Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008* Paulo Ceppi, Simon C. Scherrer , Andreas M. Fischer, Christof Appenzeller Federal of Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 16 July 2010 11 th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh UK * submitted to the International Journal of Climatology
Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008* Paulo Ceppi, Simon C. Scherrer , Andreas M. Fischer, Christof Appenzeller Federal of Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 16 July 2010 11 th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh UK - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008*
Paulo Ceppi, Simon C. Scherrer, Andreas M. Fischer, Christof Appenzeller
Federal of Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
16 July 201011th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh UK
* submitted to the International Journal of Climatology
2 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
MotivationTemperature trends: The hallmark of climate change
IPCC 2007, WG1
seasonal differences different processes on different spatial scales
local climate change = large scale + local processes
new Swiss grid
3 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
Outline
Geographical setting, input data and gridding
What are the linear temperature trends (yearly / seasonal)?
Can regional climate models explain the observed trends?
What is the trend contribution of
… large scale circulation?
… local factors?
Conclusions
4 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
Geographical setting and input data
91 homogeneous station series, 1959-2008 station altitude range: 203 to 3580 m asl ~2 km x 2 km gridded data set
Edinburgh
Switzerland
5 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
Monthly anomaly griddingclimatological distance λ
spatial interpolation of altitude corrected residuals influence of topography determined independently every month
C. Frei, MeteoSwiss
valley setting
λ = 0.01 λ = 0.05 λ = 0.1
summit setting
6 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
Gridded temperature anomaliesExample December 2009
good representation of local/altitude effects!
C. Frei, MeteoSwiss
topography
7 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]
Yearly temperature trends1959-2008 (°C/10yrs)
average OLS trend: +0.35°C/10yrs
stronger trends than in global mean (+0.13°C/10yrs)
highly significant trends everywhere (p < 0.0005)
small spatial variability
no altitude dependence
8 Revisiting Swiss temperature trends | 11th IMSC, 16 July 2010, Edinburgh [email protected]