Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts ETF3600 Quantitative Models for Business Research Lecture 1: Introduction & Review March 1, 2013
Nov 08, 2014
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
ETF3600 Quantitative Models for BusinessResearch
Lecture 1: Introduction & Review
March 1, 2013
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Introduction
Motivation
Unit Synopsis
Topic 1: ConceptsBasic MathematicsBasic Statistics
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
ETF3600/5600 - Quantitative Models for BusinessResearch
Lecturer: Dr. Kompal Sinha [[email protected]]
Lecture Room: CA H/H235
Monday 4:00pm - 6:00pm.
Tutorial
Tutorials: Monday 3:00-4:00pmCA K/K101
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Quantitative Models and Business Research
“...[marketing] research is the collection, processing, and analysis of
information on topics relevant to marketing. It begins with problem
definition and ends with a report and action recommendations. ”
- Lehmann et al (1998)
Collect data ⇒ Collate data ⇒ Analyse data ⇒ Interpretfinding & Decision making
Data collection and storage techniques have advanced inrecent times.
Growing market competition required analysing these hugedatabases:
Data analysis is more than number crunching.For effective policy making it is important to efficientlytranslate technical information to effective decision making.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Quantitative Models for Business Research
Decision making = Expert Judgement + Quantitative Analysis
Decision making = ω1 Expert Judgement + ω2 QuantitativeAnalysisω1 + ω1 = 1
Quantitative analysis provide basic quantitative concepts andskills that form the base of knowledge essential toquantitative-decision-making professionals in businessenvironment.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Quantitative Models for Business ResearchWhy study ETF 3600/5600
“.There is no such thing as qualitative data. Everything is either 0 or 1. ”
- Fred Kerlinger
Traditional regression tools ”simple regression models” usefulwhen response variable is continuous or measured atcontinuous intervals: GDP, Sales, profits.Many salient variables in business research, social science,biomedical science are not ”continuous”, i.e., they are eitherqualitative or limited in their range:
Revealed preference data: sales and brand choiceCategorical: ”yes” or ”no”; ”employed” or ”unemployed”These variables are limited in their range because of someunderlying stochastic choice mechanism:
”agree”, ”disagree”, ”uncertain”;”poor”, ”good” ”excellent”
The general regression models are inappropriate and givemisleading answers - poor implications and ineffectivedecisions
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Quantitative Models for Business Research - Unit Synopsis
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Quantitative Models for Business Research - Unit Synopsis
This unit will discuss models that are appropriate when thedependent variable is binary, ordinal, nominal, counted,censored, truncated, latent.
Using E-Views to analyse data.
Theoretical concepts with empirical applications for themodels:
The nature of modelType of data for which it is relevantType of information one can get from estimating it:
Probability of given valueExpected valueMarginal effectsOdds RatioDiscrete changeInterpretation
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Lecture Topics
Week 2: Review of regression analysis;Week 3: 3.1 Introduction to maximum likelihood
3.2 Models with binary dependent variable (1)Introduction, Linear Probability Model
Week 4: Models with binary dependent variable (2)4.1 Logit model4.2 Probit model.
Week 5: Models with binary dependent variable (3)5.1 Probit model (cont’)5.2 Inference.
Week 6: Models with binary dependent variable (4)6.1 Latent variable for binary dep. variable.Model with ordered multinomial dependent variable6.2 The ordered probit model
Week 7: 7.1 The ordered probit model (cont’)Models with unordered multinomial dependent variable (1)7.2 Introduction: Logit model for multiple choices
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Lecture Topics
Week 8: Models with unordered multinomial dependent variable (2)8.1 Logit model for multiple choices (cont’)8.2 Post estimation analysis
Week 9: Models with unordered multinomial dependent variable (3)9.1 Example for conditional logit model9.2 Post estimation analysis
Week 10: Models for count data (1)10.1 The model using Poisson distribution10.2 The problems of truncation and censoring
Week 11: Models for count data (2)11.1 A test for overdispersion11.2 The negative binomial and the zero modified countmodels
Week 12: The Tobit regression model (if time permits)Summary revisionInformation on Examination
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Studying this unitHow to study this unit
Text Prescribed text: The prescribed text below is available fromthe bookshop and the library
1 Long, J.S. (1997), Regression Models for Categorical andLimited Dependent Variables, SAGE Publications, London.(referred to as Long)
Recommended texts: Useful reference texts include1 Franses, P. H. and R. Paap (2003), Quantitative Models in
Marketing Research, Cambridge University press: Cambridge.(referred to as FP)
2 Powers, D.A. and Y. Xie (2000), Statistical Methods forCategorical Data Analysis, Academic Press, London. (referredto as Powers)
Come to lectures
Prepare for tutorials
Attend tutorials
Ask for help
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Assessment Criteria∗†
Inclass Test 5%Assignments:Assignment I 12%Assignment II 18%Final examination 65%
† The final exam performance is the hurdle requirement for thisunit and where you fail the unit solely because of failure to satisfy
the hurdle requirement a final mark of 45 will be returned.∗ Please read unit outline for details.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
ETF3600/5600: Quantitative Models for BusinessResearch
Topic 1: Some fundamental conceptsReading: Wooldridge Appendix A-C,
Franses and Paap Appendices A.1 and A.2Hill, Griffiths and Lim Appendices A and B.
References Wooldridge, J.M. (2006), Introductory Econometrics: AModern Approach, Thomson Higher Education: USA.Hill, R.C., W.E. Griffiths and G. Lim (2008), Principles ofEconometrics, WileySons: USAFranses, P. H. and R. Paap (2003), Quantitative Models inMarketing Research, Cambridge University press: Cambridge.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Topic 1: Some fundamental conceptsOutline
1 Basic Mathematics
1.1.1 Linear function1.1.2 Nonlinear function1.1.3 Derivatives1.1.4 Optimization1.1.5 Matrices1.1.6 Elasticity
2 Basic Statistics
2.1.1 Random Variable2.2.2 Probability distribution and density function (pdf)2.2.3 Cumulative distribution function (cdf)2.2.4 Normal distribution2.2.5 Standard logistic distribution
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic Mathematics1.1.1 Linear function
A linear relationship between two variables
y = α + βx (1)
where α = intercept, β = slope
β =∆y
∆x(2)
where ∆ is a very small change
b =∂y
∂x(3)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic Mathematics.1.1.2 Non linear function
1.1.2 A nonlinear function is used frequently are quadraticfunction, cubic function and higher order function.
Quadratic : y = α + βx + γx2 (4)
Cubic : y = α + βx + γx2 + φx3 (5)
For a given point on the curve, the slope is the slope of thetangent to the line at that point.
It is calculated by finding ∂y∂x for a given x.
A tangent line that is steeper has higher slope.
For a nonlinear function, slope changes for different values ofx.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic Mathematics1.1.2 Non linear function (2)
Some Useful functions
y = β1 + β21
x(6a)
ln(y) = β1 + β2ln(x) (6b)
ln(y) = β1 + β2x (6c)
y = β1 + β2ln(x) (6d)
For useful nonlinear functions see Hill, Griffiths and Lim page 471.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic Mathematics1.1.3: Slope of a curve and differentiation
Considery = f (x) (7)
First derivative is = dydx = y
′is derivative of y with respect to
x.The dy
dx is the original notation used by Leibniz; the y′
is theLagrange’s notation.
The process of finding dydx is called differentiation.
Second derivative is to take derivative twice or y′′
.
d
dx(
dy
dx) =
d2y
dx2(8)
First derivative gives the slope and second derivative gives thechange in the slope when x changes.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsSome Differentiation Rules
Product rule (Leibniz rule): Consider y = uv
d
dx(uv) = u.
dv
dx+ v .
du
dx(9)
Quotient rule: Consider y = uv
d
dx
u
v=
1
v2∗ (v
du
dx− u
dv
dx) (10)
Reciprocal rule: Consider y = 1/f (x)
y ′(x) =−1
[f (x)]2df (x)
dx(11)
Addition and Subtraction rule: Consider y(x) = u(x)± v(x)
dy
dx=
du
dx± dv
dx(12)
Power rule: Consider y = xn
dy/dx = nxn−1 (13)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsDifferentiation Rules: Constant and Exponential function
Derivative of a constant is zero:Consider y = k
dy
dx=
dk
dx= 0 (14)
Exponential Function: Consider y = ex
dy
dx=
dex
dx= ex (15)
Consider y = kef (x)
dy
dx= k
def (x)
dx= kef (x)
df (x)
dx(16)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsSome Differentiation Rules: Logarithmic function
Logarithmic FunctionConsider y = ln(x)
dy
dx=
dln(x)
dx=
1
xdx =
1
x(17)
Consider y = lnf (x)
dy
dx=
1
f (x)
df (x)
dx(18)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsOptimization
Optimization requires finding the extreme point (maximumand minimum value) of a quantity, or finding when maximumand minimum occur.
What to minimize costwant to maximize revenue.
Optimization method:
An extreme point for a curve is where dydx = 0
An extreme point can be a maximum or a minimum
Maximum if :d2y
dx2≤ 0 (19)
Minimum if:d2y
dx2≥ 0 (20)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsMatrices
Matrices are rectangular arrays of numbers or symbols. Thedimension of a matrix is stated as the number rows bynumber of columns.
Identity matrix is a square matrix in which every element iszero except those on the main diagonals whose values are one.
The transpose of a matrix is the matrix obtained by writingthe row of any matrix as columns.
Matrix addition or subtraction: To add or subtract two ormore matrices all matrices must have exactly the samedimensions. All elements of the two matrices can be added asany scalar.
Matrix multiplication: Matrix A multiply by matrix B as AB isonly possible if number of rows in A is the same as number ofcolumns in B.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic MathematicsElasticity
How change in one variable affects another variable i.e., theresponsiveness of one variable with respect to another.Consider two variables:
y = f (x) (21)
elasy ,x =%∆y
%∆x=
y
x
∂y
∂x=∂lny
∂lnx(22)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Basic Statistics (Wooldridge Appendix B)Random variable: A variable is a random variable if the valueit may take is random or unpredictable or uncertain.Discrete versus continuous random variable:
A discrete random variable has a finite number of possiblevalues.A continuous random variable has a continuum of possiblevalues.
Probability distribution is a list of all possible values of therandom variable and their corresponding probabilities.Probability distribution can be presented by
1 table (only for discrete random variable),2 equation or3 graph.
Consider k possible values x1, x2,K ..., xi ,K , xk . LetPr(x = xi ) be probability that x = xiProbability must satisfy two criteria:
1 0 ≤ Pr(x = xi ) ≤ 1 and2 Pr(x = xi ) = 1 .
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Measures in Quantitative Statistics
Mean
E (x) =k∑
i=1
Pr(x = xi ) = µ (23)
VarianceVar(x) = E(xi − E (x))2 =
∑ki=1(xi − E (x))2Pr(xi ) = σ2
Standard Deviationσ =√
Var (24)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
2.2.2/2.2.3 Density Functions
PDF Probability distribution is known as probability densityfunction (pdf)
f (x) = Pr(x = xi ) (25)
If X is a continuous r.v then pdf of X is the function f (x)such that for two numbers
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) =
∫ b
af (x)dx (26)
CDF Cumulative distribution function (cdf) is related to pdf.
F (x) = Pr(x ≤ xi ) =
∫ x
−∞f (s)ds (27)
The cdf curve relates the range of possible values of x and theprobability that Pr(x ≤ xi )
The curve starts from zero when x is small and ends at 1when x is large. CDF has S shape.
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
2.2.4 Normal Distribution
A normal random variable is a continuous random variablethat can take on any values.
The pdf curve has bell shape and symmetric around the mean.−∞ < x <∞
f (x) =1√
2πσ2exp[−(x − µ)2/2σ2] (28)
where E (x) = µ, var(x) = σ2 and π =3.14159
The cdf is defined as
F (x) = Φ(x) =
∫ x
−∞(2π)−1/2exp(−t2/2)dt (29)
Outline Introduction Motivation Unit Synopsis Topic 1: Concepts
Standard Logistic Distribution
The pdf is:
f (x) = λ(x) =exp(x)
(1 + exp(x))2(30)
where (−∞ ≤ x ≤ ∞)
The cdf is:
F (x) = Λ(x) =exp(x)
1 + exp(x)(31)