Revised Group 4_COG Analysis (Final)

Background of Zamboanga Siege

COG (MNLF Perspective)

Strategic

Operational

Justifications

Conclusion

Chronology of Events:

29 Jun 13 Nur Misuari conducted MNLF leadership assembly; Declared that he is against the Bangsamoro framework initiated by MILF

o Present in the assembly were Ustadz Jain Jali and an alleged UN rep who declared that:

He can call up thousands of UN Forces to be led by USA if MNLF conflict would erupt again He can facilitate the direct line talk of MISUARI with the UN Secretary General if MNLF will declare

Independence during the conflict

08 Jul 13 MOL 500 MNLF members marched in Lamitan City as part of their peace consultation caravan exercise in Basilan.

25 Jul13 MOL 300 MNLF fighters consolidated at their base camps in Zambo Sibugay for the declaration of Bangsamoro Independence and raising MNLF flag

MNLF is a rebel group founded by Nur Misuari in 1969

MNLF-GPH Peace Process 1976 1996

Tripoli Agreement in 1977

Final Peace Agreement in 1996

26 Jul13 MNLF general assembly conducted at Alicia, ZSP attended by MOL 200 MNLF members

29 Jul13 Misuaris supposed declaration of BangsamoroIndependence in Talipao, Sulu did not materialize

12 Aug 13 Misuari declared Bangsamoro Independence to almost 700 MNLF members/supporters in Talipao, Sulu and stated: Im declaring this day, August 12, 2013 as Bangsamoro Republic

Independence Day.

13 Aug 13 Nur Misuari declared independence again in Indanan, Sulu (the pronouncement of independence in 12 Aug has not

created so much impact)

21Aug 13 MNLF Senior Leaders Forum was held in Zambo City attended by prominent MNLF personalities, ARMM Governor and

Dir Yosup Paradji of OPAPP with the purpose of sustaining the

peace accord between the govt and MNLF

31Aug - 01Sep13 A convergence forum for development in MNLF communities was held in Zambo City

presided by USEC Lorena of OPAPP and attended by ARMM

officials and 100 top ranking MNLF leaders

5-8 Sep 13 MNLF Force Build-up Misuaris armed loyalists started massing up and moving out

of Sulu

Fighters from Jolo and Basilan arrived in Zambo City 7 pump boats with HPFAs arrived in Zambo City.

9 Sep 13 Armed MNLF were seen moving on foot from Brgy Santa Barbara heading towards Brgy Santa Catalina,

Zambo City. Initial fighting started on this day until 27 Sep

28 Sep 23 Oct 13 Post conflict activities 23 Oct 13 Military intervention was finally concluded

through a Turn-over Ceremony between JTF ZAMPELAN and

Zamboanga City Govt

6MILITARY MNLF CIV

KILLED/KIA 26 206 12

WOUNDED/WIA/ 194 70

CAPTURED/APPREHENDED 270

SURRENDERED 24

RESCUED HOSTAGES 195

LOSSES/RECOVERED 262 HPFAs AND 20 LPFAs

IDP 125,000

HOMES BURNED 10,000 approx

GOVT COST

80-100

BILLION PHP

Center of Gravity (COG) Critical Capabilities (CC)

Critical Requirements (CR)Critical Vulnerabilities (CV)

Means that are considered crucial enablers for

the adversarys COG to function and essential to the accomplishment of the adversarys assumed objective(s) (VERB)

Those essential conditions, resources, and

means for a critical capability to be fully

operational (NOUN)

Aspects or components of the adversarys critical requirements which are deficient or vulnerable

to direct or indirect attack that will create

decisive or significant effects disproportionate to

the military resources applied (NOUN)

Source of power that provides freedom of

action, physical and moral strength, and will

to act (NOUN)

Critical Factor Analysis Model

End State/ Objectives: Assess Friendly and Enemy

CC

CRCV

1. Field Forces

(WMC/PNP)

2. Leadership

3. Support System

4. Infrasturcture

5. Population

Operational Environment: ZAMBASULTA End State: Take-over and control of Zamboanga City

1 32 4 5

o Control of Airport/Seaport

o Employ Mil/PNP Forces

o Use of Communication facilities

o Control of Commerce/Economic activities

o Control of the Seat of Government

o Support of Local & International Media

o Control of Health Facilities

o Support of the populace

o Manpower/Workforce (S)

o People of Zamboanga (P)

o Banks, Utilities services, communications, (S)

o Critical Infrastructure / Airport/Seaport/Power

Grids/Water Plants/ Road network (S)

o Military/police/other law enforcement agencies (F)

o Seat of Govt/Military Leadership (L) Mayor Salazar COMWESMINCOM

o Command and Control systems and facilities (L)

o Peace and Order (L/F)

o Leadership

o Population

o Infrastructure

o Support System

Commo Logistics Finance Work Force

o Field Forces

OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT (ZAMBASULTA)

ZAMBASULTA is the home to several Muslims Tribes in the region. It is where most of the MNLF

members and fighters loyal to Nur Misuari resides. MNLF are very familiar with the terrain.

OPERATIONAL CENTER OF GRAVITY:

The Western Mindanao Command (WESMINCOM),

based in Zamboanga City, is the primary instrument of the

national government to protect and defend the western

Mindanao from major threats, both external and internal.

Thus, it is the Operational COG. In the conduct of internal

security operations, it supports the PNP and other law

enforcement agencies. The fall of WESMINCOM will mean

the fall of ZAMBASULTA.

CC

CRCV

1 32 4 5

1. Leadership

2. Population

3. Infrastructure

4. Support System

5. Field Forces

End State: Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is composed of a federation of four sub-states, namely: (1) Substate of

Mindanao, (2) Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian

State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic States. Compostela will be a Socialist State.

o Control of the Regional Centers

o Control of Economic Centers

o Control of Technology Hub

o Employ Military and police forces

o Support of the populace

o Control of rich biodiversity and natural resources

o Geographic Location Zamboanga City serves as converging point

o Functioning local government

o Public utilities

o Critical Infrastructure power plants/grid, air&sea ports, roads, bridges, telecom facilities

o Command and Control systems & facilities

o Logistics

o Manpower/workforce

o Military, police & other law enforcement agencies

o Global and regional alliances

o Population/Consituents

o Media

o Leadership/Governance

o Population

o Infrastructure

o Support System

o Field Forces

Strategic Environment: Bangsamoro Land

STRATEGIC CENTER OF GRAVITY:

Leadership and Control of Zamboanga City as the MNLF sees

the city as the symbolic center of power of the national

government in western Mindanao. It is also the most

accessible among the possible targeted highly-urbanized

cities in which to conduct their offensive activities. Seizing it

and declaring the Bangsamoro Independence (and raising

their flag) in this city would attract national and international

attention, thus advancing their objective of secession from

the RP.

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT (BANGSAMORO LAND SULU, MINDANAO, PALAWAN, SABAH)

- are home to a sizeable Muslim population- is considered the agricultural basin of the Philippines

- sacred home of Raja Bantogen the Meranaw largest non-Muslim and Subanon Tribe;

No determined casualty criteria before disengaging

Blend-in with the civilians

Take civilians as hostage and use as shield

-The MNLF will pursue the attainment of its end state whatever it cost

- No determined casualty criteria before disengaging

- There were left with no options when they were isolated/surrounded by the government forces in

land and at sea but to burn houses/buildings, take civilians as hostages and use as shield, blend with

them to escape from the area.

MNLF Government

Operational End

State

Take-over and control of Zamboanga City Destroy the MNLF forces at

Zamboanga City and prevent

the escalation of hostilities to

other parts of Mindanao with

minimal collateral damage

Strategic End State Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is

composed of a federation of four sub-states,

namely: (1) Substate of Mindanao, (2)

Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of

Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of

Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian

State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic

States. Compostela will be a Socialist State

Prevent the MNLF from getting

outside support and in gaining

media mileage

End States compared:

The MNLF failed to achieve their operational and strategic end state while the government

achieved its end state. However, the collateral damage of the siege exceeded the expectations.

History is written by the victors as such,

rebellion can only be justified if it wins...