Riding Perfect Storm Slides 02-08-2012 CI Totten ARI-NUS

SOURCE

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIOHealthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth

Michael P. Totten,Senior Advisor, CI Singapore

Presentation at Asia Research Institute, NUS

February 09, 2012

Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

2050 Growth Scenarios

Asia Will Account for 70% of World’s Added Capital Stock between 2030-2050

Asia’s march to prosperity will be led by 7 economies, 2 already developed and 6 fast growing middle income converging economies.

Between 2010 and 2050, these 7 economies would account for nearly 90% of total GDP growth in Asia more than half of global GDP growth.

Engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies

Asia will account for 55% of global output in 2050

Asia’s urban population will double by 2050

This “youth bulge” wraps itself around the center of the globe, with nearly 90 % of today’s young people growing up in developing countries where barriers to opportunity remain high.

The world’s current youth cohort — 1.2 billion young people ages 15 to 25 — is the largest in human history

Avoiding & Averting Traps

Large and increasing inequities within countries could undermine social cohesion and political stability.

Individual countries risk falling into Middle Income Trap due to a host of domestic economic, social and political challenges.

Intense competition for finite natural resources (energy, water and fertile land) unleashed by this growth, as the newly affluent Asians aspire to higher standards of living.

Rising disparities across countries and sub-regions could destabilize the region and halt its growth momentum.

Climate Destabilization with increased natural disaster), as well as associated water shortages, could threaten agricultural production, coastal populations and major urban areas.

Almost all countries face the overarching challenge of governance and institutional capacity.

Outcome fraught with multiple risks & challenges

Projection Asia Energy Supply & Demand

GT

Asia will lead global energy demand

And energy-related CO2 emissions

Get used to riding Perfect Storms

Your Future – Business as Usual

Riding perfect storms for people, profit & planet

Why success always starts with failure

Riding the Perfect Storm meets Only the Paranoid Survive

Unprecedented

Challenges of

Historical & Global

Magnitude

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Planetary Boundaries TODAYExceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Planetary Boundaries 2150Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

CLIMATE CHANGE

Specie

s

extin

ctio

n

Species extinction by humans

1000x natural background rate

09.02.2012 26Source: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB

Indonesia India Brazil

21%

79%

16%

84%

10%

90%

25%

75%

47%

53%

89%

11%

99 million 352 million 20 millionEcosystem services

dependency

Ecosystem services

Recommendations:

Natural capital and poverty reduction

Ecosystem services as a

% of classical GDP

Ecosystem services as a

% of ―GDP of the Poor‖

US$ 6.6 trillionEstimated annual environmental costs from global

human activity equating to 11% of global GDP in 2008

US$ 2.2 trillionCost of environmental damage caused by the world’s

3,000 largest publicly-listed companies in 2008.

>50%The proportion of company earnings that could be at risk from environmental costs in an equity portfolio weighted

according to the MSCI All Country World Index.

Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors, Trucost Plc, commissioned by UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and UNEP Finance Initiative, 2011, www.trucost.com

http://www.trucost.com/

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption

becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing

Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry

http://www.wri.org/

Fishing down the Food Web

Oceans

Acid

ifyin

g

55 million years since oceans as acidic –

business-as-usual emissions growth

threaten collapse of marine life food web

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

Global Circulation Models (GCM)

More frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts

More frequent, severe, and prolonged wildfires

More frequent, severe, and prolonged floods

Carl Folke, A ° sa Jansson, Johan Rockstro¨m, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Cre´pin, Gretchen Daily, Kjell Danell, Jonas Ebbesson, Thomas Elmqvist, Victor Galaz, Fredrik Moberg, Ma°ns Nilsson, Henrik O¨ sterblom, Elinor Ostrom, A ° sa Persson, Garry Peterson, Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen, Brian Walker, Frances Westley, Reconnecting to the Biosphere, AMBIO (2011) 40:719–738, DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Multiple Cascading Social-Ecological Crises

What’s Left?

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

www.armsflow.org/

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year

1950 2005

http://www.armsflow.org/

Unending

Resource

Wars &

Conflicts

MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; Epstein et al, New York Academy of Sciences, 2010

LINFEN, CHINAthe most polluted city on

earth. Where, if one puts

laundry out to dry, it will

turn black before finishing

drying. Spending one day

in Linfen is equivalent to

smoking 3 packs of

cigarettes

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Clim

ate

Ca

tastro

ph

es

900ppm

Par

ts p

er

Mill

ion

CO

2

Past planetary mass extinctions

triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

TODAY: 387PPM

Where we will be by 2100

Top 15 nation populations exposed to sea level rise today & 2070

Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (pop)

Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (assets)

MIT Temperature Study

• Danger2009 MIT Study:95% chance that “Business-as-usual” temperature increase will exceed 3.5ºC in 2095; and a 50% chancetemperature will exceed 5ºC!

10° ←>0%

Negative Tipping Points

Source: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, www.pnas.org/.

http://www.pnas.org/

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction

MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL

Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."

… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

Martin Weitzman

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf

Social Cost of Carbon

Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon, 2011, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tufts Univ., www.e3network.org

http://www.e3network.org/

Target CO2:

< 350 ppm

To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

<350 ppm is Possible, But…

Essential Requirements

1. Quick Coal Phase-Out NecessaryAll coal emissions halted in 20 years

2. No Unconventional Fossil FuelsTar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates

3. Don’t Pursue Last Drops of OilPolar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land

James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

>$/GDP/cap

SwitchAsia, Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption in Asia, Consumer Book No. 3, citing WWF 2006,

The path towards sustainable consumption:Responding to increasing demand without inflating ecological footprints

Can WE

Avert Multiple Catastrophes,

Avoid Irreversible Consequences,

and Make the Shift to

Healthy, Sustainable Economies?

Ken Caldeira

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS

INFORMATICS NANOTECH

AUTOROBOTICS

CLIMATE in 4 “Bumper Stickers”

Your grandchildren’s lives are important

We need to buy insurance for the planet

Climate damages are too valuable to have prices

Some costs are better than others

Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

Your grandchildren’s lives are important


Climate Change is a long-term problem over many centuries, with a non-zero probability of catastrophic , irreversible events and credible worst cases involving the end of much of human and other life on the planet.

Using the right Discount Rate

Discount rates based on market interest rates ,or rate of return on financial investments, are more appropriate for shorter term investments with an average pattern of market risks.

Investments in climate protection, however, bear a closer resemblance to insurance, because it is a risk-reducing investment.

Climate damages are too valuable to have prices


Among the most important impacts of unchecked climate change are increased losses of human lives. Many cost-benefit analyses assign an income-based value of a life.

But any price for lives, high or low, creates the misleading impression that lives can be traded for other things of comparable value. A policy that kills 100 people now in order to save 300 other lives 10 years from now is not equally successful: there is no way to compensate the 100 people who paid the initial cost.

As Kant put it centuries ago, some things have a price, or relative worth, while other things have a dignity, or inner worth.

Some costs are better than others


While the benefits of climate protection involve the priceless values of human life, nature, and the future, the costs consist of producing and buying goods and services, i.e., things that have prices.

In the SHORT run, economic theories of market equilibrium often deny existence of costless or negative-cost opportunities for emissions reductions;

In the MEDIUM term, the same theories overlook the employment and other benefits that result from climate policies;

In the LONG term, the most important effect is the pace of innovation in energy technologies, another subject on which conventional economics has little to offer.

We need to buy insurance for the planet

Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?, citing Martin Weitzman

The probability of a residential fire is less than half a percent, yet mortgages require fire insurance.

The worst climate catastrophe is inescapably unknowable – but current knowledge indicates the 99th percentile of climate sensitivity parameters could be 10°C or higher.

“such high temperatures have not been seen for hundreds of millions of years…it would effectively destroy planet Earth as we know it. At a minimum this would trigger mass species extinctions and biosphere ecosystem disintegration matching or exceeding the immense planetary die-offs associated with a handful of such previous geoclimate mega-catastrophes in Earth’s history.”

Probability of house burning down? Less than 1%YET>80% homeowners buy hazard insurance

Probability of catastrophic climate disasters? Over 50%YET>Half of USA essentially says cannot afford climate insurance

Insurance is the response to the desire to avoid or control worse-case scenarios

While non-linear complex

adaptive systems pervade

existence, humans have a

strong propensity to think

and act as if life is linear,

uncertainty is controllable,

the future free of surprises,

and planning is predictable

and compartmentalized

into silos.

Normal distributions are

assumed, fat-tail futures

are ignored.

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too

differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3

knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/

David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/

David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/

http://www.envirobase.info/

FinanceCompetence

Power networks

Governance / values Rights / dutiesWill networks

ArtsSciences

Knowledge networks

MessagesMedias

Documentary networks

TrustSocial roles

Personal networks

Equipment / technologyHealth / environment

Bodily networks

Collective

Intelligence

CULTURALCAPITAL

BIOPHYSICALCAPITAL

ETHICAL CAPITAL

EPISTEMICCAPITAL

PRACTICALCAPITAL

SOCIAL CAPITAL

Pierre Levy, 2008, Beyond Semantic Web, Semantic Space, WKD Conference

Getting to Yes!! Riding the Perfect Storm with triple strength

SOURCE

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

Summary PointsThe Role of Finance Related to

Climate Security and Energy Security

“Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back” now offer a multi-trillion dollar global pool of savings for companies and institutions, with high ROIs, and myriad ancillary values and co-benefits beyond climate/energy security

Electric, Gas & Water Utilities incented to deliver least-cost, least-risk utility services to the point of use could be source of tens of trillions of dollars of finance

Sourcing standards-based, multiple-benefits conservation carbon offsets (CCB) is a key part of a cost & risk-minimizing portfolio for addressing multiple securities (climate, energy, economic, ecosystem services, conflicts)

Triple S Portfolio

Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success

Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become

climate positive and revenue positive

Ambitious, Continuous

Efficiency GainsSmart Green Power

Protecting

Ecosystem Services

Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio

1)SHRINKING - CONTINUOUS EFFICIENCYAdopt decoupling+ and comprehensive IRP for

delivering utility services to the point of use at least

cost & risk, fully including end-use efficiency

improvements and onsite/distributed generation

2)SHIFTING – GREEN/SMART ENERGYSelect only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are

climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow

poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

3)SOURCING - ECOSYSTEM OFFSETSAdd standards-based (CCB) carbon mitigation

options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits

(climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and

promotion of community sustainable development)

Promoting Triple S Portfolio

through Innovative Policies

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

http://www.next10.org/

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

Roles and responsibilities of actors in drivingsustainable consumption

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

sustainable consumption

IBM O’Driscoll

NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf

http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf





NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf






via Emergent Collaboration Networks

Portfolio Part 1 SHRINKINGecological footprints

(emissions, pollutants, waste, water, energy, land, & capital) through aggressive,

ambitious and continuous efficiency gains

$1.2 billion savings over 5 years on energy, water

& chemical costs.670% ROI

“If the chief executive is not totally committed, it won’t succeed,”

Pasquale Pistorio, CEO, STMicro, 1987-2005

So the financial incentive is there, but as CEO Pasquale Pistorio stressed, it’s not enough.

Between 1998-2010 STMicroplanted 10 million trees in reforestation programs in Morocco, Australia, USA, France and Italy (9,000 ha total).

179,000 tons of CO2 sequestered.

SOURCE:Compensate the remaining direct CO2

emissions through reforestation or other carbon sequestration methods, to reach CO2 direct emissions neutrality by 2015.

SHRINK: Reduce total emissions of CO2 due to our energy consumption (tons of CO2 per production unit) by 5% per year:

STMicro Carbon Positive & Revenue Positive

SHIFT: Adopt whenever possible renewable energy sources of wind, hydroelectric, geothermic, photovoltaic, and thermal solar.

Source: STMicroelectronics, Sustainability Report 2010, Our culture of Sustainable Excellence in Practice, www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf

http://www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf

Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40% between 1990-2005.

$9.4 billion savings between 1994-2010

940% ROI

CO2 reductions at negative cost

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or about half the €215

billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type

• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)

• 6 Gt energy efficiency

• 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

Rob Walton, Chairman, Walmart Mike Duke CEO, Walmart

Our License

to Grow is

threatened

2004 in the Bull’s eye

138 million customers every week

100,000 product lines60,000 suppliers in 70 countries

8,500-plus stores and clubs

1.7 million associates

Walmart’s World

70% Walmart Imports from China – 200825% from 14 other nations ( )

Most of Walmart’s impact & cost is imbedded in products

Packaging

Agriculture

Water

Marine

Factories

Indirect Impact = 92%

“We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used to be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming.“

Lee Scott, CEO21st Century LeadershipPresentation Nov. 24, 2005

On Climate Change Action

“We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as quickly as it can.

Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce dependence on oil.”


We are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually in technologies and innovation to do the following:

Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and Distribution Center base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years.

Designing and opening prototype stores 25-30 % more efficient and 30% fewer GHG emissions within the next 4 years.

Increasing fleet efficiency 25% in 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.

Sharing all learning in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)


We are committed to the following:

Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Walmart would show preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program.

Initiating a program in the U.S. that shows preference to suppliers who set their own goals and aggressively reduce their own emissions.

Lee Scott, then-president and CEO of Walmart , speaking to

1000 Suppliers in China, October 2008


Lee Scott, CEO21st Century LeadershipPresentation Nov. 24, 2005

“You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everythingaround you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.”

Sam Walton, founder

2010 Sustainability report 2011 Sustainability report

“These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide.

We know that these commitments won’t even maintain our fast growing company’s overall emissions at current levels.

There is more to do, we are committed to doing our part.”

In 2006, Walmart set a goal of reducing energy consumption & CO2 emissions in the USA by selling 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) by the end of 2007.

Walmart exceeded that goal by selling 137 million.

By the end of 2010, Walmarthad sold more than 460 million CFLs.

“You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everythingaround you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.”

Sam Walton, founder

LED

light-

emitting

diodes

New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs

Augmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital and

operating savings, as well as dramatic reductions in Mercury emissions

LED lighting could displace 100s GWs

Walmart’s Biggest Competitor High Oil & Utility Prices

Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that will create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and low or no GHG sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to integrating these sources into the power grid.

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

CCS

Cost of new delivered electricity (US¢/kWh)

US current

average

1¢/kWh

2¢ 47

93 kg

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2

emissions displaced

per dollar spent on

electrical services

global cumulative electric utility infrastructure investment needed

between 2007 and 2030.

US$26.3 trillion

Source: IEA, in 2007 US$; GEF & Global Smart Energy. 2008. The Electricity Economy, http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/data/uploads/The%20Electricity%20Economy.pdf

12.7 trillion kWhAdditional generation by 2030

http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/data/uploads/The Electricity Economy.pdf

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital

Electricity

Consumption

165 GW

Coal

Power

Plants

Californian‟s have

net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from

revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting

lower cost efficiency over new power plants or

hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China

to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Now use 1/2 global power 30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.

Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.

2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.

$240 billion savings per decade.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts

Support SEEEM

(Standards for Energy

Efficiency of Electric

Motor Systems)

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market

transformation strategy to promote efficient

industrial electric motor systems worldwide

Motor Market TransformationPath to Multi- Trillion Dollar Savings

http://www.seeem.org/

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants

Walmart is on the path to tripling its truck fleet efficiency.

Over the past 2 years Walmartreplaced ~2/3rd of their fleet with more efficient tractors.

Achieved 65% reduction in fuel per ton km over past 5 years.

In 2010, Walmart delivered 57 million more cases, while driving 79 million fewer km.

Avoiding ~40,000 t/CO2 -- equivalent to taking 7,600 U.S. cars off the road.

Source; Building the Next Generation Walmart…Responsibility, 2011 Global Responsibility report

2.7 km/l –529 million liters

[6.4 mpg –140 million gal]

121,000 hectares

Land required if Wal-Mart Class 8 large truck fleet Switched from Fossil Diesel to BioDiesel from Oil Palm Plantations

2.7 km/l – 529 million liters

5.5 km/l – 265 million liters

8 km/l – 176 million liters

40,000 hectares

When the truck fleet achieves triple fuel efficiency

2004 2011

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

biodiesel truck efficiency

$65

$15

pe

r b

arre

l c

os

t

Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency

Land- & Water-Conserving, Oil-Reducing,

Emission-Preventing and Money Saving

Space Cooling60%

Ventilation5%

Lighting18%

Lift/Escalator5%

Equipment8%

Others4%

Tropical Climate(Cooling All Year Round)

HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs? Typical Energy usage Commercial Building

Data is for buildings in hot and humid climate like Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, etc

ASHRAE--Chiller Plant Efficiency

0.5

(7.0)

0.6

(5.9)

0.7

(5.0)

0.8

(4.4)

0.9

(3.9)

1.0

(3.5)

1.1

(3.2)

1.2

(2.9)

NEEDS IMPROVEMENTFAIRGOODEXCELLENT

AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.)(Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping)

New Technology

All-Variable Speed

Chiller Plants

High-efficiency

Optimized

Chiller Plants

Conventional

Code Based

Chiller Plants

Older Chiller

Plants

Chiller Plants with

Correctable Design or

Operational Problems

Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with

42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F

(29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity.

Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton

kW/ton

C.O.P.

0.59 typical Trane Guaranty

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore


Typical Chiller Plant -- Needs Improvement(1.2 kW per ton)


High Performance Chiller Plant (0.56 kW/t)


HOW? Bigger pipes, 45° angles, Smaller chillers

Financial Benefits Before After

Cooling TonHr/Week 80,000 80,000

System kWH/Week 152,000 47,200

kWh/TonH 1.90 0.59

Energy Savings in %

Energy Savings in kWH / Year

Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH

Water usage per year (M3) 0 34,682

Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3)

Estimated Total $ Savings per Year

Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones)

$34,682

$1,055,238

2,724,800

68.95%

5,449,600

$1,089,920

ROI = 29%. Energy Savings over 15 years = S$15M

Daily System Report – August 2009Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensors


1. Ask for 0.60 kW/RT or better for chiller plant.

2. Ask for performance guarantee backed by clear financial penalties in event of performance shortfall.

3. Ask for accurate Measurement & Verification system of at least +-5% accuracy in accordance to international standards of ARI-550 & ASHRAE guides 14P & 22.

4. Ask for online internet access to monitor the plant performance.

5. Ask for track record.


Simple Guide to retrofit success

IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton

Cost of overbuilding & poor efficiency level

• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of

aircon space• Average over-sizing is 2x• Wasted capital stock = 0.025 x 1m

m2 x $4k = US$100 million

• Avg efficiency existing aircon 1.2 kW/t

• Excess aircon energy (1.2 – 0.56), & cost: 0.025 x 1m m2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh = US$17 million/yr

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Cooling Load in kW per ton?Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton

Cost of overbuilding & Code efficiency level

• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of

air-conditioned space• Above average oversizing is 1.5x• Wasted capital stock = 0.025*50% x

1m m2 x $4k = US$50 million

• Code efficiency existing aircon 0.85 kW/t• Excess aircon energy (0.85 – 0.56), & cost: 0.0125 x 1mm2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh= US$12.5 million/yr

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Portfolio Part 2 SHIFTING

To green power and fuel options that are both climate & biodiversity positive, and have the

smallest combined ecological impacts

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National

Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

ANNUAL Wind

Hydro

Photosynthesis

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Annual global energy consumption by humans

SOLAR PHOTONS ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTH’S FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES

1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10. Endogenous learning capacity11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative

externalities & amplifying positive externalities12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption

Dozen Desirable Criteria

Attributes of Green Energy Services

including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?

through the entire lifespan?

from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?

no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?

adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?

low recovery cost and lost time?Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?

scalable production possibilities?

off radar of terrorists or military planners?

A Defensible Green

Energy Criteria Scoring

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste

power

Geo-

thermal

Nat

gas

Bio-

fuels

Oil

imports

Coal

CCS

nuclearTar

sand

Oil

shale

Coal to

liquids

Coal

no

CCS

Promote

CHP +

biowastes

Economically Affordable

Safe

Clean

Secure

Resilient & flexible

Ecologically sustainable

Environmentally benign

Fails gracefully, not catastro

Rebounds easily from failures

Endogenous learning capacity

Robust experience curves

Uninteresting military target

SUN FUSION PHOTONS

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere

worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never

failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility

afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving

economic activity

Over 4000 Walmart stores with white roofs, and standard

practice since 1990Reflects away 80% of solar heat

SOLAR REFLECTORS

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change

Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

World of Solar Reflecting Cities$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction

100 m2

http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

Onshore

Wind Trillion$

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable

resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.

Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.


For cells in production now the energy payback is between 6 months and 5 years!

Myth 1: PV use more energy to make than they

produce over their lifetime

• Si - 2nd most abundant element in Earth’s crust

• The amorphous silicon cells manufactured from one tonof sand could produce as much electricity as burning 500,000 tons of coal

Myth 2: We do not have Enough Raw Materials

Jobs created with every million dollars spent on:

– oil and gas exploration: 1.5

– on coal mining: 4.4

– on producing solar water heaters: 14

– on photovoltaic panels: 17

Myth 3: Solar Doesn’t Create Many Jobs

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by

applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and

in dual-uses. [ Also requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.]

Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Myth 3: Solar requires too much land area

90% of America’s current

electricity could be supplied with

PV systems built in the ―brown-

fields‖— the estimated 2+ million

hectares of abandoned industrial

sites that exist in our nation’s

cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up

Brownfield

Sites w/

PV solar

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%

total US electricity from brownfields

http://www.nrel.gov/

The Global market for solar cells, Washington Post, December 16, 2011, Sources: Photon International, Earth Policy Institute, Wiley Rein.

• The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years.

• Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from €3 to €1 per peak watt (Wp). During that same time production capacity grew 50% per annum.

• China market share rose from 8% in 2008 to over 55% by end of 2010.

• Module prices have dropped to US$1.2–1.5/Wp (crystalline).

SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

Polished

Stone

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,586

2.33

1

+$14,237

2.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,373

1.89

2

+$11,024

1.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV

(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and

Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China Economics of Commercial BIPV

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

http://www.udel.edu/ceep/

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because it

captures both energy savings and savings from

displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV

http://www.nrel.gov/

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,

consume half of a commercial building

electricity.

Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time

lighting, eliminating massive amount of power

plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in

avoided costs.

Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines

Full use of high performance windows in the

U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan

pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as

well as accrue over $15 billion per year of

savings on energy bills.

Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all

personal motorized transportation in China.

120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh –

twice as expensive as solar PV electricity

Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons

for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

http://www.grist.org/article/charging-up



www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide

The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve 40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million African households owning quality portable lights (primarily solar) by 2015.

Lighting Africa contributed to this market acceleration: in 2010 alone, the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africa’s quality tests grew by 70% in Africa.

This resulted in more than 672,000 people on the continent with cleaner, safer, reliable lighting and improved energy access.

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Portfolio Part 3

SOURCING OFFSETSremaining footprints by prevention of threatened

tropical forests (REDD+) and other intact ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, peat lands, grass lands) through

standards-based conservation carbon offsets

Protecting Critical Wilderness to Offset Operation Footprints

In 2005, Wal-Mart adopted the goal to permanently offset the land footprint of all their USA stores and distribution centers by protecting critical wildlife habitat in the USA.

Walmart’s $35 million donation over 10 years enables purchasing enough land to account for its stores current land-use, as well as the company’s development throughout the 10-year period --roughly 60,000 hectares.

High Quality Multi-Benefit

$4 million to protect the Tayna and

Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in

eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation

area in Peru.

Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of

CO2 from being released into the

atmosphere.

Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity

Carbon Standards.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO214 million hectares burned each

year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons

CO2 per year. More emissions

than world transport system of

cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

GHG levels

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO25 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year

in mitigation services available in

poor nations, increasing their

revenues by billions of dollars

annually ; and saving better-off

nations billions of dollars.

GHG levels

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2

mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)

~$100 billion~3 ¢ per kWh

~$18 billion~0.5 ¢ per kWh

$ per ton CO2

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

0

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned7 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO21/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD tradePoverty reduction

Prevent Species loss

A win-win-win outcome

A win-win-win outcome

SOURCE

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO PARTNERS

Amory Lovins, select publications 1976 to 2012

Vehicle-to-Grid

Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet

Convergences & Emergences

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTKGP0O5f5Y&feature=relatedwww.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8

hwww.techonomy.com/#te10

Buildings

Commercial building energy efficiency supply curveby end use, 2050

Energy savings for integrative design cases(new residential)

Shannon Smith, In Germany, house powers car, SmartPlanet, December 30, 2011, www.smartplanet.com/

Zero Emissions Home and Electric Car

http://www.smartplanet.com/

Beddington Zero Energy Design, UK

http://www.greenpacks.org/2009/07/16/william-mcdonough-partners-complete-the-cradle-to-cradle-flow-house/

Cradle-to-Cradle McDonough Flow House, New Orleans

http://sustainablecities.dk/en/city-projects/cases/venlo-first-cradle-to-cradle-region-in-the-world

Venlo, NL – First Cradle-to-Cradle region in the World

Utilities

2050 installed capacity by case

*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable costs implicitly include many complex subsidies.

Technology capital cost* projections, 2010-2050

U.S. wind & solar PV capital cost trends 1976-2010

Near-term cost reductions for ground-mounted PV System

Present value costs of the U.S. electricity system 2010-2060

Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050

Industry

Transport

Lightweight autos needn’t cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleet shows little or no correlation between lighter weight and higher prices.

Man

ufac

ture

r’s S

ugge

sted

Ret

ail P

rice

Crash-safety risk with lightweight materials in automotive applications is only perceived, not supported by evidence. Lighter

autos are actually safer than heavier ones the same size.

Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle sizebased on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road

Automotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber-based autos vs. steel-based ones due to greatly reduced tooling and simpler assembly and joining. However, such cost savings are currently overshadowed with carbon fiber material prices ~$16/lb.

Comparison of carbon fiber vs. steel manufacturing costs

U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & withoutpolicy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050

Cost reduction potential of powertrains

Cumulative volume-based learning curvesfor battery packs and fuel cell systems

U.S. installed wind & solar power capacitiesand projections, 1990-2050

Hourly operability in a high-penetration renewables scenario

Hourly operability on a microgrid

Variable renewable output (hourly)

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

The Power in the Photon Bit stream

Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year

Market share of different PV technologies1999-2010

BIPV (mccabe)

FINANCING

Innovative Solar Financing Options

Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the Solar

Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,

WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century

Catalyzing solar smart poly-microgrids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy

provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based

on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with

administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously

calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of

urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.

Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be

reproducible at any magnification or reduction.

Sierpinski ―Pyramid‖

Fractal Market Model

Self-limited plasmonic weldingof silver nanowire junctions

Erik C. Garnett, Wenshan Cai, Judy J. Cha, Fakhruddin Mahmood, Stephen T. Connor, M. Greyson Christoforo, Yi Cui, Michael D. McGehee & Mark L. Brongersma, Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions, Nature Materials, February 05, 2012

When two nanowires lay crisscrossed light will generate plasmon waves at the place where the two nanowires meet, creating a hot spot. The beauty is that the hot spots exist only when the nanowires touch, not after they have fused. The welding stops itself. It's self-limiting. This ability to heat with precision greatly increases the control, speed and energy efficiency of nanoscale welding.

Nanoshell whispering galleries improve thin solar panels

Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparable to micron-thick layers with 50-nm-thick shells, reducing the film deposition time necessary to achieve strong absorption from hours to minutes.

Quantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposed to bulk materials such as silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or Cadmium Telluride (CdTe). Quantum dots have bandgaps that are tunable across a wide range of energy levels by changing the quantum dot size, in contrast to bulk materials where the bandgap is fixed by the choice of material composition. This property makes quantum dots attractive for multi-junction solar cells, where a variety of different energy levels are used to extract more power from the solar spectrum.

Quantum-dot solar PV cells

Collodial-quantum-dot PVs using atomic-ligand passivation

16 of the inorganic CQD devices

Quantum dots are nanoscale semiconductors that capture light and convert it into an energy source. The dots can be sprayed on to flexible surfaces, including plastics. Enables production of solar cells less expensive and more durable than the more widely-known silicon-based version.

Titania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the silicon nanodomes like a waffle imprinted by the iron. A thin layer of batter is spread on a transparent, electrically conductive base. This batter is mostly titania, a semi-porous metal that is also transparent to light.

Next, they use their nano waffle iron to imprint the dimples into the batter. Then layer on some butter – a light-sensitive dye – which oozes into the dimples and pores of the waffle. Lastly, some syrup is added – a layer of silver, which hardens almost immediately.

When all those nanodimples fill up, the result is a pattern of nanodomes on the light-ward side of the silver. The silver acts as a mirror, scattering unabsorbed light back into the dye for another shot at collection, plus, the light interacts with the silver nanodomes to produce plasmonic effects.

Solar cell nanodomes and plasmonics

Nanoshell whispering galleries Optical simulations of Silicon spherical nanoshells

Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Graphene

Graphene is an allotrope of carbon, whose structure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2-bonded carbon atoms that are densely packed in an atom-scale honeycomb crystal lattice.

Solar cell nano cones

The n-type nanoncones are made of zinc oxide and serve as the junction framework and the electron conductor.

The p-type matrix is made of polycrystalline cadmium tellurideand serves as the primary photon absorber medium and hole conductor.

Key features of the solar material include its unique electric field distribution that achieves efficient charge transport; the synthesis of nanocones using inexpensive proprietary methods; and the minimization of defects and voids in semiconductors.

Because of efficient charge transport, the new solar cell can tolerate defective materials and reduce cost in fabricating next-generation solar cells.

http://www.physorg.com/tags/zinc+oxide/

http://www.physorg.com/tags/cadmium+telluride/

Nano pillar solar cell arrays

Cerium Solar reactor (Haile caltech)

Solar roll 50 sq meters(Ascent)

Urban Solar Canopies

Solar Ivy

Tensile Solar Structures

Onshore

Wind Trillion$


Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.

Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.


Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable

resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Figures of Merit

Great Plains area1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South

Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =

Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of

Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

http://www.nci.org/T

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2

mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia --generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

Source: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html

Grasslands of the World

http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html

Offshore Wind Trillion$

China will construct 5 GW of offshore wind projects by 2015 and 30 GW by 2030.

Vesta 7 MW wind turbineChina Qingdao 5 MW wind turbine

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuruí dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience

50: 766–75,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International

Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

DAMReservoir

Area

(km2)

Generating

Capacity

(MW)

km2/

MW

Emissions:

Hydro

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions:

CC Gas

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions

Ratio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4

Curuá-

Una72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5

Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58

Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies

Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2

PV NUCLEAR

Billion $ 2008 constant

Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009)

vs.

Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)

$4.2

$85

Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water 2008.pdf



Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach

adulthood stunted for good.






4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of

dollars in lost income to the poor






A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor

• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection

• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)

• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-

water%202008.pdf




WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options






WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.






Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of

our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of

operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus

creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities

for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water

to outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user

fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

WaterHealth International






Amount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle.

Muenster Planning Office, August 2001

Mobility Services & Acccess

Riding Perfect Storm Slides 02-08-2012 CI Totten ARI-NUS

Documents

half of global gdp growth

growth scenarios asia

global output

safe operating space

growth momentum

total gdp growth

usual emissions growth

natural capital