Rich Naden/Chuck Maxwell Southwest Area Predictive Services.

2011 Fire Season Outlook: An initial look at Weather/Climate/Fuels

Rich Naden/Chuck Maxwell Southwest Area Predictive Services

Key Drivers to 2011 Winter Weather / Climate

Negative AO (Arctic Oscillation)Strong La Nina!Negative NAO (North Atlantic

Oscillation)Low Solar Activity Negative PDO (Pacific Decadal

Oscillation)OK….so what does this climate index alphabet soup mean for the Southwest

Area Climate expectations and Fire Season 2011 ????

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Past 20 Weeks

Blue – Below Average Sea Surface TemperaturesYellow/Orange – Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures

La Niña General Impacts

JFM Precip & Temp Anomalies for Mod.-Strong La Niña

However…this has been an atypical La Nina winter weather pattern so far….but WHY?!?!

January

February

- AO and Low Solar Output appear to be presently dominating the pattern

So how has this affected High Temperatures??

Past 30 Days Past 14 Days

Past 7 Days 2011 so far…

Precipitation??

Past 30 Days Past 14 Days

Past 7 Days 2011 so far…

Drought Situation??

Past 9 months Past 6 months

Past 3 months Past month

Drought Situation??

SNOTEL - River Basin Snow Water Content

Fuels Considerations

Lots of fine herbaceous fuels, limited compactionUsual strain of dry/drought conditions on live and dead

fuel moisture dynamics

July 15th 2010

September 14th 2010

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – rest of JAN

• Warmer than normal western ½ to 1/3 of Arizona• Cooler than normal southeastern 1/3 of New Mexico• Drier than normal northwestern ½ of Arizona• Best chance of moisture across the eastern ½ of New Mexico into west Texas

Temperatures Precipitation

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – FEB

< TEMP >

< PRECIP >

Likely to start February Most of the remainder of February

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – MAR Strong La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – MAR

< TEMP

< PRECIP

Strong La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies

Moderate La Nina 500MB Height Anomalies

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – APR-MAY

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – APR-MAY Strong La Nina Surface Temp.

Anomalies

Moderate La Nina Surface Temp. Anomalies

Strong La Nina Surface Precip. Anomalies

Moderate La Nina Surface Precip. Anomalies

< TEMP >

< PRECIP >

Upcoming Weather Pattern/Climate Anomalies Forecast – JUL-SEP

Decent Monsoonal Moisture More than Likely!!??

Strong and Moderate La Nina’s

Moderate La Nina’s

• Despite an overall drier weather pattern region-wide expect the focus to remain across the southeastern ½ of New Mexico into west Texas• Coolish pattern across the Intermountain West could develop and remain in charge by March/April-May across the northwestern ½ or so of AZ likely leading to a slow start to Fire Season 2011 for western sections• Areas further south/east likely warmer and will eventually be the recipients of more frequent wind combined with the milder temperatures• Higher elevations have had some decent snowfall over the past month or so providing some compaction of fuels • Potential remains elevated for an active late winter>early summer fire season…especially southern & eastern halves of SWA

Forecast Points for Fire Weather

THE ENDQuestions?