LOGO Chapter 13 Risk Analysis Your Site Here Presented By: Singhzee and Group Economics
Jun 19, 2015
LOGO
Chapter 13 Risk Analysis
Your Site Here
Presented By:Singhzee and Group
Economics
To study a variety of tools to help managers improve decision making
To understand the concept of expected value
To examine techniques to reduce uncertainty
To understand the concept of expected utility
Objectives
Risk and Probability
Probability Distributions and Expected Value
Comparisons of Expected Profit
Road Map to Decision
The Expected Value of Perfect Information
Measuring Attitudes towards risk
The Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation Measures
of Risk
Certainty Equivalence
Contents
Hazard or a chance of loss
Bigger the chance of loss/Greater the size of loss = the more risky the action
Risk and Probability
Frequency Definition of Probability Proportion of times an outcome occurs Over the long run If the situation exists repeatedly E.g. A dice is thrown Probability of 1 = 1/6 or 0.167
Risk and Probability Ctd…
Subjective Definition of Probability
Managers ‘ Degree of confidence or belief
That event will occur
Used when experiments cannot be repeated
Use of Managers’ judgment
High probability for higher degree of
confidence and vice versa
Risk and Probability Ctd…
Subjective Definition of Probability
Risk and Probability Ctd…
Subjective Definition of Probability For example: Introduction of a new product
Risk and Probability Ctd…
High Demand is more likely
Low Demand is less likely
75%
25%
Both equally likely
50%- 50%
Probability Distributions
A Table listing All possible outcomes Probability of their occurrence
Expected Value
Weighted Average Of the profit of each outcome to its profit Weights = Probability of their occurrence
Events Probability Profit P*
New Robot developed in 1 yr 0.6 $1,000,000 $600,000
New Robot not developed in 1 yr 0.4 -$600,000 -$240,000
$360,000
Comparison of Expected Profit
To decide the course of action For example: Jones Corporation
Decision Alt Events Profit P P* ExpProfit
Increase price
Ad Campaign Successful
$800,000 0.5 $400,000
$100,000Ad Campaign Unsuccessful
-$600,000 0.5 -$300,000
Do not increase price
$200,000
Road Map to Decision
Decision Tree
Visualization strategic future
Series of choices
Decision Fork
o Choice/Decision Alternative
o Square/Decision Node
Chance Fork
o Events influencing outcome
o Dotted or Circular Node
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Event 1
Event 2
EVPI
Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI)
How much would you pay to gain access to perfect information?
CompletelyAccurate
Information
About Future
Outcomes
Increase in Expected
Profit
ToReduce
Uncertainty
EVPI Continued…
EVPI=Expected Profit with Perfect Information- Expected Profit without Perfect
Information Example:
Research Survey ReportSurvey says Prob Decision Profit Prob*Profit
Campaign Successful 0.5 Increase $800,000 $400,000
CampaignUnsuccessful 0.5
Do not Increase $200,000 $100,000
Total Expected Profit with Perfect Information $500,000
Total Expected Profit without Perfect Information $200,000
EVPI Continued…
EVPI=Expected Profit with Perfect Information -Expected Profit without Perfect Information
= $500,000 - $200,000= $300,000
Access to Perfect Information
Profit Increase by $300,000
Measuring Attitudes toward risk: The Utility Approach
Certain Profit$2,000,000
Gamble(50/50)$4,100,000
-$60,000
Expected profit =0.5($4100000)+0.5(-$60000)= $2020000
Small Business Managers
Large Business Managers
Constructing a Utility Function
Utility Function=Level of satisfaction
Expected Utility
Sum of utility of each outcome times probability of
the outcome’s occurrence
Constructing a Utility Function Example: Tomco Oil Corporation
Constructing a Utility Function
Payoffs Utility(U)
$500,000 50
$300,000 10
$100,000 20
$0 10
-$90,000 0
Example: Tomco Oil Corporation
Attitudes towards Risk
Three Types
Risk Averter
Risk Lover
Risk-Neutral
Risk Averter
Choice: Certain outcome
Risk Lover
Choice: Uncertain outcome
Risk-Neutral
Maximization of expected wealth
Regardless of risk
Measures of Risk
2.
•Example:
•Jones Corporation
•Investment Decision
for a new plant
1. •Dispersion of Probability Distribution
• Profit from the Decision
Magnitude of negative outcomes Dispersion of Probability distribution
Measures of Risk
For Example: Jones Corporation Decision to invest in a
new plant
Panel A
Panel B
(1)Standard Deviation
Most frequently used metric for dispersion Square root of the deviation of expected values
from payoffs Absolute measure of risk
For Example:
E(∏)=0.3(1)+0.2(0.4)+0.3(-0.6) = $0.2
$1 m
• 0.3
$0.2m
• 0.4
-$0.6
• 0.3
(1)Standard Deviation
Payoffs($) Probability
1 0.3 0.16 0.192
0.2 0.4 0 0
-0.6 0.3 0.16 0.192
0.384
Higher Standard Deviation Higher Risk
(2)Coefficient of Variation(V)
Relative measure of risk Ratio of S.D(σ) to Expected Profit [E(∏)]
Lower the V better the risk-return trade off
Adjusting the Valuation Model for Risk
Effects of managerial decision
PV of future profits
Certainty Equivalent Approach
Certainty Equivalent
A guaranteed return
someone would accept,
Instead of taking a chance on a higher, but
uncertain, return.
Example: Job Vs Own Business
Salary=Certainty equivalent
Certainty Equivalent Approach
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Sub Title Sub Title
Adjustment of Discount Rate Construction of Indifference Curve Estimation of Risk Premium
r=sum of riskless rate of return+risk premium
Use of adjusted Discount rate
A
B
C
D
1 2 3 4
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r=8+4=12%
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