost of Electricity
15
US Power Demand
4 Million GwH/year – 1000 Gw total capacity
16
The Goals
Build a prototype LFTR within five yearsCommercialize LFTRs starting in 2020LFTRs on line sufficient to supply half of
US electricity demand by 2050500 GW, or 500,000 MW, of clean, low-cost
energy by 2050
17
The Program
• 500 thousand-megawatt nuclear plants, or 2000 250MW LFTRs
• 20 new plants/year 2020-2050, or 80 LFTRs/year
• Four manufacturing plants, each producing 20 reactors/5 plants a year
18
How Much Will It Cost?
19
The Thorium Revival
20
Thank You
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