Riding Out the - CGIAR

Dr. Mathew Kurian

Riding Out the Perfect Storm

The Case for Integrative Modelling

via Place-based Observatories

STELLENBOSCH, SOUTH AFRICA10 - 12 OCTOBER, 2018

Win more, lose less:

Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

United Nations University (UNU-

FLORES), Dresden, Germany

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Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Framing a Policy Relevant Research Agenda at the United Nations University (2013-18)

The Problem

• The absence of a comparable framework for monitoring SDG 6

Engaging the Policy Process

• Regional consultations in Indonesia, Brazil, Jordan, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Malawi

Threshold Identification, Expert Opinion for Indicator Selection & Model Validation

• Ministerial agreements for data sharing

UNHABITAT (co-custodian agency for SDG 6.3) recommends to the UN High Level Political Forum:

“A sub-indicator on reuse would respond to the full aspirations of indicator 6.3.1, and would encourage better assessment of reuse potential, in support of target 6.4 on water scarcity”

UN-WATER SDG 6 Synthesis Report, June 2018: 58

Organizing Models and Data for SDG Monitoring: The UNU Nexus Observatory

Kurian et.al, 2018a

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Agriculture Research for Development: Design Issues

1. Planetary Boundaries, the Circular Economy & Wastewater Reuse in Agriculture

a. The Scale inconsistency challenge: 20 million hectares under wastewater irrigation globally

b. Non- alignment of incentives for effective reuse within a multi-level governance structure

c. Weak feedback mechanisms between investments in markets, infrastructure and outcomes

2. De-coupling of Economic Growth from Agricultural Productivity: Political Economy Matters

a. GDP growth & labour force participation

b. Secular decline in agricultural water withdrawals relative to urban water supplies

c. Sub-division of agricultural land in high-density tropics

d. Changing diets and expansion of the food processing industry

e. Transnational corporations for seeds, fertilizers and pesticides & separation of power

3. How a Nexus Framework can Enhance the Relevance of Global Public Goods Research

a. Pursue normative change by understanding typologies of trade-offs for global risks

b. Downscale global environmental models to pilot policy instruments targeting water, energyor food security

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Source: Governing the Nexus of Water-Energy and Food: Resources, Risks and Unintended Consequences of Development, Kurian, Scott, Reddy, Nardocci and Boer., 201x (Ambio, under review)

Prioritizing Research that Improves our Understanding of Nexus Thresholds

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Implications for Global Public Goods Research: Measuring Attributable Success

Prioritization: Piloting Policy Instruments (Guidelines, Circulars, Notifications, Standards and Directives) with potential to aid uptake of technical options at scale

Approach: A role for place-based observatories in supporting valorisation of data and models aimed at the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of case studies that pilot-test and validate Nexus typologies and thresholds in development practice.

Organizational Performance Evaluation Metrics: UNU’s 8 steps to achieving research impact- horizon scanning, formalized measurable goals, regional consultation, strategic communication, political negotiation, scientific validation, knowledge translation and political endorsement.