Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies The SunShot Team
Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar TechnologiesRevitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies
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The SunShot Team
The The Energy LandscapeEnergy LandscapeWasted energy~55% !!
Units: US quads/yearTotal US Consumption ~ 100 Quads
Impacting the Energy LandscapeImpacting the Energy Landscape
Fundamental Premise for SunShotSunShot…
Subsidy-free solar electricity Subsidy free solar electricity
75% cost reduction by end of the decade
5-6c/kWh at utility-scale
Global CompetitivenessGlobal Competitiveness
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SunShot Program Structure
Photovoltaics (PV) Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -
DOESunShot
DOESunShot
Soft BOSSystems Integration
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Centralized Generation
- large users or utilities -
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SunShot Management StructureManagement Team
Horwitz, Bessel, Le, Ram, Lynn, Pitchumani, Prasher, Sekaric,
Advisory BoardBrinkman, Majumdar,SunShot Fellows Tronstein, Connelly, & Ramesh
Team
Brinkman, Majumdar, Danielson & ERAC
S k h ld
SunShot FellowsSETAA’s
Feds
SunShot Technology Roadmap
Team Effort
StakeholdersIndustry, National Labs,Academia
Listening
Power Electronics & Systems
Roadmap
Balanceof System
Converter Technology
Integrationof System
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(Module, CSP, CPV)
Adam Katherine Lenny Diogenes Aimee Alex
The SunShot Fellows
CohenPhD, Maryland
physics
CrowleyPhD, Rice
math
TinkerPhD, Princeton
chemistry
PlacenciaPhD, Arizona
chemistry
BaileyPhD, Imperial
physics
PolizzottiBS, Pomona
chemistry
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Pathway to SunShot – Residential PV$5 71/W
$5
$6
DC
)
Power ElectronicsBOS HardwareBOS Non-HardwareM d l
$0.42$0.46 $0.30
$0 27
$5.71/W
$4
$5
ice
($/W
D Module$
$2.69
$0.27
$3
yste
m P
r
$2.04
$0 59
$1
$2
nsta
lled
S
$2.15
$0.59
$1.02$0.12$0.19
$1.50/W
$0
$1 In $0.65
$0.54
8
System Price2010
Power Electronics
Cost Reductions
BOS Hardware Soft BOS
Module Efficiency Improvements
Module Manufacturing
SunShot Target
Utility PV – 2011 Reductions
$0 85
$0.16
$0.36
$0.01 $0.29
$3.80/W$4
C)
Power ElectronicsBOS HardwareBOS Non-Hardware$0.85
$1.20
$
$0.19
$3
e ($
/WD
C
BOS Non HardwareModule
$2.79/W$0.18
$0.82
$0 28
$2
yste
m P
rice
$1.95
$0 22 $0.18
$0.10
$0.28 $0.32 $1.00/W
$1
Inst
alle
d Sy
$0.50
$0.22
$0 SunShot
9Cost Reductions
SunShot Target
SunShot Funding Philosophy : CSP
21¢ / kWh
25¢
Thermal StorageReceiver/Heat Transfer
3¢
5¢7¢
15¢
20¢ Receiver/Heat TransferPower PlantSolar Field
kWh)
MURI HOT FluidsCSP SunShot FOA
ARPA-E
4¢
3¢2¢
2¢10¢
15¢
CO
E (
¢/k
Baseload FOAThermal Storage
9¢21¢1¢
4¢ 6¢ / kWh5¢
LC
2¢2¢
¢System Price Solar Power Receiver/ Thermal SunShot
10
y2010 Field Plant Heat Transfer Storage Target
Cost Reductions
FY 2012 Funding by Recipient
Government or Other
Large Business25%
Non-Profit11%
25%
Small Business19%
N ti l National Laboratory
26%
Public & Private Universities
19%
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Phase Transition in the Industry
$400
$450
$500
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$250
$300
$350
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50 $ per kg (nomnom
inal)
$100
$150
$200
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
minal)
$/ W
att (
n
First Solar (left axis)China c-Si (left axis)E.U./U.S./Japan c-Si (left axis)Poly. Cells (left axis)
$0
$50
$0.00
$0.50
Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11Q2 '11Q3'11*
Poly. Wafers (left axis)Polysilicon Spot (right axis)
*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: Estimated Global Module Price: Lazard (11.04.08). Actual Module Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11 & 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11)
Actual Module ASP vs. Analyst Estimates
$4.00
$5.00 China c-SiEstimates Made in 2008Estimates Made in 2009Estimates Made in 2010E i M d i 2011
Divergence between analysts estimates and China module prices
$3.00
inal
)
Estimates Made in 2011
$1 00
$2.00
/ Wat
t (n
omi
$0.00
$1.00
'08
'08
'08
'08
'09
'09
'09
'09
'10
'10
'10
'10
'11
'11
11*
'11
$/
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3'
Q4
In Q1 2009, independent industry analysts were expecting PV module prices to remain strong and above $2/W into 2011
*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: : For 2007-2011 Actual Module Selling Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11). For Analyst Estimates 2008-10: analyst reports, Barclays (5/1/09,11/15/10); Deutsche Bank (5/27/08, 1/23/09, 5/6/10, 1/5/11); Lazard (11/4/08, 4/2/09); Stifel Nicolaus(10/6/09, 4/8/10); UBS(8/22/10, 3/8/11)
Chinese made PV modules are now selling as low as $1.15/W
Barriers-based investments:Cell and module efficiency
$Watt
Manufacturing CostEfficiency JSC VOC FF
60%
70% Theoretical Maximum
43%
63%
40%
50%
ncy
Laboratory Record (cell)
Typical Production (Module)43%
25%20%
29% 29% 29% 29%20%
30%
Efficie Typical Production (Module)
31%18% 15% 13% 12% 10%
2%
20% 20% 17%12%
8%
20%14%
0%
10%
20%
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0%CPV (3J) c‐Si mc‐Si CIGS CdTe a‐Si OPV
Significant role for Basic Science
• Reaching theoretical efficiencies : CdTe, CIGS• Plasmonics• Intermediate Bandgap Solar Cells• Quantum Dots and NanowiresQuantum Dots and Nanowires• Organic PV : Model Experiments• Earth abundant oxides and sulfides
CE
• Photons to Thermochemical Storage• Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit
Advanced light trapping RFO
RM
AN
C
• Advanced light trapping• Biomimetic PV concepts• Novel approaches for charge splitting
PE
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pp g p g• HT Thermal/physical/chemical properties of
salts, fluids
TIME
Overcoming Fundamental Barriers : CdTe, CIGS, CZTSCdTe, CIGS, CZTS
CdTGaAs
(thi fil
Parameter
CdTe (poly on glass)
(thin film single‐crystal)
Eg at 302 K (eV) 1.49 1.43
Voc (V) 0.85 1.11oc ( )FF (%) 75 85.9
Jsc (mA/cm2) 26 29.4sc ( / )Efficiency (%) 17 28
Source: Solar Cell Efficiency tables (version 38), P i PV 2011 l 19 565 72
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Prog. in PV, 2011, vol. 19, pp. 565-72
Enabling “Quantum Leaps” in Technology through Science
Materials Growth
‐ Bulk crystal ‐ Thin film epitaxial‐ Thin film with controlled GBs
f iGrowth ‐ Surface Science‐ Interface control
25% cell demonstration by
2015
Probe‐materials & electro‐optics
Integration
‐ Point defects‐ s, SFs, GBs, etc.‐ Interfaces
Bandgap and defect energies Models &
‐ Device process‐ Device test‐ Efficiency demonstration
proof of concept‐ Bandgap and defect energies Models & calculations
‐ Ab‐initioD i 3d d l
proof of concept
‐ Device 3d models
Solicitation to come out soon…
BRIDGE – Bridging Research Interactions through Collaborative Development Grants in Energy
Goal: Establish process to usher basic science p
developed within BES/NSF into applied technologies program within EERE Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP).
Sources of Basic Energy Research:– Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and
Biosciences (CSGB - BES)– Materials Science and Engineering
(MSE - BES)(MSE BES)– Scientific User Facilities (SUF - BES)– Materials Research (DMR - NSF)
Ch i t (CHE NSF)– Chemistry (CHE - NSF)
PV Variability : A Fundamental Problem20 MW PV Plant in NV–20 MW PV Plant in NV
StStorageForecasting
Examples of Current Storage Technologies
A. Mills, et al,” IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 33-41, 2011.
Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage : A Game Changer
Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage
Current batteries : ~300-500$/kWh : Can we go to 20-30 $/kWh ??g $ Huge potential for Impact Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry,
materials discovery, understanding redoxchemistrychemistry… Interface science : on a beam line, in a electron
i microscope, … Photochemical, Thermochemical approaches Solicitations will come.. Waiting for Hub to be
finalized
Photochemical and Thermochemical Storage
Explore reversible, controllable phase transformations using sunlight …
• Capture Solar or Thermal • Release Energy intoCapture Solar or Thermal Energy
• Store in Chemical/Structural/ Electronic/ Phase Trans
Release Energy into Electrical/Magnetic /Thermal Cycle
• Return to Original StateElectronic/ Phase Trans
• Other approaches
Return to Original State
• Solid state systems
Strategy for Recent and Future CSP FOAs
MURI: HOT Fluids FOAObjective
1. Development of HTF for operation at > 800˚C2 Li id f 0 1300˚C
Funding Opportunity Details Motivation
Enable thermodynamic cycles with ≥50%2. Liquidus range of 0 – 1300˚C3. Other thermophysical properties ≥ solar salt
- Enable thermodynamic cycles with ≥50% net thermal to electric conversion
- FOA targets are large improvements overexisting technology and difficult to achieve
- A multi-disciplinary, multi-university, MURIp y, y,format is being used to address the challenges
Up to $10M total DOE funding over 5 yearsR l b J 2012 (A d b A t Release by Jan. 2012 (Awards by August
2012) Encourage involvement of young CSP
scientists Bring together non-engineering disciplinesBring together non engineering disciplines
to address the problems
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From Science to Technology to Productization
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SunShot IncubatorDOE funding as Catalyst for Private Investment
$2,000 Follow on Private Investment
$1,600
$800
$1,200
Mill
ions
$17 5M DOE
$400
$800 $17.5M DOE Investment
$-
$400
-12 0 12 24 36 48
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2012) 27
Months after Incubator Funding
US excels at Innovation – But lags in manufacturing of innovation
Debt Finance in Solar (2010)
US
Debt Finance in Solar (2010)
VC & PE Investment in Solar (2010)
US9%
US
ROW24% Rest of
World76% 91%
$2.3B
28Source: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11)$44B
Manufacturing
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry”tomorrow s emerging industry.
- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
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Our Sputnik Moment
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1650%
PV Mre
1995: 43%
10
1240%
Module ShipmM
arke
t Sha
r
2000 27%
8
10
20%
30%
ROW
ments (M
W)
U.S
. 2000: 27%
4
6
10%
20% China & TaiwanEuropeJapanU.S. 2011: 4%
0
2
0%
10%U.S. Share
30
00%1990 2000 2010*
Sources: PV News (2/1993, 3/2001, 3/2006) and Navigant Consulting (2/2011)
PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMI)
Part ISolving pre competitive problems
Part IIDeveloping unique innovativeSolving pre‐competitive problems
common across industry (at pilot line manufacturing R&D)
Developing unique, innovative domestic manufacturing processes
(manufacturing at scale)
3 University and Industry Consortia Up to $125M over 5 years 3 to 1 cost leveraging
Up to $50M over 2 years Minimum 3 to 1 cost leveraging
3 to 1 cost leveraging Tools, materials, processes integration
Regional Test Centers : Facilitating Bankability
Vision:– 50kW –2 MW systems for 3 years– Test in multiple climates
V lid f d li bili– Validate performance and reliability
Locations: Albuquerque (Sandia)– Albuquerque (Sandia)
– Denver (SolarTAC – NREL)– Orlando (UCF – FSEC)
Soft Cost : The Critical Issue
“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solarpay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system.”
- Secretary ChuSecretary Chu
BOS-Soft Costs Will Determine the Future of Solar!!
~$6.50 $7 2010 PV System Prices
BOS-non-hardwareBOS-hardwareP l
~$5.50
$5
$6
$/W
DC)
Power electronicsModule
Permitting, Inspection ~$4.00
$3
$4
m P
rice
($ g, p
and Interconnection
Customer Acquisition
$2
$3
PV
Sys
tem Customer Acquisition
Installation
$0
$1
P
Financing
34
Residential Commercial Utility
More Paperwork = Higher Cost
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Rooftop Solar Challenge
CA NJThe Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV
permitting requirements =permitting requirements• 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection
standards and net metering programs• 50 states developing interconnection
CA WI
≠
Uniform processesstandards and net metering rules
The Solution ≠The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500 000+ population)
≠across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.
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La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA
Plug-and-PlayVision : PV as an ApplianceVision : PV as an Appliance
No permitting Easy installation Seamless grid integration
Future (Smart) Home Future (Smart) Grid Future (Smart) City
Utility Control Center
• Smart outlet• Smart circuit• Smart breaker panel• Smart appliances
• Distributed generation• Two-way power flow• Communication and
controlRi h i f ti
• Integrated grid and city planning
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pp• Home area network (HAN) • Rich energy information
and transactions• Microgrid
$2/W SunShot Residential Prize
In Germany, residential PV systems are sold at ~$2.44/Wy, y $ RFI on the street that asks the question “Can we have
residential PV systems at $2/W?” At the scale of about 1000 homes (~5MW), demonstrate that
$2/W (no incentives) can be achieved– Grid parity at average US residential ratesGrid parity at average US residential rates– Local, state, utility processes would need to be streamlined– Installation would need to be streamlined
$5M P i fi hi hi $5M Prize to first team to achieve this– $3M Prize to second team/region– $2M Prize to third team/region
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g
38
Ad Lucem Basic R&D for Market Transformation Pathways
Workshop: Feb 17 2012 Berkeley CA
Overview
Workshop: Feb. 17, 2012, Berkeley, CA
RECOMMENDATION 4 4: DOE along with NSF should• Basic R&D incorporating the human
aspect of our energy challenges can spur social, economic, and behavioral
RECOMMENDATION 4-4: DOE, along with NSF, should initiate a multidisciplinary social science research program to examine the U.S. energy technology spur social, economic, and behavioral
innovation • Tools from complexity science allows us
to probe such issues
innovation ecosystem, including its actors, functions, processes, and outcomes. This research should be fully integrated into DOE’s energy research and applied
Potential Research Topics
u y teg ated to O s e e gy esea c a d app edprograms.
• Information and technology diffusion on social networks• Mechanisms underlying the rate of technological progress• Characterizing spatiotemporal adoption patterns• Effective and efficient communication strategies
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g• Strengthening feedback processes between adopters and innovators
The spread of obesity in a large social network N. A. Christakis et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 357 (2007)
Creating a New Solar Eco-System : Hubs
• ~$125M over 5 years• Strengthen U.S. PV manufacturing & supply chain• East coast: Sematech/CNSE
40• West coast: SVTC, Stanford/Berkeley
GEARED - Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deploymentgy p y
Problem: Electric Grid workforce is aging – mass g g
retirements in 5-15 years Lack of skilled personnel conflicts with need
for a new “smart grid”g Center for Energy Workforce Development
estimates the need for 92,000 new grid workers, including ~18,000 engineers, g , g
Goal: Establish University programs to train a
network of grid engineering STEM professionals , ready for a 21st century
bl
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renewable economy
SunShot Funding Philosophy : PV$5 71/W
Low Cost Power ElectronicsSolar ADEPT (ARPA-E)$5
$6
WD
C)
$0.30$0 27
$5.71/W$0.42$0.46
Reducing BOS Hardware CostsHigh Penetration PV
Reducing Soft CostsRooftop Solar ChallengePV Made in the USAImproving PV EfficiencySolar A PT (ARPA )
SEGIS-ACSunShot Incubator
$4
$5
rice
($/
W $0.27$
$2.69
High Penetration PVBOS-X (Extreme BOS)
SEGIS-AC
Rooftop Solar ChallengeBOS – Software
Plug and PlayInstructor Training Network
S l F i
PV Made in the USAPV Manufacturing Initiative
SUNPATH PV Supply Chain
Improving PV EfficiencyNext-Gen PV
F-PACEBRIDGE
$3
Syst
em P
$2.04
$0 59
Solar ForecastingIncubator for Soft Costs
SunShot Prize: $2/Wmore to come…
PV Supply ChainRegional Testing Centers
SunShot IncubatorSunShot Incubator
$1
$2
Inst
alle
d S $0.59
$1.02
$1.50/W$2.15
$0.12$0.19
$0
$1 $0.65
$0.54
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System Price2010
Power Electronics
Cost Reductions
BOS Hardware Soft BOS
Efficiency Improvements
Module Manufacturing
SunShot Target
A i h th t it t l d th ld America has the opportunity to lead the world in clean energy technologies and provide a
foundation for our future prosperity.
We remain the most innovative country in the world ... but “Invented in America” is not
d hgood enough to guarantee our prosperity.
“Invented in America, Made in America,Sold World-wide”
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