Riccardo Fiorito1 Growth and Development: International ... · Growth and Development: International Comparisons (PEC11_5) ... Kingdom 1500 2000 1400 15000 12000 10500 950 300 550

Riccardo Fiorito1

Growth and Development: International Comparisons (PEC11_5) October 2011

1. Angus Maddison’s historical reconstruction

Tab1: Population in 10 European Countries (1500-2003) - Thousands

Year Austria Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

1500 2000 1400 15000 12000 10500 950 300 550 650 3942 1600 2500 1600 18500 16000 13100 1500 400 760 1000 6170 1700 2500 2000 21471 15000 13300 1900 500 1260 1200 8565 1820 3369 3434 31250 24905 20176 2333 970 2585 1986 21239 1860 4235 4740 37300 35633 25914 3318 1596 3860 2510 28660 1890 5394 6096 40014 47607 31702 4535 1997 4780 2951 37485 1914 6806 7723 41476 66096 37526 6277 2472 5659 3897 46049 1920 6455 7552 39000 60894 37398 6848 2635 5876 3877 46821 1930 6684 8076 41860 65423 41132 7884 2807 6131 4022 45672 1940 6705 8346 39600 70244 44734 8879 2973 6356 4206 47991 1950 6935 8639 41829 68375 47105 10114 3265 7014 4694 50312 1970 7467 9638 50787 77783 53661 13032 3877 8043 6267 55632 1985 7558 9858 55171 77685 56731 14491 4152 8356 6565 56620 2003 8188 10289 60181 82398 57998 16151 4546 8878 7319 60095

Source: A. Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Oecd, 2003 [Obviously, the oldest data are less reliable. More details on the reconstruction methods are available in the source.]

Tab2: Per Capita GDP in Ten European Countries (1500-2001) Year Austria Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland United

Kingdom1500 707 875 727 688 1100 761 640 695 632 798 1600 837 976 871 791 1100 1381 760 824 750 974 1700 993 1144 910 910 1100 2130 900 977 890 1250 1820 1218 1319 1135 1077 1117 1838 1104 1198 1090 1706 1860 1778 2293 1892 1639 14472 2377 13623 1382 1745 2830 1890 2443 3428 2376 2428 1667 3323 1777 2086 3182 4009 1914 2876 3923 3236 3059 2543 3868 2530 3048 4233 4927 1920 2412 3962 3227 2796 2587 4220 2780 2802 4314 4548 1930 3586 4979 4532 3973 2918 5603 3712 3937 6246 5441 1940 3959 4562 4042 5403 3505 4831 4088 4857 6397 6856 1950 3706 5462 5271 3881 3502 5996 5463 6739 9064 6939 1970 9747 10611 11664 10839 9719 11967 10033 12716 16904 10767 1985 14757 14977 15901 15140 14096 15283 17365 16189 19584 14165 2001 20225 20924 21092 18677 19040 21721 24577 20562 22263 20127

Source: A. Maddison, op.cit. [Data are in constant prices (1990) Geary-Khamis dollars (1990)]4

1 © Riccardo Fiorito, November 2007 (Revised: October 2011). 2 1861 3 1865 4 The Geary-Khamis dollar index is a sophisticated aggregation method used for international comparisons and combining purchasing power parities (ppp) with international raw material average prices. More details are available in the statistical site of the United Nations: http://unstats.un.org/methods.

2. The parameters of the neoclassical growth model and the actual growth rates

Table. 3 – The Solow Model Parameters and the International Growth Patterns Country y97 y60 g(60, 97) s Edu pop United States

1.00 1.00 1.4 .20 11.9 1.0

Singapore .89 .20 5.4 .35 6.7 1.8 Hong Kong .71 .17 5.2 .20 9.3 1.5

United Kingdom

.72 .60 1.8 .17 9.1 0.3

Japan .62 .20 4.4 .34 9.2 0.5 Finland .67 .47 2.3 .28 9.6 0.4 Mexico .46 .39 1.8 .16 7.0 2.0

Argentina .45 .46 1.3 .14 8.5 1.4 Algeria .28 .27 1.5 .21 4.8 2.6

Fonte: C. I. Jones, Introduction to Economic Growth, Norton, 2002 (2nd edition), Appendix C. The data reported by Jones stem frorm Summers and Heston dataset: A. Heston-R. Summers (1991), The PENN World Table (Mark 5): an expanded set of international comparisons, 1950-1985, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, 106(2), May, 327-68; Education data (edu) are those used by Barro and Lee (International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications, “Oxford Economic Papers”, 2001, July, 541-63. Legend: y97 = Real per capita GDP with respect to the US (1997); y60 = Real per capita GDP with respect to the US (1960); g(60,97) = Real per capita GDP growth (1960-97); s = Average investment/GDP share (1980-97); edu = Average education index (school attendance years): Barro-Lee (2001); pop = Average population growth (1980-97). 3. Major Growth Factors

Table 4 – Economic Growth Factors in A Group of Countries (Average % rates) Country Gross fixed

capital formation

Total hours of

work

Real GDP

TFP Country Gross fixed capirtal

formation

Total hours of

work

Real GDP

TFP

US UK 80-90 2.1 1.7 3.3 0.6 80-90 4.3 0.5 2.7 1.2 90-95 2.2 1.3 2.5 0.5 90-95 -1.4 -1.2 1.7 1.6 95-00 7.6 1.9 4.2 1.1 95-00 5.4 1.1 3.3 1.1 00-04 1.5 0.4 2.4 1.7 00-04 2.4 0.3 2.3 1.5

France Germany 80-90 3.9 -0.6 2.4 1.4 80-90 1.1 -0.4 2.2 1.5 90-95 -1.5 -0.4 1.0 0.0 90-95 -0.9 -1.2 1.9 1.8 95-00 5.2 0.2 2.7 1.4 95-00 2.2 -0.5 1.7 1.3 00-04 1.0 -0.2 1.3 0.5 00-04 -2.9 -0.7 0.5 0.6 Italy Spain 80-90 2.6 0.3 2.2 0.9 80-90 5.7 -0.1 3.0 1.9 90-95 -1.1 -1.0 1.2 1.0 90-95 -0.6 -0.8 1.5 0.9 95-00 6.3 0.7 2.0 0.2 95-00 5.8 4.1 4.0 -0.3 00-04 1.4 1.3 0.9 -1.2 00-04 3.0 2.5 2.5 -0.5

Finland Ireland 80-90 3.9 0.3 3.0 1.5 80-90 1.3 -0.1 3.6 2.7 90-95 -10.9 -3.4 -1.5 0.9 90-95 -0.2 1.1 4.6 3.0 95-00 5.9 1.6 4.9 3.3 95-00 14.1 3.7 9.7 4.4 00-04 1.2 -0.5 2.3 2.0 00-04 1.0 0.9 5.0 2.0

Source: Timmer-Ypma-van Ark (2005), Groningen Growth and Development Center (GGDC): http://www.ggdc.net/

Note: All these graphs (and many others not included here) come from the “snapshots” added by C.I. Jones to his Macroeconomics textbook (Norton, 2008).