Risk Assessment and its Role in Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Management (Heather Bell)

ASEAN R i l Ri k A t S i W k hASEAN Regional Risk Assessment Scoping WorkshopBangkok, Thailand11-12 October 2011

Risk Assessment and Its Role in Disaster Risk Reduction and EmergencyRisk Reduction and Emergency

Management

Dr Heather Bell Science Advisor In Collaboration with the ASEAN-UNISDRDr. Heather Bell, Science AdvisorPacific Disaster Center1305 N. Holopono St., Suite 2Kihei, Hawaii 96753http://www.pdc.org

In Collaboration with the ASEAN UNISDR Technical Cooperation

People CenteredDRR and RVADRR and RVA

A Basic Approach to DRR

A k l d Ri kAcknowledge RiskAssess Risk

Add Ri kAddress RiskCommunicate Risk

How Does RVA Support DRR and EM?

• Makes idea of risk more

DRR and EM?

Acknowledge

tangible• Helps stakeholders

understand patterns of riskRgRisk

understand patterns of risk and potential consequences

• Identifies gaps and A Ri k

RecoveryMitigation

Assess Risk

Communicate Risk

Address Risk

“hotspots”• Increases effectiveness of

DM activities

Assess Risk

PreparednessAddress Risk DM activities• Aids prioritization and goal

setting

ResponsePreparedness

• Provides evidence for decision making

Risk Assessment in the ARPDM

Sub-Component 2.2.a: Specialized Training in Risk, Damage d d A

Building better risk assessment capacity will help ASEAN

and Needs Assessment

Member Countries to better respond to and mitigate natural disaster risks…Risk assessment requires multi-disciplinary teams to quantify and evaluate hazards vulnerability andteams to quantify and evaluate hazards, vulnerability and capacities. Systematic assessment of risks is a key input to preparedness and mitigation, planning and other aspects of d i i kidecision making.

Risk is characterized as a function of Hazard Vulnerability and Capacity;Risk is characterized as a function of Hazard, Vulnerability, and Capacity; Risk and vulnerability assessments

contribute to DRR and EM decision making

Risk Assessment Roadmap

Purpose, Goals, and Objectives of Risk Assessmentp , , j

Scale

P ti i ti d R lParticipation and Roles

Characterize A l Ri k C i tAcknowledge

andCharacterize Risk

DefinitionsConceptualization

Analyze Risk

MethodsData Requirements

Communicate Risk

Representation

and Address

Risk

ConceptualizationKey Components

and Categories

and CollectionExecution

ReportingDissemination

PolicyPlanningMitigation

MainstreamingMainstreamingEtc.Standardization/Interoperability

AADMER and the Hyogo Framework for ActionFramework for Action

The Parties to this Agreement,

RECALLING ALSO th H D l ti d th

g

…RECALLING ALSO the Hyogo Declaration and the Hyogo Framework for Action set out by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January 2005, which, among others, stress the need to strengthen and when necessary develop co-ordinated regional approaches, and create or upgrade regional policies, operationalcreate or upgrade regional policies, operational mechanisms, plans and communication systems to prepare for and ensure rapid and effective disaster response in situations that exceed national coping capacitiessituations that exceed national coping capacities

Summary of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-

20152015www.unisdr.org

Summary of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-

20152015

For Implementation and Follow-up, Regional Organizations

• Promoting regional programmes for technical cooperation,

Are Tasked with:

g g p g p ,capacity development, development of methodologies and standards for hazard and vulnerability monitoring and assessment, information sharing, and effective mobilization of resourcesg,

• Undertaking and publishing regional and sub-regional baseline assessments

• Coordinating and publishing reviews on progress and support• Coordinating and publishing reviews on progress and support needs, and assisting countries in preparation of national summaries

• Establishing specialized regional collaborative centers• Supporting the development of regional mechanisms and

capacities for early warning, including for tsunami

AADMER Part I

Article 2:

The objective of this Agreement is to provide effective mechanisms to achieve substantial reduction of disaster losses in lives and in the social economic and environmental assets of the Parties and tosocial, economic and environmental assets of the Parties, and to jointly respond to disaster emergencies through concerted national efforts and intensified regional and international co-operation. This h ld b d i th ll t t f t i bl d l tshould be pursued in the overall context of sustainable development

and in accordance with the provisions of this Agreement.

Article 3.1:

The Parties shall give priority to prevention and mitigation, and thus shall take precautionary measures to prevent, monitor and mitigate disasters.

AADMER Part II: Risk Identification and Monitoring

1 Identify Disaster Risks Covering:

Identification and Monitoring

1. Identify Disaster Risks, Covering:• Natural and Human Induced Hazards• Risk Assessment• Monitoring of Vulnerabilities• Disaster Management Capacities

2 Ri k L l B d A d C i i2. Risk Levels Based on Agreed Criteria 3. Communicate to AHA Centre at Regular

IntervalsIntervals4. AHA Centre to Consolidate and Disseminate

Risk Information, and May Conduct Analyses , y yon Regional Level Implications

Disaster Characterized by UNISDR (2009)by UNISDR (2009)

Components of Disaster RiskDisaster Risk

EventHazard

CharacteristicsIn Exposed Area

Exposure/Affected Area

Vulnerabilityof Exposed

El t

Level ofDisruption

Beyond

Human-EnvironmentS t

Elements

Coping Capacity

Beyond Ability to Cope

Systemp g p yof ExposedElements

C i iConnectivity

Risk Assessment Characterized by UNISDR (2009)y ( )

A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk byA methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analysing potential hazards and evaluating existing

conditions of vulnerability that could pose a potential threat or harm to people, property, livelihoods and the

environment on which they depend.

Risk assessments (and associated risk mapping) include: a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, f f , y,frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios This seriesalternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios. This series of activities of activities is sometimes known as a risk analysis process.

Risk Assessments

• Can Be Qualitative or Quantitative• Can Be Technically and Thematically Simple or

Complex• Multi Hazard or Single Hazard• Multi-Hazard or Single Hazard• Are Performed for Communities, Sectors, Systems or

Objects• Should Support Larger DRR and EM Goals• Generally, Require Information on:

– Frequency and Intensity of Relevant Hazards– Assets and Resources that May Be Exposed– Characteristics that Make those Elements More Susceptible to p

Impact and Less Able to Cope– Losses

Considerations

• Like Maps, Estimations and Interpretations of Realityp , p y• Practical Tools to Help Us Do Our Jobs More

Effectively• Address a Limited Number of Factors• What You Include Depends on Purpose, Goals and p p ,

Constraints• In order to effectively support DRR and EM, risk

information must be relevant, accessible, understandable, and easily integrated and applied

• Supporting structures are important to success

Risk Assessment Roadmap

Purpose, Goals, and Objectives of Risk Assessmentp , , j

Scale

P ti i ti d R lParticipation and Roles

Characterize A l Ri k C i tAcknowledge

andCharacterize Risk

DefinitionsConceptualization

Analyze Risk

MethodsData Requirements

Communicate Risk

Representation

and Address

Risk

ConceptualizationKey Components

and Categories

and CollectionExecution

ReportingDissemination

PolicyPlanningMitigation

MainstreamingMainstreamingEtc.Standardization/Interoperability

Questions?

Heather Bell PhDHeather Bell, PhDScience AdvisorEditor-in-Chief, Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public PolicyPacific Disaster [email protected]

www.pdc.orgwww psocommons org/rhcppwww.psocommons.org/rhcpp

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